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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Uglytruth

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China is in a no win. Companies are leaving and will be very hard to get back. Are they leaving for 1 year after the election (or their election meddling when things get back to "normal") or 5 years? Look at the costs of lost jobs for a short time vs for a very long time.

Then when I'm typing this all I can think of is the US rebuilding Japan after WWII with a clean sheet of paper and over time loosing all it's manufacturing to asia. In other words we have been sold out for 75 years........
 

Strawboss

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Speaking of dogs...

I have some HL calls that I am waiting for them to catch a bid... Jan 2020 $3 calls...

If anyone is feeling neighborly - feel free to run up the bid on them for me...
Hat tip to whichever of you helped me out with this by running the bid up...

This dog seems to be waking up...
 

Zed

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China is in a no win.
China has the worlds biggest potential domestic market with low consumer debt levels... I dunno who really needs who more in the end. The western markets are very mature, so to speak.
 

Zed

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Then when I'm typing this all I can think of is the US rebuilding Japan after WWII with a clean sheet of paper and over time loosing all it's manufacturing to asia. In other words we have been sold out for 75 years........
If there is deep recession/depression I have long contended that they come out of it better than we do... just like you came out of the depression in the 30's stronger than the old world/empire.
 

Strawboss

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If there is deep recession/depression I have long contended that they come out of it better than we do... just like you came out of the depression in the 30's stronger than the old world/empire.
I agree.

In order for China to be ready to assume the mantle of GRC - they need to develop their debt markets so they are large enough to accomodate the big money that needs to park from time to time.

There are other considerations as well - such as property rights, rule of law, etc... but the biggie is the debt markets being big enough.

What you point out is spot on. The Chinese consumer has vast potential to buy lots of stuff and incur lots of debt...but - that is a cultural change that will take some time to implement...in the meantime - I expect fits and starts...2 steps forward 1 backward kind of thing...

In the immediate sense though - as that video you posted last night made clear - China has a lot of bad debts that need to be purged from the system...and a lot of corruption that at some point they are going to have to come to grips with. They cant be a gangster and be the holder of the GRC (global reserve currency)...

Extraordinary times we are living in...
 

Zed

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Strawboss

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He has earned the right to brag a bit...

He has put in some good work over the years...

Hell - he even has his members donate money to him...no kidding...

Kudos to him...he started at ZeroHedge and built a reputation as a regular poster in the comments sections and has turned that into his own subscription site and a gig with Sprott...

Not too shabby...
 

savvydon

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He has earned the right to brag a bit...

He has put in some good work over the years...

Hell - he even has his members donate money to him...no kidding...

Kudos to him...he started at ZeroHedge and built a reputation as a regular poster in the comments sections and has turned that into his own subscription site and a gig with Sprott...

Not too shabby...
No argument there. I have nothing but kudos for him. He is clear and cogent in his analysis and has read the Fed like a book recently. Although I'm spread pretty thin time wise I usually try to take in his weekly Friday/Sat morning podcast.

One thing I am watching closely is his call re the USD vs say, Zed's view. Hemke thinks it breaks down from here, but others - Zed included, thinks there is a melt up first for the USD before it crumbles. I personally think Zed's view is a bit more nuanced, but it is interesting to watch the mammoth tug of war that has continued with the USD over the past year or so. It is almost as if the entire world is on the fence. Personally I think when it really goes bad there will be a spike up first as rats search for dry land in a rising water situation.

For me the argument is largely academic. I don't do forex stuff. I am a PM guy all the way. In either scenario the metals shine. It is hard to imagine a situation where they don't as all this chaos unfolds. Go turd!
 

Goldhedge

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China is in a no win. Companies are leaving and will be very hard to get back.
I think China needs the US more than the US needs China... Trump knows what he's doing. He also knows what China has been doing and is putting a stop to it.

China's trying the old same game of delay and obfuscation... I don't think it's gonna work this time.
 

Zed

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No argument there. I have nothing but kudos for him. He is clear and cogent in his analysis and has read the Fed like a book recently. Although I'm spread pretty thin time wise I usually try to take in his weekly Friday/Sat morning podcast.

One thing I am watching closely is his call re the USD vs say, Zed's view. Hemke thinks it breaks down from here, but others - Zed included, thinks there is a melt up first for the USD before it crumbles. I personally think Zed's view is a bit more nuanced, but it is interesting to watch the mammoth tug of war that has continued with the USD over the past year or so. It is almost as if the entire world is on the fence. Personally I think when it really goes bad there will be a spike up first as rats search for dry land in a rising water situation.

For me the argument is largely academic. I don't do forex stuff. I am a PM guy all the way. In either scenario the metals shine. It is hard to imagine a situation where they don't as all this chaos unfolds. Go turd!
The thing is that the relative powers could influence this either way with a unilateral move in currency policy at any point. China does gold backed crypto in Nov... then what? US starts issuing unbacked currency... then what? US buys and cancels vast swaths of its debt... then what? So who knows what relative forces will come into play here... all I can say is given the status quo then it makes sense that etc... change that and?!... then what?

One thing I feel sure of is that some Bretton Woods type changes are in the works here @ some point.

May we live in interesting times!

PS> @ some point in the future, before it gets really dire for .gov, we really should scale into an asset that our .gov likes. It is probably better for our financial health in the long run. Lest they sharpen the knives for us little guys.
 
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Zed

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I think China needs the US more than the US needs China... Trump knows what he's doing. He also knows what China has been doing and is putting a stop to it.

China's trying the old same game of delay and obfuscation... I don't think it's gonna work this time.
I wouldn't like to bet on that either way... lots of strength on both sides and some obvious weak points. Time frame is important.
 

Zed

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Bank --> Looking after your money cost too much! TAKE IT AWAY!

Is this just fucking insane or is it me? What could possibly go wrong? Why do I think that they will be begging for capital soonish?! Dump your bank, buy gold... then what? They raise rates to meet capital requirements? I dunno, seems f'ed up!

In July, savers had about 930 billion kroner, or $140 billion, in bank deposits, marking a record. The money represents a huge cost for banks, which either place excess cash reserves in a central bank account at minus 0.65% or invest it in negative-yielding securities. Even so, there are still some banks pledging not to drag retail depositors into the mix, for fear of losing them. They’re also worried about the risk of mass withdrawals, which would, among other things, delay progress toward a cashless society.
 

Zed

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savvydon

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The thing is that the relative powers could influence this either way with a unilateral move in currency policy at any point. China does gold backed crypto in Nov... then what? US starts issuing unbacked currency... then what? US buys and cancels vast swaths of its debt... then what? So who knows what relative forces will come into play here... all I can say is given the status quo then it makes sense that etc... change that and?!... then what?

One thing I feel sure of is that some Bretton Woods type changes are in the works here @ some point.

May we live in interesting times!

PS> @ some point in the future, before it gets really dire for .gov, we really should scale into an asset that our .gov likes. It is probably better for our finial health in the long run. Lest they sharpen the knives for us little guys.
You are the macro guy ... I’m all ears!
 

Zed

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You are the macro guy ... I’m all ears!
We watch... I do wonder how far Trump will go if he gets another term. He seems to want to play the government game with commercial zeal.
 

Zed

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You are the macro guy ... I’m all ears!
Well, I struggle with it @ least that much is so. Get the macro correct and life is much easier for your garden variety trader. I just have to remember to never get a bull market and brains confused.
 

Strawboss

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From the macro perspective - I have learned to respect the views of Martin Armstrong. He isnt perfect - but he has been right far more often than he has been wrong...

His macro view is the Euro is gonna go tits up - which will result in a FLOOD of money rushing into the USD seeking safety. We just got a report that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is gonna shift their assets more into the US and away from Europe. The beginning of the move that Armstrong predicted?

Then after the Euro implodes - the bond vigilantes are gonna set their sights on the Yen and the same thing will happen - another HUGE wave of incoming money into the USD seeking shelter...

This will drive the USD into the stratosphere crushing the rest of the world as most debts are denominated in USD...

He further predicts that the intial move in gold will be down - but that it will then rise in tandem with the USD - along with the stock market, bond market, etc...

The big question is...have we already experienced the gold dip - when it went down to about $1050 and is now rising in tandem with the dollar? Perhaps...

If the trade weighted dollar surpasses the highs from 1985 when they instituted the Plaza accord...and we are VERY CLOSE to that level currently - all hell is gonna break loose in the currency markets as the USD will then have blue skies above...
 

Zed

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BTW. Harvey's Organ is hanging around saying POS $20 blows up a few banks. Could be fun!
 

Zed

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Zed

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This makes sense to me...


They are jammed up against zero with no way of getting out but going "Cold Turkey". It will just take some time to work it out and admit it. This is a little big like the argument that Marxism works, it just hasn't been done right yet! They are screwed, I bet that many of them leave the job before they have to be the ones that deal with the aftermath.

Anyway... the first step to try and fix the above problem will be to ban cash.

Gold anyone?
 

Zed

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BTW. I'm giving Brave a run. https://brave.com/

It's nice and fast... feels good so far, pretty well sorted, ad free.

Worth a peek if you haven't already.

Imported everything from my other browsers really well.
 

louky

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Platinum up 9% in 61 hours

Always have a plan

Magic 8 ball told me platinum needs to make one more bottom before crossing this trend line




I should also mention 2003 called and said it's prices are coming back
I'm trading platinum, i wouldn't go long on it until it makes a long term lower low.
well, believe it or not, platinum is doing exactly what it's suppose to be doing. just needs lil more push lower.
 
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Unca Walt

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BTW. I'm giving Brave a run. https://brave.com/

It's nice and fast... feels good so far, pretty well sorted, ad free.

Worth a peek if you haven't already.

Imported everything from my other browsers really well.
Brave is the best I've seen.

Has about everything.
 
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Just sold out of my pplt position @ $88/share
 

jelly

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Miners are selling off. Not a good sign at this point of the game. Miners selling off usually means the metals will follow the next day. let’s see how we close
 
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Miners are selling off. Not a good sign at this point of the game. Miners selling off usually means the metals will follow the next day. let’s see how we close
Trump tweets about China tariffs and trade just an hr ago and that caused a selloff and a stock market rally. may be a good buying opportunity on the dips.
 

Goldhedge

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From the macro perspective - I have learned to respect the views of Martin Armstrong. He isnt perfect - but he has been right far more often than he has been wrong...

His macro view is the Euro is gonna go tits up - which will result in a FLOOD of money rushing into the USD seeking safety. We just got a report that the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund is gonna shift their assets more into the US and away from Europe. The beginning of the move that Armstrong predicted?

Then after the Euro implodes - the bond vigilantes are gonna set their sights on the Yen and the same thing will happen - another HUGE wave of incoming money into the USD seeking shelter...

This will drive the USD into the stratosphere crushing the rest of the world as most debts are denominated in USD...

He further predicts that the intial move in gold will be down - but that it will then rise in tandem with the USD - along with the stock market, bond market, etc...

The big question is...have we already experienced the gold dip - when it went down to about $1050 and is now rising in tandem with the dollar? Perhaps...

If the trade weighted dollar surpasses the highs from 1985 when they instituted the Plaza accord...and we are VERY CLOSE to that level currently - all hell is gonna break loose in the currency markets as the USD will then have blue skies above...
Any chance of a war in there someplace?

They (NWO) want to create a Libra-like 'new' world currency and displace the almighty....
 

Strawboss

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Hopefully the correction will be quick and relatively painless...

We have risen almost $300 in gold and about 50% in the miners. Taking some time to digest the gains would be healthy as it would build levels of support for the next move higher...
 

Goldhedge

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Brave is the best I've seen.

Has about everything.
I'm on a Mac Air using Brave.

Only problem is that when running both Safari browser and Brave it shuts down the computer.

I ran it w/o Safari running and it seemed to work better. Must be some conflict going on there...?

It's fast. Blocks all kinds of stuff. Been using it for about 5 days so far.

Screen Shot 2019-08-29 at 11.01.49 AM.png
 

dpong

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I bought it, Rip.
What looks like it's dipped a couple bucks today since I sold, I just thought it was a huge rip in a few days. And I figured things tend to revert to the mean.
 

dpong

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Nothing wrong with that, Rip. To me it looks like it might be waking up. Or I'm early? Not sure.

chart-4.png
chart-5.png
 
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I'm not up with my point and figure charts but I see a descending pendant and price action that's way out of the bollinger bands
 

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dpong

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I'm not up with my point and figure charts but I see a descending pendant and price action that's way out of the bollinger bands
I see your point. Nice chart!
 
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For what it's worth I still think there is upside, just locking in some trading gains from this outlier event. Who knows maybe I'll miss the boat.