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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

savvydon

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Gold Daily - Some targeting. A couple of consolidations an breaks, the current one and a smaller older one for reference. Typically we get +100% of the previous move, lately it has been more like the +161.8% level. (Next Fibo number). Soooooooo.... 1607 looks good and 1675 is not impossible here. Yes there is another example between the two charted and today we are at the 161.8% level that one projected. IF we get those levels I'm going to be looking for a decent correction. At that price we are digging into the price territory that carved out the major 2011 top and if that doesn't give pause for thought, well.... then we are probably in for a general world of market hurt pretty damn quickly. I will evaluate if and when but right now I'm toying with the idea of culling some stocks, doing a re-balance into the correction and adding some new ones near the lows.

2c worth of Zed's hot air!

View attachment 139646
At least your 2c holds its value!...

Are you rebalancing based on the individual nuances of each stock or are you also using general principals, like reducing royalty earners and increasing producers and/or developers?

I am contemplating making use of covered calls on some of my big move stocks. For instance, I have had KL since it was 7 and change. I recently sold a covered call for Sept at 50. I got paid to write the contract and, if push comes to shove and the stock gets called from me, I can always use the proceeds to redeploy or pick up the stock again at a lower level on a pullback.
 

Zed

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Are you rebalancing based on the individual nuances of each stock or are you also using general principals, like reducing royalty earners and increasing producers and/or developers?
I'm looking at what the market likes here and spreading my risk more evenly. I use a fundamental financial screen first, they have to be damn solid to get into my universe, then I look at the charts and valuations. Plus I have one... mebe two relative dogs and frankly there is better bang to be had for my buck.
 

Strawboss

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Speaking of dogs...

I have some HL calls that I am waiting for them to catch a bid... Jan 2020 $3 calls...

If anyone is feeling neighborly - feel free to run up the bid on them for me...
 

Zed

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I am contemplating making use of covered calls on some of my big move stocks. For instance, I have had KL since it was 7 and change. I recently sold a covered call for Sept at 50. I got paid to write the contract and, if push comes to shove and the stock gets called from me, I can always use the proceeds to redeploy or pick up the stock again at a lower level on a pullback.
On a steep run up you could buy near the money puts if you want to cover off the possibility of missing a surprise up move while trying to play a correction. Then exercise and buy lower or take profit and use it to add on the correction. I dunno.... our option market is an illiquid nightmare, you have a better playground!

Well written covered calls are a good 'dividend stream' if you get good at it. 80% expire out of the money BUT I'd want this market to settle into a pattern before I get too heavily into that. Surprises will start to be on the upside soon... JMO.
 

Zed

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POG 1676, POS 20, GSR ~83 ---> CORRECTION!

That's my call this Wednesday the 28th of July.

It wouldn't surprise me one little bit if it is timed with a general market correction/rout.
 

Strawboss

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Yeah - I wouldnt suggest writing calls in this market...

Why deal with the tax ramifications?

Maybe if the RSI on the monthly gets up to 90+ or something - then I might write a few...(or a LOT)...LOL
 

Strawboss

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POG 1676, POS 20, GSR ~83 ---> CORRECTION!

That's my call this Wednesday the 28th of July.

It wouldn't surprise me one little bit if it is timed with a general market correction/rout.
Why ya gotta dis silver like that?

I will take the over - $1692 and then WHAM...

And the $1692 will probably happen during my overnight hours while I am sleeping and I will wake up to $15xx...
 

Zed

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And the $1692 will probably happen during my overnight hours while I am sleeping and I will wake up to $15xx...
Yes... could be a hot squeezy affair.
 

Zed

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Why ya gotta dis silver like that?
She thrives on it...

+ when she finally wakes up and bolts she is going to steal your fucking wallet! So there is that.
 

Strawboss

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She thrives on it...

+ when she finally wakes up and bolts she is going to steal your fucking wallet! So there is that.
Quoted for truth...
:dduck::dduck::dduck:
 

Strawboss

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1.png


Here is a chart that shows the USD and gold...

Notice they are both rising?

Very unusual...

Paradigm shift...
 

savvydon

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Yeah - I wouldnt suggest writing calls in this market...

Why deal with the tax ramifications?

Maybe if the RSI on the monthly gets up to 90+ or something - then I might write a few...(or a LOT)...LOL
I've got an account that is buried within a 401k. I can't touch it (without incurring a penalty) for another few years. I don't worry so much about taxes there. I use it as my playground to attend the college of hard knocks where I mostly study remedial trading 101. I have had to take the course over a couple of times due to failure.

I do see your point about being wary of writing these things. After todays run up I feel a little ambivalent about the possibility of my babies being ripped untimely from me.
 

dpong

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Mr. Strawboss, I enjoy your posts, and you are friend to me. So consider this just a neutral thing for me to say. Only my opinion. But worrying about those gaps in a runaway to the upside is BS. Not "you are bs", no way, sir. But that idea doesn't make sense to me. Gaps happen in a runaway move. Will they get filled. Meh, probably at some point. But that, to me, is not the point. Wouldn't worry about those gaps, with all due respect. I assume that much respect is given and due.
 

Strawboss

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Mr. Strawboss, I enjoy your posts, and you are friend to me. So consider this just a neutral thing for me to say. Only my opinion. But worrying about those gaps in a runaway to the upside is BS. Not "you are bs", no way, sir. But that idea doesn't make sense to me. Gaps happen in a runaway move. Will they get filled. Meh, probably at some point. But that, to me, is not the point. Wouldn't worry about those gaps, with all due respect. I assume that much respect is given and due.
Mr. Pong,

The respect is mutual...

If you notice - I said "gaps that might get filled at some point"...

"might"
"at some point"

One of the things I learned in my studies at the hard knocks academy for misfits is that it is ALWAYS a good idea to keep alternate possibilities in the forefront of your mind...especially when trading in anything related to gold/silver.

Always expect the unexpected. And be nimble enough in your thinking to quickly change your viewpoint if the evidence shifts on you.

What I just said is the result of a very, very expensive education at the academy of hard knocks...
 

Zed

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Worried about China?

 

Zed

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Mr. Strawboss, I enjoy your posts, and you are friend to me. So consider this just a neutral thing for me to say. Only my opinion. But worrying about those gaps in a runaway to the upside is BS. Not "you are bs", no way, sir. But that idea doesn't make sense to me. Gaps happen in a runaway move. Will they get filled. Meh, probably at some point. But that, to me, is not the point. Wouldn't worry about those gaps, with all due respect. I assume that much respect is given and due.
It's just a market observation that typically the market will cover gaps... but there is no reason that has to happen or happen in a timely way.

2c FWIW.
 

Zed

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I have had to take the course over a couple of times due to failure.
Everyone who succeeds at trading has been there... most people fail, the stats would be shocking if you could compile them.
 

Zed

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If China actually goes for gold... I really dunno where we will end up!
 

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Zed

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The insto money is coming, the insto money is coming I tell ya! This is the markup phase starting now!... well a little while back there.

 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Didn't Armstrong say 45% was the critical percentage?! :oops:
 

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Zed

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The Washington Agreement on Gold comes to and end soon. Significant?

The fourth CBGA, which expires on 26 September 2019, was signed by the ECB, the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique, the Deutsche Bundesbank, Eesti Pank, the Central Bank of Ireland, the Bank of Greece, the Banco de España, the Banque de France, the Banca d’Italia, the Central Bank of Cyprus, Latvijas Banka, Lietuvos bankas, the Banque centrale du Luxembourg, the Central Bank of Malta, De Nederlandsche Bank, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, the Banco de Portugal, Banka Slovenije, Národná banka Slovenska, Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank, Sveriges Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank.
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2019/html/ecb.pr190726_1~3eaf64db9d.en.html
 

louky

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Great post. I agree with all of it and especially like the trading guidance. When I see my miners get REALLY short term overbought (haven't quite gotten there just yet) then I think the right play is to keep most of it on the table. I like your 'trade with 1/3 of it' idea. I think the runs are going to be longer and steeper than most will expect. Declines will be inevitable, but probably tough to time. We are approaching the summer '16 highs in the GDX and I do not believe we are going to see the same sudden or sustained pullback as then. But then again, what the hell do I know?

Would love to see some T/A an opinions on the matter.
Having been looking at gdx much myself, but saw this food for thought

 

Strawboss

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Here is a quarterly chart for GDXJ. Martin Armstrong has long advocated that you can determine trend by there being 4 higher closes or 4 lower closes...with reactions usually being 2 or at most 3 countermoves - irrespective of the time period being analyzed.

As you can see - we are in the 4th quarterly candle that if it forms a higher close than the June30 close - it will validate that this is a new uptrend in GDXJ (and the miners in general). Of course this candle wont be complete until the end of September because its a quarterly chart...

1567000334999.png
 

Strawboss

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Here is the monthly GDXJ chart. Again - as you can see - we are looking to have this months candlestick close higher than last months...if it does - it will validate that the trend is now bullish on the monthly level...

1567000543267.png
 
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I treat my old IRA the same, it's locked up and I can't withdraw without a penalty and I'm far from retirement. So, I treat it with the utmost disrespect and do crazy things like sink the nearly the whole thing into the same mining stock I lost my absolute ass on previously. I hope things are different this time but we'll see.
I had a couple 401ks from various employers. The performance on them, mutual funds, were really dismal. So I moved them out of my plans into one place so I can trade stocks when I was axed from a job that wasn't my fault. I won't have a good retirement but eat grass. long paas, and a few other miners. It's possible that gold needs to retrace to low 1500s, we'll see...
 

louky

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Silver from june 21st
Louky, do you think we can make it there before our first correction?
I wouldnt be surprised to see silver around 18 before any "scary" pull back.

Should outperform as well after gold corrects, like i've stated previously.
Made it to 18+ as anticipated. I'd think one more nice ramp up/blow off in gold first. Then start looking lower, but we'll see. top of the box 1593.

20190828_105924.jpg
 
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jelly

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interesting trendline in gold right now, causing some frustration. Don't mind the other study lines.
goldrally.png


Quick look at the past. Looks like the $1560 area is going to be tough resistance. 1550-1560 looks to be the breakdown level. I don't see gold going above this just yet. I see this level being as strong as the 1380 area that we just broke through. In my opinion we need to consolidate these gains first before breaking through this level.

goldsupport.png
 
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interesting trendline in gold right now, causing some frustration. Don't mind the other study lines.
View attachment 139701

Quick look at the past. Looks like the $1560 area is going to be tough resistance. 1550-1560 looks to be the breakdown level. I don't see gold going above this just yet. I see this level being as strong as the 1380 area that we just broke through. In my opinion we need to consolidate these gains first before breaking through this level.

View attachment 139702
that was year 2013, I'm now guessing 30% higher to be next strong resistance lines given the fact it's 6 years later. your 1550-1560 may become 2015-2028. It's all speculation.
 

Zed

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