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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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I went all in today after Powell started talking. Bought LEAP options...as much time as I could...about 50% out of the money for each...

I am pretty sure that $1369 is gonna be pretty solid support. And that is only a few percentage points from here. I have no idea what gold is gonna do - but, there is far more upside gain than downside risk...thats my calculus on all this...

Whether I will be prosperous on this or taken to the woodshed...that remains to be seen...

But - my chips are in - I have bought plenty of time and we will see what we see...
 

dpong

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Maybe sentiment got a little too high short term. Apparently not a popular opinion. Meh.
 

Joe King

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Gold bounced at 1404.00 you cant make this stuff up.
Yea, it's pretty amazing. I'd just like to thank @louky , @Zed , @Strawboss , (and others i am surely forgetting), for sharing their knowledge on this subject with all of us here at gim2. You guys obviously have a lot of knowledge on this subject. Thank you for taking the time and putting forth the effort to share it with us.
 

Cigarlover

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Yes, as bad as it may currently be, giving the spendthrifts we have congress the keys to the printing press will only end in disaster.
....and relatively quickly, too.

As bad as the fed may be,, there is in fact more restraint there than congress has.
What other nations government has had direct control of money creation and not blown the lid off within a generation or two?
I am kinda hoping they will just blow the lid off and crash the whole system. I just don't think things in DC will change if the system doesn't crash first.
 
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Years ago many were all for ending the Fed, now it looks like ending it might not be such a great thing.
 

Strawboss

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Yea, it's pretty amazing. I'd just like to thank @louky , @Zed , @Strawboss , (and others i am surely forgetting), for sharing their knowledge on this subject with all of us here at gim2. You guys obviously have a lot of knowledge on this subject. Thank you for taking the time and putting forth the effort to share it with us.
Dude...

The highest grade I ever "completed" was kindergarten. True story.

Never finished the 6th grade (I was in juvenile detention).
Never finished the 8th grade (I skipped pretty much the whole year).
Never finished the 12th grade (I was homeless during the 2nd semester of senior year)]
Never finished college (It took me 1/2 way through the 2nd semester to figure out it was a scam.)

So...be careful before you enroll me into the hall of fame or anything...

Besides - I wouldnt even qualify to meet up with Zed because his country frowns upon people like me...they have actually passed laws prohibiting me from stepping foot on their soil...

I am just a nobody. I try my best to seek truth wherever I can...and to share what I find with others...like yourself. Like you - I am mostly fumbling around in the dark...

Here is my advice to you...dont trust me. Or Louky. Or Zed. Or anyone else for that matter...

Trust yourself. Invest in yourself. Be yourself.

God made you. For a purpose. With intent.

Commit to being the best "you" that you can!

Thats my advice...
 

Joe King

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I am kinda hoping they will just blow the lid off and crash the whole system. I just don't think things in DC will change if the system doesn't crash first.
I hear ya, and I feel your pain. Really, I do.
....but to hope for a reset type of crash means to hope for lots of people hurting, and I can't hope for that.

I realize that at some point that's exactly what's going to happen, bbut I feel it should be just what naturally happens. That we should not seek to hasten the day.
 

Uglytruth

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Sea of red down here pretty much reflecting the US experience ~-5%. Not really reflective of golds price action, soooooo we will see if buying comes into it toward closing time.
Market strong so shaking out weak hands?
 

Joe King

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So...be careful before you enroll me into the hall of fame or anything.
Don't worry, i'm not advocating anything like that. Just that yours and others sage advice and general thoughts on the markets is much appreciated. At least by me.
 

Strawboss

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Don't worry, i'm not advocating anything like that. Just that yours and others sage advice and general thoughts on the markets is much appreciated. At least by me.
Just be careful.

This game is rigged. There are people...powerful people...that have far more information than we do. And their odds of success when they place a bet are orders of magnitude better than ours...

And there is a lot of disinformation out there. People with agendas. Angles. Vested interests...

And they dont care about you. They will break you for breakfast. And not blink an eye.

Protect yourself and your loved ones. Be careful. Cautious. Judicious. Question everything. Trust no one.

Just trying to keep it real...

May God bless you and yours!!
 

Zed

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Market strong so shaking out weak hands?
Yeah, also AUD gold is high and a rate cut from you guys SHOULD lead to a weaker USD which leads to a weaker AUD gold price ... in theory. I dunno that it will wash out that way, mebe short term BUT I think that they will be reversing this trade shortly.
 

Zed

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Pushing on a string? Cuts now mean --> Summin is wrong!

sc.png
 

stonedywankanobe

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Zed you say gold is looking for a bottom yes but it has failed support at 1430 or so no less than five times in recent days/weeks.

If it keeps it up, Gold =
puking camel mebe?


Silver i think looks good though. Will probley rally hard then drag gold up by its bootstrap plus give it a good ole dick slap to the face is my call.
 

Zed

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Cashing In: How to Make Negative Interest Rates Work

https://blogs.imf.org/2019/02/05/cashing-in-how-to-make-negative-interest-rates-work/

I'm noting that the gradual move against cash is occurring down here. To have negative interest rates you must be able to lock people into the banking system. It seems that at the very least they are going to try and go there! Imagine a world where you cannot save and you are incented to borrow and buy because it is CHEAPER than saving! I can't imagine the distortions that this would bring forth. People will react in ways that they will not be anticipating, after all in the first instance they couldn't manage to anticipate that people would run to cash!!!!! Who are these people and what are they using for intelligence?

Anywhoooooo keep in mind that there has never been a country that lent and spent its way to prosperity, every successful country saved and invested its way to prosperity! This is the ultimate punishment of savers... you need to understand no more than that to see where this would go.

Hopefully this crap causes a full blown revolt wherever the political classes are stupid enough to try it.
 

Zed

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Zed you say gold is looking for a bottom yes but it has failed support at 1430 or so no less than five times in recent days/weeks.

If it keeps it up, Gold =
puking camel mebe?


Silver i think looks good though. Will probley rally hard then drag gold up by its bootstrap plus give it a good ole dick slap to the face is my call.
Short term, ie. 4H time frame. Lord knows if that puts another swing @ 1430 on the table. Lets see how we bounce.

You always have to look at the time frame of the chart posted and keep in mind the probable scope of what it is indicating.
 

Zed

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Gold Monthly --> Yes we are getting over bought but we could still have 1 to 3 months of upside here before it corrects significantly. July's candle is a spinning top indicating that there is a balance between buyers and sellers OR market indecision as to the direction we will take from here. Still looking like a high level consolidation to me and still projecting a shot @ the target is possible. Looking at this and the weekly it still kinda looks like the next upleg will be the exhaustion leg and that is what will herald what will probably be a multi month correction which @ my best guess is into the New Year. If the general market has a gut check in say October and we are higher I'd say we go with it for sure. IMO gold behaved quite well considering it was almost certainly "on the menu" for some window dressing.

AUUSD-M-20190801-1.png
 

Zed

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PS> Most of the damage to gold is being done in thin markets, lets wait and see what the follow through is when we get back to some volume. So far Hong Kong has been mostly buying the discount if that is any indication.
 

Zed

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Gold 30 min --> Notice the divergence that occurs sometimes when we get a bit of a monkey hammering in gold. There seems to have been high selling pressure prior to the break proper then quite a few long lower tails as people have been buying into the selling. Most of the big red bars have closed quite a way off their lows indicating that this wasn't a walk in the park for the short sellers.

AUUSD-30M-20190801-1.png
 

savvydon

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Gold 30 min --> Notice the divergence that occurs sometimes when we get a bit of a monkey hammering in gold. There seems to have been high selling pressure prior to the break proper then quite a few long lower tails as people have been buying into the selling. Most of the big red bars have closed quite a way off their lows indicating that this wasn't a walk in the park for the short sellers.

View attachment 137657
That's good analysis, Z. I noticed the head start that was taken at the PMs from about an hour before the Fed announcement. I too felt there was a sense of resiliency to the monkey hammering. It was disappointing to see the miners took the bait hook line and sinker, though.
 

Zed

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It was disappointing to see the miners took the bait hook line and sinker, though.
Stock market weakness gets the margined momentum players into sell mode regardless of reality. They are focused on margin calls etc... Still, it shouldn't take long to blow the froth off the market, we are more a flat white that a cappuccino JMO etc
 

Zed

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-~6.5% down here. White collar panic hour was bloody! Hopefully we will see some relief into the close. -~10% in two days is a little silly considering POG. I guess we were a bit over done... but still...
 
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Zed

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-~6.5% down here. White collar panic hour was bloody! Hopefully we will see some relief into the close. -~10% in two days is a little silly considering POG. I guess we were a bit over done... but still...
Brutal ~-6.75% today!

Sigh, I guess it has gotta happen occasionally!
 

Zed

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Weatherman

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SRS Rocco has interesting views on silver (https://srsroccoreport.com/silver-price-2019-is-this-the-year-for-a-new-bull-market/ ). He says silver has not yet confirmed a bull market until it closes above the 200 MMA line (now at $16.76):

Silver-Chart-Monthly-50-200-MMA-072619-768x581.png


He also thinks a correction low could be no worse than $15.50 in the video below:


I have been surprised at how strong silver has been over the past few weeks. The speculation below that China could be the big buyer adds a possible new perspective to consider:

Interestingly we have seen several precious metals analysts suggest that something quite interesting is taking place in the silver market. For example, Alasdair Macleod wrote an article; A Whale Is Accumulating Silver Futures, implying that the Chinese government may indeed be acquiring a significant long position in the silver market. Macleod believes China may be going long silver, via the futures market, to protect its supply by hedging as the price heads higher in the future.

The Chinese curse, May you live in interesting times, seems appropriate here. Good luck to all of us!
 

savvydon

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Monkey hammer beat down silver streak
Hands are folding small and weak
If that Cot don’t shrink a bit
My slv leap calls will take a hit
Is the metals luster lost?
Shiny Nugt turn to Dust?
Or should I stay both long and strong
So that the man can prove me wrong

One verse from the dirge, ‘Ode to the flattened gold bug’.
 

stonedywankanobe

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"Maybe only a guess to you Argent but I consider it dead nuts on! I see only a shallow correction at most with the bedrock bottom at 38 bucks an ounce. Low 40's is more likely. Anybody thinking they are going to get 20 dollar or low 30 dollar Silver will not be getting any Silver. No soup for them!

Note: Any correction I am talking about is after we blow through 50 in a few weeks."

~Anonymous economist , April 2011
 

Goldhedge

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One tweet, or something going on behind the scenes... we don’t yet know about...?