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Strawboss

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louky

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I wouldnt be surprised to see silver around 18 before any "scary" pull back.

Should outperform as well after gold corrects, like i've stated previously.
Time for something scary. Usually 50% of the move is a good guess for silver. I'm not expecting crash per say into December, but won't ignore the #'s i posted for gold if they trigger.
 
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Time for something scary. Usually 50% of the move is a good guess for silver. I'm not expecting crash per say into December, but won't ignore the #'s i posted for gold if they trigger.
I'm not definite on the patterns but one thing that really going to put a damper on the markets is the 15% tariffs on technology on Dec 15. can't imagine the % of technology in relation to the whole nasdaq and dow indices. I would love to know what makes up the international dow indices in relation to technogy.
 

Zed

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Chinese newspapers keep going there!
 

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JayDubya

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From the above article:
"The status of the super currency is supposed to be unshakable, but the problem is that the US itself wants to give up this status..."
Where's the footnote for this statement? Can anyone verify this?
The U.S. wants the dollar to no longer be the reserve currency? That doesn't make any sense.
 

Zed

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Euronutz go for USD and gold!
 

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Varmint Hunter

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From the above article:
"The status of the super currency is supposed to be unshakable, but the problem is that the US itself wants to give up this status..."
Where's the footnote for this statement? Can anyone verify this?
The U.S. wants the dollar to no longer be the reserve currency? That doesn't make any sense.
Probably just propaganda put out by the chicoms.
 

Strawboss

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S&P futures since 1997, there's one single open gap at 1867.50 from feb 2016
A move down to close that gap would definitely get everyone on the wrong side of the boat which would be the fuel for a moonshot...
 

Zed

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Probably just propaganda put out by the chicoms.
In this environment the desire to weaken the USD when it is taking on the roll as a safe haven is tantamount to not wanting to be the reserve. The thing is that I don't think it matters what the US wants for now as the bulk of the worlds reliable and trusted financial infrastructure is in the US so the USD will be the reserve until this changes. To change this we need to see two things, one a viable alternate that is trusted and, quite probably, gross negligence on the part of the US admin in managing the dollar. Even if we see the gross negligence (printing your way into a full blown currency war) it will be some time before any alternate currency emerges and becomes trusted. IMO this is the hole that gold fills, IMO this is what started happening in the 70's. Back then the reserve looked flaky BUT there was no real alternate so ---> GOLD! Right now it looks like we are headed down that same path. First we will see pressure on the US as the safe haven status kicks into play, then we will see a reaction as the high USD starts to damage the system. That reaction will determine how the final phase of this market plays out IMO. However first things first, lets see how the up coming Euronut driven high plays out.

All JMO, 2c worth... etc, etc.. DYODD and don't blame me if Martians land and phuck all my predictions up!
 

Zed

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A move down to close that gap would definitely get everyone on the wrong side of the boat which would be the fuel for a moonshot...
The majority will always be proven wrong. Market law 101... Which is why the gold pop then drop idea appeals to me, it will screw the bears then the bulls in quick succession!
 

Zed

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"The status of the super currency is supposed to be unshakable, but the problem is that the US itself wants to give up this status..."
It is not an unreasonable inference but I think it would be headline news if there were a sound bite from an official stating the same. The mutterings from Jackson Hole seemed to support the idea as does the 'weaker USD needed' rhetoric. Maybe the Chinese have had the sentiment expressed behind closed doors. It would be logical for the US to seek an independent reserve, I think that would suit the Euronutz and the Chinese would be pragmatic enough to see it as a good alternate IF it is supported by an equitable infrastructure... unlike say SWIFT as a system which can be used to punish.
 

Zed

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I bet a gold back crypto is coming from China... they seem to be in a hurry so I guess they want to be ready for any major issues.
 

bemac

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I don't foresee any gold backed money coming, I mean, why go with a deflationary form of money? Who is going to pay off their current debts of paper trash with gold?
 

Zed

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Zed

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I don't foresee any gold backed money coming, I mean, why go with a deflationary form of money?
Why? You are Chinese and you want to instill confidence in your currency system and you just happen to have been buying many metric 'shit tons' of the stuff for years. They didn't acquire the gold for no reason... did they? I'm just wondering if this is the reason?

...but who really knows.

BTW the deflation seems inevitable. AKA credit crunch of some sort.
 

Strawboss

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Why? You are Chinese and you want to instill confidence in your currency system and you just happen to have been buying many metric 'shit tons' of the stuff for years. They didn't acquire the gold for no reason... did they? I'm just wondering if this is the reason?

...but who really knows.

BTW the deflation seems inevitable. AKA credit crunch of some sort.
gold is the only way for the Chinese to gain credibility on the global stage with their currency. But - gold alone isnt enough to catapult them to GRC...they would need to build trust that their legal systems would protect depositors and allow currency flows into and OUT of the country...
 

Zed

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gold is the only way for the Chinese to gain credibility on the global stage with their currency. But - gold alone isnt enough to catapult them to GRC...they would need to build trust that their legal systems would protect depositors and allow currency flows into and OUT of the country...
Yes... but its a good first step and will likely get the eastern world in as a base.
 

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gold is the only way for the Chinese to gain credibility on the global stage with their currency. But - gold alone isnt enough to catapult them to GRC...they would need to build trust that their legal systems would protect depositors and allow currency flows into and OUT of the country...
What if this is highest stakes poker for world domination & China is calling the feds fiat bluff?
US / feds don't have much room to lower rates so that means they will turn to QE during a downturn devaluing the currency....... again.
How do the Chinese call the feds fiat bluff? By making a golden call. Ante up US show us YOUR GOLD! / audit the fed & proove that you have more than lead covered bars. The ultimate call is calling the US bluff and if the US gots nuttin to back all the fiat they have bestowed on the rest of the countries they loose all credibility and loose reserve status. :bombs 8::bombs 7::bomb 1:
Then the rest of the world is out of the control of currently US dominate petrol dollar.

Or am I just tired and crazy?
 
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S&P futures since 1997, there's one single open gap at 1867.50 from feb 2016
here is my take on the s&p. Dollar, I believe is set to make new highs, and the metals have a little more room to run. ((Nothing has bet their 2 yr price obj -gdx approx $3.5 to go)- unless all my charts are wrong, could be.)) China needs a higher US dollar, and the US wants to devalue. It's interesting how the metals are not inverse to any of the above- It's possible that China/Russia is behind this which is linked to the blockchain- which the US is not on board- And, China putting a kibosh on people buying gold?? I think this is linked to making sure the dollar is on steroids. (so, for now everything moves up)..maybe.
 

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bemac

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Why? You are Chinese and you want to instill confidence in your currency system and you just happen to have been buying many metric 'shit tons' of the stuff for years. They didn't acquire the gold for no reason... did they? I'm just wondering if this is the reason?

...but who really knows.

BTW the deflation seems inevitable. AKA credit crunch of some sort.
They've acquired the gold for the same reason all the other big boys did. It can serve a purpose or two without backing your money by it. And I'm not saying they shouldn't, or should, I just don't see them doing it.
 

Goldhedge

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Not sure if you all missed this...?



The U.S. wants the dollar to no longer be the reserve currency? That doesn't make any sense.
Carney Urges Libra-Like Reserve Currency to End Dollar Dominance
By
Brian Swint
August 23, 2019

Mark Carney laid out a radical proposal for an overhaul of the global financial system that would eventually replace the dollar as a reserve currency with a Libra-like virtual one.

Just a few months before he steps down as Bank of England governor, Carney offered his vision for the international economy at a time of sweeping change.


I don't foresee any gold backed money coming, I mean, why go with a deflationary form of money? Who is going to pay off their current debts of paper trash with gold?
The current 'debts' are in reality fiat funny money. What if Trump gets to audit the FED and it's discovered what they have been doing for 100+ years is completely opposite of what we thought they were supposed to be doing?

Would that create a maelstrom of anger from the people? Many folks still believe the FED is part of the government and NOT a private bank no more 'federal' than FedEx. Nobody likes to be screwed like a Bernie Madoff client was...

Maybe that will give Trump the impetus (backed by the people/nation) to dissolve the FED? Tell them to take their fiat debt money system and shove it...?? Maybe we tell the FED to hit the road?? No payoff...?

They didn't acquire the gold for no reason... did they? I'm just wondering if this is the reason?
Good question.... China has been acquiring the yellow metal with US dollars for decades. Built ghost cities with fiat dollars. Gathered tangible items (mines) instead of worthless. At least, that's the rumor we've heard...


I wonder how contracts will be handled? We went from the gold-backed 1944 Bretton Woods dollar to the Petro dollar without so much as a ripple back in 1971. Did anyone notice? Gold reacted soon after (1980). Perhaps that's what will happen this go round? Backed by gold, or blockchain? Blockchain will be no better than paper fiat. Controlled by the world banksters... My understanding is Trump hung AJ's portrait in the Oval to send a clear message to the banksters....
 

Zed

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They've acquired the gold for the same reason all the other big boys did.
Which was reserve status & stability.

It can serve a purpose or two without backing your money by it.
Well yes but traditionally it was used to gain status then once gained it was sufficient to know it was there. Horse cart thing really, I think... they are on the way up so the gesture of backing needs to be made, you where on the way down so backing could simply be implied.

And I'm not saying they shouldn't, or should, I just don't see them doing it.
They may not, it may be a second phase or a later plan or simply an insurance policy.
 

Zed

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Goldhedge

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Yes... that was why I referred to Jackson Hole, it was being discussed.
The FED isn't the US. The FED wants to move on to yet 'another' fiat control system that would be infinitely more easily 'controlled' than the dollar... World debt.
 

Zed

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Zed

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A repeat post but worth revisiting.

 
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Zed

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Zed

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here is my take on the s&p. Dollar, I believe is set to make new highs, and the metals have a little more room to run. ((Nothing has bet their 2 yr price obj -gdx approx $3.5 to go)- unless all my charts are wrong, could be.)) China needs a higher US dollar, and the US wants to devalue. It's interesting how the metals are not inverse to any of the above- It's possible that China/Russia is behind this which is linked to the blockchain- which the US is not on board- And, China putting a kibosh on people buying gold?? I think this is linked to making sure the dollar is on steroids. (so, for now everything moves up)..maybe.
It still looks like a miniature Nov 2018. You can see where the algos are kicking in for support. Not a typical or normal pattern for an index, they are tussling to keep this one off the deck. Fair way down to the monthly trend, could do that without breaking the big picture. Weekly trend looks challenged. The daily is just messy.

Hanging on for now so it may go higher but time of year and all that.

I dunno, I wouldn't want to make a strong call on this one.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Gold Seasonal from the last time we had a 2.5 year odd strong bull run. 2009 to 2011 --> Dec/Jan is the weaker period. Armstong's cycle turn for 2020 is Jan?

Untitled.png
 

Zed

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Zed

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Full moon on Sep 14 just prior to an FOMC meet. How does that sound for a little gold price blow out? Just for fun I'm gonna keep an eye on that. Being a lunatic and all.
 
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bemac

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They may not, it may be a second phase or a later plan or simply an insurance policy.
Yeah, an insurance policy may be a good description.

Gold as money limits the power of gov'ts, I don't think at this time any of them have any desire to go there. They would go there only if they have to.
 

Zed

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Gold as money limits the power of gov'ts
So does zero bound!

There could be more to gain than lose...

Anyway, it is rumored for November so we don't have to wait long to see.