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Charts from the Lunatic Fringe.

silverwood

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As we exit 2016 $Silver still in a bear market.
The follow chart is silver going back to January 1981 to date. What is of interest is that silver is in a bear market when it is trading below the 50 month moving average. You can see silver made a test of the 50 month(ma) but has been repelled. It current stands at 19.20 and is falling. It sure looks like we can trade above that ma sometime in 2017. I going to make my 2017 prediction here...Silver will resume it's bull market in 2017!!! Happy New Year and Hi HO silver!!!

***note; you must copy and paste the below link after clicking stockcharts link***

http://stockcharts.com

/c-sc/sc?chart=$silver,uu[e,a]mhclyiay[dm][pb50!d20,2!f][ve5!c20][iut!LE5,10,15][j20444984,y]&r=355[/chart]
 

Zed

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Just so that I can end the 2016 posting year on a positive note! Gold AUD found support where it needed to. Granted the internals are not looking great so Jan may be a bit of a dip and a fit but if we hold these levels by the end of Jan in AUD all is good, at least for me! ... and yeah there is precedent for parabolic sar reversing after one dot (trend change), Aug 2008 as it happens, and yeah I have been drinking... its near that time down here so...

HAPPY FUGGIN (Australian colloquialism) NEW FUGGIN YEAR!!!


AU-M-20161231.png
 

silverwood

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Thanks for your help Zed. Looking at the chart I posted above, I had this thought...the 1980 peak in silver was followed by a bear market that lasted until the final low of $3.51 in 1991. A new bull started here, Wave 1 ended at $7.40 in 1998( the Warren Buffet peak). Then corrective wave 2 ended at $4.01 in late 2001. Then wave 3 ended at $49.82 in April of 2011. Then corrective wave 4 ended at $13.62 in December 2015. We are now in wave 5. I know there are measuring tools with Elliot wave to guestimate where wave 5 will go to but if it is about equal to wave 3 then we could see silver at $130 to $150.
 

Zed

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5th wave is often NUTZ, this is silver so expect extra NUTZ and NO WARNING SIGNS.

.... she is, after all, a crack whore with and attitude and an uzi.

hot girl with gun widescreen full hd wallpaper.jpg


yeah, yeah, I know the gun is Japanese... but you get the idea.
 

savvydon

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Happy New Year, Z. Thanks for the memories, er, charts and giggles. We are right behind you going into 2017. Cheers!
 

JayDubya

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A quote from that article says: "This is a grim appraisal by a Nobel prize-winning economist..."

As if being a Nobel prize winner means something.

Keep in mind Obama won a Nobel prize as well, so obviously that bar isn't very high. Certainly, it's no longer the measuring stick it used to be.
 

Zed

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9578 gold contracts delivered this December, down from 14528 in Aug and 15785 in June, even Oct topped December. Huge year for delivery and the first one I can remember that any month beat December let alone 3 months beating December. Every single month save Jan and March beat last December!!!!! That is a major break with traditional patterns... WHY?
 

smooth

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Zed, what do you think of the Fed's threat to increase rates through 2017 and beyond? Understand its a bit of an open question. But seems they are on the anti Trump train and possibly would welcome an ill economic effect.
 

Zed

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Zed, what do you think of the Fed's threat to increase rates through 2017 and beyond? Understand its a bit of an open question. But seems they are on the anti Trump train and possibly would welcome an ill economic effect.
Well... IMO

Higher rates equals lower bond prices. Money will flow from bonds.

Given the state of the stock market I would expect that opportunity is running out there, typically higher rates indicate a stronger economy and better earnings prospects and typically we'd be trading at a low earnings multiple. Instead we have a stock market that is running @ high multiples and running on cheap borrowings. Not to mention the effect on margin borrowing to buy stock. Hard to see it going crazy here, maybe it will run a while with Trumps profit repatriation tax break but it would seem to have a limit, maybe summer. After that I would be expecting net outflows from the stock market and lower prices.

Really that leaves tangibles in the box seat from say second half this year. I'd have to say I am in the commodities camp & gold has to be @ the top of the pile, monetary commodities first. This won't be a boom driven market as before, I think this is the last phase of the inflation that has already occurred, I think this is probably where the money leaves financial assets and looks for a 'real' home. This is where velocity increases and prices with it... and for all the wrong reasons. Stagflation... it has to come soon and its looking closer. The Fed moving rates higher is partially due to the market, in the end the Fed can nudge but not completely control the market, and partially due to a desire to head off the increase in velocity they will be anticipating. I think they will fail here, it is going to happen anyway... IMO the only way to kill the inflation is to go full Volcker on it and I don't think that anyone has the stomach for that just yet, not with this back drop... political suicide.

The question is when does the stock market turn and how 'disconnected' can it get before it matters. I'd guess it will give us a bit of a head wind until May, the charts kinda look like that as well. I guess that will be spun as bad for gold.... despite the fact that deliveries have been through the roof. IMO some large entities are anticipating this and want to hold physical, albeit in the Comex system. Keep an eye on deliveries, could be we see 6 more months of heavy activity before price really ticks up. We are a bit over done on the downside here... so a choppy 5/6 months is likely, early rally then chop into summer.

Trump will run head long into this crap, they will blame him, he has to wash his hands of it BUT I think he has to be convincing in his actions, people need to believe that as bad as it gets it will be better under Trump that it would have been. If he gets BOLD with the nations debt and radically restructures it somehow (that is his thing!) he may be looking famous by the end of the first term.... but yeah the Dems will be beating him around the ears remorselessly as this goes south. Mostly their fault of late but the GOP played its part... he really has to divorce himself of that history and if anyone can he can. JMO

So... watch the stock market and the velocity numbers for a turn. We must be so close!!! but I have thought similar before.
 
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andial

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Zed, what do you think of the Fed's threat to increase rates through 2017 and beyond? Understand its a bit of an open question. But seems they are on the anti Trump train and possibly would welcome an ill economic effect.
Smooth i had the same answer as Zed but he beat me to the post no lie it was just as good.
 

louky

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I'm trading platinum, i wouldn't go long on it with physical until it makes a lower low. Gold and silver made "forever", last chance bottoms last December 2015. Platinium most likely won't do that for another year or so
 
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louky

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So there's my answer for southfork. Silver now.

Gold and platinum are most likely to give another chance
 

louky

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Gold $200 +/- range bound for 2017. Call it 1098-1298 with 1098 coming later in the year, not now like a lot of people expect

Hope to be wrong on the upper range of course.
 
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smooth

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I'm trading platinum, i wouldn't go long on it with physical until it makes a lower low. Gold and silver made "forever", last chance bottoms last December 2015. Platinium most likely won't do that for another year or so
Hate to say it but I think its very possible for gold to see another low, possibly sub $1000. JMHO
 

savvydon

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Hate to say it but I think its very possible for gold to see another low, possibly sub $1000. JMHO
That is the threshold for which I will be willing to take some gold out of a PM IRA I set up a few years ago. I liked the idea of buying gold with pre tax money at the time but now I am unhappy with it being on Uncle Sam's radar. If it drops that far I will start taking it out of the IRA. Even with a 10% penalty it will still be a bargain.