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Strawboss

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I went back and looked. Even 2011 and before and after NEVER went to 100% like it did in 2016. If you ever see sentiment get to 100%, RUN LIKE HELL!!
Normally I would agree with you...but we are living at a time that is rather "unique"...

Is it possible for the %index to remain running between lets say 70-100 for an extended period of time? Considering whats going on? If something pops with Iran? Global crash? Deutche bank?

Past performance is not always an accurate predictor of future performance. But to your point - often times it is...

Truth is...we are all guessing to some extent...playing the averages...
 

dpong

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I don't disagree, and Zed man is refuting my charts with his charts. OK. Still, with 100% positive sentiment, who are those new buyers going to be again?

It's not the end all be all, but worth noting. Higher sentiment (like 100%?) should urge some caution.
 

Strawboss

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Higher sentiment (like 100%?) should urge some caution.
Totally 100% agree.

Except for the Iran thing...or the Fed thing...or the Deutche thing...or the Trump thing...lol

I am just being a smartass - dont mind me...

I guess the point I am making in all this is I think the ride ahead is going to be like a bucking bronco. Its gonna try to throw us off...and not gently either...

All the charts most of us have access to cant account for the potential disintegration of the worlds reserve currency...or the Euro...or the Yen. Those charts dont show a previous time where that was the reality. And that means that we are gonna have to sort of navigate what lies ahead based on feel...and when I say "we" I really mean me...but I dont know what I dont know...and therein lies the risk...so hopefully you all will help that not happen.'
 

Zed

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HUI Monthly - Some perspective. IMO the 'correction' will come later in the year into early next year. From monthly ROC 85+, monthly RSI 70+ etc...

JMO for now.

HUI-M-2019072019-1.png
 

Zed

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Zed man is refuting my charts with his charts. OK. Still, with 100% positive sentiment, who are those new buyers going to be again?
... it is just that the back drop matters when measuring sentiment.

5 years of the S&P for example...

sc1.png
 

Zed

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Note the increased sentiment volatility in the bottoming and topping processes. Assuming that this is a topping process...
 

dpong

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At 10% sentiment reference January 2019. Are there a lot of potential buyers or what?

Circle back around here. I think we are in a very good place in the miners right now. Full stop.
 

Zed

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Still, with 100% positive sentiment, who are those new buyers going to be again?
IF the market segment is gathering captial then it is quite literally new money. IF the market segment is restricted to the "same old player's" then YES you are correct. The gold segment is not a zero sum game, it isn't like looking at the total market, in fact it is not the case looking at the entire market. The first question you have to ask is ---> Who's money is driving this move? The usual suspects (2016) i.e. a relatively limited pool OR is there a fundamental case to be made that we are pulling in new capital. I'd argue that we are in transition between the two, we have some new money and this will "send up a flare" that will see the sector revalued by the broader capital base. Hence my expectation that we rally MORE than expected then we correct sharply while the initial rally and the reasons for it are digested by the broader market. This move is the attention getter and IMO next year we get into a markup phase as the broader market gets it. FYI the correction into early next year should be a butt puckerer.

JMO.

FWIW.
 
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Zed

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I think we are in a very good place in the miners right now. Full stop.
Relative sentiment is probably important to us...

sc2.png


Falling below S&P bullishness probably wasn't helpful in 2016.
 

Strawboss

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IF the market segment is gathering captial then it is quite literally new money. IF the market segment is restricted to the "same old player's" then YES you are correct. The gold segment is not a zero sum game, it isn't like looking at the total market, in fact it is not the case looking at the entire market. The first question you have to ask is ---> Who's money is driving this move? The usual suspects (2016) i.e. a relatively limited pool OR is there a fundamental case to be made that we are pulling in new capital. I'd argue that we are in transition between the two, we have some new money and this will "send up a flare" that will see the sector revalued by the broader capital base. Hence my expectation that we rally MORE than expected then we correct sharply while the initial rally and the reasons for it are digested by the broader market. This move is the attention getter and IMO next year we get into a markup phase as the broader market gets it. FYI the correction into early next year should be a butt puckerer.

JMO.

FWIW.
What he said.
 

Zed

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~ -4% Today! Its bloody down here!
 

louky

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Gold, 1269 bottom of the box posted for years......wait for it ;)

View attachment 129937
1269 bottom of the box. Time to pray. Top of next box isnt til alll the way down at 1197. 1251 pivot.
What a move

Screenshot_20190725-122729_NetDania.jpg


Now watch...
1449 bottom of the box upwards, 1404 pivot between the boxes, 1395 top of lower box, 1386 top of inner box below 1359[1368 - 1377 - 1386] 1395

We really prefer to see 1386 (posted for years) hold, maybe wick spike lower/testing is ok
 
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Goldhedge

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FWIW


Is This the Reason the Fed is Freaking Out?
Posted in Central Bank Insanity By The Phoenix On July 24, 2019

Just what exactly is terrifying the Fed?

Over the last week, multiple Fed officials have surfaced to suggest the Fed needs to start cutting interest rates right now.

Indeed, on Thursday, John Williams, who runs the NY Fed (the branch in charge of market operations) suggested the Fed needs to cut rates to ZERO again.

Not 2%, or 1%, ZERO.

This is happening at a time when economic data is rebounding, unemployment is below 4% and GDP growth is north of 3%.

So what exactly is going on? What does the Fed know that has it so terrified, because it’s obviously not the US economy.

1) Deutsche Bank (DB) is imploding.


Sitting atop over $49 trillion in OCT derivatives, DB is like Lehman Brothers 2.0. And despite the best efforts of management and the authorities, the bank is imploding. DB shares were rejected by resistance last week, ending the “hope bounce” from recent moves to curtail the blow up.


2) China’s banking system is freezing.

China experienced its first financial institution failure in 21 years in June. Depositors and creditors lost 30% of their deposits in the process.
Put another way, nearly 30% of their money is GONE.

The Chinese banking authorities are attempting to piece the system back together, but it’s not working. The duress has yet to spill over into the Chinese stock market, but on Friday interbank lending in the mainland temporarily spiked to 1,000%, meaning a large bank was willing to pay ANYTHING in order to get access to capital.

This is EXTREMELY similar to what happened to the US credit markets n 2008.

And finally…
3) The Everything Bubble has burst.

The single most important bond in the world is the 10-Year US Treasury Bond. And thanks to the Fed’s tightening policy in 2018, it burst, with the yield on the 10-Year US Treasury breaking its 20-year downtrend.

The Fed is trying to get yields back into this downtrend. But it’s not going well. The yield temporarily broke back below the downtrend last month, but is beginning to bounce again.



If the Fed cannot get this situation under control, there’s $555 trillion in derivatives at stake. Yes, TRILLION with a T.
And by the way, this yield has lead stocks for the last three years both to the upside… and DOWN.



Something BIG is coming and the Fed knows it.
Now we do too…

On that note, we are already preparing our clients for this with a 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

In it, we outline the coming collapse will unfold…which investments will perform best… and how to take out “crash” insurance trades that will pay out huge returns during a market collapse.

Today is the last day this report will be available to the general public.
To pick up one of the last remaining copies…

https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/stockmarketcrash.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
 

Zed

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Flattish but green kick off down here ... ~+0.5% going into lunch otherwise known as "white collar panic hour". LOL.

The charts are looking more like rising wedges now! Not good, a correction could be closer than anticipated from a lower number than anticipated.
 

Zed

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I just finished watching an interview with Shannon McConaghy of Horseman Capital, his specialty is Japanese banking. He basically laid out why the Japanese Banking system must collapse and reasoned that it has started and is in train now with the regional banks getting into hot water across the next few months. For years it has been speculated that Japan's system was in trouble but through various means, much of which he explained, the can has been kicked down the road. He says that the road has now run out...

My thoughts are along the lines that this sounds highly plausible. The world is worried about Deutsbank and the Euronutz and all the while a king hit is sneaking up from left field. Japan is DEEPLY connected across the spectrum of international finance, problems in their banking system could be that left field event that starts the next major crisis globally. Shannon said that it will be Europe if it isn't Japan BUT he can't see how they fall before the Japanese do.

Watch this space...
 
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Goldhedge

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Brexit just might be the straw that breaks the Deutshbank's back....
 

Zed

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Brexit just might be the straw that breaks the Deutshbank's back....
Whatever comes first may be a moot point in the end. Looks like there is ample potential all round save for the US, that 2008 house cleaning makes you guys actually look fitter! USD to da MOON!
 

Cigarlover

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I just finished watching an interview with Shannon McConaghy of Horseman Capital, his specialty is Japanese banking. He basically laid out why the Japanese Banking system must collapse and reasoned that it has started and is in train now with the regional banks getting into hot water across the next few months. For years it has been speculated that Japan's system was in trouble but through various means, much of which he explained, the can has been kicked down the road. He says that the road has now run out...

My thoughts are along the lines that this sounds highly plausible. The world is worried about Deutsbank and the Euronutz and all the while a king hit is sneaking up from left field. Japan is DEEPLY connected across the spectrum of international finance, problems in their banking system could be that left field event that starts the next major crisis globally. Shannon said that it will be Europe if it isn't Japan BUT he can't see how they fall before the Japanese do.

Watch this space...
Doesn't the Japs fed own like 1/2 the stocks in Japan? Probably at least that much debt as well.
 

Strawboss

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Whatever comes first may be a moot point in the end. Looks like there is ample potential all round save for the US, that 2008 house cleaning makes you guys actually look fitter! USD to da MOON!
Yeah - that pretty much aligns with Armstrong's thinking the past few years...

He thinks the Euro is gonna break first, followed by the Yen...which will result in MASSIVE inflows into the USD - which will drive it really, REALLY high...which will break the world economy since most contracts globally are still denominated in USD...
 

Goldhedge

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The salient feature of the Almighty Dollar is that it's the most used oil in the economic engine of the world. Sure, you can use synthetic oil, but regular oil is readily available, perceived safe and relatively inexpensive to use.

Unlike the rest of the world, US Law is fairly stable - getting more so since Trump's DOJ is pulling the robes of the SCOTUS...


Driving the dollar 'really really high' gives us what opportunity? Gold up? Down?
 

savvydon

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Driving the dollar 'really really high' gives us what opportunity? Gold up? Down?
More informed minds can give better answers, but my impression is that, when the dollar is driven 'really really high', the effect on gold is less directly from the dollar, which has traditionally been an inverse correlation, but more from the events causing the dollar to be pushed up like that. Presumably, world economic instability and money printing that causes the dollar to go up will only worsens the international economic crunch and be associated with gold starting to more noticeably shine. As Zed has mentioned, seeing the dollar melt up is part of the process of accelerated world economic decay - in this scenario you gotta believe that money shifts into hard assets.
 

Strawboss

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The salient feature of the Almighty Dollar is that it's the most used oil in the economic engine of the world. Sure, you can use synthetic oil, but regular oil is readily available, perceived safe and relatively inexpensive to use.

Unlike the rest of the world, US Law is fairly stable - getting more so since Trump's DOJ is pulling the robes of the SCOTUS...


Driving the dollar 'really really high' gives us what opportunity? Gold up? Down?
Armstrong thinks initially down - but then will rise alongside the dollar.

I am not saying I suscribe to his theory...but the guy has a pretty solid track record of predicting this sort of stuff. Not 100% mind you...

And - when gold dipped a while back to $1045 - he said that it had met the minimum requirement of a pullback - which I take to mean that gold does NOT have to correct sub $1K as he had previously indicated was likely...(going back a year or 2 in the memory banks on this post)...

Personally - I think its all engines are a go for gold/silver/miners to continue higher...although with the caveat that the COTs are not at all bullish right now. Commercials are HEAVILY short - Specs are HEAVILY long and the swap dealers (who are usually right at turning points) are heavily net short.

So...I think we will either chop sideways as the exuberance wears off...or we might correct 5-10% or so from the recent highs...but - I am keeping my long positions as I think the longer term trend is still higher.

2nd caveat...the weekly charts are pretty extended on the RSI for many of the miners...the correction I envision may last a couple months or so...
 

louky

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Gold CoT - funds net long postion saw no change, while banks and commercials continued to increase their net short positions to highest levels since sept 2016

Silver CoT - funds chased price, doubling their long position to the highest level since November 2017 in a single week, while commercials loaded up short
 

Zed

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I just finished watching an interview with Shannon McConaghy of Horseman Capital, his specialty is Japanese banking. He basically laid out why the Japanese Banking system must collapse and reasoned that it has started and is in train now with the regional banks getting into hot water across the next few months. For years it has been speculated that Japan's system was in trouble but through various means, much of which he explained, the can has been kicked down the road. He says that the road has now run out...

My thoughts are along the lines that this sounds highly plausible. The world is worried about Deutsbank and the Euronutz and all the while a king hit is sneaking up from left field. Japan is DEEPLY connected across the spectrum of international finance, problems in their banking system could be that left field event that starts the next major crisis globally. Shannon said that it will be Europe if it isn't Japan BUT he can't see how they fall before the Japanese do.

Watch this space...
Shannon has an associate who is a currency expert, apparently he maintains that this will play as a stronger yen. I guess that any 'carry source' currency gets stronger in a crisis as loans are called back home. i.e. 2008 and the USD.
 

Zed

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Gold Weekly - Still a high level consolidation until we break 1400 downside on the week or 1425 upside on the week. Weekly upside projection is ~1575 and we would probably exceed that by $20 or so on a daily basis AND the weekly downside correction target most probably lay in the 1368 to 1350 area being a correction to 61.8% - 50% of the previous move. If we break to the upside the floor that we are building now becomes a probable correction floor from the eventual high in the high 15's.

JMO etc... Vait and vatch!



AUUSD-W-20190728-1.png
 

Zed

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Gold Monthly - (to date, 3 days left to trade) I just switched to a monthly period and added in resistance from the last topping process.From a T/A perspective resistance @ 1560 to 1620 looks like a monty for a short seller so if they are going to get brave it will be from an obvious area like this ----> JMO DYODD etc.

AUUSD-M-20190728-1.png
 

Zed

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Until we break 1400 downward I'm gonna stick with the up into Sep/Oct/Nov period then a down into New Year call. After that 2020 looks like a gold party to me FWIW.
 

savvydon

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Until we break 1400 downward I'm gonna stick with the up into Sep/Oct/Nov period then a down into New Year call. After that 2020 looks like a gold party to me FWIW.
Big week ahead. Lots of opportunity for volatility. On the one hand recent Fed meetings have been gold positive. On the other the Cot is getting rather heavy.
 

Zed

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Big week ahead. Lots of opportunity for volatility. On the one hand recent Fed meetings have been gold positive. On the other the Cot is getting rather heavy.
Yes. The charge is set and it looks like she'll go boom real good.

Now... which way?

 

Zed

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Goldhedge

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Listen to the video FWIW (I don't own any of these)

Novagold -

Screen Shot 2019-07-29 at 3.52.15 PM.png


if you like pennies (lotto ticket) - Major Mining Partner, Nova Gold

Screen Shot 2019-07-29 at 3.54.35 PM.png


as talked about here at SGT Report

 

Strawboss

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Until we break 1400 downward I'm gonna stick with the up into Sep/Oct/Nov period then a down into New Year call. After that 2020 looks like a gold party to me FWIW.
So basically - after the UK breaks out of jail - gold will top and then a correction?