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Zed

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More trends... might put the GDX over this one later.

TrendsIndividualGoldStocks.png
 

Strawboss

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He does.



I'm just thinking out loud. Is there a shift in mind set here? Has the character of the market altered? The miners down here have trade better since 2016. They changed so what of gold? Feels different. JMO
And that is precisely the point I have been trying to make.

I dont think that this can be successfully traded using traditional technical analysis...I think it has to be done more on "feel" than anything else...

There are literally so many drivers for gold right now. More than I can remember at any other time in my life. Any one of them ON ITS OWN could push gold...and yet we have at least 6 or so...

Iran
China (trade war)
Deficits
National debt
Brexit
Italy (potential to leave the Euro)
US potential for devolution into civil war
India/Pakstan (Kashmir)
Hong Kong
Federal Reserve (Trump attacks)

Ok - I underestimated...there are 10 drivers...TEN FUCKING DRIVERS that are pushing gold...

Shit - I forget Deutche Bank...

11 drivers...

Yeah - I dont think traditional technical analysis is gonna cut it...I think the right approach is to stake your claim...and sit tight...

Things are gonna get very, very volatile...
 

Zed

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Go rub ya crystal balls and tell me what you see!

TrendsIndividualGoldStocksvGDX.png
 

Zed

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Yeah - I dont think traditional technical analysis is gonna cut it...I think the right approach is to stake your claim...and sit tight...
It all gets distilled into price action... you just have to read it correctly.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Click on hte link. One you can put your own terms into. Others are miners.
OK...

I was meaning ---> What search terms would 'joe public' stick into google to find gold stocks etc... then I can use those terms in google trends to get a fix on the amount of searching on those terms as a proxy for sentiment.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Including charts to show/explain your work so us feeble minded simpletons can follow your reasoning would be appreciated.
Summin like this using a FIbo target and correction floor based on the last move. Not sure on the timing, would mean a high in the New Year at the earliest, contrary to my initial guesstimate. I would expect the correction to be shorter and more aggressive and the final rally to be steeper. The dynamic would be driven by over confident shorts going hard and buying a 61.8% correction fast then being pushed back hard onto the back foot with the final rally being a short covering exercise that puts the market into temporary over reach and drives an ABC correction into next year. If so you'd could reasonably expect the ABC to push us back into the 1550 area, or a ~50% correction, while the market digests the reasons for the move and makes up its mind on the fundamental drivers for it. This, IMO, would be the attention getter that gold needs to move forward with wider support from the institutions. Which in the broader context completes the first move in this bull leg (the smart money move) and puts us into the second move (the institutional or markup phase)...

JMBG and you know that I am full-o-shit!

XAUUSD-W-20190812-1.png
 

Zed

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BTW the Gold 4H is a high level consolidation projecting a $100 shot @ $1600 if it breaks northward. On a 4H closing basis we are looking for a decent break of ~1508 for a pattern resolution.
 

Zed

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~-2% open on the week down here. Nervous is not always a bad thing!
 

Zed

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Zed

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THE GOLD BULL MARKET IS HERE!

... well it feels a little bit like it at the moment.
 

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Zed

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Gold 4H - Flag, again, with classic target sitting over 1600. She has blown off steam and is looking due to rally again. Breaking up over, lets say 1510, oughta start the next move. Next stop down looks like the 1465 area should we fail to launch.

XAUUSD-4H-20190812-1.png
 

Zed

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How low can you actually go without crapping out?
 

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Zed

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Low USD?
 

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Zed

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The good old vampire squid!
 

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Zed

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I've thought we were back in 2005 too...

Listen to radio ads for mortgages... the only thing that hasn't happened is Congress critters telling us it's our 'right' to own a home.
 

jelly

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Miners appear to be taking a nuetral stance instead of leading gold higher like the miners did early in this move. Not a bad sign, but I take it to mean that we are getting close to the end of this move. I'm with Zed on this one, I think we get one final attempt higher before the correction begins. But like I've said, not putting money on it yet. I want to see how gold completes this consolidation.
 

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What a big divergence today! metal prices of gold is up a lot and paper gold stocks are down a lot. at some point they have to converge. I didn't see that coming :(((
 

Zed

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What a big divergence today! metal prices of gold is up a lot and paper gold stocks are down a lot. at some point they have to converge. I didn't see that coming :(((
Gold 4H - Just not convincing at the moment, failing to get 'break out' traction. This is what stocks are seeing, they believe this is the top.

XAUUSD-4H-20190813-1.png


... but that doesn't mean it is.
 
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What a big divergence today! metal prices of gold is up a lot and paper gold stocks are down a lot. at some point they have to converge. I didn't see that coming :(((
Metal in the ground is a theoretical value which is questionable unless the credit market is healthy enough to finance its extraction. Even after all the deleveraging and even neg rates, the Euro banking system circling the drain again and Brexiting ECB low on ammo, maybe even empty. The UK may have to airlift cash to Cyprus again. China, Kashmir, HongKong, US facing election, trade/currency wars everywhere and Big Bad Miners want to swallow up Juniors cheap to make up depleting reserves. Yes, the price will lag.
 
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Metal in the ground is a theoretical value which is questionable unless the credit market is healthy enough to finance its extraction. Even after all the deleveraging and even neg rates, the Euro banking system circling the drain again and Brexiting ECB low on ammo, maybe even empty. The UK may have to airlift cash to Cyprus again. China, Kashmir, HongKong, US facing election, trade/currency wars everywhere and Big Bad Miners want to swallow up Juniors cheap to make up depleting reserves. Yes, the price will lag.
What's your take on Royalty companies? I think that "niche" sector should be up on a day like this.
 

Zed

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I can't agree there... The price will respond according to the expected future, stock prices always discount expectations. So the question always is ---> Why are we leading or why are we lagging. Like the USD there is no static relationship because they are all a part of a complex system with nonlinear relationships.

Translated --> Almost anything can happen, your job is to understand why and what it means to you.

My 2c
 

Uglytruth

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No one has any reason to put money into a bond fund. Even dumb people know negative is not good and with bonds lagging inflation it almost seems they are forcing John Q Public into the market where he will be fleeced but it props up the majority that hold the stocks. I'm thinking metals is going to be tulip mania and go to the moon before the new digital whatever system that replaces frn's of all types.

Are Russia & China playing ball or holding out?
 

Zed

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Touchy touchy !

Did you notice where that price ended? Do you know when it has ever been lower?
Maybe this added context View attachment 138598 will help...

DJ Euro Stoxx Bank Futures?

I have it just off it's May 2012 lows. The chart looks like it should bounce if only a little. It is certainly below its 2009 post crash lows, without a current panic that says a lot! Breaking 76.4 on the downside for a month close should be a bit of a 'panic now' flag to the market... if they have not already.

A number of people are thinking that they must, and can, rescue the banks. All I can say is the plan needs to be impressive, but I can't see how it avoids nationalizing them and toasting all private interests in the process.
 

Zed

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~+2% out of the gate down here.
 

Zed

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No one has any reason to put money into a bond fund.
The problem is that they do have good reason! They are looking for deep, liquid protection BECAUSE they see no good risk reward scenarios out there. They are choosing 'return of capital' over 'return on capital'. They expect that, even though they will get less back, everything else will be much cheaper at that point so in net asset terms they will end up better off and own more. This is what is putting Gold onto the radar of many who have never had it on the radar. This is what will drive gold higher here...

JMO.
 

Zed

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Zed

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The market isn't totally spooked yet, maybe buy backs etc, I dunno it is not on my radar...

HSBC-M-20190813.png
 

Zed

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