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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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This time definitely feels different. Different drivers.

There is an actual war going on over global reserve currency. Europe built a SWIFT bypass - Russia wants to join it. China flexing their muscles. Trump waging economic war on the entire planet it seems like.

The world would like to wrest it away from the USD...which would end the US empire.

This game is for all the marbles...and I think gold is responding to that. So much insecurity out there. Political establishments being upended around the world...Italy, UK, Brazil, US, Hong Kong. Currency wars are heating up.

I think it will be important for us all to keep the longer term charts in mind on a continual basis. Preferably from the quarterly to the 4 hour...I think it will be very, very challenging to short term trade. Its gonna become too volatile. Stake your claim and brave it out. Sit tight and be right. Wisdom from Jesse Livermore...arguably one of the best traders of all time...
 

Zed

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Gold 30m ---> The long tails down into the recent low were the clue to the power of the reaction IMO. Straight up into resistance setup on the 19th of last month. We have a potential high level consolidation developing here, flag/pennant whatever! It projects 1485 on a successful break... I guess that fits with Louky's 1449, we'd need to crack that with momentum to be happy that there is another upward break in play. What is the top of that box? Does it match the 1485 number give or take?

AUUSD-30M-20190802-1.png
 

Zed

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Louky! What is the top of the 1449 box? Have you got that number yet?
 

Uglytruth

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Can anyone blame any other country for trying to get out from under the USD? It's caused them pain for years. If they can be a whale & kill a few bystanders so long as they are not getting hurt....... it's all fair in manipulation & tariff wars. It should have never gotten to this point but it's been like this for so long no one remembers what "fair" is.
 

Strawboss

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Its entirely possible that the politicians have concluded that there is no alternative to the USD...not the Yuan, nor the Euro, nor the Yen. There is NOTHING else out there...

And since the rest of the world is stuck with using USDs - the politicians can "borrow" them in whatever quantities it so desires...

Whats the rest of the world gonna do? Trade with gold?

And thats why they call it an exorbitant privilege...which our politicians are leveraging to the max...

Is Trump running up the credit cards while the gettings good?

Is this a play to destroy the rest of worlds economies to impose an imperial tax on the realm via "trade deals" and tariffs?

From a fiscal sanity perspective...we have completely run off the rails...and the train is barreling downhill...

Rambling thoughts...
 

Zed

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1494 is the top of that box Zed. Ive got me eye on this box and pivot stuff.

Very interesting. Not like some vague bullcrap wave nonsense.
Near enough to the flag projection!
 

Zed

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Its entirely possible that the politicians have concluded that there is no alternative to the USD...not the Yuan, nor the Euro, nor the Yen. There is NOTHING else out there...
In the end, when all else breaks down in one way or another they know its only gold that will stand the test of time... Central Banks buy gold for only one reason.

Which of course is why they love to hate it! and... IMO the less they have the more they hate it!

Seen that publicly owned gold of yours lately?

I'm sure Uncle Sam is on the up and up... but, you know, could be that...
 

Strawboss

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In the end, when all else breaks down in one way or another they know its only gold that will stand the test of time... Central Banks buy gold for only one reason.

Which of course is why they love to hate it! and... IMO the less they have the more they hate it!

Seen that publicly owned gold of yours lately?

I'm sure Uncle Sam is on the up and up... but, you know, could be that...
Hey bro - whats dat word re-hypothecate mean? And leasing gold? How do I lease me some gold?
 

Zed

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Talk about one heck of a reversal! Unfortunately I have a hard time trusting market movements based off tweets.
This pop was baked into the market, someone was tape painting and it isn't working that well anymore because the primary trend has gains strength. This is the market reaction to aggressive and fundamentally unsupported shorting.
 

Zed

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Hey bro - whats dat word re-hypothecate mean? And leasing gold? How do I lease me some gold?
Are you in the Club? I don't recognize you? Give me the secret hand shake!

 

Goldhedge

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Its entirely possible that the politicians have concluded that there is no alternative to the USD...not the Yuan, nor the Euro, nor the Yen. There is NOTHING else out there...
It's been tossed about that there have been many 'versions' of the dollar since its inception.

The original gold backed dollar that was displaced by the Green-backed dollar which was displaced by the Federal Reserve note. The 1944 Bretton Woods dollar ran parallel to the Petro dollar until 1971 when it switched over seamlessly.

We had no clue.

I suspect there's yet another 'version' of the dollar in the works already... maybe bitcoin?
 

Strawboss

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I suspect there's yet another 'version' of the dollar in the works already... maybe bitcoin?
Your guess is as good as mine....
 

Strawboss

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Are you in the Club? I don't recognize you? Give me the secret hand shake!

I have the secret code...

:letmeinyoufuckingAussiedick///yomommawearscombatboots#knockknock...awcomeonletmein_pleasewithsugarontop
 

Zed

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Gold 30min --> Back onto support and oversold. There looks to be fight back for the shorts here! Relief rally looks imminent. Hopefully we challenge or break the near term high here.

AUUSD-30M-20190802-2.png
 

Zed

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Uglytruth

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Your guess is as good as mine....
My guess is it's state (deep state) funded like musk is funded.... I also think it will be global not by country.

Facebook’s launch of its own digital currency could yield billions in additional revenue for the firm. The social network has been reportedly developing its own stable-coin, although precise details of the project remain limited.
 

Zed

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Facebook’s launch of its own digital currency could yield billions in additional revenue for the firm. The social network has been reportedly developing its own stable-coin, although precise details of the project remain limited.
Watching that trade will be interesting. I wonder what level of trust Facebook has out there in LALA land?
 

Zed

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Martin Armstrong said:
I focus on building 7, which was never hit by any plane, yet it fell like a pancake and that was indicative of explosives. Curiously, the SEC was there and this is where they kept the evidence for court cases. Gun possession cases should have been dismissed but the prosecutors then showed photos of guns. The joke was that they used the same photo for everyone. Judges just accepted it and pronounced, “Take him away.” That is not the way the law is supposed to work.


I had tapes that would have put the whole New York banker crew in prison if we had a real government. There were tapes covering every manipulation they pulled off from rhodium to platinum and silver. It was the platinum manipulation that I had a tape of where they admitted to bribing to a Russian minister to “recall” their platinum to take an inventory. They forced platinum to rally, then the Russian minister announced they found “more” platinum to ensure the price would crash after they flipped their positions. Even Ford Motor Company was looking into suing over that manipulation.


All the evidence I had documenting each player and what they did was seized and vanished. My requests for documents were never honored. One is supposed to be entitled to discovery. There is no rule of law. You cannot win against the bankers. When I asked a New York lawyer why the bankers are never prosecuted, he smiles and laughed. His response: “You don’t shit where you eat!”


We will never have a secure financial market until someone is ready to clean up the corruption in New York City.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/conspiracy/was-911-a-plot-to-seize-power/

Yet I remember him getting out of jail and poo, pooing the gold manipulation claims. I always thought that his change in tune from those 'notes from prison' to him being free had something to do with the deal that set him free.

Cynical?

Me?

Never....
 

Goldhedge

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Entire German Curve Drops Below Zero For First Time Ever
August 2, 2019

Somewhere, Albert Edwards is dancing a jig as the ice age he predicted will grip the world, appears to finally be here.

While global equities are sharply lower today following the end of the US-China trade ceasefire, it’s nothing compared to what is going on in the bond market, where one day after the 10Y US Treasury plunged a whopping 6% to 1.832% – the biggest one day drop since Brexit – to the lowest since the Trump election…




... the real show is in Germany, where not only did German 10Y Bunds tumble to the lowest on record, sliding to -0.503%, far below the ECB's -0.40% deposit rate, the highlight was the plunge in 30Y yield, which today dropped below 0%...





... dragging the entire German yield curve in negative territory for the first time ever.



As such, Germany joined Denmark and Switzerland in offering negative returns across all maturities, and assuring losses to all investors should notes be held to maturity, taking the total stock of investment-grade debt yielding less than 0% above $14 trillion globally.


Enter "Japanification": as Bloomberg notes, "the move will add to fears that the region’s economic slowdown is being driven by more structural factors akin to Japan’s lost decade", which is ironic because not even Japan's 30Ys trade negative. Germany’s bond market is widely perceived as being one of the world’s safest, with investors lured in by the liquidity and credit quality offered. Funds still looking to extract a positive return from European sovereign assets have been forced further out the yield curve or into riskier debt markets such as Italy. And as of today, anyone investing in German paper is guaranteed to lose money if holding to maturity.

"It underlines that the hunt for yield, or rather hunt to avoid negative yields, is accelerating day by day,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of fixed-income research at Danske Bank A/S. “It just makes things more complicated."

In addition to fears about a German recession sparked by the renewed Trump tariff threat, Germany’s bond market is also plagued by a problem of scarcity, with the government mandated by law to effectively maintain a budget surplus. The ECB holds nearly a third of the existing debt, leaving less to trade, which has helped to compress yields even further.



"It is a combination of a very uncertain economic outlook, a central bank that left all doors open in terms of new easing measures, the absence of inflation and vigorous search for yield,” said Nordea Bank chief strategist Jan von Gerich. "It was almost bound to happen."
 

Joe King

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Strawboss

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Detroit Lions.

Super Bowl

Best bet in Vegas right now. The odds are right. The team is right. The coaches/admin are right...

Its gonna happen...
 
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Detroit Lions.

Super Bowl

Best bet in Vegas right now. The odds are right. The team is right. The coaches/admin are right...

Its gonna happen...
We'll see, I'm taking a pretty risky bet on Jacksonville Jaguars to win the whole thing. They got Foles and so far from what I'm reading, critics are calling him a lousy Journeyman QB (another way of saying he's not better than a high school QB).
 

Zed

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I don't want to say anything.
Don't, someone is shorting/bailing out of my star gold stock today! Not sure who knows what?!
 

Weatherman

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I have been surprised at how strong silver has been over the past few weeks. The speculation below that China could be the big buyer adds a possible new perspective to consider:

Interestingly we have seen several precious metals analysts suggest that something quite interesting is taking place in the silver market. For example, Alasdair Macleod wrote an article; A Whale Is Accumulating Silver Futures, implying that the Chinese government may indeed be acquiring a significant long position in the silver market. Macleod believes China may be going long silver, via the futures market, to protect its supply by hedging as the price heads higher in the future.

The Chinese curse, May you live in interesting times, seems appropriate here. Good luck to all of us!
Let's start a rumor! IF there is a silver buying whale, and IF it has deep pockets (like China for example), what would happen IF it decides to take delivery of physical silver in September or December? The price of silver could skyrocket well beyond the moon!! Many banksters who are always massively short could learn why that may not be a good strategy with an essential commodity that has limited supply.
A Whale Is Accumulating Silver Futures
 

Cigarlover

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what would happen IF it decides to take delivery of physical silver in September or December?
That there is the question of the decade. Prices soar? Comex defaults? The shorts get squeeze to infinity and they go bust? So what happens to the long contracts when there is 0 metals backing them? Do they become worthless or rise to infinity with the physical market?
 

Weatherman

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That there is the question of the decade. Prices soar? Comex defaults? The shorts get squeeze to infinity and they go bust? So what happens to the long contracts when there is 0 metals backing them? Do they become worthless or rise to infinity with the physical market?
I think it is a safe bet that the CRIMEx will change to delivery by fiat cash, instead of physical, and they will keep what little physical they have. But the price of silver would soar (and so too would the premium to physical), and the banksters could be on the hook for trillions to cash out their shorts. No problem there. The FED will simply print the trillions to bail the banksters out.
 

Zed

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Let's start a rumor! IF there is a silver buying whale, and IF it has deep pockets (like China for example), what would happen IF it decides to take delivery of physical silver in September or December? The price of silver could skyrocket well beyond the moon!! Many banksters who are always massively short could learn why that may not be a good strategy with an essential commodity that has limited supply.
A Whale Is Accumulating Silver Futures
I really don't want to poo on the parade but...

China 'taking delivery' of any meaningful amount from the Comex would be spun as manipulation quicker than you could blink and they'd be hung out to dry with extreme prejudice, it'd make the Hunts look like a slap on the wrists... and they know it.

IF it is China and Bulter is wrong about things then they will have to be way smoother than that... and I think that they'd realize as much.
 
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Zed

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I think it is a safe bet that the CRIMEx will change to delivery by fiat cash, instead of physical, and they will keep what little physical they have. But the price of silver would soar (and so too would the premium to physical), and the banksters could be on the hook for trillions to cash out their shorts. No problem there. The FED will simply print the trillions to bail the banksters out.
Not if they sold enough short and where allowed to settle in cash. Blocking delivery means that the deepest pockets win and given the, no doubt, asymmetric way that position limits would be applied it would be all too easy to contain things on the Comex.

Mind you cash settlement would have to lead to some loss of faith in the exchange, I'd be interested to see the market reaction but you'd have to think it would send a message to market, one that they'd be keen to avoid sending!
 
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