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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

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That's why 1251 area is a pivot. To frustrate both the bull and bear traders.

Could stay range bound for all of april and I wouldn't be surprised
Pivot....remember this one for months straight?

Wonder if anyone is frustrated with 1251 yet, lmao
Purpose of the pivot



1251 is pivot between long term bull case and long term bear case. 1269 bottom of the box for bulls.
 
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Rip Van Winkle

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louky, I can't tell if you're a bull or a bear
 

Strawboss

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I have scaled out of the puts I bought prior to the start of the correction. I have begun to reclaim the calls I sold last week - mostly at a 30-40% discount. Timing turns can be VERY profitable. Not only do you get to make gains from the protective puts - but you sell some of your calls only to rebuy them much cheaper - which allows you to add to the overall number of calls...

I still have some dry powder in case this correction goes deeper. If it does - I win. If it turns...then I will deploy my remaining dry powder once we make a higher high.
I am on a roll with timing these turns...hopefully I can keep it up...now I have some dry powder to get back in play as Draghi just kick started QE to infinity...and beyond...

I want to see how the miners react this morning to this new reality...
 

Strawboss

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louky, I can't tell if you're a bull or a bear
Traders are neither bullish or bearish...

Sure - may have some longer term views/hypotheses regarding future price direction on a macro level based off of fundamentals...but the ebbs and flows are tradable from either direction...

Whats interesting to me is that the miners are actually trading the way they should...which is very different from the past few years...
 

savvydon

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I gotta say that the metals appeared pretty lethargic today in the face of the Trump ‘Fed bonehead’ zero interest comments. The bump was pretty small and short lived. Kinda has me thinking that we could dive down further here before this correction is over. Of course, I could just be suffering from ‘kicked too many times’ puppy syndrome. We c...
Power is back... new pole and everything!

OK gold, time for Friday rally!
You are welcome. Apparently it took me making a call in the other direction to achieve that.
 

louky

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Does a weekly close below $1530 validate the failed upside breakout attempt and put the pivot in play?
In theory 1539 should of held and below 1530 confirms a false breakout. Of course nothing is fool proof.

As far as charts, if you look at 1 hour there's a clear bear flag with breakdown target of 1505-10.

The historically significant number between bottom of the box 1539 and top of lower box 1494, is of course 1503 pivot. So that's where i'd look. Below it opens up deeper correction into september
Exactly what happened within pennies, i guess. Nothing but a memory exercise. Why people feel the need to have it labeled bullish or bearish, i'll never understand.

Gold resting and nothing significant happening isnt bearish or bullish
 

Rip Van Winkle

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You didn't read my post yesterday?
I'm talking about the medium/short term. I realize long term everyone here is bullish. I guess the pivots and boxes are harder to visualize than charts with with channels of probability.
 

louky

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I'm talking about the medium/short term. I realize long term everyone here is bullish. I guess the pivots and boxes are harder to visualize than charts with with channels of probability.
I posted beforehand at 1539 it was going to 1503 and exactly at 1485 spot, 1494 futures it was going to bounce. Then to watch 1521-39 after that. I guess it was bearish at 1539 and bullish at 1485/94, but again, there's nothing significant happening yet.
 

louky

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I'm talking about the medium/short term. I realize long term everyone here is bullish. I guess the pivots and boxes are harder to visualize than charts with with channels of probability.
Also, i screen capped and marked the wicks hitting exactly on the numbers i have posted for years and years in advance to help with visual of what to look for

The lines and charts dont matter, only the numbers. Example, people debated on 1498,96, 95, etc from various lines. None of it was needed, just memory.
 

louky

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two days ago 1150 am, note 5 minute chart

Double 18, probably not relevant



Last night after close

Double eighteen.....This is just for fun.... anyone care to guess my target if it holds?

Hint: it's between 18 and 19 :p


Monthly chart
View attachment 140807



18.81

NCN :D
Ifyou see wicks in 1818, spiking down, it's boolish
 
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louky

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Now watch your kitco tracker ping on 1+5+2+1, above that is boolish, 1539 next relevant number because it's bottom of the box.

Screenshot_20190912-091244_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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louky

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So my short terms are undeniable if you want to label boolish or bearish.....medium term, well i'd say no one knows for sure at this point. 1539 has to become support, that's all i know.. Otherwise, If 1539 fails again, it will be uglier than anyone expects. I laid out the lower low scenario for each person consider along with their own biases and coloring crayon charts.
 

Rip Van Winkle

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Goldhedge

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I look at a chart like this and think "RUN! for the hills...!" I don't own it.

June would have been a good time to buy it.

Looks like it's breaking down.

Screen Shot 2019-09-12 at 8.24.40 AM.png
 

louky

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Fib number of this leg looks kind of interesting or you can just memorize it....1539...and be more precise majority of the time

Also note the high please......on leg A....just a memory exercise if youve been paying attention to the numbers i've posted for 3 years now? 1+5+6+6=?
 

Rip Van Winkle

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Fib number of this leg looks kind of interesting or you can just memorize it....1539...and be more precise majority of the time

Looks like sell today at the latest, next week looks down to "D" leg
 

Rip Van Winkle

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I wonder if those numbers (posted years and years in advance in many cases) have hit enough times, with precision, for people who've followed the thread long enough to not concider it a coincidence any longer?
So how did you come across those numbers years ago before they hit a bunch of times?
 

Strawboss

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Lousy has me rethinking my next trade...whether to hedge or not...
 

Strawboss

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1568321244738.png
 

louky

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louky tuesday post: 1715506 said:
Wouldn't be surprised by 1539 before a lower. That's a watch out/red flag if it fails again
This was suppose to say lower low



Would watch 1521 - 1539 closely on this next bounce, need support on 1539 for higher targets, imo.

If that area fails, current box 1449-94 would be open for lower low
I'm happy no one here got taken by surprise today .....1531 futures high.....smack middle of our beware zone for the funny business to start ;)
 
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looks like another short term "triangle" on the gold chart, seems to be building higher lows but gold/silver stocks wants a breakdown. Right now it's like SpongeBob flipping hamburgers!
 

Strawboss

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I ended up picking up some DUST to hedge my options...

Was thinking about going all in bullish this morning - but, for whatever reason decided to wait a bit and see how the morning played out...

Once Draghi started talking and the market figured out the QE4EVA was a bit light...well - you know the rest...

For Europe - they are going to have to increase their targets or they will hit the wall where the ECB will run out of room to manuever in a few months. Pay attention for an announcement that they are increasing the amount of debt each country can carry...it will be a battle to get it approved as Germany, France (most of northern Europe) are opposed to it and all the southern countries in Europe are for it. Draghi threw a bone to them on the way out the door - leaving it up to Lagarde to handle the mess...

So - I am pretty much hedged for whatever happens next...figure I will wait to see if we break into that lower box or smash back up into the upper box...1494 and 1539...which way do we go???