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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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I would agree that we are in a new bull phase but miners have not convinced me that they know how to operate at a profit. I would be looking more at takeover targets. Just my 2 cents.
What are your top 3 takeover targets?
 

Zed

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Kyle has had his knives sharpened for this for quite some time!
 

Strawboss

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Kyle has had his knives sharpened for this for quite some time!
Kyle is my "go to" resource for all things China...
 

Zed

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~+5% on the ASX gold stock front today.
 

Zed

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Gold 4H - Starting to hit the top of short and longer term channels. The green line is a monthly channel so we have to close out the month over it to constitute a break. This could be about the limit for now. A full channel retracement could see us back to 1270 odd! No reason to get that pessimistic just yet, for now, and assuming this resistance holds, we have a good chance of support @ ~1420 then maybe ~1400 That would establish a bit of a bullish channel on the weekly and set us up for the next upleg. Sooooooo... I'm now thinking that we give back ~$60/$70 or so... maybe a little more. Could take into Oct!

This is all assuming that we don't break up out of this current longer term channel! Always one eye to the positive... :-)

XAUUSD-4H-20190807-1.png
 
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louky

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Posted many times, for years about watching exk, auy at 2 dollar level. Even gave detailed breakdown of what i would watch for last year
AUY might be worth a look around 2 bucks
last two times auy was at 2 dollar level, for reference


View attachment 115073

View attachment 115074
when it doesn't "act right" at 2, then wait to look lower, next attempt at 1.70 area maybe, down to 1.50. otherwise, if it takes back 2 it can be a cash machine. not advice to buy, just showing what i would look at with price only.


View attachment 115075
"1.70-1.50 next attempt"

Screenshot_20190807-065717_Google.jpg


then see here on the older chart, the one single time it failed to recapture 1.98...the long candle/wick marked with arrows. that's when it dropped another ~20% like 2015/16



View attachment 115076
That 2 dollar level again, "cash register"

Screenshot_20190807-063051_Google.jpg
 
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louky

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279 Spy, ~2790 s&pwhistle:

2019 Aug 5, 2800 May 23: 2800 May 13: 2800 Mar 28: 2800 Mar 15: 2800 Feb 24: 2800

2018 Dec 3: 2800 Nov 7: 2800 Oct 17: 2800 Oct 10: 2800 Aug 15: 2800 Aug 2: 2800 July 20: 2800 June 13: 2800 Mar 13: 2800 Jan 16: 2800
 

Strawboss

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As far as bears are concerned, on the longer time frame, it's just a retrace of the 2015 low

If B is a Wave II bottom - then that would suggest a different scenario...but your point is well taken. Always keeping bull/bear scenarios top of mind is essential to survival in these markets...
 

Rip Van Winkle

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I see the pre-33 gold 64 grade or higher has done better than spot over the past few months. I liked that play because of double exposure, gold spot and numismatic appreciation.
 

Strawboss

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I see the pre-33 gold 64 grade or higher has done better than spot over the past few months. I liked that play because of double exposure, gold spot and numismatic appreciation.
I used to know a guy that what you describe was his thing...

He used to compare it to using options. More volatility...less liquidity...but potentially outsized returns...

Hope all is well with you and yours...
 

louky

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If B is a Wave II bottom - then that would suggest a different scenario...but your point is well taken. Always keeping bull/bear scenarios top of mind is essential to survival in these markets...
I'm not familiar with any concepts/principles of elliot wave. This is a monthly abc pattern with fib targets. Not my primary view like when i was pounding the table for months about april 2018 top, but something to be aware of. My primary concern for something crazy is potential culmination top in or around august 2020. But of course that's just guess work, we'll see.
 
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bemac

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I see the pre-33 gold 64 grade or higher has done better than spot over the past few months. I liked that play because of double exposure, gold spot and numismatic appreciation.
Personally, the vast majority of my numi hedge is of foreign coins, much more enticing valuations, IMHO.
 
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I noticed that Disney got slaughtered on last night earnings. There are a ton of jobs that keeps Disney up and running from contractors to part time employees. It's no joke and I think Disney is a barometer for what's to come. It may have helped gold bump up overnight.
 

Zed

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I'm wondering about the difference in the gold numbers comming out of Investing.com vs other sources. Anyone know the reason?
 

Strawboss

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So far so good, has to have support on 17.19, as always, for this to happen
Is your calculations for silver the same as gold? In terms of identifying the boxes/pivots?
 

Zed

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After 2016 drop and being caught only looking one direction, thinking i couldn't be wrong....learned to keep both sides in consideration
That price projection implies something RADICALLY altering from here. That would be a USD melt up of EPIC proportion... which would be followed by an inevitable EPIC crash!

I guess that is not the only way we could get there but given my bias I can't see a more obvious one.
 

Rip Van Winkle

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Louky what exactly is a box? Is it a bracket of probabilities?
 

Zed

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The thing here is that, at least I believe, the situation is similar to when the USA finally became the truly dominant super power and the UK basically went broke. They both went into the Great Depression on shaky ground and they both suffered but the USA, being fundamentally better off, came out of it as champion of the world. I question if that isn't the case with China and the USA going into whatever this crisis becomes.


One of the challanges for us is that this time we have vastly different political systems. What ideology will win out in we go this way? I have the uneasy feeling that the Marxist will get the opportuniy to fail, at least I believe they will fail, on a global scale. This next crisis could be the one that is used to bury capitalism on largely false pretenses. Even the generational attitudes seem to support a heavy swing left... I think we are looking straight down the barrel of a global fuck up.
 

Zed

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You may have noticed I'm twittering... well I'm not tweeting but I am following a bunch of commentators that I respect. I guess it has some value to me after all, so long as I don't tweet I will be fine!

 

Strawboss

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You may have noticed I'm twittering... well I'm not tweeting but I am following a bunch of commentators that I respect. I guess it has some value to me after all, so long as I don't tweet I will be fine!

I agree with your outlook re: leftists getting the reins...and how that will play out...

What a lot of people arent taking into consideration is what Armstrong has been talking about re: international capital flows. When the Euro starts to go tits up - there is going to be a HUGE flow of capital into the US - and that money has to go somewheres...bonds, gold, stocks, real estate - its all gonna get bid higher...

And then the Yen will follow the Euro...another wave of incoming capital flows...

The dollar will get so strong it will break the rest of the world as most contracts are denominated in USD.

And then finally - the US will sink like the Titanic...

Well - thats Armstrongs thesis in summary...
 

Zed

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Zed

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What a lot of people arent taking into consideration is what Armstrong has been talking about re: international capital flows. When the Euro starts to go tits up - there is going to be a HUGE flow of capital into the US - and that money has to go somewheres...bonds, gold, stocks, real estate - its all gonna get bid higher...
The melt up in the US could be astounding and damaging and it only takes a small % to prefer gold (Old school Europeans get gold after all.) and both will fly. It looks crystal clear to me but I still rarely see that outcome predicted. More so now than just post 2008 when I first began to think this was not only possible but probable.
 

Strawboss

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I seriously doubt we crack it first time, a couple of months digesting this could easily occur. I dunno... looks like it maybe trowing my initial guesstimate off.
$1503 is the pivot.
The melt up in the US could be astounding and damaging and it only takes a small % to prefer gold (Old school Europeans get gold after all.) and both will fly. It looks crystal clear to me but I still rarely see that outcome predicted. More so now than just post 2008 when I first began to think this was not only possible but probable.
I have learned over the years to not discount what Armstrong says...and I am pretty sure there are a lot of whales that have also come to the same conclusion.
 

Zed

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As far as bears are concerned, on the longer time frame, it's just a retrace of the 2015 low


If gold melts up with the USD will it then crash with the USD after the melt up?... or does it, as the goldbugs have it, win both ways?
 

Zed

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I have learned over the years to not discount what Armstrong says...and I am pretty sure there are a lot of whales that have also come to the same conclusion.
When he has his conferences there is over a $T in the room... so yes, even if his ideas turn out half baked (not that I am suggesting they are) he has the ear of some serious $ volume.