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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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Warning... this is click bait selling subscriptions sort of stuff... but... they have a point. It lines up with what I think is a major threat for private wealth going forward. My fear is that we swing hard socialist before this train wreck is over and that is going to do the really big damage!

https://orders.cloudsna.com/?cid=MKT417512&eid=MKT423984&assetId=AST115803&page=1

I'm early Gen X and I have traveled in the wake of the boomers my entire life. Generally that has been a negative being on the back end of whatever trend they have driven. Just when it looks like it could be a big positive their kids come along and look like they are going to be a bigger issue in a more dangerous way!

Yey socialism! What could possibly go wrong with this? We could all work for the government!
 

Zed

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GDX Weekly - So we broke down one the daily, still not a lower low yet. I'd say ~28 is about where buying needs to come in here. BB bands sit @ 27.5 on its lower band today but that will move. Below 28 then 26 is looking around the buy zone. I think that is reasonably probable. The weekly chart has a purple circle that looks to me like the sort of action that will unfold here. I'm guessing that the next push up gets us over that 32 odd line but we will have to take a breath before that happens.

So yey! Some sort of correction is here, but note that the blog-o-sphere called 4 or 5 out of the last 1 corrections! The bias is still way negative which means this will probable end sooner than I think.

GDX-W-20190907-1.png
 

Zed

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Silver Daily - Sitting on ~ %50 of the last move on a closing basis. Chart support evident here. Note that support has been lifting from below the centre BB line to it and then above it. IMO silver is going to try and base out here over the next few sessions BUT the weekly candle looks suicidal! That is a big old shooting star! Next week gives us confirmation...gulp! I've seen silver negate this sort of pattern in major uptrend so it isn't the end of the earth here. Remember that the less liquid the instrument the more unreliable the technical patterns can be! aka gold juniors! What fun!

AGUSD-D-20190907-1.png
 

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Truth is...none of us knows for sure how these moves are gonna play out. All we can do is share with each other our best guesses based on our experiences - and hopefully - we can help each other in our separate ways to navigate these treacherous waters...

I so very much appreciate the inputs that you all give on this thread...and I try to pay my way by contributing my 2 cents from time to time.

We are all in this together...and none of us are getting out of this alive...

So - lets see if we can enjoy the ride...take care of our families and our obligations...and hopefully help some others out along the way...
 

Zed

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Gold Daily - You know what, that $50 odd price range is looking more like a consolidation for now that a proper correction! I'd say over the mid 1490's and we are not looking so bad at all on that chart.

Since we are getting into the self quoting around here! Last Wednesday...

Gold hasn't quite "done it" yet... can't take 1494 off the table right now and below that low 14's?
Actually on the daily chart it looks more like 1496 on the close but splitting hairs really!

I continue to think that we get a really hot squirt before this properly corrects, too much top calling and not enough rockets DAMN IT! LOL.

AUUSD-D-20190907-1.png
 

Zed

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Truth is...none of us knows for sure how these moves are gonna play out. All we can do is share with each other our best guesses based on our experiences - and hopefully - we can help each other in our separate ways to navigate these treacherous waters...

I so very much appreciate the inputs that you all give on this thread...and I try to pay my way by contributing my 2 cents from time to time.

We are all in this together...and none of us are getting out of this alive...

So - lets see if we can enjoy the ride...take care of our families and our obligations...and hopefully help some others out along the way...
If we start trading below that say 1494 level then I think we are looking at a real correction. So we wait and watch...
 

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Zed

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GLD Daily - IMO it's a consolidation until we break down properly here. Watch momentum for a break upward. This could well be a bull doing what bulls do.... stopping and shaking off as many riders as possible! When I see lower highs I will be talking correction, for now it looks more like consolidation to me. ... but maybe I'm a drunk ass bull!

GLD-D-20190906-2.png
 
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Strawboss

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Here is the alternate potential outcome...

1.png


Hey. It could happen.

:dduck::dduck::dduck:
 

Goldhedge

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My fear is that we swing hard socialist before this train wreck is over and that is going to do the really big damage!
That possibility exists. If The Bern or any one of the other leftists get in the WH and get control of both the Reps and Senate...

I expect a lot of nasty civil war activities taking place.
 

Zed

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That possibility exists. If The Bern or any one of the other leftists get in the WH and get control of both the Reps and Senate...

I expect a lot of nasty civil war activities taking place.

Trump may just be what riles the left leaning youth up.
 

louky

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While i agree about ~1494 (it's top of the box), my best guess is that if 1503 goes that will be the signal 1467-1476 is coming....it's the pivot between boxes
 
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Rip Van Winkle

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So what trading strategies do the pros use here? I'm guessing mostly TA but within that framework how much weight do you give the different indicators? Thoughts on Elliott waves, risk management (does this strategy change with the dollar amount in your account?)
 

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Quarterly Pump -N- Dump is what I'd say, and did to several "forever up" singers.
Futures closure will be very interesting.

 

Zed

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Right, so Russia is sending a message here...
 

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Zed

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Well the fed does need a credible scapegoat for the the inevitable.
 

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Zed

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If we are discussing unsustainable price moves let's talk about instruments that are in a very mature phase of the market cycle!
 

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Zed

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Understanding Italy... this is some older but worthwhile RealVision programming...



 

Zed

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Quarterly Pump -N- Dump is what I'd say, and did to several "forever up" singers.
Futures closure will be very interesting.

Just a few comments, seeing as you are back for your routine bowl evacuation! Why not get more involved in the conversation and drop the cynical attitude you always seem to bring along with you?

Gold and Silver miners trade on profit expectations which are driven by costs. The reason they are leveraged is that beyond the cost base every dollar on the precious metals price flows directly through to the bottom line. This assumes that input costs, oil being the really important one, are not moving as fast as POS & POG. Soooooooo.... off a low base the profit % growth is exponential as can be the relative share price. The fact is that 2016 costs are not 2019 costs, especially if you count the opportunity cost of hedging excessively which is what the low price environment forces. Sooooo... you really can't just look at a comparison between a 2016 price response to silver and a 2019 price response and draw any meaningful conclusion without getting your head around the underlying fundamentals. If we look @ costs and hedging you will have the explanation for why some silvers stocks are flying and why some are shitting down and watching the others dance. If you are going to bet on the dogs MAKE sure that you get WHY they are lagging and that there is a foreseeable end to it.

Secondly silver is a thin market with some deep pocketed highly leveraged players. Given that and given that we know a +$20 price will challenge a number of market participants I'm afraid that you are really going to have to expect volatility and it will be really hard to play until she settles down into some sort of pattern. Again, this is why I suggested options are used as an insurance & dividend play around any major silver exposure you may have.

Now, before we go expecting any lasting correction here we really need to see gold start breaking down properly into a mid term correction. So far that has not happened. Should POG reverse here you are likely to see a whipsaw move back up in silver, one that is unplayably fast for your average guy.

So yeah... this is going to be choppy and hard to play IMO. Don't get sucked into thinking it will be relatively "callable" from a T/A perspective. Personally I'd focus on gold and treat silver accordingly and not look to silver for the early lead at this point in the cycle. Later that will become of more valid tactic.

All JMO, off course!
 
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Zed

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P.S.> "Forever up" isn't something I see in the silver crowd, to me they look more beaten up and staggering around the worse for wear. This is just peachy by me!
 

Zed

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This is the best graphic I can come up with to illustrate above comments... this isn't 2016.



That said silver has a high % of byproduct production soooooo that is very influenced by the price of the other metals and how the accountants want to express cost or if they have contracted to a revenue streamer who is taking the price risk... etc.. etc.. Silver is probably the most complex metal in terms of understanding the fundamentals both physical and financial.
 

Zed

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Anywhoooooo... to conclude with silver the key question here is ---> Did the price dump secure the required liquidity to relieve the upward price pressure. aka How deep are the longs pockets and how high is their conviction? In recent years the answer to that has been shallow and low but we seem to be witnessing a sea-change. Care to guess at what point that really matters to price....? I don't. So I watch with interest...
 

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Silver is probably the most complex metal in terms of understanding the fundamentals both physical and financial.
True dat...
 

Strawboss

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I totally agree on whats in front of us is gonna be very volatile and traditional TA methods will be of limited value. Its gonna take more "feel" for those that want to trade the ebbs and flows...(and big brass balls)...(and a way to replenish the account when a trade goes sideways on you at 3am while you are sleeping)...(and where stops are routinely hunted, prices are choppy and external events are fast evolving)....

For most - I think the best strategy is to put your chips in the pot and ride it out. For those that wish to trade the swings...only play with 1/3 of the position...keep the other 2/3 in play at all times.

Its gonna be a WILD ride - I think that much is a given...

One tweet from Trump regarding gold and its a moonshot...
 

Zed

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One tweet from Trump regarding gold and its a moonshot...
You know it is a probable as anything else here given the way markets are these days.

PS> I need a damn proof reader! or more time... apologies for the mistake ridden posts.
 

Goldhedge

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Email I get...



Opportunity in Precious Metal Junior Take-Over Candidates

David Erfle
Friday September 6, 2019 09:58 EST

Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk

(Kitco News) - Last week in this column, I mentioned the likelihood of a correction in the precious metals complex continuing this week. After testing overhead resistance levels during an extreme overbought situation in the sector, we witnessed a sharp decline in both gold and silver on Thursday, which may usher in a healthy three to six-week correction phase.

A sustained correction during the early stages of this new precious metals bull market would be a welcome buying opportunity for generalist investors who remain underweight the sector. If we are indeed on the threshold of a bigger correction, there is strong support at the $1480-$1500 region in December Gold, along with the $28 level in the GDX. But I would not rule out a quick test of $1420 in December Gold and the $25-$26 region in the global miner ETF, as corrections can be short and sharp during precious metals bull markets.

However, the good news is a sharp correction would give late-comers to the sector a chance of better entry positions in the best in breed junior developer/explorers, as I expect M&A to begin heating up shortly after the upcoming industry only conferences taking place in Colorado next week. With most big money traders, fund managers, and industry professionals returning from their respective summer holidays, these conferences will be buzzing with excitement over the recent breakout in the gold space.

Beginning on September 10th, the 9th annual Beaver Creek Summit will bring together institutional investors, sell-side representatives and corporate executives from senior precious metals companies to meet and network with some of the most prospective junior producers, explorers and developers from around the globe. The conference has been extended to four days this year and is my personal favorite to attend. One on one meetings have been scheduled with most of the juniors I own/cover in my subscription service, while taking place in a spectacular venue.

The Denver Gold Forum, which begins directly afterwards on September 15th, is the world’s oldest and largest gathering of precious commodity equities. This independent, conflict-of-interest free platform conference presents precious metal producers, developers, and explorers to the world’s leading fund and portfolio managers, sovereign wealth funds, institutional investors, and equities analysts. Presented every year since 1989, the conference now showcases seven-eighths of the world’s publicly traded gold and silver companies when measured by production or reserves.

Immediately after these conferences took place last year, the Barrick/Randgold merger was announced, which was closely followed by the Newmont/Goldcorp merger a few months later. Leading into this year’s Colorado gatherings, we have the gold price in the process of possibly building a new floor above $1500 after breaking out of a strong 6-year base below $1375 in June.

Meanwhile, juniors who are attractive take-over candidates have begun to be sought out by speculators searching for the next buyout. Global miners are in dire need of replacing ounces and if they wait too long before pulling the trigger on an attractive acquisition target, another Australian major may beat them to it.

As global North American miners have been consolidating and announcing near-term divestments of projects recently, Australian global miners have been snapping up Canadian juniors who control large, high-margin projects with blue sky potential.

If you have been patiently waiting for a sustained correction before taking positions in the hottest sector in the marketplace, I advise accumulating a basket of developer/explorers who have 100% control of large projects which are at, or near, the finance stage and meet the criteria of more recent acquisitions. Weakness in the best in breed junior developers during this correction will be an opportune time to begin building, or adding to, long-term holding positions in take-over candidates.

At some point in the near-future, we will see the juniors begin to outperform the GDX in a big way once speculative fever hits the entire precious metals complex. Over the past few years, I have positioned Junior Miner Junky subscribers in the best in breed precious metal juniors well ahead of this latest surge higher in both gold and silver. If you would like to receive my research, newsletter, portfolio, and trade alerts, please click here for instant access.


By David Erfle Contributor to Kitco News oroyplata43@yahoo.com

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/...ecious-metal-junior-take-over-candidates.html
 

Joe King

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PS> I need a damn proof reader! or more time... apologies for the mistake ridden posts.
ok, just don't let it happen again.



;)



:shit happens:
 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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1503 looks good, should pop soon
The opening crowd are duly capitulating down here. I wonder if the closing crowd will cheer up a little. You give a guy the weekend to worry and by Monday morning the poor sap is champing @ the bit to jump out of the nearest window without looking down.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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louky

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The opening crowd are duly capitulating down here. I wonder if the closing crowd will cheer up a little. You give a guy the weekend to worry and by Monday morning the poor sap is champing @ the bit to jump out of the nearest window without looking down.
Looks like it, thought it would bounce a bit more than 1510 to 1524
 
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