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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

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Louky, do you think we can make it there before our first correction?
Gold may correct and silver not so much. I wouldnt be surprised to see silver around 18 before any "scary" pull back. Then a double top in the 20's or possibly new high, medium term. Gold sentiment is off the reservation and silver doesnt have banks piled in short, like gold. So i'm not expecting it to get hammered this time, but who knows.

Should outperform as well after gold corrects, like i've stated previously.
 
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Goldhedge

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savvydon

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Gold may correct and silver not so much. I wouldnt be surprised to see silver around 18 before any "scary" pull back. Then a double top in the 20's or possibly new high, medium term. Gold sentiment is off the reservation and silver doesnt have banks piled in short, like gold. So i'm not expecting it to get hammered this time, but who knows.

Should outperform as well after gold corrects, like i've stated previously.
So far this morning gold hanging on but slipping as silver gets monkey hammered. This has the fingerprint of bankster/cartel trying to control market direction/sentiment using silver as a proxy. This has pushed the GSR over 91. I feel like today is an attempt to truncate the POG explosion that this week was by pouring a little cold water on things in an effort to keep the move off the public radar.
 

Goldhedge

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keep the move off the public radar.
Gold has always been the crazy uncle in the cottage out back and they'd like to keep it that way...
 

Zed

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Nice week... but we are into a resistance patch here. We may still trade up next week but it should be about the high in the short term.
 

Zed

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So the next question to answer is how far up has support come?

AU-W-20190622-1.png
 

Zed

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Dont have time to watch gary, but dollar cracked the 200 day....i posted last week all those bounces off it. Bigger picture it's headed to 80's with a spike or blow off still possible i suppose

View attachment 134244
Short term it looks oversold and divergent.

I'm not sure about the US dollar bear idea, I can't get my head around the fundamentals unless you default. Otherwise I think that USD is looking like the best house in a shitty street.
 

savvydon

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Nice week... but we are into a resistance patch here. We may still trade up next week but it should be about the high in the short term.
I couldn't resist. I bought a small batch of cheap July GDX puts. Now we may see this thing shoot straight up, but with an RSI over 80 I would expect some consolidation. There is a big gap at 24 and some congestion in the 23 area, so I decided to use 23 as my target. Contracts were cheap and bought with some of the profit from yesterday's windfall.

screenshot_99.png
 
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savvydon

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So the next question to answer is how far up has support come?

View attachment 134299
I'd love to get your take and some of the other strong chart guys around here on this. Personally, I hope to see 1359 hold. First, because there is an awful lot of traffic around this number in all three years preceding this one. Second, because that is the bottom of Louky's box and I want to continue to believe that he is da man!
 

Zed

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I'd love to get your take and some of the other strong chart guys around here on this. Personally, I hope to see 1359 hold. First, because there is an awful lot of traffic around this number in all three years preceding this one. Second, because that is the bottom of Louky's box and I want to continue to believe that he is da man!
I dunno, in my view it has stepped down in rough $10 increments from ~1400 odd to ~1340 odd over the last 6/7 years. Anyone of the peaks in this long consolidation could offer support. The higher support kicks in the better off we are. I doubt we will see 1340 tested again, a 1350 break would be a bit of a psych out for the market so I don't wanna see lower. Louky's 1359 is a good candidate. I want to see how this unfolds, we need to back the internal overbought indications right off, things like RSI need to come much closer to 50 odd. If we get a sharp correction then there is $50 in that... a slow burn high level consolidation (ideal IMO) and we stay over say ~1380 give or take.

I try and stay away from prediction, lets watch, this market appears to have changed its character here so I'm not sure what to expect from the pauses.
 

Zed

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I bought a small batch of cheap July GDX puts
Yup... that gap needs to be filled and tested. Standard market MO should see you rewarded... unless this is a true, and rare, runaway move.
 

Zed

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And in that case I'll still be happy to water and feed my long beleaguered portfolio of miner stocks.
Yes.

It's like owning silver and shorting SLV on the runups... most of the time you are going to be better off and if you are not then, really, what do you care! The core position is looking good.
 

Uglytruth

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If we get a huge rise in metal prices what do you think the top target is and what do you think the new floor will be for both gold and silver?
 

Zed

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If we get a huge rise in metal prices what do you think the top target is and what do you think the new floor will be for both gold and silver?
I don't want a short term huge rise... life will become too shitty if that happens.

What are you calling huge?
 

savvydon

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5K & $75 Then a pullback to? That would be the new floor.
I have no imagination to conjure absolute figures, but I do think that if POG goes to 5k then silver will go a lot higher than $75. Probably several hundred. I think by then the ratio collapses as everyone scrambles for whatever PMs they can get their hands on.
 

Zed

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If we get a huge rise in metal prices what do you think the top target is and what do you think the new floor will be for both gold and silver?
For this next move $5400 and $199 are my top numbers.

$4300 and $158 are my highly probable numbers.

They are just fibo projections based on historic moves, no magic. In reality I will watch as it unfolds. FWIW the same method nailed the $48 move in silver.

... but what do I know?
 

Zed

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$158 oz silver would be nice lol.
It has precedent in terms of its relationship to historic pricing, as does $199... I would expect +158 to be a hot, fast move. Very difficult to catch if you are in physical.

Sounds like dream doesn't it?

I posted the $48 silver target here prior to the 2011 run up...

G3 called me a muther f*cker before, during and after that run up!

I don't know why fibo numbers seem to be valid for price projections, but they often seem to be about correct.

DYODD etc.

You know, what do I know?
 
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Goldhedge

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Zed

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What's the next benchmark?
Then the numbers were 44/48 now they are 158/199. I've had that target for years now since just after the bust from 2011.
 
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Zed

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My ASX Goldies off about 0.8% so far today. A little soft all day despite POG +1400, we are waiting for US trade. We are beginning to discount a near term top IMO.