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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

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Posted this sept 2016, for significant tops and bottoms potential. Nothing more. This is why i was saying in aug 2018 and jan/feb2019 about generally up through may and surprising people. Also, why i stuck to my guns in April 2018 calling major top, when everyone thought breakout was "foregone conclusion".

I think it's gonna be a nice poopsie next to scare people. Next meaningful intermediate direction. Still long term bullish. Could be buy the dip moment coming if that's something you're into.

20190614_173443.jpg
 

Zed

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We closed over 1340 for the day, the shorter term charts are looking like a break up and retest of that level now as support. The beat back was a little harsh but the situation isn't totally broken yet.

Weekly Gold.

We have a spinning top. It is over a commonly drawn trend line yet below that commonly percived1350/60 resistance area. The positions are balanced which means that once we break up or down there is going to be fuel for a sharp move. Spinning tops can be followed by big red/green candles if the battle is resolved quickly. So we are on support and below resistance slugging it out, might not be pretty here. A decent thump came our way but we aren't done, yet.




Spinning Top
Since buyers and sellers both pushed the price, but couldn't maintain it, the pattern shows indecision
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinning-top.asp

AU-W-20190615-1.png
 

jelly

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I always like Rick Rule's videos. Here's a recent one he did that I think is an excellent overview of the current market standing:
 

Zed

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FOMC meeting next week and fomc statement will dictate where this is heading.
Cut priced in but it may not happen. Could get interesting.
 

Strawboss

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Cut priced in but it may not happen. Could get interesting.
Maybe a headfake move by the Fed - saying that the economy continues to be strong and no hike. Market drops a quick 10% or so and then Fed reverses in July...

Using louky's 1305 gold price...perhaps we see it pushed down to 1280ish for a week or few to get everyone bearish and then BAM it reverses higher?

Who the hell knows anymore...

I still remember a time when this shit was actually priced based on fundamentals...

Quaint times those were...
 
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I have been following gold and silver for some time. I am thinking that the Feds want gold to rise BUT not silver. Feds sees gold as a Tier 1 asset as an alternative "to pay up now" if borrowings comes short - the debt ceiling limit. It doesn't mean that silver isn't off the table. There are pressures to silver due to less recoveries from the ground and then all it takes a little of moo cookies to cause it to moon rocket.
 

Strawboss

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I have been following gold and silver for some time. I am thinking that the Feds want gold to rise BUT not silver. Feds sees gold as a Tier 1 asset as an alternative "to pay up now" if borrowings comes short - the debt ceiling limit. It doesn't mean that silver isn't off the table. There are pressures to silver due to less recoveries from the ground and then all it takes a little of moo cookies to cause it to moon rocket.
There is a practical upside limit on the silver price...

There is a tremendous amount of silver in landfills all over the planet - contained within all sorts of stuff that has been trashed. Miniscule amounts of silver - but LOTS of it.

If the price of silver were to rise high enough - I am very confident that it wouldnt be too difficult to develop methods of reclaiming the silver - which would flood the market with new supplies...

Its just a guess - but I reckon if silver ever got in the neighborhood of $300 per ounce - that is when you would see reclamation projects the world over...
 
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"Its just a guess - but I reckon if silver ever got in the neighborhood of $300 per ounce - that is when you would see reclamation projects the world over..."

Wishful thinking, we'll strike rich if that hits that magical number. Anything is possible. Not saying $1,000 silver I'm not sure if machinery or robotics will get to the trash soon enough and maybe some landfills are off limits.
 
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Interesting, real estate tends to appreciates 3% a year. So going as far back as 2001 in range around 38, I think realistic price would be about 49.6 today. I'm using 3% rate and it could be said it has be higher but I'm not banking on it. The other thing is that house prices back in 1998 to early 2003 were cheap.

From stats: "The price of existing homes increased by 5.4% annually from 1968 to 2009, on average. (Natl. Assoc. of Realtors, p.1, p.2) Notice that this is the same figure as new homes by the Census Bureau for a similar period. Once we adjust for the fact that homes get bigger over time, the annual rate is 3.7%."
 

Zed

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No rockets, no beach balls, nada...

The place feels a bit flat...

This is good.
 

Zed

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Zed

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We are a little off down here today, not as bad as I thought it may be. We C how the end of the day goes!
 

Zed

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We are a little off down here today, not as bad as I thought it may be. We C how the end of the day goes!
Ended up essentially flat but in the green.
 

Zed

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ASX Goldies +~0.5% Green on today's opening trade. Not spooked by the Asian flu we caught last night. I think that they are betting that the rate announcement, whatever comes, will play exactly the same way just for differing reasons.

I think we have a potential watershed moment here.
 

Zed

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ASX Goldies +~0.5% Green on today's opening trade. Not spooked by the Asian flu we caught last night. I think that they are betting that the rate announcement, whatever comes, will play exactly the same way just for differing reasons.

I think we have a potential watershed moment here.
Getting stronger but one of my stable hit some good pay dirt so that is putting a shine on things.
 

Zed

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My ASX Goldies put in a good day @ close. +~3% across the board.

Combination of good company news and a positive outlook.

Gold popping now so it looks justified at the moment.
 

Strawboss

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Its gonna be all about the Fed tomorrow...

I wouldnt be surprised to see gold push up to louky's 1359 and then hover near it in the lead up to tomorrows "Fed presentation" at 2pm... and then its anyone's guess what happens...

The economic data is sure pointing to a pretty significant economic slowdown and the market is aggressively pricing in multiple rate cuts...if the Fed plays along with this mantra...I think gold will push higher up and through louky's number (after cratering to clean out all the weak longs). If the Fed doesnt cut rates...and if it takes a "wait and see" approach instead - I could see gold rising to maybe 1380 to suck in the weak longs and then getting monkey hammered...

But - as usual...who the hell knows...surely not I.
 

Zed

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...and that is with the dollar stronger as well. Interesting...
If "the theory" plays it is going to puk with a good portion of the goldbug camps minds. They are so wed to the idea of a weak USD! It will/would be fun to see how they reconcile the whole thing.

Hmmmmmmm.... I wonder what the Comex has in store. I think they are putting horseshoes into their boxing gloves right about now.
 

Zed

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savvydon

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If "the theory" plays it is going to puk with a good portion of the goldbug camps minds. They are so wed to the idea of a weak USD! It will/would be fun to see how they reconcile the whole thing.

Hmmmmmmm.... I wonder what the Comex has in store. I think they are putting horseshoes into their boxing gloves right about now.
The comex has been putting a little something something into their boxing gloves all throughout this recent run up at 1350+. This morning has been a textbook example. They continue to control the narrative/fight... until their arms get too tired from being weighted down. Then comes the knockout punch.
 

Zed

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National Gold backed crypto. Has he been reading our thread? LOL
 

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Goldhedge

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National Gold backed crypto. Has he been reading our thread? LOL
So would you go for the real deal or the ersatz?