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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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When he has his conferences there is over a $T in the room... so yes, even if his ideas turn out half baked (not that I am suggesting they are) he has the ear of some serious $ volume.
And there is the secret to successful investing/trading.

Figure out what the big money is doing and ride the coattails...
 

Zed

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Gold 15M - Triangle consolidation break out? Kiss and go? Hong Kong session coming up ... more capital flight? I dunno... watch this space, could be a fun day.

XAUUSD-15M-20190808-1.png
 

Uglytruth

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The melt up in the US could be astounding and damaging and it only takes a small % to prefer gold (Old school Europeans get gold after all.) and both will fly. It looks crystal clear to me but I still rarely see that outcome predicted. More so now than just post 2008 when I first began to think this was not only possible but probable.
So what you are saying is metal takes a huge ride up, then crashes back to fake reality or worse real reality.
There was no place to hide on the way up and no place to hide on the way down.
If this happens what comes out the other side is a new system of whatever, socialism, communism, digital everything and there is no place for reality.
 

Zed

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So what you are saying is metal takes a huge ride up, then crashes back to fake reality or worse real reality.
I dunno for sure but I am convinced gold goes up with the USD... after that I can see why gold may go up again off the back of a falling USD BUT I can see that it might not due to a combination of factors. One of those factors is the currently unknowable ---> How will .gov play it's hand? I am sure there is a plan... I'm not sure it is a good one. Crypto appears to be coming @ us in some form and it will need a decent crisis to usher it in with sufficient political support. OFF COURSE the left and cultural Marxist will love the added degree of control that it will most probably offer! Who knows really... all just Lunatic Fringe speculation!
 

Strawboss

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So what you are saying is metal takes a huge ride up, then crashes back to fake reality or worse real reality.
There was no place to hide on the way up and no place to hide on the way down.
If this happens what comes out the other side is a new system of whatever, socialism, communism, digital everything and there is no place for reality.
Its gonna be a WILD ride...with HUGE volatility.

Another reason I have bought LEAP options. As the volatility rises...the value of the options go up - even if the price doesnt...
 

Goldhedge

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If gold and the dollar go up, wouldn't you be able to buy gold at par?
 

Zed

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That's a $64,000 question you got there. I'm not sure about that one.
Feel free to discuss it, we need to work out the arguments for and against!
 

Zed

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If gold and the dollar go up, wouldn't you be able to buy gold at par?
It implies that golds value is moving up faster than the USD's value. Not sure what you are asking, but it is a double bump for me in AUD and a single bump for you in USD. At the end of the USD's rise the question for you guys is --> what next? Gold, maybe, yes... but is it the best move? I dunno yet.
 

Strawboss

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I dunno for sure but I am convinced gold goes up with the USD... after that I can see why gold may go up again off the back of a falling USD BUT I can see that it might not due to a combination of factors. One of those factors is the currently unknowable ---> How will .gov play it's hand? I am sure there is a plan... I'm not sure it is a good one. Crypto appears to be coming @ us in some form and it will need a decent crisis to usher it in with sufficient political support. OFF COURSE the left and cultural Marxist will love the added degree of control that it will most probably offer! Who knows really... all just Lunatic Fringe speculation!
Couple of points...

1. Golds ultimate purpose is to allow the transition of wealth from one currency to another...while storing its value in the meantime.
2. At some point - we are going to end up with a ONE world currency.
3. If everyone is trapped in a ONE world currency - there is no reason to keep value stored in gold because there is no alternative currency to transfer the stored wealth into.
4. When gold no longer has a monetary "purpose" - it will revert to its functional value as an adornment (jewelry).
5. The Bible predicts that a day will come where people that believe gold will deliver them from the day of God's wrath will be throwing their gold in the streets.

Points 1-4 give credence (in my mind) about how point 5 could materialize...
 
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Feel free to discuss it, we need to work out the arguments for and against!
If usd goes down, that may mean that the world stop pouring money into us markets, and everything including gold lose footing. cash may be king in that one. that would be some kind of deflationary spiral. A strong dollar helps international businesses to sell things at home USA because it makes imports cheaper. A weaker usd will do the opposite.

nice article on it: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/051415/pros-cons-strong-dollar.asp

Is the world awash with cash? I have a hard time believing it.
 
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Strawboss

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If usd goes down, that may mean that the world stop pouring money into us markets, and everything including gold lose footing. cash may be king in that one. that would be some kind of deflationary spiral. A strong dollar helps international businesses to sell things at home USA because it makes imports cheaper. A weaker usd will do the opposite.

nice article on it: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/051415/pros-cons-strong-dollar.asp

Is the world awash with cash? I have a hard time believing it.
You are assuming that gold is simply reacting to a monetary phenomenom...

While that is partly correct - gold currently has several other drivers...

Iran
N. Korea
China
Euro
Japan
Turkey
India/Pakistan
Negative Interest rates
American politics/potential for massive civil unrest
Deutche Bank
Deflationary global environment
US budget deficits

Gold has many, many tailwinds right now...
 

Zed

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When gold no longer has a monetary "purpose" - it will revert to its functional value as an adornment (jewelry).
A functional monetary system, outside of gold, that offers the opportunity of a real return is what will lower golds value in the end. That may not be your system in the USA. If you can get a better return then why hold gold?
 

Zed

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Gold 15M - Triangle consolidation break out? Kiss and go? Hong Kong session coming up ... more capital flight? I dunno... watch this space, could be a fun day.

View attachment 138234
The pattern just broke DOWN!
 

Goldhedge

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It implies that golds value is moving up faster than the USD's value. Not sure what you are asking, but it is a double bump for me in AUD and a single bump for you in USD. At the end of the USD's rise the question for you guys is --> what next? Gold, maybe, yes... but is it the best move? I dunno yet.
if Gold doubles and the dollar doubles there's no gain
 

Uglytruth

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A functional monetary system, outside of gold, that offers the opportunity of a real return is what will lower golds value in the end. That may not be your system in the USA. If you can get a better return then why hold gold?
If interest rates were 5%+ or where they should be without QE forever how many would have bought gold to begin with? Where would prices really be?
Kinda like the tulip mania in slow notion.

If you had bought in say 1980 and held for 40 years now your just an old man with gold and no returns on what could have been compound interest on top of compound interest on your investment. Heck one could have bought most anything and let inflation do the dirty work if you wanted to hold something.........

Guy at work just got a new phone. Told me Verizon at the end of the year is doing away with 1G,2G,3G and everyone will have to move to smart phones. To me that is ushering in the path way to digital. Even if they put it off a few years it's coming.......
 
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You are assuming that gold is simply reacting to a monetary phenomenom...

While that is partly correct - gold currently has several other drivers...

Iran
N. Korea
China
Euro
Japan
Turkey
India/Pakistan
Negative Interest rates
American politics/potential for massive civil unrest
Deutche Bank
Deflationary global environment
US budget deficits

Gold has many, many tailwinds right now...
If I had to pick out from the whole list, I think Negative Interest rates may be highest up on the list now following out of control US debts. World countries aren't going anywhere anytime soon and they probably just distract US. The lowest on the list (I just added myself) maybe the President's twitter tweets lol.
 

sandblaster

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Thank you everyone on the thread, I don't get all of it, but there are no better global teachers than ones here within. I'm getting it little by little. There can be no doubt the members gathered here will come out the winners. Thank you for selflessly trying to impart knowledge on us all. Can I get a hankie?
 

Zed

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Zed

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If interest rates were 5%+ or where they should be without QE forever how many would have bought gold to begin with? Where would prices really be?
Kinda like the tulip mania in slow notion.

If you had bought in say 1980 and held for 40 years now your just an old man with gold and no returns on what could have been compound interest on top of compound interest on your investment. Heck one could have bought most anything and let inflation do the dirty work if you wanted to hold something.........

Guy at work just got a new phone. Told me Verizon at the end of the year is doing away with 1G,2G,3G and everyone will have to move to smart phones. To me that is ushering in the path way to digital. Even if they put it off a few years it's coming.......
I don't think 1G and 2G work here anymore!
 

Zed

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if Gold doubles and the dollar doubles there's no gain
No... what will happen is gold will double in USD which will say double in other currencies.
 

Strawboss

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Investing.com's data has it bouncing off 1503?!
Thats the pivot (using louky's vernacular)...Its the bottom number of the "space"between the "boxes".
 

Zed

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I like Nenner. He seems like he is cut from similar cloth as Wolf Richter.
He has huge faith in his cycles model, it seems to hit some good winners. He gets called out on some losers in the comments BUT you know, any perfect T/A system would have you richer than god in a few years and then you'd be the market and then it would fail. All of this stuff carries the seeds of its own destruction, the market loves popular until it doesn't.
 

Zed

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Thats the pivot (using louky's vernacular)...Its the bottom number of the "space"between the "boxes".
Yes... been watching it.
 

Zed

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Could be putting the call out to sell $1600... fits in with my original view of the charts. High 15's still looks doable on my read of the charts. Lets see how we handle this new altitude.
 

Strawboss

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I picked up some HL options.

Yeah - its garbage picking...but in a bull - even the pigs fly...

Also saw IAG got punched in the face this morning...figure give it a couple of days to completely puke whatever and then maybe go digging in that garbage can too...
 

Goldhedge

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I met a madman 3-4 years ago. He kept posting some insane gold theme over and over with minor tweaks, but same general time frames and pattern. 1500 in August 2019, pfft....lunatic

A lunatic you say...?
 
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I wouldn't want to short gold this early in this markets. It looks like a concerted effort by the "INTL" Feds to lower interest rates to negative territory, US Feds do not have the power to influence world markets. It won't stop the interest rate armageddon if the "World" Dow hasn't reach their targets. What are their targets for the World Dow? No one knows and that's secretly in the hands of the "INTL" Federal Reserve. This is my opinion as far as the beholden see.
 
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