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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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Great point. Is this baby boomer related?
It will be their last big bust with no time for recovery. They will have to liquidate assets to live creating a bear market in housing, boats, RV's, boomer toys of all types, etc, etc and anything other asset they have! They will also become a bigger social security burden than is currently assumed. JMO... save for the old goldbugs of course! It will also really ramp up this inter generational politicking that is going on. They will vote for more tax and a pay rise and the younger workers will vote the opposite. Fingers will point both ways, it will be "we made this country" vs "you drove us into massive debt"! etc, etc... started already.

I took happy pills today didn't I! LOL.
 

Zed

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I think stocks market is going to razzle dazzle us, once again.
Armstrong holds that blue chips will fly. Capital inflows to the US will need a home and bonds aren't cheap... so maybe. No so much a driver out here... we might see headwinds as should the Euronutz. So it depends on what market talking. S&P looks very much like late 2018 at the mo. Could be a mini cascade coming up, say 264x? odd. If it is going to happen it will be soonish.
 

louky

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Failure bottom of the box usually isn't pretty. Think back when 1359 area was being tested originally. Everyone thought 1368 was a guaranteed , done deal breakout. Not expecting that level of destruction, but just saying.....1503 pivot
 

jelly

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Looking at the big picture, I have a hard time gauging where we go in the medium term. If this rally keeps chugging up and on, or if we will get a correction first.
One of the biggest oddities to me is that so many of the small juniors have barely moved on this upleg. It seems the larger the company the better the upmove. This makes me believe it's still very early. When are the little ones going to wake up?
Yes, this is normal. Insto money buying the most secure value that they can. Joe public is nowhere to be seen. Joe buys the high risk crap.
During the 2016 flash rally in the metals/miners, everything moved, including the little ones. That's what is throwing me off about this rally, and why the little miners are just puddling around.
 

Goldhedge

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If GDXJ no longer has 'juniors' in it, what is everyone watching to determine 'juniors'?
 

louky

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I have an interesting question if anyone can answer by a long shot. When Trump was elected, the Dow started trading at 17800 and had a nice run. Now with the Tariffs situation going out of control, is it possible that the Dow will be less than it was when Trump was elected?
After the trump pump gets erased, that's when they actually flip to QE. 2100-2200 s&p
 

dpong

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I have about a dozen solid little juniors on my wathlist, most are going nowhere.
I can confirm that. I think Zed is right, they come on later.
 

Strawboss

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Failure bottom of the box usually isn't pretty. Think back when 1359 area was being tested originally. Everyone thought 1368 was a guaranteed , done deal breakout. Not expecting that level of destruction, but just saying.....1503 pivot
Break below 1530 NCN, should confirm fake breakout mentioned above
1.png


Does a weekly close below $1530 validate the failed upside breakout attempt and put the pivot in play?
 

Strawboss

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Oops auto correct, lol ..eastern.
Yup - hence my question to Louky...
There is the "weekly close" and then there is the "weekly close"...not necessarily the same thing...

I remember a time when a trader left Friday afternoon for the weekend and not 20 minutes later - they bombed the gold price and he had to turn around and make a mad dash back to the office to attempt damage control...
 

Zed

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I can confirm that. I think Zed is right, they come on later.
Money slides down the risk slope. After all, why buy high risk when low risk is cheap? ... and history has taught that it is safer and more profitable to move to juniors down the track once you are sure the move is real.

I thought that this was common gold market wisdom?
 

Zed

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Looking @ charts... an interim top is near. Now or two weeks? Here or higher? I really thought that there should be a bit more in this move but perhaps not. So... will we rally into the FOMC and have a sell the fact event or will we get nervous into the FOMC and rally afterward or is this just it for a while... mush city for the near term.

Don't like that weekly candle much!

Thoughts?
 

Strawboss

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Looking @ charts... an interim top is near. Now or two weeks? Here or higher? I really thought that there should be a bit more in this move but perhaps not. So... will we rally into the FOMC and have a sell the fact event or will we get nervous into the FOMC and rally afterward or is this just it for a while... mush city for the near term.

Don't like that weekly candle much!

Thoughts?
I mentioned several days ago that there is a negative divergence on the miners charts... pretty clear technical signal that the rally is running out of steam for the moment...on the daily chart...

1.png


And then there are a couple gaps...the higher one of which lines up real nice with a fibonacci retracement level...

Things that make ya go hmmm....

But - in a bull market - no one wants to hear the voice of gloom...even if its only temporary gloom...

$1450ish? $1369 backtest?

For those of you still learning how to trade successfully (and not become homeless)...

Rule #1 - Always watch your back.
Rule #2 - See Rule #1
 

Zed

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I mentioned several days ago that there is a negative divergence on the miners charts... pretty clear technical signal that the rally is running out of steam for the moment...on the daily chart...

View attachment 139878

And then there are a couple gaps...the higher one of which lines up real nice with a fibonacci retracement level...

Things that make ya go hmmm....

But - in a bull market - no one wants to hear the voice of gloom...even if its only temporary gloom...

$1450ish? $1369 backtest?

For those of you still learning how to trade successfully (and not become homeless)...

Rule #1 - Always watch your back.
Rule #2 - See Rule #1
Yeah I hear that... and there is a big bad old gap down 32-30 from 2013 that will offer up resistance... it's just that we got closes half way into that in 2016 and we have barely got into it this time with a MUCH better gold price. I can see that we are due for a break but it's bothering me, it just feels like a head fake and that there is one last pop here before it takes a proper rest. L@@k May 16 on the GDX weekly, 4 weeks sideways/down chop then a six week pop on some solid divergence across a range of indicators. Maybe just a weak Sep and a strong close for the year...

Typically in the opening phases of a new bull move it's mostly gloom and correction calls based on the bear market action prior... and mostly they are wrong, because it has changed.

IMO if we bridge this gap it will be like taking the brakes off for a little while.

I have a channel on the GDX that suggests that this move corrects from ~35.5-36!? and drawn another way it could be say 37. Not what I'd call a strong technical structure but... in 2016 it took 45xGDX to buy gold @ the top, now it takes 51x suggesting that there is more to be had here. Getting back to 45x takes us over that gap even if gold gains are modest here.

I dunno... it's just bothering me, I can't help but think, yeah the top callers aren't wrong but early enough to end up doubting their ability! That's what a bull market will do... very few will get to be on the money here.
 

Zed

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Just for reference prior to the 2008 debacle GDX traded @ 18x which today implies a GDX of 84 odd taking gold @ 1520. That is how undervalued the miners are and in implies that there will be some surprising upside when this actually really gets going.

Even at the peak of the 2008 crisis it traded @ < 45x.

Now we are @ 51x after a rally from 67.5x that's unloved.

In 2016 we rallied out of 85x that's hated!

If gold hits what is now a modest prediction of ~5K and GDX gets back to the multiples it started @ then we could see GDX @ 300 odd before this is done. A ten bagger on an ETF! Some individual plays are going to be absolute king makers over this upleg.
 
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Strawboss

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Just for reference prior to the 2008 debacle GDX traded @ 18x which today implies a GDX of 84 odd taking gold @ 1520. That is how undervalued the miners are and in implies that there will be some surprising upside when this actually really gets going.

Even at the peak of the 2008 crisis it traded @ < 45x.

Now we are @ 51x after a rally from 67.5x that's unloved.

In 2016 we rallied out of 85x that's hated!

If gold hits what is now a modest prediction of ~5K and GDX gets back to the multiples it started @ then we could see GDX @ 300 odd before this is done. A ten bagger on an ETF! Some individual plays are going to be absolute king makers over this upleg.
1567246082470.png


Still in the foothills of a bull market in gold/miners...
 

Zed

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Strawboss

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Drilling down a bit - we can see that GDX has begun the ascent - but has some near term resistance to overcome...

1567247168936.png
 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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louky

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View attachment 139858

Does a weekly close below $1530 validate the failed upside breakout attempt and put the pivot in play?
In theory 1539 should of held and below 1530 confirms a false breakout. Of course nothing is fool proof.

As far as charts, if you look at 1 hour there's a clear bear flag with breakdown target of 1505-10.

The historically significant number between bottom of the box 1539 and top of lower box 1494, is of course 1503 pivot. So that's where i'd look. Below it opens up deeper correction into september, 1476 would probably be the next number to watch.
 
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