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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

louky

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Strawboss

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World Gold Council 4th Q 2019 results:

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2019

Highlights
Total fourth quarter demand fell 19% y-o-y to 1,045.2t. Two main contributors to the y-o-y drop were jewellery and physical bar demand, both of which reacted to the elevated gold price. In US dollar value terms, the decline in Q4 demand was much shallower – down just 3% to US$49.7bn.

Inflows into global gold-backed ETFs and similar products pushed total holdings to a record year-end total of 2885.5t. Holdings grew by 401.1t over the year, with 26.8t added in Q4. Inflows were heavily concentrated in Q3 as the US dollar gold price rallied to a six-year high.

Central banks were net buyers for a 10th consecutive year: global reserves grew by 650.3t (-1% y-o-y), the second highest annual total for 50 years. Purchasing in Q4 of 109.6t was 34% lower y-o-y, although this was partly a reflection of the sheer scale of buying in 2018.

China and India held sway over global consumer demand. Together, the two gold consuming giants accounted for 80% of the y-o-y decline in Q4 jewellery and retail investment demand. High gold prices and a softer economic environment were the main culprits.

Total annual gold supply edged up 2% to 4,776.1t. An 11% jump in recycling was the main reason for the increase, as consumers capitalised on the sharp rise in the gold price in the second half of the year. Annual mine production was marginally lower at 3,463.7t – the first annual decline for more than 10 years.

The gold price averaged US$1,481/oz in Q4. This was the highest average price since Q1 2013. Although the price remained below the Q3 high, it was well supported. And gold priced in various currencies – including euros, Indian rupees and Turkish lira – hit their highest levels in history.
So - jewelry and bars were down almost 33% YoY with 80% of that slack coming from China and India. Seems they are waiting for better prices. That is bullish in that it is stored demand that is building...meanwhile gold is consolidating at a high price...once those sidelined buyers get adjusted to the higher price - do they return to the market?

Spec long positions are still quite elevated on the COT...nosebleed territory based on historical standards. Adam Hamilton is pretty bearish in the short term as he thinks the specs have run out of gunpowder. I am not sure I agree. Yes its elevated...but so is the money supply. With not QE4 running and the repo operations continuing unabaded...and with the coronavirus shutting down global supply chains originating in China, and with shipping companies willing to PAY to ship a load across the ocean, and with China cancelling contracts on copper...

But the miners are wallowing not showing much enthusiasm...here is a P&F of GDXJ vs. gold. So far - its only showing a consolidation/correction within an uptrend....

1581352078098.png


I think we are at an inflection point in gold/miners...I see arguments for another leg up in the metals and also an argument for a correction. Not sure which will win over the next several weeks. The seasonal rally in gold usually fizzles by end of February and with China being on lockdown - their usual gold buying has been severely muted.

If this virus continues to spread - and if more countries start quarantining their citizens - I am not sure how things will play out. I would imagine that markets should fall - which is usually supportive of gold (but not always)...and then there is the possibility that if it spreads to where mining companies cease operations for a spell - well that would be calamitous to the miners...

I think there is a lot of thinking along these lines in the gold market - hence the uncertainty...

Definitely in uncharted waters...

I am reminded that Jesse Livermore said that the best decisions he made were the ones where he "sit tight and be right"...or something like that...
 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Corona Virus, a gift that keeps on giving? ... or does this blow over. Apparently immunity after surviving the virus may not last long, so this could revisit us next season! The pure joy of it all!
 

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1581372837402.png
 

Zed

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Zed

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Steady green of late in the Aussie miners, the odd flat or slightly red day but on the whole it is slow and solid price action.

2c

FWIW.
 

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Gold USD Daily --> Are we due for a pop?

AUAUD-D-20200211-1.png
 

savvydon

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Corona Virus, a gift that keeps on giving? ... or does this blow over. Apparently immunity after surviving the virus may not last long, so this could revisit us next season! The pure joy of it all!
I think we may be seeing nature's response to 7 billion strong and growing...
 

Zed

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I think we may be seeing nature's response to 7 billion strong and growing...
Yes, I guess we are overdue for something.

I'm still sus about where this one popped out of the wood work.
 

savvydon

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Steady green of late in the Aussie miners, the odd flat or slightly red day but on the whole it is slow and solid price action.

2c

FWIW.
Is it just me or is everyone in the PM universe starting to talk about silver? Just seems like lil sis is the lynchpin right now...
 

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Is it just me or is everyone in the PM universe starting to talk about silver? Just seems like lil sis is the lynchpin right now...
Silver has always been the lynchpin. If silver flies - gold will surely follow even though silver is a much smaller market.
 

savvydon

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Silver has always been the lynchpin. If silver flies - gold will surely follow even though silver is a much smaller market.
Gold has already started to do what it is supposed to do, but on the next nudge we are going to start approaching all time highs. when that happens we get media attention as well. Everybody pile on!
 

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Is it just me or is everyone in the PM universe starting to talk about silver? Just seems like lil sis is the lynchpin right now...
She is over due to wake up... late to the party but goes hard. So... it's logical, but is it going to be reality?
 

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She is over due to wake up... late to the party but goes hard. So... it's logical, but is it going to be reality?
Silver has a well developed history of outperforming gold at the end of runs...

Gold leads - but silver finishes...
 

Zed

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Been looking @ the repo market in an attempt to really come to grips with it, so far I have learned this.

1. No one is really sure about the whole situation, including the Fed.
2. The Fed is stuck. The repo market now NEEDS the cheap funds. The Fed NEEDS private money to replace it's funding IF it is to step out of the market. Private money isn't willing to step in at the current low rates. So the Fed is wed to the repo market at least until private money will take on the risk at these rate levels. NO EXIT for the foreseeable.
3. The Repo market has a relatively direct link to the mechanism that funds the leveraged players in the stock market. The hedgefunds know this and have not been slow to lever up and get long off the back of what are artificially low Fed funded rates. This ups repo demand and makes it harder for the Fed to exit.
4. The Fed exiting before private money comes back will impact the banks and the stock market... see #2.
5. They have a withdrawal slated but we can expect "management" of that event based on world events ---> Kung Flu's impact on the US through China. See #2.

So in a nutshell, this is going to be damn near impossible to exit without a BOOM. I've not heard a contrary argument that sounds plausible yet... still looking.

Shiny pet rocks are still looking good.
 

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savvydon

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Been looking @ the repo market in an attempt to really come to grips with it, so far I have learned this.

1. No one is really sure about the whole situation, including the Fed.
2. The Fed is stuck. The repo market now NEEDS the cheap funds. The Fed NEEDS private money to replace it's funding IF it is to step out of the market. Private money isn't willing to step in at the current low rates. So the Fed is wed to the repo market at least until private money will take on the risk at these rate levels. NO EXIT for the foreseeable.
3. The Repo market has a relatively direct link to the mechanism that funds the leveraged players in the stock market. The hedgefunds know this and have not been slow to lever up and get long off the back of what are artificially low Fed funded rates. This ups repo demand and makes it harder for the Fed to exit.
4. The Fed exiting before private money comes back will impact the banks and the stock market... see #2.
5. They have a withdrawal slated but we can expect "management" of that event based on world events ---> Kung Flu's impact on the US through China. See #2.

So in a nutshell, this is going to be damn near impossible to exit without a BOOM. I've not heard a contrary argument that sounds plausible yet... still looking.

Shiny pet rocks are still looking good.
I think that is pretty much it in a nutshell. My own gutter level understanding is that, if QE was blow for the financial system, then this repo thing is pure crack rock. Faster, more direct hit that lasts for less and less time before needing to be immediately replenished. Less than ideal for holistic, long term systemic financial health.
 

Strawboss

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Been looking @ the repo market in an attempt to really come to grips with it, so far I have learned this.

1. No one is really sure about the whole situation, including the Fed.
2. The Fed is stuck. The repo market now NEEDS the cheap funds. The Fed NEEDS private money to replace it's funding IF it is to step out of the market. Private money isn't willing to step in at the current low rates. So the Fed is wed to the repo market at least until private money will take on the risk at these rate levels. NO EXIT for the foreseeable.
3. The Repo market has a relatively direct link to the mechanism that funds the leveraged players in the stock market. The hedgefunds know this and have not been slow to lever up and get long off the back of what are artificially low Fed funded rates. This ups repo demand and makes it harder for the Fed to exit.
4. The Fed exiting before private money comes back will impact the banks and the stock market... see #2.
5. They have a withdrawal slated but we can expect "management" of that event based on world events ---> Kung Flu's impact on the US through China. See #2.

So in a nutshell, this is going to be damn near impossible to exit without a BOOM. I've not heard a contrary argument that sounds plausible yet... still looking.

Shiny pet rocks are still looking good.
Speaking of BOOMS...it is possible that they have armed this bomb so they can explode it in President Trumps face to prevent his reelection. All they would have to do is let the repos expire and not get involved in any new ones...

I dont know if its likely - but it is for sure possible...
 

Zed

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I think that is pretty much it in a nutshell. My own gutter level understanding is that, if QE was blow for the financial system, then this repo thing is pure crack rock. Faster, more direct hit that lasts for less and less time before needing to be immediately replenished. Less than ideal for holistic, long term systemic financial health.
The key concept that I now have to get my head around is that because of the Fed's actions the Treasury is now the marginal supplier of liquidity in the system and the Treasury General Account is where you will see expansion or contraction first. Also that the Treasuries goals are not the Feds goals aka the politics don't align. If true then Trump via the treasury has the Fed in a corner. Given Trumps position we can probably expect a stock market mania into the election. My received wisdom is also that the Fed doesn't' care about asset prices, only about rates.

Chaps... this could get very silly up until November if this is indeed the case.

We need Treasury General Account numbers.

Please post any resources found...
 

Zed

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Speaking of BOOMS...it is possible that they have armed this bomb so they can explode it in President Trumps face to prevent his reelection. All they would have to do is let the repos expire and not get involved in any new ones...

I dont know if its likely - but it is for sure possible...
... but he could hang it on the Fed, he has already started that process.
 

Zed

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Goldhedge

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Speaking of BOOMS...it is possible that they have armed this bomb so they can explode it in President Trumps face to prevent his reelection. All they would have to do is let the repos expire and not get involved in any new ones...

I dont know if its likely - but it is for sure possible...
If they (Deep State) released the Kraken that would be the reason.
Trump also implied that it's under control. Maybe they already have the antidote?

... but he could hang it on the Fed, he has already started that process.
That's what it looks like to me. X22 Report has pointed that out repeatedly.
 

Goldhedge

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Been following this for years... Looks as if the new debt issue is taking hold... $0.38 next stop...


Screen Shot 2020-02-11 at 12.44.23 PM.png
 

Goldhedge

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Zed

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Greg & David and that cheap ass tart Silver.

 

Zed

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Zed

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We have that hot, still, muggy, heavy atmospheric condition that you have before a storm breaks in the sub-tropics. Something is on it's way...