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Strawboss

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I would have sold there too Rip...nice trade...
 

Zed

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Strawboss

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Zed

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Good

Fuck em. Just like they have been doing to us for so long...
One good thing about the crypto currency model is that you are not forced to lend your money to a bank to utilize the system. Putting money 'on deposit' is more of a conscious voluntary decision that requires action vs inaction (now). I see it as a world where banks will once again have to entice customers with rewards and win confidence. That can't be a bad thing and it has to make it harder to create these 'systemically important' monsters that become points of failure that must be supported at all costs no matter how fucked up they get!

I'm liking the general idea but the whole transition thing scares the crap outta me!
 
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Anyone reading this, please don't be "short", what I see that there is potential run for gold to 1700 in less than a month. My charts aren't posted here but just be careful if you are on the opposite side of the trade. I can be wrong if I had my charts upside down.
 

Zed

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Anyone reading this, please don't be "short", what I see that there is potential run for gold to 1700 in less than a month. My charts aren't posted here but just be careful if you are on the opposite side of the trade. I can be wrong if I had my charts upside down.
Well post them then!
 

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Well post them then!
Yeah! WTF dude...post dem charts...

Seriously though...as I mentioned - there are GOING to be corrections along the way...and the volatility is gonna test your mettle... There will be opportunities to profit on both the long side and the short side - although I agree that its gonna be a bit hairy trying to play the short side...

I am not perfect in my own trades - but I do have a lot of experience...and have made most of the boneheaded moves a guy can make (some more than once)...

Everything I have learned in the school of hard knocks is screaming at me that we are in uncharted waters - and everything I have learned...all the charts...all of the backtesting...it has limited value going forward because there is a new paradigm...negative interest rates...

Something that none of us has any experience dealing with. Something that none of the so called "experts" has any experience dealing with. This has NEVER happened in the history of markets... EVER!!!

I mostly play the options market - and those of you that do as well can attest to the fact that option pricing is very emotional...that the "sentiment" can change on a freaking dime...the bids can literally disappear...

To be successful at it over time - you have to develop a "feel" and be in tune to the ebbs and flows...

It has been my experience (and I am still a student in this shit)...that the option crowd sniffs out reversals in the market before the market does. And I think that will be valuable in the uncharted waters we find ourselves...

Yes - charts and technicals will still show us what happened...but I think that its very possible that traditional setups like negative divergences and fibonacci retracements and even channels will not be as reliable....its gonna take "feel"...

Right now I feel like gold has gotten a bit overextended - and there is some digestion that needs to take place...

Interestingly - I find a certain comfort in Louky's system of boxes and pivots. Hat tip to Zed for his help in that regard...

Speaking of which...I want to mention something to those of you that frequent this thread...

We are very, very fortunate to have Zed here...couple of reasons why. Firstly - China is gonna play an immense role going forward for many reasons - and when China sneezes - Australia catches a cold. Having Zed on scene gives us a good source of intelligence on the ground so to speak.

Secondly - and probably most importantly - Zed is an exceptional resource of good information from vetted sources, he provides good clarity and insight and isnt one of these bloviating chumps like Gartman...

Ok - done rambling...
 

Zed

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The 6 month moving average is now over the 12 month moving average which is over the 24 month moving average. Last occurrences where Jul 17, April 09, Sep 05, Jan 02. Save for Jul 17 all other occurrences led to an approximate two year up cycle. So... 2021 or so...

Martin Armstrong: “By 2020 or 2021 you’re going to see a currency reset.”

Things that make your hmmmmmm go ahaaaa!

Which probably means that going into 2021 you need to get a good amount of capital into a safe haven that is less likely to attract the ire of the government.
 

Strawboss

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The 6 month moving average is now over the 12 month moving average which is over the 24 month moving average. Last occurrences where Jul 17, April 09, Sep 05, Jan 02. Save for Jul 17 all other occurrences led to an approximate two year up cycle. So... 2021 or so...

Martin Armstrong: “By 2020 or 2021 you’re going to see a currency reset.”

Things that make your hmmmmmm go ahaaaa!

Which probably means that going into 2021 you need to get a good amount of capital into a safe haven that is less likely to attract the ire of the government.
You know...a chart of this stuff you are mumbling about would be helpful...

Who is this Martin Armstrong character you mention?

His name seems familiar to me for some reason...
 

Zed

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Yeah! WTF dude...post dem charts...

Seriously though...as I mentioned - there are GOING to be corrections along the way...and the volatility is gonna test your mettle... There will be opportunities to profit on both the long side and the short side - although I agree that its gonna be a bit hairy trying to play the short side...

I am not perfect in my own trades - but I do have a lot of experience...and have made most of the boneheaded moves a guy can make (some more than once)...

Everything I have learned in the school of hard knocks is screaming at me that we are in uncharted waters - and everything I have learned...all the charts...all of the backtesting...it has limited value going forward because there is a new paradigm...negative interest rates...

Something that none of us has any experience dealing with. Something that none of the so called "experts" has any experience dealing with. This has NEVER happened in the history of markets... EVER!!!

I mostly play the options market - and those of you that do as well can attest to the fact that option pricing is very emotional...that the "sentiment" can change on a freaking dime...the bids can literally disappear...

To be successful at it over time - you have to develop a "feel" and be in tune to the ebbs and flows...

It has been my experience (and I am still a student in this shit)...that the option crowd sniffs out reversals in the market before the market does. And I think that will be valuable in the uncharted waters we find ourselves...

Yes - charts and technicals will still show us what happened...but I think that its very possible that traditional setups like negative divergences and fibonacci retracements and even channels will not be as reliable....its gonna take "feel"...

Right now I feel like gold has gotten a bit overextended - and there is some digestion that needs to take place...

Interestingly - I find a certain comfort in Louky's system of boxes and pivots. Hat tip to Zed for his help in that regard...

Speaking of which...I want to mention something to those of you that frequent this thread...

We are very, very fortunate to have Zed here...couple of reasons why. Firstly - China is gonna play an immense role going forward for many reasons - and when China sneezes - Australia catches a cold. Having Zed on scene gives us a good source of intelligence on the ground so to speak.

Secondly - and probably most importantly - Zed is an exceptional resource of good information from vetted sources, he provides good clarity and insight and isnt one of these bloviating chumps like Gartman...

Ok - done rambling...
Too kind dude... I'm completely, in fact, routinely fallible! Just so long as we don't get consumed by our own bullshit we should do OK. IMO This is now a bull market again, that can make us all feel like geniuses on the buy side.... calling a sell will be the hard trick and by then you will be drowned out by $50K (probably more!) bull calls. It will probably be hard to be heard even on this thread... so... lets try and keep it as real as possible as long as possible.
 
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Zed

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You know...a chart of this stuff you are mumbling about would be helpful...
It wasn't that instructive...

Gold Monthly (last bar not quite done!) - I think we peak out, maybe for the rest of the year, in Sep, in that 1565 to 1625 area. That would probably mean that 10/19,11/19,12/19 are corrective months (not typical!) and that would about set us up for a good 2020 chart wise and cycles wise. If it plays to 1625 I'm looking for ~1490 to ~1450 as support for the correction.

In Louky's box parlance that translates to 1449 to 1494 with the all clear coming over 1503 as the pivot number.

These numbers would also approximate a 61.8% and 50% Fibo correction from 1625 odd. All pretty normal in terms on a market rhythm.

2c worth of luke warm air!

XAUUSD-M-20190830-1.png
 

Zed

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Greece 10 Year Bond Yield:
  • 2015: 19.8%
  • 2016: 11.5%
  • 2017: 7.8%
  • 2018: 4.7%
  • 2019: 1.6% we set a record low!


... yeah, well, it's Greece pal! Someone is getting it over a barrel. Pension funds no doubt!
 

Uglytruth

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Why would a bank invest in a negative yielding asset? They already pay zero interest. Why not just sit in digits or cash? They could go back to being banks & making money on good loans that people actually qualify for and they have a great chance of getting their money back with interest. You know like a real bank instead of bundling bad loans & offloading them in the market.

What's that you say? You can't do that & support your bloated ass? Welcome to the world that most your customers have been in for decades.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Why would a bank invest in a negative yielding asset? They already pay zero interest. Why not just sit in digits or cash? They could go back to being banks & making money on good loans that people actually qualify for and they have a great chance of getting their money back with interest. You know like a real bank instead of bundling bad loans & offloading them in the market.

What's that you say? You can't do that & support your bloated ass? Welcome to the world that most your customers have been in for decades.

Legislation...

Banks, pension funds etc are MANDATED to hold certain classes of securities in certain amounts..... and off course government debt is a tier one asset! (not! LOL).

If the regulatory environment was different cash would make more sense and assets like gold even more so.
 

Zed

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Zed

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It wasn't that instructive...

Gold Monthly (last bar not quite done!) - I think we peak out, maybe for the rest of the year, in Sep, in that 1565 to 1625 area. That would probably mean that 10/19,11/19,12/19 are corrective months (not typical!) and that would about set us up for a good 2020 chart wise and cycles wise. If it plays to 1625 I'm looking for ~1490 to ~1450 as support for the correction.

In Louky's box parlance that translates to 1449 to 1494 with the all clear coming over 1503 as the pivot number.

These numbers would also approximate a 61.8% and 50% Fibo correction from 1625 odd. All pretty normal in terms on a market rhythm.

2c worth of luke warm air!

View attachment 139806
I'm thinking that we will see buying into the FOMC meet (17-18 Sep) and that becomes a "sell the fact" event even though intuitively (assuming they cut) it should be a bullish event. IMO it will be forecast and discounted ahead of time by the market, then we will correct the froth. Sooooo... look for a pop into the middle of Sep.

Just my current thoughts.
 

Zed

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jelly

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Looking at the big picture, I have a hard time gauging where we go in the medium term. If this rally keeps chugging up and on, or if we will get a correction first.
One of the biggest oddities to me is that so many of the small juniors have barely moved on this upleg. It seems the larger the company the better the upmove. This makes me believe it's still very early. When are the little ones going to wake up?
 

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Car Manufacturers Halt Production In India Amid Disastrous Slowdown

The India economy is set to deteriorate through 2H19 despite the government's stimulus unveiled last week. A global synchronized slowdown and a negative fiscal impulse have sent the economy into a tailspin. Regional instabilities in Jammu and Kashmir, a currency rout with the rupee plunging underneath 72 against the dollar, and a trade war between the US and China, are other factors that have not helped the situation.
Automotive manufacturing in the country has been one of the hardest-hit sectors. Indian auto sales in July plunged 30.9% to 200,790. It's the ninth consecutive month of declines and the steepest drop in 18 years. The sales declines forced hundreds of thousands of layoffs in the last several months, with many companies forcing to idle factories.


Reuters obtained company notices to employees that showed Japanese carmaker Toyota Motor and South Korea's Hyundai Motor are the latest companies idling factories amid the downturn that could last through 1H20.
Denso Corp's Indian unit, which makes powertrain and air-conditioning systems for cars, laid off 350 temporary workers at its Manesar plant in northern India, a source told Reuters.
Bellsonica, which is owned by Maruti Suzuki, had to idle its fuel tank and brake pad plants this month and lay off several hundred workers in Manesar, two sources said.
Already, the auto sector has cut as many as 350,000 jobs; this includes auto manufacturing, auto parts manufacturing, and dealership jobs.
The downturn in the automobile industry is a significant obstacle for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government because autos account for 50% of India's manufacturing output.

Automobile companies, directly and indirectly, employ more than 35 million people.
"If this industry goes down, then everything gets hurt. Manufacturing, jobs, and revenue to the government," Vishnu Mathur, director general, SIAM, told Reuters earlier this month.​
In another memo viewed by Reuters, Toyota told workers the company would pause production at its plants in Bengaluru in southern India on Aug 16 and 17 "due to low market demand of vehicles."
N. Raja, deputy managing director, at Toyota's Indian unit, told Reuters that its plants would have been idled for at least 16% of the entire month (or about five days) to thwart a rapid build in stocks due to decreasing demand.
"The industry is deeply concerned with the reality of poor customer sentiment faced by the sector," said Raja, adding he expected the government to provide stimulus to the industry.​
In another memo viewed by Reuters, Hyundai said it has halt body, paint, engine, and transmission plants for several days this month.
Last month, Bosch Ltd, the largest parts maker in India, published a memo that outlined how it suspended operations at its Gangaikondan plant in Tamil Nadu for a week in late July to "avoid unnecessary build-up of inventory."
Ram Venkataramani, President, Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), said the 15% to 20% cut in auto production had triggered an auto crisis in India, could lead to at least one million people being laid off in the coming quarters.
The Indian auto crisis - regarded by industry executives as a disastrous downturn that could be one of the worst seen in the country's history.
 

Zed

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One of the biggest oddities to me is that so many of the small juniors have barely moved on this upleg. It seems the larger the company the better the upmove. This makes me believe it's still very early.
Yes, this is normal. Insto money buying the most secure value that they can. Joe public is nowhere to be seen. Joe buys the high risk crap.
 

Zed

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Slightly dated but worth a listen. Focus on the bit about the passive funds that dominate the current market... it is a point worth remembering.

 

Goldhedge

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negative interest rates...
Everyone I've been reading says this is not a good thing....

Which probably means that going into 2021 you need to get a good amount of capital into a safe haven that is less likely to attract the ire of the government.
Does the mattress count, or were you thinking 'capital' is something other than paper dollars?


Who is this Martin Armstrong character you mention?
Seriously? He was the guy found in contempt of court for not turning over his system to wall street pukes. Spent 7 years in jail until a letter writing campaign forced the court to release him. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model is an economic cycle theory that proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3141 days, which is approximately {\displaystyle \pi \times 1000}
. At the end of each cycle is a crisis after which the economic climate improves until the next 8.6 year crisis point. The theory is based on a list of historical financial panics (26 in 224 years, between 1683 and 1907), producing a frequency of roughly 8.6 years.[2] Armstrong concluded that a wave of 8.6 years moved through larger waves building in intensity amounting to six waves of 8.6 years constructing a major long wave of 51.6 years.[2] Also key are quarter-cycles of 2.15 years.[4] Armstrong kept his cycle secret and The New Yorker commented that Armstrong would suggest that his models were rooted in certain fundamentals and complex computer calculations, rather than in a simple mystical number.​
 

Goldhedge

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A Special Report to consider ….

webbotreader (48) in investing • yesterday (edited)

Hello and thank you again for letting me turn the knob in your head. It is my opinion great days are ahead for precious metals holders (of all investment types). Most of us understand the idea that our money is coming home. It’s the reason we’ll see all things under the US Dollar go higher in price and that it will occur when the world stops using our currency (US Dollar) as a hedge against its own holdings which may be forced out of their control, and back into our country causing all manufacturing, farming products, in short, all things physical, sharply higher in price. And it could quite possibly push the S&P and the Dow to newer life of contract highs as well. All this could happen because of the hidden Eurodollar system created to obstruct every nation’s control of its currency, at least this is the thesis in my opinion after reading The Monetary Fifth Column: The Eurodollar Threat to Financial Stability and Economic Sovereignty in the Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law.

We know the Dollars are coming home so we delved into the Eurodollar system that is a massive and liquid issuance(s) that is not only a part of the US Dollar’s debt system, but every single currency within the central banking system has a Eurodollar trading system over looking it too! Yuan, Yen, Swiss Franc, British Pound, et al. have a Eurodollar system. They too have their printed cash held in other central banks, to use as a hedge against that nations interest rates, and is completely outside the printed currency’s national rules and regulators. My next special write up will delve into this thesis and will offer various reasons for why we may be at the truest point of contention as the currencies collapse upon the printers and those forced to live under an inaccurate mathematical problem created by the few to control the many.

We’re putting this out there as an intro to a weekend report we will produce in order to explain what may be part of the currency war with China, with the Federal Reserve as a puppet, not for the USA benefit, but for a group of bankers, who have set this system up to bypass the SWIFT system. The Vanderbilt report must be read, if not, don’t bother reading further, it is that important!

The bottom line question in all of this will be; what happens to an asset a central bank holds that is about to turn worthless or can only be used in the country that printed it? That may be the point when the SHTF, and many believe we are there now. Until the weekend …

Stay Resolute!
J. Johnson
 

Strawboss

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Seriously? He was the guy found in contempt of court for not turning over his system to wall street pukes. Spent 7 years in jail until a letter writing campaign forced the court to release him. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_A._Armstrong

Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model is an economic cycle theory that proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3141 days, which is approximately {\displaystyle \pi \times 1000}
. At the end of each cycle is a crisis after which the economic climate improves until the next 8.6 year crisis point. The theory is based on a list of historical financial panics (26 in 224 years, between 1683 and 1907), producing a frequency of roughly 8.6 years.[2] Armstrong concluded that a wave of 8.6 years moved through larger waves building in intensity amounting to six waves of 8.6 years constructing a major long wave of 51.6 years.[2] Also key are quarter-cycles of 2.15 years.[4] Armstrong kept his cycle secret and The New Yorker commented that Armstrong would suggest that his models were rooted in certain fundamentals and complex computer calculations, rather than in a simple mystical number.​
I was being sarcastic dude...

I have only referenced Martin oh...probably 300 times or so...
 

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I was being sarcastic dude...

I have only referenced Martin oh...probably 300 times or so...
I thought you might be... ;-) but just in case....
 

Goldhedge

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Funny how zero interest rates doesn't engender more borrowing and consuming.

It's as if the borrower is under water and can't afford to borrow any more debt....
 

Zed

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Does the mattress count, or were you thinking 'capital' is something other than paper dollars?
I dunno, but maybe traditional safe havens will end up cheap with good strong dividends... utilities etc. Whatever it is something will make sense.
 

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Funny how zero interest rates doesn't engender more borrowing and consuming.
Its deflationary, makes cash money more valuable hence the war on cash. We have to see how that plays.
 

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someone posted a thesis to back it up: Yep, last 80-100 yrs until 1989, mkt value of US Gold was 20-130% of foreign held UST’s. Today that % is around 5%? So Luke’s 40k is about right!
Yes... it is a scary number. I'm not sure what that means for life in general.
 

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Why would a bank invest in a negative yielding asset? They already pay zero interest. Why not just sit in digits or cash? They could go back to being banks & making money on good loans that people actually qualify for and they have a great chance of getting their money back with interest. You know like a real bank instead of bundling bad loans & offloading them in the market.

What's that you say? You can't do that & support your bloated ass? Welcome to the world that most your customers have been in for decades.
Also keep this in mind... there is a capital gain WHILE there are capital inflows.

 

Zed

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Jeeeezzzzzz Louise!

Some mainstream professional T/A

 

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GDX Weekly - Bridging the gap! It will struggle to do this BUT if my gold read is correct it will be bridged and we should turn the gap into support. It looks like it has "enough in the tank" to get there, even if we struggle for a bit then play catch up to gold. Of course it all hinges on gold but if you wonder why the struggle here I'd point to that gap down in mid 2013.

GDX-W-20190830-1.png
 

Zed

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When I was in IT they called it "The Bleeding Edge" for a reason! NEVER adopt these new technologies early, it WILL cost you! Wait for a clear winner... VHS, LCD, IBM PC... etc...


... lecky cars... same, same.
 

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Slightly dated but worth a listen. Focus on the bit about the passive funds that dominate the current market... it is a point worth remembering.

She's HOT!

Great point. Is this baby boomer related? Few under 40 have anything let alone money to invest. Maybe some 401K type funds.

Buffet sitting on cash is interesting as it is mentioned everywhere. Is this follow the leader or actual fundamentals?




Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model is an economic cycle theory that proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3141 days, which is approximately {\displaystyle \pi \times 1000}
. At the end of each cycle is a crisis after which the economic climate improves until the next 8.6 year crisis point. The theory is based on a list of historical financial panics (26 in 224 years, between 1683 and 1907), producing a frequency of roughly 8.6 years.[2] Armstrong concluded that a wave of 8.6 years moved through larger waves building in intensity amounting to six waves of 8.6 years constructing a major long wave of 51.6 years.[2] Also key are quarter-cycles of 2.15 years.[4] Armstrong kept his cycle secret and The New Yorker commented that Armstrong would suggest that his models were rooted in certain fundamentals and complex computer calculations, rather than in a simple mystical number.
So is this natural or man made / timed? Seems the kenyan years should have had a dip......
So now it hits before the election? Weaponized fiscal timing?