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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

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Anyone has seen a chart of Japan in the last few hours, its up 2% early in the trading session? unable to spot a motivator for that move. maybe relations with Japan and Korea, I don't know...
 

Zed

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My gold miners are feeling a little depressed that gold didn't follow through... {sigh}
 

Zed

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A Perth Mint White Paper - It targets Australian SMSFs (Self Managed Superannuation Funds) Super is compulsory here and most are in professionally managed funds BUT the same structure can be used to set up a private superfund. I do this... of course, because I'm an opinionated SOB. Anywhooooo it may be of interest to you lot up there.
 

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Zed

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4 other times in 30 years 83 weekly rsi
Yes... but on some occasions price has moved 30% beyond RSI 83. Is a correction coming, sure... BUT we can easily challenge the 21 level here BEFORE being over 83 matters for much. If we pull back a little from 83 here there is a precedent that sees close to +40% by the time 83 was crossed and price finally peaked. The equivalent move here would see $25 being challenged.

The other thing is we are coming off a big consolidation base and we have not set any trading pattern yet. The drivers have changed here and I don't think it is going to be that easy to pick a trading character on virtually no data under these conditions. Silver has only just woken up, I'd be hedging with options at the most until we see this settle down to some sort of pattern.

I think that people may be moving way too quickly to crap on this move.

JMO...
 
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Zed

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Study Discovers That If The Debt Machine Was Turned Off, The U.S. Would Immediately Plunge Into A Horrifying Depression
It's not a question of if, but rather when. Because nothing lasts forever.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Yes, the trade war is...



... both leaders get to put on a good show and then blame each other for a cyclical event that they knew would develop as a consequence of their previous polices. Much better than having to face up to and own the fact that government caused the issue in the first place!

Moi cynical? NEVER!
 

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Yes... but on some occasions price has moved 30% beyond RSI 83. Is a correction coming, sure... BUT we can easily challenge the 21 level here BEFORE being over 83 matters for much. If we pull back a little from 83 here there is a precedent that sees close to +40% by the time 83 was crossed and price finally peaked. The equivalent move here would see $25 being challenged.

The other thing is we are coming off a big consolidation base and we have not set any trading pattern yet. The drivers have changed here and I don't think it is going to be that easy to pick a trading character on virtually no data under these conditions. Silver has only just woken up, I'd be hedging with options at the most until we see this settle down to some sort of pattern.

I think that people may be moving way too quickly to crap on this move.

JMO...
Not crapping on the move at all. I posted june 21 before the silver even started performing that retest of 2016 high was coming or even possibly new high with minimial pullbacks, but history repeats so people need to be aware

Gold may correct and silver not so much. I wouldnt be surprised to see silver around 18 before any "scary" pull back. Then a double top in the 20's or possibly new high, medium term. Gold sentiment is off the reservation and silver doesnt have banks piled in short, like gold. So i'm not expecting it to get hammered this time, but who knows.

Should outperform as well after gold corrects, like i've stated previously.
View attachment 140103

#nopullbacksitonlygoesupnowadays
 
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Scorpio

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just for reference, what we are seeing of late is what we also saw during the bull prior,

seasonal for metals kicks in mid summer, and we get a run,
then a fall break before the run out into the end of year

a decent correction would be welcomed, as at that point the table would be set for a nice run until after the first of the year.
 

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Zed

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I dont know what would make anyone think bonds could drop
... yes but, this bond bull should have died a LONG time ago. I mean really, it's like shorting TSLA was.... a wealth hazard. Right but early... It just astounds me how far this thing has got.
 

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Zed

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It's not a question of if, but rather when. Because nothing lasts forever.
Well except for bond bull markets, apparently they do! :Out: o_O :surrender: :stfu: :don't know:
 

louky

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just for reference, what we are seeing of late is what we also saw during the bull prior,

seasonal for metals kicks in mid summer, and we get a run,
then a fall break before the run out into the end of year

a decent correction would be welcomed, as at that point the table would be set for a nice run until after the first of the year.
If anyone saved my long term model of highs and lows months that's only missed like 2 since sept 2016, they'd see it shows up from summer to December with only minor pullback.
 
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Rip Van Winkle

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Finally some red on the table. Probably going to wait till either late tomorrow or early next week to see if we're forming new channels, before I buy in.
 

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So to recap, i've never called for a "through the floorboards" move. I posted "bear porn", "be aware" charts/info. The only actual downside target i've posted is 1503 pivot, where at that point i'd want to see what happens. Historically, it's the decision number. It has opened up in my eyes because 1539 failed last week. Below 1503 with a sustained move, then the lower box comes into focus. My number to watch for something deeper from there would be 1476.

I do know the cot postioning is going to unwind at some point and it's going to be a lot uglier than everyone expects. When is another story? I still remain bullish long term above 1269.
 

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Failure bottom of the box usually isn't pretty. Think back when 1359 area was being tested originally. Everyone thought 1368 was a guaranteed , done deal breakout. Not expecting that level of destruction, but just saying.....1503 pivot
When 1539 goes, you know they're gonna start dumping....1503 historical pivot...1518ish looked like "chart support" on futures short term channel from august
 
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Strawboss

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Couple of points to remember for those that dont have a lot of experience in the gold/silver markets...

1. In a bull market - the corrections are usually swift and steep...heart wrenching if you are overleveraged...prices usually rise in a stair step fashion and fall like a brick thrown off the side of a cliff...that is what we are seeing this morning. This is typical of a bull market...
2. Trying to time tops/bottoms is fools play for most people. Instead of trying to capture the exact top or bottom - try to position so that you can get the bulk of the move in either direction.
3. Corrections that begin from an overbought level (like we are currently) typically take some time to digest. Its not likely to be a day or 2 thing and then its off to the races. Its possible - but not likely. Especially when the overbought level extends into the weekly charts. Patience will serve you well...
4. Try to tune out the hype in either direction. Those that try to convince you that THIS TIME is DIFFERENT...and that gold/silver are gonna go to the moon...have a track record of being wrong again and again and again... Instead - think in terms of the tide...there is an ebb and flow...prices go up...prices come down...
5. Unless you are really, really experienced and know what you are doing - do NOT try to short a bull market. That is a pretty solid recipe for disaster...

Ok - it was more than a couple points. Just trying to share some hard earned lessons I have picked up over the years for anyone reading this that isnt a grizzled veteran of these markets...
 
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looks like the correction in gold was Short lived, I think gold hit 1505.5 (not 1405.5) briefly. if that's the case, expect new highs soon. the cots data haven't been as honest as I would expect. (sorry for my mind weld)
 
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Zed

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Blain: "Central Banks Are No Longer A Solution – They Have Become The Risk"
 

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looks like the correction in gold was Short lived, I think gold hit 1405.5 briefly. if that's the case, expect new highs soon. the cots data haven't been as honest as I would expect.
So close........05 was bearflag target i posted Saturday, 03 historical number. Upper box remains open above 1503 pivot.

1539 has to be support for higher targets to be valid. Could get a daily bottom/bounce to there, in which case i'd be watching the hourly wicks for support/resistance


In theory 1539 should of held and below 1530 confirms a false breakout. Of course nothing is fool proof.

As far as charts, if you look at 1 hour there's a clear bear flag with breakdown target of 1505-10.

The historically significant number between bottom of the box 1539 and top of lower box 1494, is of course 1503 pivot. So that's where i'd look. Below it opens up deeper correction into september, 1476 would probably be the next number to watch.
 
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Zed

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Lately the big down days have been one day wonders.