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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Strawboss

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Full moon on Sep 14 just prior to an FOMC meet. How does that sound for a little gold price blow out? Just for fun I gonna keep an eye on that. Being a lunatic and all.
Full moons...magic numbers (9)...secret meetings...

No wonder they think we are all deranged...
 

Strawboss

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So I have been thinking about this upcoming recession that is already overdue...and unless they have figured out a way to endlessly expand the current 10 year bull market - it seems likely that its coming sooner rather than later...and there are a lot of indicators that have a pretty good track record collectively of being forward looking...

Normally - you would have a stock market selloff that precedes the official data as the market is usually forward looking. So far - the selloff has been a soft correction - nothing major...

And then I think about the upcoming chaos in the EU with Brexit, the Italian thing - surely the Greek thing is bound to reappear - Spain will want to join in the fray once it gets going... I wonder how much further negative all this will take bonds in Europe? And what are the ramifications of that? Will a 1000 CHF note trade at a premium to its electronic equivalent?

And the big money over in Europe is already making plans to get out of dodge. The Norwegian SWF has announced it wants to buy more US assets and I am sure that is just the tip of the iceberg.

So - my pondering centers around the idea that when the Euro>USD ramps up...will that ameliorate the effects that a recession would have on things here otherwise? Surely it would have some sort of impact on things if say a few trillion on Euros decides to park on US assets...
 

Goldhedge

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What if monkeys fly outta my ass?
Seeings how neither one has happened...? Probably need a wholistic proctologist if it does...?
 

Zed

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Dalio!
 

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Zed

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Wolfe is worth a listen this week!

 

Zed

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I dunno how far they will meltup without getting some extreme response from government. I really don't want to see that, a good healthy strong bull market will do me just fine... gold @ 50K and general financial Armageddon scares me, that portends a system that will be hard to navigate. You could be right about everything and still lose it all.
 

Zed

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Rip Van Winkle

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Pretty close to my trigger date ,lol. Still stand by my opinion..my last 2 were off a couple days. I love silver, hopefully more than ever.
 

louky

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Saw this in another thread, "yoda formation"


gim poster aug 2019 said:



Started from 1269, laid out to the day, april 24 "wait for it".....the ultimate NCN memory trade


2 years ago

bounce off bottom of the box 1269, surprise

Best part is we're in the box, so charts aren't even needed any more.

1296
1287
1278
1269

1269, all that matters of course. can you see it?

gold futures lol. until it's in the upper box for a safety net, beware. 1359, think 1269....
Sidenote ....1359, what happened 2019 after first daily close above it?


Sounds familiar? I think eventually we'll see what happens at 1251 pivot or if lucky 1269 bottom of the box holds
NCN isn't about exact precision, even though it usually is. gives you mental notes about price action and where main decisions are normally made. no confusing indicators, imaginary lines, etc required. never changes either.

It's February, mmmmhm. pullback target would be 1269-78 possibly
CoT data up to dec 31st released now. Continues to suggest 1278-69 with 1251 pivot still on the table.
Always same #'s to watch, forever and always....no matter what lines, fibs, indicators say.
Gold, 1269 bottom of the box posted for years......wait for it ;)



View attachment 129937
At 1270 and 80 cents, still "wait for it"

Playing around here now, bumping head on bottom of inner box 1296 [1287-1278] 1269. Just like we planned it.




Why goldies popping today guys, was it some fake news or bottom of the box within 50 cents of target posted for years and years?Hehe



View attachment 130085
1269.35

1269, high probability trade, it doesn't just break down. Bottom of the box. NCN. Never changes.

I call it Yoda formation


1269
1278
1287
1296

Stairway to heaven
 
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Zed

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Gold 4H... Chart later. Not liking the action short term. Looking for a drop before any pop. Seeing ~1494 as the probable floor.
 

savvydon

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Wolfe is worth a listen this week!

You know this report got me thinking... Everyone is talking inverted yield curve/recession imminent. What if the Fed drinks the koolaid, cuts the interest rates, and as a result the markets rocket? US economy stays strong (it already has a fair bit going for it), dollar moves up because it is the place to be, and PMs move up because interest rates are way low. This could be the everything up scenario going into 2020 that Zed and Martin Armstrong have been kicking around for a while now. Just saying, I agree with Wolf that the market is unlikely to do what so many are expecting it to do.

What I would really like to hear about is a macro scenario where the PMs don’t move up from here. I just want to be able to envision a contrarian picture from the one that is in my mind now and is causing me to be so confident regarding my position. It freaks me out being on the right side of a trade for a change.:oops:
 

savvydon

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BTW, dollar pushing up into a 2 year high tonight during Asian trading. US market closure for Labor Day has allowed other markets to quietly lift up the dollar in relation to other currencies. It will be interesting to see how US markets respond in the morning.
 

savvydon

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Here is a current chart of the USD, annotated with my channel:

screenshot_107.png


I guess as long as we stay within this channel the momentum is up? Any critiques here about the construction of this channel?
 

Zed

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Everyone is talking inverted yield curve/recession imminent.
Yeah... I guess an over the top bond bull running on the "greater fool" principle distorts the traditionally reliable message of the "sober bond market". If ever there was a blowoff top in bonds this is looking an awful lot like it. Rates do go up faster than they come down and despite the central planners desires the market still has the power to drag them kick and screaming into a world of pain. The thing is that the bond bulls are betting on central banks being "the greater fool"... and I guess they are probably right! That is screamingly bullish for gold IMO... I just don't want to see the system break over the fool hardy attempt to fight the market. I guess it really will set the scene for a currency reset of some sort... crytpo anyone?

It freaks me out being on the right side of a trade for a change.:oops:
The markup phase is where you have to lose the contrarian instinct, the crowd come to the party and you need to get comfortable for a while and keep a weather eye out for intoxicated behavior that may start trouble. Welcome to the fat, dumb and comfortable part of the trade, don't get cute and go with the flow. When this gets really popular we can stick our contrarian hats back on, but not until then. Ideally we sell the end of this phase and then we trade like pirates with play money in the last phase. That will see mad multiples but it will be shakey ground.... at that time you want to be looking elsewhere for beat up value to park the bulk of your investments. JMO... 2c worth etc...
 

Zed

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BTW, dollar pushing up into a 2 year high tonight during Asian trading. US market closure for Labor Day has allowed other markets to quietly lift up the dollar in relation to other currencies. It will be interesting to see how US markets respond in the morning.
USDX 120 or BUST! or then BUST!
 

Zed

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Gold 4H... Chart later. Not liking the action short term. Looking for a drop before any pop. Seeing ~1494 as the probable floor.
They are gonna come back off break and try thump the snot out of it. I think they fail... but I think they try.
 

Zed

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louky

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Here is a current chart of the USD, annotated with my channel:

View attachment 140042

I guess as long as we stay within this channel the momentum is up? Any critiques here about the construction of this channel?
I've posted this chart progression since back before it hit C

Bullish dollar/beware view, assuming 93 area backtest holds

Potential pattern, posted this before when it had just hit the trend line at c

 
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Zed

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Zed

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Here is a current chart of the USD, annotated with my channel:

View attachment 140042

I guess as long as we stay within this channel the momentum is up? Any critiques here about the construction of this channel?
~100-103 is going to be tough sledding but if we top that the rest of the move could be quite fast. I guess we will mess around under 103 until early next year and past the end of whatever washout has to happen to keep this gold bull healthy.

Marty says Jan 2020, so that's kinda good enough for me until proven wrong!

DXY-M-20190803-1.png
 

Zed

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Slowly rolling over but no really bad momentum obvious yet.... yet. I can't see what will rescue us this time but don't bet against us as we have been the luckiest SOB's on the planet for a while now. Logic says that it can't last... but...

 

Zed

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Rip Van Winkle

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PPLT rising price and lower vol
 

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louky

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Screenshot_20190903-165739_NetDania.jpg
Gold may correct and silver not so much. I wouldnt be surprised to see silver around 18 before any "scary" pull back. Then a double top in the 20's or possibly at a new high, medium term.

Should outperform as well after gold corrects, like i've stated previously.
#nopullbacksitonlygoesupnowadays
 

Zed

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#1 The U.S. and China just slapped painful new tariffs on one another, thus escalating the trade war to an entirely new level.
#2 JPMorgan Chase is projecting that the trade war will cost “the average U.S. household” $1,000 per year.
#3 Yield curve inversions have preceded every single U.S. recession since the 1950s, and the fact that it has happened again is one of the big reasons why Wall Street is freaking out so much lately.
#4 We just witnessed the largest decline in U.S. consumer sentiment in 7 years.
#5 Mortgage defaults are rising at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last financial crisis.
#6 Sales of luxury homes valued at $1.5 million or higher were down five percentduring the second quarter of 2019.
#7 The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for the very first time since September 2009.
#8 The Cass Freight Index has been falling for a number of months. According to CNBC, it fell “5.9% in July, following a 5.3% decline in June and a 6% drop in May.”
#9 Gross private domestic investment in the United States was down 5.5 percentduring the second quarter of 2019.
#10 Crude oil processing at U.S. refiners has fallen by the most that we have seen since the last recession.
#11 The price of copper often gives us a clear indication of where the economy is heading, and it is now down 13 percent over the last six months.
#12 When it looks like an economic crisis is coming, investors often flock to precious metals. So it is very interesting to note that the price of gold is up more than 20 percent since May.
#13 Women’s clothing retailer Forever 21 “is reportedly close to filing for bankruptcy protection”.
#14 We just learned that Sears and Kmart will close “nearly 100 additional stores”by the end of this year.
#15 Domestic shipments of RVs have fallen an astounding 20 percent so far in 2019.
#16 The Labor Department has admitted that the U.S. economy actually has 501,000 less jobs than they previously thought.
#17 S&P 500 earnings per share estimates have been steadily falling all year long.
#18 Morgan Stanley says that the possibility that we will see a global recession “is high and rising”.
#19 Global trade fell 1.4 percent in June from a year earlier, and that was the biggest drop that we have seen since the last recession.
#20 The German economy contracted during the second quarter, and the German central bank “is predicting the third quarter will also post a decline”.
#21 According to CNBC, the S&P 500 “just sent a screaming sell signal” to U.S. investors.
#22 Masanari Takada is warning that we could soon see a “Lehman-like” plunge in the stock market.
#23 Corporate insiders are dumping stocks at a pace that we haven’t seen in more than a decade.
#24 Apple CEO Tim Cook has been dumping millions of dollars worth of Apple stock.
#25 Instead of pumping his company’s funds into the stock market, Warren Buffett has decided to hoard 122 billion dollars in cash. This appears to be a clear indication that he believes that a crisis is coming.
#26 Investors are selling their shares in emerging markets funds at a pace that we have never seen before.
#27 The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit the highest level that we have ever seen in the month of June.
#28 Americans are searching Google for the term “recession” more frequently than we have seen at any time since 2009.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Gary, "dumb money bidding up silver"

Gary.... fuck off mate, this is the futures market... there is not a lot of dum money and the small money has little impact. Typically these fast moves are short squeezes, people cutting losses and getting nervous. They burn hot and short then we step back and see where the floor is. That is what you are trying to describe... get it right mate... farrrrrrk!

I hate this sort of shitty analysis, in reality he has no clue about the balance of forces driving silver here. Frankly neither do we!

BTW: Silver is so thin it has the potential to run like a gold junior, picking how it is going to behave isn't always going to be a given. I'd not be "betting the farm" on anything here, we have not seen enough of silver trading under this new bull move to be confident of any technical signals.

Silver is most probably in full bull mode now and the only safe strategy is most probably buying weakness which may even translate to buying consolidations as it is tending toward in gold. I'd not really get too cute about calling anything here until she has settled down.

How many gold top calls have been wrong in the last couple of months?

Trading conditions have altered, watch closely.

JMO etc...

But....fark! Dum money is still in bed and will not wake up until the bulk of this move is done.
 

Zed

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