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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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Watching the 1HR chart, will post one later. Volume is dwindling, price is compressing, we are setting up for another move. So... which way? Hmmmmmm....
 

Zed

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Numbers look to me like there should be a epic beat down. Let’s see if it is different this time.
Yes, which will be the way until it isn't... then the response in the other direction can also be epic. BUT, its summer, so meh. LOL. Maybe a lost month or two coming up?
 

Zed

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A bond market train wreck just makes intuitive sense after this extended bond bull market. It must end, we cannot breath in forever.
 

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Strawboss

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There is gonna be a retest of the breakout at $1360 area..the question is whether it will be soon...or further in the future. I am leaning towards them letting price go up to about $1500 or even $1900...and then smashing it back down to retest the breakout.

If you look at past breakouts - the price usually goes up a good bit before the correction to test resistance turned support.

But - who the hell knows...
 

savvydon

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There is gonna be a retest of the breakout at $1360 area..the question is whether it will be soon...or further in the future. I am leaning towards them letting price go up to about $1500 or even $1900...and then smashing it back down to retest the breakout.

If you look at past breakouts - the price usually goes up a good bit before the correction to test resistance turned support.

But - who the hell knows...
Interesting. I feel like the higher it goes before a retest the larger the subsequent bull move will be. It is hard to fathom where we are at in this thing but I think GSR is a useful lens to look at as the scene unfolds. The higher the GSR the more likelihood TPTB haven’t let go yet and are going to try to marshall their forces for an epic, spirit crushing, beat down. On the other hand, when the GSR crumps I will feel more confidence that the big boys are stepping away from the table and letting price action take a more natural course. 2c
 

savvydon

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A bond market train wreck just makes intuitive sense after this extended bond bull market. It must end, we cannot breath in forever.
Ok, I know a myopic twit without a clue, but why would someone want to invest in a 100 year 1% bond when they can just own gold?:don't know:
 
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I couldn't make a snapshot of a chart on gold (6 hourly), it's showing a turn up. I'm not sure if gold will ever retest under 1400 from the looks of it.
 

Zed

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Ok, I know a myopic twit without a clue, but why would someone want to invest in a 100 year 1% bond when they can just own gold?:don't know:
Gold has a carrying cost so rates have to go slightly negative to be the same. The only thing they are looking at is return of capital when the bargains come out. So I guess if you drop a few points (in reality it will probably be make a few) at peak panic when you can pick up blue chip whatever at deep discount it is not a worry. Liquidity and safety is what counts IMO. Gold is the play if you are mid to long term fearful, gov bonds if you want to stash cash that you intend to use fast when the time comes. I dunno but that is how I look @ it.
 

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A lot of hate for gary in the past from trading community in general. For the record, he was pounding the table from last summer 2018 low. 90% of other bloggers, wave people etc were calling for new lows. Trendline/goldadvisor guy for example that staggering posted over and over.

Just for you... cuz I know you want it. 9
I did not watch yet.
Do not have the lip smacking, 9 chart fartin' addiction like you 9 pencil strokers do. ;-)
9
The nines are bait, and title says "hard"... click it NOW !
 

Zed

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Gold hourly.... bouncing along support here. Sell volume is on the up tick, not so good.
.
AU-1H-20190627-1.png
 

Zed

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Flat down here...
 

Zed

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Just for you... cuz I know you want it. 9
I did not watch yet.
Do not have the lip smacking, 9 chart fartin' addiction like you 9 pencil strokers do. ;-)
9
The nines are bait, and title says "hard"... click it NOW !

Ratios that go below 1 need to be charted with a log scale.

He is talking about a period on declining interest rates, the breakout occurred when rates peaked.

We are looking at different drivers here... expecting the same play isn't a good plan.

The two commodity bulls he compares had radically differing drivers.

He might be right but not for the right reasons.

JMO

2c

FWIW.

You stroker....
 

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Zed

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Zed

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Gold 1HR - Probing support again, looking a little divergent. The Calvary needs to arrive soon!

AU-1H-20190627-2.png
 

Zed

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The drink of the evening, yes Doc I know it isn't great for my body but my MIND, dear god my MIND!!!!!!



While I watch gold struggle with a break level with my trading hands tied behind my back... ahhhhh life in the antipodes!
 

Zed

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I'd tried to google a "bounce you {fill in the expletive}" picture and all I got was pictures that made me blush!

Not with standing the lack of a suitable meme...

BOUNCE YOU BITCH!
 

Zed

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A divergence is in play but we are pushing 1400 to the down side. As much as I want to see the month close out over that level I am not optimistic about it.

More...

 

savvydon

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The drink of the evening, yes Doc I know it isn't great for my body but my MIND, dear god my MIND!!!!!!
Hey man it’s all about balance. Besides, there is more to life than merely preservation. Whatever it takes... and damn the torpedos!

PS - I too am worried about Friday 1400. Years of watching the other side have its way with me, I guess... Hold on loosely!
 

Strawboss

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$1400 is an arbitrary number...The KEY for a monthly close is above $1370ish...

So far - what we see is the overbought condition being bled off while price is consolidating at a high level...which is very bullish in my opinion...but - much too soon to tell. I would prefer to see a couple of weeks of this high level consolidation.

Lets see where we end up at COB on Friday. That will speak volumes...
 

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$1400 is an arbitrary number...The KEY for a monthly close is above $1370ish...

So far - what we see is the overbought condition being bled off while price is consolidating at a high level...which is very bullish in my opinion...but - much too soon to tell. I would prefer to see a couple of weeks of this high level consolidation.

Lets see where we end up at COB on Friday. That will speak volumes...
Agreed, 1200 irrelevant, just like 1300, 1400, etc

1377 mid point lower box, 1368 bottom.of inner box. 1395 [1386 - 1377 - 1368] 1359

~1375 yuge fib #

Lets see what g20 weekend and 4th july week bring
 

Zed

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$1400 is an arbitrary number...The KEY for a monthly close is above $1370ish...

So far - what we see is the overbought condition being bled off while price is consolidating at a high level...which is very bullish in my opinion...but - much too soon to tell. I would prefer to see a couple of weeks of this high level consolidation.

Lets see where we end up at COB on Friday. That will speak volumes...
1395 and 1350 are significant closes on the monthly chart...

BUT I WANT MY SHINY NEW 14 HANDLE!

 

Zed

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savvydon

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LOL!... Those become a bit more complex the older they get.;)

So, today was impressive. It had the feel of a failed beat down. Initially silver leading gold down, maybe looking to get through some stops. It wasn't to be. The metals just kept coming back methodically through the day. Action felt very constructive given where we have recently gotten too. However, at the moment I must confess to a massive case of FOF



fear of Friday
 

Zed

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LOL!... Those become a bit more complex the older they get.;)

So, today was impressive. It had the feel of a failed beat down. Initially silver leading gold down, maybe looking to get through some stops. It wasn't to be. The metals just kept coming back methodically through the day. Action felt very constructive given where we have recently gotten too. However, at the moment I must confess to a massive case of FOF



fear of Friday
Gold 1Hr. Note the volume in the big red then the green vol that kicked in off the 1400 level. I would guess that a 14 handle will not suit some sooooo today's poke may just be a probe to see what it will take and how much buying lay in wait @ 1400 odd. I suspect that the monkey hammers size is being selected for Friday. I suspect we will see that ~1380 area in short time once this level gives out. I will be surprised if the buyers don't step back and take the discount if they come out all guns blazing to paint the month close lower. That will put us $50 off the high and back to a more sustainable trend on the daily. It looks like a logical landing point for a healthy little correction. JMO.... but I'm still gonna chuck a tanty if I don't get my 14 handle!!!!!!!


AU-1H-20190628-1.png
 

Zed

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Impending tanty. For reference. See previous post.

 

Zed

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LOL!... Those become a bit more complex the older they get.;)
**** ****** ****** and ******** ******** ******* *******!!!!!!!!

[redacted, children read this thread you know!]
 

Zed

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- 1.5% right off the open. Lets see how Friday nerves go today!
 

Zed

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Gold coming to life as we approach the Tocom/Honkers session.
 

dpong

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Would a 15 handle cause a hissy? LOL.
 
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something caught my eye, gold to silver ratio now stands at 92.45.

Cool facts about ratios:
The ratio of silver to gold in the earth's crust is 17.5:1. In Roman times, the price ratio was set at 12 to 1. In 1792, the gold/silver price ratio was fixed by law in the United States at 15:1, which meant that one troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver; a ratio of 15.5:1 was enacted in France in 1803.Sep 10, 2018