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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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Zed

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Squeezy on the S&P today... looking for follow through on Friday.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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we may have one more leg down in gold if NFP crushes estimates tmw
Setup for a red Friday, that looks plausible.
 

Strawboss

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Zed

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If you believe that angle of ascent is sustainable...I would like you to PM me your dealer so I can get some...lol

:beer:
You sound like a jaded housewife!
 

Zed

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Zed

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GDX Daily - Late in this move but we have a potential short term entry point. Not a great risk reward but maybe a short trade for a few points. Watch the next session closely.

GDX-D-20190906-1.png
 

Strawboss

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GDX Daily - Late in this move but we have a potential short term entry point. Not a great risk reward but maybe a short trade for a few points. Watch the next session closely.

View attachment 140319
Yeah - I think you are reaching buddy...

Look at that negative divergence with the RSI going back to middle of June. Surely its gonna take more than 1 day to resolve that divergence. Unless you are suggesting that the divergence is not yet mature?
 

Zed

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Look at that negative divergence with the RSI going back to middle of June. Surely its gonna take more than 1 day to resolve that divergence. Unless you are suggesting that the divergence is not yet mature?
It's longer in the tooth on the weekly! There MAY be another swing higher here, like I said... watch the action in the next session and see if buying is coming back into it here. This is the point to look for it... but yes late in the piece and not the best risk reward, most of the move looks done.
 

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Another observation from your chart...

1.png
 

Zed

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Another observation from your chart...

View attachment 140321
That is also a series of higher lows and we are not coming off totally overbought. The last time it got messy at this level the STO/RSI embedded and went on a run.

Sooooo... like I said... IF buying is to arrive it is likely it will be in the next couple of sessions or so. Watch it... it may just break down here, yet to be seen but until it does we have a POSSIBLE entry.
 

Zed

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Keep in mind that GDX is yet to break the ~Aug 16 highs when gold was a measly 1320! GDX has a way to go here to reach a mediocre performance!
 

Zed

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louky

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I doubt it, saw everyone on any financial social media way too bullish and confident with silver. Normally you dont even look at it until 50% of the whole move is lost. In this case, with everyone being so greedy, even with every possible indicator pointing to a big dump, it might take even more? We'll see....

20190906_055518.jpg



Silver, Time for something scary. Usually 50% of the move is a good guess for it.
 

Strawboss

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hey louky - in the chart above where gold hit 1503 - that is a spot chart whereas before you were using a futures chart...

Is there a significance between the 2 in terms of your system? Should we be looking at the futures chart on advances and the spot chart on declines?
 

louky

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hey louky - in the chart above where gold hit 1503 - that is a spot chart whereas before you were using a futures chart...

Is there a significance between the 2 in terms of your system? Should we be looking at the futures chart on advances and the spot chart on declines?
It's the same numbers regardless. Futures "chart target" was 1505-10 target posted saturday, historical number is 03. If futures gets to 03, then on spot youll probably be looking at 1494. Still all good above 1503 on futures is what i would look at, in theory. The variance/discrepancy between the two depends on contract month/expiry, there's not a set difference. So.....it depends
 

louky

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I showed spot because it's already to 1503, so you can see the price action at that number, ie nails in it up or down. Becoming resistance, start looking down. Support, then higher still valid. As far as recognizing, "confirmed", well that just takes time and study. Like how i posted "1503 looks confirmed", then it popped to 1550 right after without looking back.
 

louky

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1505-10 is just the futures trader pattern, i. guess. 1503 is still the nunber to watch ultimately on futures for me. That's where the institutions? Algos? Aliens? are....ie where the magic is
 

savvydon

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1505-10 is just the futures trader pattern, i. guess. 1503 is still the nunber to watch ultimately on futures for me. That's where the institutions? Algos? Aliens? are....ie where the magic is
What planet are you from?
 

louky

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Top of lower box 1494 NCN. Unless that goes i can't see any legitimate acceleration/ panic to the downside. Today was just yawn, 1503 pivot.
To expand further, what i mean about yawn day is 1539 to 1503 is obvious, telegraphed, but isn't really actionable. As gold and silver grow in price, daily moves will be increasingly meaningless. Only real investors will survive, traders get chewed up by volatility....unless they are HFT's
 

louky

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1539 has to be support for higher targets to be valid. Could get a daily bottom 1503/bounce to 1539, in which case i'd be watching the hourly wicks for support/resistance
1503 and 1539 are the only historically significant numbers here in this range. I posted 330pm to watch forthe daily bottom at 1503, then the "fool you" pop back to 1539 possible. We'd have to watch 1539. If the wicks going up into it, resistance, it's fake. Has to be support, wicks going down and confirmed, for any higher target.
 

louky

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Lower high, LL today silver. i would need to see support on 1+8+9+0 now. Otherwise keep looking down
 
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Rip Van Winkle

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1+8+9+0?
 

Strawboss

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So that correction everyone was talking about has arrived....
Everyone?

I seem to recall mentioning several times about the divergences that were showing on GDX, GDXJ and gold and everyone telling me that my calls for a correction were premature, that it had much further to run, that this time is different, etc...
 

savvydon

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Everyone?

I seem to recall mentioning several times about the divergences that were showing on GDX, GDXJ and gold and everyone telling me that my calls for a correction were premature, that it had much further to run, that this time is different, etc...
But he is not bitter!

Seriously, I heeded the Straw warning and took some of the froth off the table on Wednesday. i’m Now waiting for my limit orders to kick in on lower buys. Hats off to the Straw man for his measured sobriety in what has been an otherwise drunkenly wild ride. 2c
 

Strawboss

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But he is not bitter!

Seriously, I heeded the Straw warning and took some of the froth off the table on Wednesday. i’m Now waiting for my limit orders to kick in on lower buys. Hats off to the Straw man for his measured sobriety in what has been an otherwise drunkenly wild ride. 2c
Not bitter. Had a great couple of days...

I just wish I could share what I have learned over the years to you all and help you avoid some of the mistakes/messes I have made in the past...

While we all make bad calls from time to time - trades that go sideways on us, etc... there are some things that really stick out in terms of providing advance warning...and negative divergences is one of them (there are others)...sky high RSI readings are another...

So...we just printed a long legged doji on the hourly gold chart...

View attachment 140180

So...why is this potentially important? Well - as it turns out a long legged doji can signal a reversal - especially after a strong uptrend...

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/long-legged-doji.asp

Now granted - this is only on an hourly chart so nothing too significant...yet.

But - we are in the zone where the rally might be getting a bit long in the tooth...and some of the momo guys might be looking to book profits off this move...(and the shorts might be looking to make a stand...)

My gut feel is that we will have a correction sooner than later...nothing too serious - but it might last for a month or 2...

Is this the beginning of that? Probably not. But it could be...
The rocket was fired in jest...biggest rally in silver in quite a while and no one posted a rocket...so figured I would oblige...

Seriously though - look at the negative divergence in gold v. RSI... history STRONGLY suggests there will be a correction...

View attachment 140196
Yeah - I think you are reaching buddy...

Look at that negative divergence with the RSI going back to middle of June. Surely its gonna take more than 1 day to resolve that divergence. Unless you are suggesting that the divergence is not yet mature?
Another observation from your chart...

View attachment 140321