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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

Zed

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Whatever the reasons, gary nailed that to the day pretty much

It was just a squeeze... but they are very disciplined in this market, the squeeze to $48 saw a very controlled exit, really. Whatever they are it is not dumb money, there is not enough dumb money in this market to lead it anywhere... that might come later. For now its pros on leverage with a thin market, not hard to get caught when the market takes a run. The question is will they be back in quantity to short again? Or was that a bit of a watershed moment?
 

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Zed

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Just for old times sake... a Jim Cook interview (I think they cut and pasted from 2005!)

Jim Cook, Investment Rarities interviews Ted Butler

Q: For a number of years, you have been insisting that silver would experience dramatic price gains. Any change in your thinking these days?

A: Not only has there been no change in my thinking, the case for a silver price explosion has never been stronger.

Q: In what way?

A: Well for starters, there is now more buying power in the world and less silver than ever. Every asset class has risen to all-time highs, while silver has gotten cheaper. The slightest switch from more expensive assets to dirt cheap silver will light a rocket under the price of silver.

Q: What else?

A: Interest rates. While we’ve yet to see negative interest rates in the U.S., they are a fact of life in Europe. Getting nothing on a deposit should spur people to buy asserts that are cheap and capable of rising in price.

Q: What about the possibility of more quantitative easing?

A: Yes, I think concerns about monetary policies have caused some big investors and institutions to acquire gold or silver lately.

Q: Like a hedge fund?

A: I don’t know who. I call one of them a “whale” because I believe they just bought 100 million ounces of silver.

Q: What about the biggest silver hoarder of all, JPMorgan?

A: Yes, they have recently become aggressive again and are the leader in taking delivery from the COMEX. They have around 850 million ounces of physical silver which is the equivalent of all the silver mined worldwide in one year. Between the ETFs and JPMorgan, they own most of the silver in the world.

Q: Is JPM the whole story in silver?

A: Yes, they are in complete control.

Q: Any chance they might use all that physical silver to hold down the price?

A: JPM holds enough physical silver to stave off any physical shortage for years, but the compelling question is why would they? They are already billions of dollars ahead on their physical gold and silver holdings after being in the red until this year. And they stand to make many tens of billions more by holding it and not supplying physical silver to the market.

Q: I wish more people could see the opportunity that JPMorgan sees in holding silver for the long term.

A: This business about JPMorgan buying up more physical silver (and gold) than ever seen in history is not known to most people. JPMorgan has been buying massive amounts of physical silver for eight years now. As the kingpin of the silver and gold markets, JPMorgan is now positioned to make an absolute fortune on higher prices. Your readers should do the same thing that JPMorgan is doing. They would also have a chance to make a fortune.

Q: The recent price rise in silver has been pretty dramatic. Do you see anything that could keep it rising in such an overheated fashion?

A: The biggest short sellers in COMEX gold and silver are now underwater as much as $4 billion and more likely than ever before to buy back short positions. If they panic and rush to cover, then prices will truly explode.

Q: Care to put a number on it?

A: No, you know I don't put specific numbers out because that involves a degree of precision that borders on hubris. But if the big shorts truly start to panic, silver could move dollars per day

Q: Any signs of a silver shortage?

A: Sure, everywhere you look, starting with the silver ETFs which are suddenly not getting timely physical deliveries when due. It comes down to whether JPMorgan will let go of some of its physical stockpile.

Q: These seven big shorts that are out so much money will certainly be trying to drive the price down so they can escape the pain, won’t they?

A: Of course, but if they are successful in getting out of those big losses I don’t see them ever going short again.

Q: What happens then?

A: The price of silver will skyrocket. It’s inevitable that thirty years of manipulation on the COMEX will end with a bang.
 

Zed

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savvydon

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Bob is calling that a major top in gold...

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty091319.html


IMO we look close to a break down but not quite yet, I just can't say that the current chart is what I would call a confirmed top. We look due for a rally... IMO that is what will make or break this as a top.

What do you think? Is Bob on the money this time?
Although his analysis sounded bearish on the surface it wasn’t really so much so. He suggested that metals might be ready for the next trip northward by December...

I’m not sure it will take so long. Volatility seems to be on the upswing. Silver’s recent move didn’t take long to happen and the recent retracement was like lightning striking. Don’t know if this morning’s spike up is just a news driven blip on the radar or the lead charge in the next leg up. Wonder how long it took the DSI to move from the doldrums to it’s recent peak?

Lots of moving parts. Too much for me to bet the farm on short term timing. I have been nibbling at options and shuffling stocks a bit, but mostly trying to just keep stacking and buy and hold. I’m always grateful to find good analysis and those bold enough to make calls based on it, but I’m typically going to stick my toe in the water and contemplate my navel for a bit before I jump in with both feet. Jmho and 2c...
 

Zed

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Rip Van Winkle

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18.18?
 

louky

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16 Sep - 02:33:51 PM [REUTERS] (LCOc1 CLc1) - U.S. CRUDE OIL FUTURES END SESSION UP 14.7%, LARGEST ONE-DAY PERCENTAGE GAIN SINCE DEC. 2008
 

Zed

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Scapegoats? Maybe this is just paving the way for this bull leg, kinda sends the signal that JPM no longer has your back. I dunno?!
 

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Strawboss

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I wonder how much was spent today keeping a lid on gold?

Oil getting a hard on. Trump/Pompeo blaming Iran. Saudi's blaming Iran. Houthi's threatening more attacks...

And gold just lackadaisically sitting there - like it smoked a bowl on a warm summer afternoon and decided to lay in the field and just gaze at the sky...

I would not have predicted this.

Its also interesting to me to see the miners actually positive - considering that gold is essentially flat. Fuel expenses are tremendous in the mining industry...

I guess it took all their money to keep the lid on gold and they didnt have enough left over to press the miners lower??

:don't know:
 

Zed

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Gold Daily - It looks like @ the least a relief rally is due. Where that ends will give us an idea about the scale of this so called major top. So far, and to me, it looks a little more like a consolidation. Nothing to really cry about YET. Lower high and a lower low and we can talk correction depth and duration. For now I am still on the fence...

BTW... too many gold heads are talking correction for my liking. It is a bull markets job to shake off riders, it will not let MOST people be right. This is the market mechanism at its core, this is what it does over time. JMO etc...

Know thyself and beware.

AUUSD-D-20190917.png
 

Zed

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Here is a daily of GDXJ - which I use as a proxy of the miners...

If this is a A-B-C type correction - we may have put in the A and are now in the B rally phase. C may be somewhere around 33 where there is a gap that needs filling. The gap below that could be reached on a capitulation...who knows...

Notice the RSI went below 40 - which suggests that we are now in a corrective phase. Once the RSI rises above 60 again - that will signal the bull phase is renewing...

Also of note - but not indicated on the chart is the fact that we had 4 down days in a row. According to Martin Armstrong - 4 in a row indicates a new trend and the counter trend will consist of usually 2 but no more than 3 before the trend reasserts itself...he says this is a valid observation/conclusion irrespective of timeframe. For example if you look at the monthly - we just completed the 4th monthly bullish candlestick in a row - which signals a bullish trend on the monthly...so we "could" have up to 3 months of corrective action - which would fit what the daily chart is showing...

I am still 75% in call options and 25% in cash as I anticipate (hope) we get a bit more of a rally here...

Scared to be in my position...and afraid to not be in it. As Zed said - exactly the right frame of mind to be aware of and to develop the discipline to suppress your fear - but not recklessly (hence the 25% cash position). Things with Saudi Arabia, Iran etc...are far more serious than todays gold price movements would suggest...of that I am certain...

Anyways - here is the chart...

1.png
 

Zed

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Zed

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Here is a daily of GDXJ - which I use as a proxy of the miners...

If this is a A-B-C type correction - we may have put in the A and are now in the B rally phase. C may be somewhere around 33 where there is a gap that needs filling. The gap below that could be reached on a capitulation...who knows...

Notice the RSI went below 40 - which suggests that we are now in a corrective phase. Once the RSI rises above 60 again - that will signal the bull phase is renewing...

Also of note - but not indicated on the chart is the fact that we had 4 down days in a row. According to Martin Armstrong - 4 in a row indicates a new trend and the counter trend will consist of usually 2 but no more than 3 before the trend reasserts itself...he says this is a valid observation/conclusion irrespective of timeframe. For example if you look at the monthly - we just completed the 4th monthly bullish candlestick in a row - which signals a bullish trend on the monthly...so we "could" have up to 3 months of corrective action - which would fit what the daily chart is showing...

I am still 75% in call options and 25% in cash as I anticipate (hope) we get a bit more of a rally here...

Scared to be in my position...and afraid to not be in it. As Zed said - exactly the right frame of mind to be aware of and to develop the discipline to suppress your fear - but not recklessly (hence the 25% cash position). Things with Saudi Arabia, Iran etc...are far more serious than todays gold price movements would suggest...of that I am certain...

Anyways - here is the chart...

View attachment 141148
36 jumps out at me as a solid looking floor. Break that and its looking worse. The gap @ the 200 DMA would be classic... I have to agree on that one. Below that and I'm thinking false start... agian.
 

Zed

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Savvy... you have read more Elliot Wave than most. Can the B of an ABC correction be a nominal new high? I seem to remember seeing a chart labeled that way and thought it odd.
 

louky

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I wonder how much was spent today keeping a lid on gold?

Oil getting a hard on. Trump/Pompeo blaming Iran. Saudi's blaming Iran. Houthi's threatening more attacks...

And gold just lackadaisically sitting there - like it smoked a bowl on a warm summer afternoon and decided to lay in the field and just gaze at the sky...

I would not have predicted this.
Just how it works. Purpose of the pivot, no prediction necessary, but i did post be ready for it all last week lol
 
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louky

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Above 1494, new marginal high still on the table 1588 fib.....1593 top of the box.....before lower

1493.90 bottom ofthat candle

20190916_202444.jpg
 
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savvydon

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Savvy... you have read more Elliot Wave than most. Can the B of an ABC correction be a nominal new high? I seem to remember seeing a chart labeled that way and thought it odd.
I pushed hard for a while with the Elliot wave thing but eventually backed off because it seems to be a bit like a mystery wrapped up in a riddle and placed in an enigma. Every time you pull the top off a box there is another smaller box sitting there...

So, in that vein, the information I have is less than clear cut. There are three laws:

Wave 4 can't enter into wave 1 territory

Wave 2 can't retrace more than 100% of wave 1

Wave 3 can't be the shortest wave by price compared with wave 1 and wave 5

If any of these three rules are broken the count is incorrect and has to be retooled.

As far as I know there are no immutable rules for ABC corrective waves, but there are lots of guidelines. On the other hand I did find the following info in an Elliot Wave article: 'One key rule for the simple zigzag corrective phase is that, in a bull market, Wave B ends noticeably lower than where Wave A starts'. This would seem to answer your question in the negative. However (devil in the details)...

Not all ABC corrections are zigzags. They also include Flats, Triangles, double and triple threes (the latter two are combos of two or more corrective patterns). Furthermore, Flats can be subdivided into regular, expanded, and running. (Told you this thing gets crazy...)

Anyway, in both an Expanded Flat and a Running Flat the B wave is expected to have an approximate 123.6% (fibonacci) retracement of wave A. In this case your question can be answered in the affirmative - The B wave of an ABC correction can be a new nominal high.

...sorry if all the waves made you a bit sea sick...:tongue:

Here is a good link for those wishing to dive in:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...wave-theory/&usg=AOvVaw37hPg0ezjR4raKJshs9y8K
 

Zed

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Strawboss

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I pushed hard for a while with the Elliot wave thing but eventually backed off because it seems to be a bit like a mystery wrapped up in a riddle and placed in an enigma. Every time you pull the top off a box there is another smaller box sitting there...

So, in that vein, the information I have is less than clear cut. There are three laws:

Wave 4 can't enter into wave 1 territory

Wave 2 can't retrace more than 100% of wave 1

Wave 3 can't be the shortest wave by price compared with wave 1 and wave 5

If any of these three rules are broken the count is incorrect and has to be retooled.

As far as I know there are no immutable rules for ABC corrective waves, but there are lots of guidelines. On the other hand I did find the following info in an Elliot Wave article: 'One key rule for the simple zigzag corrective phase is that, in a bull market, Wave B ends noticeably lower than where Wave A starts'. This would seem to answer your question in the negative. However (devil in the details)...

Not all ABC corrections are zigzags. They also include Flats, Triangles, double and triple threes (the latter two are combos of two or more corrective patterns). Furthermore, Flats can be subdivided into regular, expanded, and running. (Told you this thing gets crazy...)

Anyway, in both an Expanded Flat and a Running Flat the B wave is expected to have an approximate 123.6% (fibonacci) retracement of wave A. In this case your question can be answered in the affirmative - The B wave of an ABC correction can be a new nominal high.

...sorry if all the waves made you a bit sea sick...:tongue:

Here is a good link for those wishing to dive in:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=2ahUKEwj0uoze1dbkAhWcFTQIHYFQC-YQFjAEegQICRAB&url=https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/&usg=AOvVaw37hPg0ezjR4raKJshs9y8K
So - someone (that means you Zed)...figure out the 123% thingy - and that is best case scenario...
Also - figure out what 50% and 61.8% corrections of the A wave would be (I think that is more likely??) as the B wave and then lets assume at least a decline to the 200dma and filling of the upper gap.

The only way I see the lower gap getting filled is on a day of capitulation where all the stops below the 200dma are run and people panic sell their positions... I think that could result in a candlestick with a very long tail where it closes the lower gap and closes above the 200dma. That would be a crazy day...and extraordinarily bullish if that was to in fact happen...
 

Zed

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I pushed hard for a while with the Elliot wave thing but eventually backed off because it seems to be a bit like a mystery wrapped up in a riddle and placed in an enigma. Every time you pull the top off a box there is another smaller box sitting there...

So, in that vein, the information I have is less than clear cut. There are three laws:

Wave 4 can't enter into wave 1 territory

Wave 2 can't retrace more than 100% of wave 1

Wave 3 can't be the shortest wave by price compared with wave 1 and wave 5

If any of these three rules are broken the count is incorrect and has to be retooled.

As far as I know there are no immutable rules for ABC corrective waves, but there are lots of guidelines. On the other hand I did find the following info in an Elliot Wave article: 'One key rule for the simple zigzag corrective phase is that, in a bull market, Wave B ends noticeably lower than where Wave A starts'. This would seem to answer your question in the negative. However (devil in the details)...

Not all ABC corrections are zigzags. They also include Flats, Triangles, double and triple threes (the latter two are combos of two or more corrective patterns). Furthermore, Flats can be subdivided into regular, expanded, and running. (Told you this thing gets crazy...)

Anyway, in both an Expanded Flat and a Running Flat the B wave is expected to have an approximate 123.6% (fibonacci) retracement of wave A. In this case your question can be answered in the affirmative - The B wave of an ABC correction can be a new nominal high.

...sorry if all the waves made you a bit sea sick...:tongue:

Here is a good link for those wishing to dive in:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=2ahUKEwj0uoze1dbkAhWcFTQIHYFQC-YQFjAEegQICRAB&url=https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/&usg=AOvVaw37hPg0ezjR4raKJshs9y8K
It's VOODOO I tell ya!

 

Zed

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Anyway, in both an Expanded Flat and a Running Flat the B wave is expected to have an approximate 123.6% (fibonacci) retracement of wave A. In this case your question can be answered in the affirmative - The B wave of an ABC correction can be a new nominal high.
I think that is what I saw labelled on a chart back there... I dunno?

So is this so much BS or is this Elliot Wave kosher?

GDX-D-17092019-1.png
 

Zed

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Zed

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Gold Daily... Is this a possible wave count? Pin 5 where ever you need to see it. Pahhhhhhh.... voodoo! LOL

AUUSD-D-20190917-1.png
 

louky

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Got the last wiggle, 1494 to ~1530....now back at 1503 pivot

Wouldn't be surprised by 1539 before a lower. That's a watch out/red flag if it fails again

This was suppose to say lower low



Would watch 1521 - 1539 closely on this next bounce, need support on 1539 for higher targets, imo.

If that area fails, current box 1449-94 would be open for lower low and i wouldn't want to see a sustained move below 1476.