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Zed

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So basically - after the UK breaks out of jail - gold will top and then a correction?
It's possible that could be a major catalyst. Gold rises discounting a bad outcome then the fact happens and the UK is exactly the same the next day and golds premium sells down. Even if it isn't THE driver it will make good headlines should the timing work out so one would expect the narrative to be spun that way. Maybe there is a better...



... by then.

Moi cynical? NEVER!

Anywhoooo... by this time next year it will be background noise. ---> JMO.
 

Zed

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Even if the Trumpster wants to unilaterally devalue the USD how does he do it? The only way is direct and unhinged monetization of new money. That will kill him domestically. JMO.

How, please, tell me how this happens?
 

Zed

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Listen to the video FWIW (I don't own any of these)

Novagold -

View attachment 137407

if you like pennies (lotto ticket) - Major Mining Partner, Nova Gold

View attachment 137414

as talked about here at SGT Report

I'm 3:30 into it and they are talking about the Euro crashing and the USD crashing a week or two later! Just where the hell to they think the balance of currency flows are going to go then?????????? China... nah, too fecking communist! Hong Kong is worrying the world. So where else does big money hide? I can't see this happening, I'd suggest these numb skulls really don't get what they are talking about.
 

Strawboss

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Even if the Trumpster wants to unilaterally devalue the USD how does he do it? The only way is direct and unhinged monetization of new money. That will kill him domestically. JMO.

How, please, tell me how this happens?
After the 2020 election...and the electors cast their votes...and if Trump is the victor....

All bets are off...
 

Zed

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Greg Weldon's offering for what he sees as the most bullish setup for gold that he has seen in his life time. (his words..)

http://www.gold-guru.com/
 

Zed

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USD on Gold ---> Something changed in Oct 2018. Pretty well traveling together since that date.

sc.png
 

Strawboss

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USD on Gold ---> Something changed in Oct 2018. Pretty well traveling together since that date.

View attachment 137429
Armstrong talked about that...

Initially - gold would decline...but would then rise with other assets (especially the DOW30) as foreign money would pour in seeking safe haven in various asset classes...

All these asset classes would rise WITH the USD.

And that seems to be whats happening. And in the not too distant future...between UK doing BREXIT and the potential for Italy to leave the Euro...the Euro is toast...I can envision massive currency flows into the USD.

The question is...have we already seen the dip in gold (when it went to $1045) and now they will rise together...or - does that "correction" still loom in the future...

Who knows...

And for any newbies lurking...if anyone - and I mean ANYONE says they know whats gonna happen...dont believe them. Even if they are right.

Truth is...no one knows WTF is gonna happen tomorrow - let alone a year from now. We are all making judgment calls on incomplete information - doing the best we can. Anyone that claims otherwise is a charlatan...
 

savvydon

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Even if the Trumpster wants to unilaterally devalue the USD how does he do it? The only way is direct and unhinged monetization of new money. That will kill him domestically.
You mean money printing? How will this kill him domestically?
 

Zed

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You mean money printing? How will this kill him domestically?
You'd finally get proper price inflation and considering that average person can't muster $500 that'd be a government changer IMO. You import a lot and commodities trade @ world prices... so, if they manage it prices would have to move more than wages can!

It's not like they'd have to print a small amount to get a unilateral devaluation, it's very different to letting a peg go and seeing the currency settle to its correct trading level.

JMO... etc.
 
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Zed

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Dead Fed? No it couldn't happen. Could it?
 

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Zed

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You mean money printing? How will this kill him domestically?
If this end the Fed stuff is real I can't imagine the fall out. Can a Prez actually pull that off? I'd assumed it was just political noise about the Fed and not a serious suggestion. If he did kill off the Fed that implies a significant restructure which I guess would give greater control over the currency... but wow, that'd rock the $$$$$ world. I dunno how that would play, I haven't given it a serious thought until today... jeeeezus that'd be mad for a while. What a mess to try and undo... it would take radical and drastic maneuvers. I guess if we have a decent crash it could give the political capital to spend in that area... I dunno. Wild thought, one that I am certain the market has given zero consideration.
 

Strawboss

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If this end the Fed stuff is real I can't imagine the fall out. Can a Prez actually pull that off? I'd assumed it was just political noise about the Fed and not a serious suggestion. If he did kill off the Fed that implies a significant restructure which I guess would give greater control over the currency... but wow, that'd rock the $$$$$ world. I dunno how that would play, I haven't given it a serious thought until today... jeeeezus that'd be mad for a while. What a mess to try and undo... it would take radical and drastic maneuvers. I guess if we have a decent crash it could give the political capital to spend in that area... I dunno. Wild thought, one that I am certain the market has given zero consideration.
1. Trump knows gold. The guy has an affinity for it. Anyone that doesnt believe this - just take a look at pictures of his apartment in the Trump Tower. When it comes to matters of finance and debt and the banking system and all that...Trump knows it as well as anyone.
2. Trump knows the US debt is unpayable. He understands we are already structurally bankrupt.
3. Trump knows a thing or 2 about leverage in a bankruptcy...the US has all the leverage in the world.

A rising gold price fixes all the problems. Its a simple yet elegant solution. Trump can push down the currency all he wants - with or without the help of the Fed...

Can you imagine a tweet from Trump where he mentions gold? Or suggests that its incredibly undervalued? Or that its a great time to buy it?

All it will take is 1 tweet.

Just 1.

And Trump knows it...and so does everyone else.
 

Cigarlover

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Back when the fed was created Gold was money. There was a limited supply.

Fast forward to today where paper is money and printed in unlimited amounts.
In 1913 we needed bankers to lend real money to the system. Today they print at will with essentially no debt limit to the US gov.

Eliminate the fed and the Gov can still print unlimited amounts of money interest free. In fact they can be the central bank and even lend at 0 interest rates.
The fed knows they are useless anymore for the above reason.

Gov gets rid of the fed. Defaults on the debt to the fed, pays off other countries with our new currency to keep them all happy and declares a jubilee for the rest of America who owes any money.
Americans are now debt free and go on the biggest spending spree in the history of the world.
 

Strawboss

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And a loaf of crappy bread will be $20.
Gold can be the transitional "bridge" between the Fed and a government issued 0% currency...with all the rest of what Cigar said being accurate.

Essentially - we leave the Fed (and the other central banks around the world) holding the bag for the debt...everyone else gets to keep what they have...

Figure out what the gold price would have to be in order to balance the books (with a little set aside for contingencies) and then have the government offer to buy gold at that price. Pretty simple if you think about it...
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Back when the fed was created Gold was money. There was a limited supply.

Fast forward to today where paper is money and printed in unlimited amounts.
In 1913 we needed bankers to lend real money to the system. Today they print at will with essentially no debt limit to the US gov.

Eliminate the fed and the Gov can still print unlimited amounts of money interest free. In fact they can be the central bank and even lend at 0 interest rates.
The fed knows they are useless anymore for the above reason.

Gov gets rid of the fed. Defaults on the debt to the fed, pays off other countries with our new currency to keep them all happy and declares a jubilee for the rest of America who owes any money.
Americans are now debt free and go on the biggest spending spree in the history of the world.
Ok, say all that is truth...
Then the people with the most debt win, they hold title to the most physical items although leveraged to the hilt. After reset they hold clear title, multiply their net worth in blue dollars....

Then the people with no debt but large cash accounts get no increase in position, and potentially lose big time in the conversion from green to blue.

The people who hold G & S (propbably less than 1/10th of 1%) see there fortunes rise, but since security state .gov is issuing the blue dollars, these folks will pay handsomely in taxes before getting blue dollars to exchange for goods and services....

Lastly those that hold stock certificates outside of those held in trust by compushare or the companies themselves will undergo a violent but unpredictable conversion green to blue.... with a possible tax event to get there!

All said you just made a pretty convincing case to be leveraged to the hilt!
 

Cigarlover

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Ok, say all that is truth...
Then the people with the most debt win, they hold title to the most physical items although leveraged to the hilt. After reset they hold clear title, multiply their net worth in blue dollars....

Then the people with no debt but large cash accounts get no increase in position, and potentially lose big time in the conversion from green to blue.

The people who hold G & S (propbably less than 1/10th of 1%) see there fortunes rise, but since security state .gov is issuing the blue dollars, these folks will pay handsomely in taxes before getting blue dollars to exchange for goods and services....

Lastly those that hold stock certificates outside of those held in trust by compushare or the companies themselves will undergo a violent but unpredictable conversion green to blue.... with a possible tax event to get there!

All said you just made a pretty convincing case to be leveraged to the hilt!
I agree and would hate to see the debt forgiveness. I am debt free and have been for a decade. I obviously have no idea how or what they would even do if they got rid of the fed. Just one possible scenario. Of course it's the government we are talking about so whatever they do will be 3000 pages long and completely unintelligible to all except the best trained lawyers.
 

Strawboss

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Looking forward to Zed's analysis of the monthly charts once August 1 arrives...
 

Varmint Hunter

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Anybody here willing to share what they believe the POG (gold stocks) will do tomorrow after the 1/4+ Fed move?
I have a little dry powder & trying to decide wether to dive or wait.
 

jelly

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I believe that back in the mid-2000's, 2006-2009 timeframe, that gold would often follow the "buy the rumor, sell the news" strategy. We've been rallying hard on the rumor, now we see if we sell off at the news of the rate cut. This is going to be the very first cut, so maybe gold won't follow that, but instead shoot up to 1550? ETA: I don't have the time to do the research right now, but I believe one of the first rounds of QE announced by the fed resulted in a one-week sell-off before rallying hard. Like Zed said, we move hard after the fed, its a matter of which direction!

IMO, we sell off for a couple weeks toward 1380-1400, before turning around and spiking to 1550-1600. But I'm not putting money on that, atleast not yet.
 
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Joe King

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Eliminate the fed and the Gov can still print unlimited amounts of money interest free. In fact they can be the central bank and even lend at 0 interest rates.
So you honestly believe that giving the likes of pelosi schummer and aoc, the keys to the printing press willl be a good thing? I don't.
 

Zed

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The wisdom of Bob.

 
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IMO, we sell off for a couple weeks toward 1380-1400, before turning around and spiking to 1550-1600. But I'm not putting money on that, atleast not yet.[/QUOTE]

I'll give it a try.. evening session hopefully can hold 40s. If we break 50, convincingly, we shoot over your 1550.. and then take our lil siesta.
The miners have been leading
Gold has been in sync w/stocks
Fed is going to feed stocks
Series of cuts
And if I am wrong, we are still in a bull market. About 40% of that last b-run of 700%. :)
 

Zed

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Getting a really patchy outcome down here today, mostly green BUT some heavy shorting going on in my leading stocks so I am net red. Someone is certain that a cut is coming and that it actually plays negative for gold. I'm not so sure... I think we are pushing on a string @ this point and a rate cut speaks more to fear than it generates optimism.

It will be interesting to see the fall out after the inevitable short term goose that will be put into play.
 

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Zed

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Strawboss

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Well - its official. The Fed has reset the glidepath to the zero bound....

Currency wars are now officially sanctioned and operational.

Interestingly - golds response is muted. Waiting on Powells comments perhaps? Market gonna take some time to digest the recent gains?

:don't know:
 

Strawboss

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I should have followed the old adage, cash is king. Once the dust settles, I think the dollar and gold are going up together. I think foreigners are going to pile on American markets because its stronger than all other markets combined (just my opinion for god stakes).
You very well may be proven right. Who the hell knows about these things?
 

Goldhedge

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I should have followed the old adage, cash is king. Once the dust settles, I think the dollar and gold are going up together. I think foreigners are going to pile on American markets because its stronger than all other markets combined (just my opinion for god stakes).
I think the real reason is the rule of law has returned.

Folks don't like to put in their chips when the casino is rigged against their getting them back.

Even though it is rigged, there's the chance one just might get in and out unscathed with a little profit to show.

The US has the rule of law where other nations might take your money and leave you with your life....
 

Uglytruth

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I think we are pushing on a string @ this point and a rate cut speaks more to fear than it generates optimism.
I think the real reason is the rule of law has returned.
Because nothing stands alone and everything is inter connected in today's world. Does Trump really have it all? Does he have the fed by the short hairs? If they wanted him out like the scream they do they would start raising interest rates to crash the economy before the election. Takes 6 months to work it's way through the system so in 6 months this should kick in and if there is more cuts to come the economy should be doing well & people vote their pocketbook right? That would also give the "R"'s their eight years with the baton even though they have done nothing but undermine him. Then when you look at the dnc circus of clowns and misfits NONE of them come across as leaders. crazy uncle bernie, paws biden, the indian browd and the blowjob kinda black crazy.......

I keep hearing they are cutting so debt slaves can buy, buy, buy! Houses, cars, boats whatever like the sort distant past never was.
As I get older I see how they fleece every generation one way or another........
 

Cigarlover

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So you honestly believe that giving the likes of pelosi schummer and aoc, the keys to the printing press willl be a good thing? I don't.
Would there be a difference to what we have now where every year we just raise the debt ceiling and print more? Right now we have 2 years of no limit. By 2021 we should be 25-26 trillion?
 

Zed

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Sea of red down here pretty much reflecting the US experience ~-5%. Not really reflective of golds price action, soooooo we will see if buying comes into it toward closing time.
 

Joe King

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Would there be a difference to what we have now where every year we just raise the debt ceiling and print more? Right now we have 2 years of no limit. By 2021 we should be 25-26 trillion?
Yes, as bad as it may currently be, giving the spendthrifts we have congress the keys to the printing press will only end in disaster.
....and relatively quickly, too.

As bad as the fed may be,, there is in fact more restraint there than congress has.
What other nations government has had direct control of money creation and not blown the lid off within a generation or two?