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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

davycoppitt

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I picked up some HL options.

Yeah - its garbage picking...but in a bull - even the pigs fly...

Also saw IAG got punched in the face this morning...figure give it a couple of days to completely puke whatever and then maybe go digging in that garbage can too...

Also picked up some HL yesterday on the dip. Not much, just a starter.
 

Strawboss

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Also picked up some HL yesterday on the dip. Not much, just a starter.
Buy the $3 Jan 2020 calls. I grabbed some today for .10.

Au-Myn turned me onto this trade and this specific option contract. I think its gonna be a winner.
 
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I'm also wondering that the government is giving President Trump too much power, he ends up having more authority over the Fed Reserve.
 

Zed

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Gold USD 4H - Dare I say it, considering that it feels like we are edging closer to the inevitable correction! Another flag looking consolidation is developing on the 4 hour chart. Targets approximated, the classic being a 100% of the pole on top of the breakout level. Breakout looks like +1518 with some passion and 100% looks like 1627... topping the initial projection of 1595 odd.

"Shultz's Law" would have 1629 as the resistance point! and 1602 as the pivot... errrrr, I think.

XAUUSD-4H-20190809-1.png


Nervously bullish here... feeling unsure about this but it would fit with my initial take on things.
 
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Zed

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Gold USD 4H - Dare I say it, considering that it feels like we are edging closer to the inevitable correction! Another flag looking consolidation is developing on the 4 hour chart. Targets approximated, the classic being a 100% of the pole on top of the breakout level. Breakout looks like +1518 with some passion and 100% looks like 1627... topping the initial projection of 1595 odd.

"Shultz's Law" would have 1629 as the resistance point! and 1603 as the pivot... errrrr, I think.

View attachment 138291

Nervously bullish here... feeling unsure about this but it would fit with my initial take on things.
that's a pretty chart... its like upped the stop order on every move. My next target is One World Trade Center, New York - 1,776 Feet = $1,766 in gold.
 

Strawboss

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Gold USD 4H - Dare I say it, considering that it feels like we are edging closer to the inevitable correction! Another flag looking consolidation is developing on the 4 hour chart. Targets approximated, the classic being a 100% of the pole on top of the breakout level. Breakout looks like +1518 with some passion and 100% looks like 1627... topping the initial projection of 1595 odd.

"Shultz's Law" would have 1629 as the resistance point! and 1603 as the pivot... errrrr, I think.

View attachment 138291

Nervously bullish here... feeling unsure about this but it would fit with my initial take on things.
I double checked your math on Shultz's Law and you were off by a dollar on the pivot. (this is gonna be fun. Do you think Sgt. Schultz will be mad?)

I sold 1/3 of my options today. Intend on running with the other 2/3. Will re-enter on a correction. I am also a bit nervous...especially with GDXJ showing negative divergence on the daily. But with so many drivers pushing gold...and how weak the selling attempts are...it just "feels" like it wants to push higher... Just not willing to bet the whole farm on it...only 2/3.

Bought some HL options and am gonna go garbage picking on IAG either tomorrow or Monday. Pigs ought to start flying here pretty soon...
 

Zed

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Zed

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I double checked your math on Shultz's Law and you were off by a dollar on the pivot. (this is gonna be fun. Do you think Sgt. Schultz will be mad?)

I sold 1/3 of my options today. Intend on running with the other 2/3. Will re-enter on a correction. I am also a bit nervous...especially with GDXJ showing negative divergence on the daily. But with so many drivers pushing gold...and how weak the selling attempts are...it just "feels" like it wants to push higher... Just not willing to bet the whole farm on it...only 2/3.

Bought some HL options and am gonna go garbage picking on IAG either tomorrow or Monday. Pigs ought to start flying here pretty soon...
Sorry typo, it is correct on the spreadsheet. Doing tax today, split focus.
 
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Strawboss

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Sorry typo, it is correct on the spreadsheet. Doing tax today, split focus.
Rule #1 - You never talk about the spreadsheet.
Rule #2 - You NEVER talk about the spreadsheet.

That is all...
 

Zed

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Rule #1 - You never talk about the spreadsheet.
Rule #2 - You NEVER talk about the spreadsheet.

That is all...
There.... FIXED!
 

Strawboss

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Hey Zed - make sure to let us know how the market closes down under...

Good night sir!
 

Zed

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Hey Zed - make sure to let us know how the market closes down under...

Good night sir!
Soft right now, Friday nerves setting in! Will see how we close, two hours to trade.
 

Zed

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-~2% on the close down here. Clearly a few people getting nervous about a correction!
 

Rip Van Winkle

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louky, you're a fellow slickdealer? Any boxes for Platinum?
 

Strawboss

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Just picked up some DUST calls. Looking likely that a correction is incoming...

Still gonna keep the rest of my LEAPS - so if I am right - it should help mitigate the short term damage from a correction...
 

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I see a good chance of one last squeek higher before correcting, but I'm not putting money on that yet. I've exited most of my <6 month call options a couple days ago on the last big push. I've picked up a few put options, but no sizeable position yet. Strong moves like this often push a little more than you'd think, but sometimes not. Anyway, I'm rambling now. Just watching for now. I want to see how we close this week.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Gold Monthly - With copper in the background. The monetary metal vs the industrial metal. 2009-11 Liquidity raising all boats... typically gold rises and falls in line with good times and bad when it is in normal trading mode. Then there are the times that it becomes a hedge against the system not functioning like it should (negative rates anyone?) Note that gold and copper started to have differing views of the world in 2016, then they settled down, spot the liquidity injection, and the lag to copper reflecting it. Come mid 2019 and we appear to have agreed to go our separate ways. Is this a fundamental shift? Is this gold flagging that this time is not quite like last time? Do we heed the lessons of the first half of the bull market or have the rules changed? Is gold shifting gear here?

XAUUSD-M-20190819-1.png
 
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Zed

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Gold Copper Ratio - Rising stress? Note where we were in 2011 v 2016 v now...

sc.png
 

Goldhedge

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I remember when CU went through the roof. Housing prices bumped up. Probably why PEX is so popular....
 

Goldhedge

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Waiting for one of those mysterious paper gold contracts to show up that slaps gold back down to $1300... or less....
 
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Gold Monthly - With copper in the background. The monetary metal vs the industrial metal. 2009-11 Liquidity raising all boats... typically gold rises and falls in line with good times and bad when it is in normal trading mode. Then there are the times that it becomes a hedge against the system not functioning like it should (negative rates anyone?) Note that gold and copper started to have differing views of the world in 2016, then they settled down (spot the liquidity injection!) and the lag to copper reflecting it. Come mid 2019 and we appear to have agreed to go our separate ways. Is this a fundamental shift? Is this gold flagging that this time is not quite like last time? Do we heed the lessons of the first half of the bull market or have the rules changed? Is gold shifting gear here?

View attachment 138330
It used to be said that copper leads the metals complex. not anymore as copper fell out of demand and world economics don't see it as a valuable asset but it will rise if other assets are leading indicators but "copper" kind of drag along. gold went from 1460 to 1496 but GDXJ started with 41.33 and ended with 41.81 I'm not sure if that's a negative sign for holding metal stocks in the short term unless they are consolidating but will see.

* NOT sure if there was a massive drop in usd in around 4:30 eastern time. I'll have to wait until Mon *
 
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Strawboss

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THIS is the Zed that I know and appreciate so much!!!

Yeah - this time feels different - and your charts provide validation of that. Gold is making new highs in most currencies. The USD is lagging - but its coming. In order for gold to TRULY be in a bull market - it needs to rise in ALL currencies - which it has started to do. Armstrong talked about this...

The Euro is going to crash. If it isnt Brexit - it will be Italy that lights the fuse. And once the Euro crashes - the vigilantes are gonna start looking around and seeing "who's next"...which will be Japan...and after that crashes - the vigilantes will look around again and then the US will come into focus and they will drive it into the dirt...

So - I expect to see the USD skyrocket as first the Euro and then the Yen to crash...and then it will follow suit and crash leading to the introduction of a global currency...probably based on some form of crypto. At this point - we are talking mark of the beast sort of stuff...you know - the stuff prophesied in the Bible...Revelations...
 
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I remember that Armstrong said that the Feds will be forced to raise rates. If the Feds are powerless to do that then what gives? That's may give a bad signal to USD and send gold to unthinkable numbers. These are the infinite possibilities so cash may be getting harder now to be parked in the garage.
 

Zed

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I remember that Armstrong said that the Feds will be forced to raise rates. If the Feds are powerless to do that then what gives? That's may give a bad signal to USD and send gold to unthinkable numbers. These are the infinite possibilities so cash may be getting harder now to be parked in the garage.
USD Up rates Down, USD Down rates Up!

Martin probably can't have both the dollar up and rates up... I think.
 

Zed

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Waiting for one of those mysterious paper gold contracts to show up that slaps gold back down to $1300... or less....
Was a time that I'd get nailed to the cross by passionate GIMers for suggesting $40 down!

Now most goldbugs are resigned to that being the norm, I notice that Bob on 321gold is having his second go @ top calling here.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty080919.html

The thing is... this makes it less likely, not more... this place is still quite subdued and the market really hates letting anyone get it right. Bulls like to take the smallest number of riders possible.

If we have switched gear then pull backs may become quite shallow, you know, just because we got used to them being deep.

This is the perverse and ever changing nature of markets.

That said I do find myself in fear of a correction soonish... maybe we run $100 more but somewhere in here it just feels about due.
 
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Weatherman

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Gold Copper Ratio - Rising stress? Note where we were in 2011 v 2016 v now...

View attachment 138337
The ratio of silver to copper is also interesting. It factors out the common effects of industrial demand and inflation to highlight the low supply and precious metal component of silver. Compared to earlier rallies, silver still has a long way to appreciate.

MCU-W_zoom.jpg


More info at: When Will the Price of Silver Explode?
 

Zed

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Just by the way... the last gold bull up leg to the 2011 highs tended to correct to the %61.8 level. In this current move the first leg up to 1347 corrected to 1266 ~ 61.8%. The current projected move is to 1567 using classic T/A targeting, should we do that the correction from there should be ~1452. If this move plays like that it is looking very much like a wave 1,2,3 and 4 of an Elliot Impulse Wave. That implies that there will be a 5th wave up before a more serious ABC type correction. I'm looking at a weekly chart. Using the same targeting method the 5th wave up should target the 2011 high!

I'm not quite believing that, I will do the exercise again on Monday!
 

Strawboss

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Just by the way... the last gold bull up leg to the 2011 highs tended to correct to the %61.8 level. In this current move the first leg up to 1347 corrected to 1266 ~ 61.8%. The current projected move is to 1567 using classic T/A targeting, should we do that the correction from there should be ~1452. If this move plays like that it is looking very much like a wave 1,2,3 and 4 of an Elliot Impulse Wave. That implies that there will be a 5th wave up before a more serious ABC type correction. I'm looking at a weekly chart. Using the same targeting method the 5th wave up should target the 2011 high!

I'm not quite believing that, I will do the exercise again on Monday!
Including charts to show/explain your work so us feeble minded simpletons can follow your reasoning would be appreciated.
 
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Zed

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Bob has a very good track record so I can't discount him.
He does.



I'm just thinking out loud. Is there a shift in mind set here? Has the character of the market altered? The miners down here have trade better since 2016. They changed so what of gold? Feels different. JMO
 
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He does.



I'm just thinking out loud. Is there a shift in mind set here? Has the character of the market altered? The miners down here have trade better since 2016. They changed so what of gold? Feels different. JMO
Since June, "World" banks have been overly aggressive in lowering interest rates, it may have made a floor in gold and not so sure about the general stock market, Japan may provide cues when they did that in the past ended up with poor results.
 

Zed

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If you are searching for gold stocks using google what search term would you use? Investment/Income stocks, same question?
 

Zed

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Fooling around with Google Trends Data. The search Term "Gold Stocks" v GDX and GLD. Sort of a sentiment measure. Last 5 years!

GDXvTrends.png
GLDvTrends.png
GDX.png
 
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Zed

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So my question is --> What are the best search terms? I wonder if there is such a thing as a leading search term?! Nah... that'd be too easy!