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Crypto is Crashing HARD - opportunity.....

ds_mustang

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I agree.

But I also believe btc is significantly more decentralized than ETH. How many ETH will ever exist? Sometimes simplicity can be better. Can you use btc or some type of btc place holder on eth smart contracts?

I see BTC, ETH, physical bullion, government currency, and stocks and options, all as tools.

And if someone wants to live like the Amish because they are scared of the internet going down due to the sun farting then they will get left behind even if the sun does eventually fart.
How many BTC will ever exist? 21 million? How do you know? Bitcoin can be changed, we've seen it before with blocksize being capped and segwit, etc. We've already seen a contentious fork of BTC because a change to be made couldn't be agreed on, and those in charge of the code base got to decide what was "Bitcoin" and what became the forked bitcoin. So any change in the future can go the same way, including changing the number of coins--it's just politics. In the end there's nothing *hard* that prevents any change.

I'm not saying the number of coins will change, only that it might (or that anything else might change if those in charge decide to). Bitcoin likes to think it's different from ETH, but it's not. It also had a bug and was forced to do a blockchain rollback like ETH had. It also has politics and those in charge deciding the direction just like ETH. So the best you can do is pick a project doing something you believe in that has a solid team that is engaged, making good decisions for the project, has a lot of momentum, etc.

In the case of bitcoin, after the blocksize fork and the rejection of smart contracts I lost a lot of faith in the project. I don't see that it is leading in the crypto space, it is doing nothing in the hopes of being the premier crypto "store of value."

But has bitcoin succeeded at its only real use case as a "store of value?" I don't think it has. During this latest drop in crypto, was bitcoin the safest crypto? No, it fell around -73% and BNB, the #3 coin (ignoring stables) only fell 70%. Isn't that shocking if you think bitcoin is the safe coin? Bitcoin did fall less than ETH, but not by much. And the risk adjusted return (Sharpe ratio) of ETH and BTC is the same over the last year. So you're getting the same or worse volatility in a "store of value" token that you're getting in tokens actually doing a lot of risky things in order provide new features and services into crypto. And bitcoin isn't even returning as much in performance as they are. WHAT'S GOING ON? Isn't that a failure of bitcoin and its main purpose? Why hold a store of value token that isn't a store of value and isn't giving you better safety or risk-adjusted return?

IMO Ethereum is leading the crypto space, going new places and doing new things. It has more developers, makes way more cashflow, and everything exciting is happening there. Nobody has tried to copy bitcoin in years, the new coins are all trying to be the next ETH-killer. So IMO I don't see bitcoin as particularly relevant, and I worry its price might one day reflect that (it's a worry because I still hold BTC).
 
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Mujahideen

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I'm not saying the number of coins will change, only that it might

I agree. But I don’t think it will change to the extent that ETH will and I see that as a good thing. I also see ETHs flexibility as a good thing potentially. I think they both complement each other. Sort of like gold and silver.

I would cherry-pick and measure things on a 200 day moving average.
 

ds_mustang

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I agree. But I don’t think it will change to the extent that ETH will and I see that as a good thing. I also see ETHs flexibility as a good thing potentially. I think they both complement each other. Sort of like gold and silver.

I would cherry-pick and measure things on a 200 day moving average.
Yes, bitcoin changes less. Some people think that's a good thing I guess, though in a new tech area I don't agree with them. Bitcoin is also clearly failing as a store of value even though it's not changing as much--so what's the point of bitcoin not changing?

I think what happened during this drop is smart contract crypto have enabled stablecoins, so people moved to stables for store of value, not to bitcoin. And I expect smart contract crypto to continue innovating changes that bitcoin doesn't keep up with until it's clear bitcoin is no longer relevant. That's what happens to tech that stands still.
 

Mujahideen

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so people moved to stables for store of value

The stable coins are just dollar proxies? I think that would appeal to a slightly different audience than btc holders who are in it for more than just speculating.

I think to paint the picture with the current macroeconomic situation as the current chapter isn’t telling the whole story. At some point crypto will recover and mature and will be in a very different state. For example if we see a btc ETF that would help get rid of the shenanigans going on at exchanges, and so would better regulation for exchanges. A part of why btc crashed was due to over leveraged positions, some over leveraged positions weren’t even on btc but the exchanges had btc as collateral.
 
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ds_mustang

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The stable coins are just dollar proxies? I think that would appeal to a slightly different audience than btc holders who are in it for more than just speculating.

I think to paint the picture with the current macroeconomic situation as the current chapter isn’t telling the whole story. At some point crypto will recover and mature and will be in a very different state. For example if we see a btc ETF that would help get rid of the shenanigans going on at exchanges, and so would better regulation for exchanges. A part of why btc crashed was due to over leveraged positions, some over leveraged positions weren’t even on btc but the exchanges had btc as collateral.
Somehow I think a bitcoin ETF will cause more issues. They are centralized, might be based on futures and not actual BTC, or could be accused of manipulation like the gold ETF. If you want increasing bitcoin usage, people should actually buy and use more bitcoin. The same goes for gold or anything else.
 

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I think ETH is doing some great things, but they have some things that worry me.

Why do you need 32 ETH to stake? That creates a situation where something like Lido ends up pooling a very large amount of peoples ETH and that just doesn’t seem like it’s healthy for decentralization.

But I guess you might not be able to achieve that many developers working on it otherwise?
 

ds_mustang

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I think ETH is doing some great things, but they have some things that worry me.

Why do you need 32 ETH to stake? That creates a situation where something like Lido ends up pooling a very large amount of peoples ETH and that just doesn’t seem like it’s healthy for decentralization.
The major problem ETH has caused was the staking lockup and merge delays. Because nobody can withdraw staked ETH, and the merge to release the lockup keeps getting delayed, it has caused businesses to create an stETH token which can circulate for staked ETH that can't be withdrawn. And now that stETH is is the center of a bunch of controversy because some company screwed up and lost a ton of it. That's been behind the failure of Celsius and some other problems as well.
 

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All of it is a joke. People are just looking for the bigger fool to pass off their imaginary money to.

 

Lancers32

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By strict definition crypto is not a Ponzi scheme. Greater fool theory might apply. Same could be said for stocks really.
 

Mujahideen

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All of it is a joke.

I agree completely with the video.

So I won’t ignore the part where the question was asked: what economic purpose does it have.

There are thousands of crypto, maybe only a small handful serve a real and significant purpose. Anyone who really cares about crypto should want a bunch of pain to come and wipe away the bull shit sort of like the story of Noah’s ark.

The dollar itself is so funny that it might not even be possible.
 

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1655863382880.png
 

Juristic Person

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Yes, bitcoin changes less. Some people think that's a good thing I guess, though in a new tech area I don't agree with them. Bitcoin is also clearly failing as a store of value even though it's not changing as much--so what's the point of bitcoin not changing?

I think what happened during this drop is smart contract crypto have enabled stablecoins, so people moved to stables for store of value, not to bitcoin. And I expect smart contract crypto to continue innovating changes that bitcoin doesn't keep up with until it's clear bitcoin is no longer relevant. That's what happens to tech that stands still.
Interesting perspective. I haven't thought of it that way but I can't argue against your point. What you are saying is valid. Something to think about..
 

Mujahideen

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I think what happened during this drop is smart contract crypto have enabled stablecoins, so people moved to stables for store of value, not to bitcoin. And I expect smart contract crypto to continue innovating changes that bitcoin doesn't keep up with until it's clear bitcoin is no longer relevant. That's what happens to tech that stands still.


Just checked the charts: Looks like ETH was hit harder than BTC was?

ETH
67A44448-A6C0-441D-A546-ECF3AEBDF6E1.jpeg







BTC
18AA7165-383C-4FD8-9B02-50ADF8BAF234.jpeg



Maybe ETH gained on market cap over BTC??
 
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D-FENZ

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Just looking at the big picture of crypto, its wild price swings, stable coins, forks, segwit forks and the dizzying array of knockoffs and associated scams, it all screams hustle and in no way any sort of specie. And all of the energy used to produce this vapor. And it's way too complicated. And...
I just want to buy a bag of fuckin' potato chips.
 

Mujahideen

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As far as energy, it only makes sense to mine where energy is cheap. People won’t be mining where there is a high demand for energy because it would be already expensive.
 

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As far as energy, it only makes sense to mine where energy is cheap. People won’t be mining where there is a high demand for energy because it would be already expensive.
One thing is certain. Blockchain technology is the future of the banking industry. It's not going away. Digital currency, in one form or another, will be widely adopted around the globe. When this occurs, crypto software will be needed to process and validate transactions. ISO20022 protocol has already identified which cryptocurrencies (software) have a favored position. I think these tokens are safe bets. I don't imagine BTC and ETH will go away either. I think once the dollar is gone, BTC could become the new store and measure of value (ie - that home is priced at 2.25 BTC). The ETH platform will be operational for the other software applications.
 

the_shootist

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Just looking at the big picture of crypto, its wild price swings, stable coins, forks, segwit forks and the dizzying array of knockoffs and associated scams, it all screams hustle and in no way any sort of specie. And all of the energy used to produce this vapor. And it's way too complicated. And...
I just want to buy a bag of fuckin' potato chips.
I'm fairly happy I have no dog in this fight. I have enough to worry about these days.

While I could have made a killing in crypto had I taken the opportunity when it was available, the same thing occurred for me when MSFT, APPLE and IBM was cheap to get into.

I've made peace with those lost opportunities and I've made peace with this one (crypto) too
 

Lancers32

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I know there is a list of a few others. Do you see the ISO cryptos going up by a lot? XRP is around what 32 cents was as high as 1.50. I take what I see on YT with a grain of salt some of these guys see many hundreds of % gain in these ISO cryptos.
 

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One thing is certain. Blockchain technology is the future of the banking industry. It's not going away. Digital currency, in one form or another, will be widely adopted around the globe. When this occurs, crypto software will be needed to process and validate transactions. ISO20022 protocol has already identified which cryptocurrencies (software) have a favored position. I think these tokens are safe bets. I don't imagine BTC and ETH will go away either. I think once the dollar is gone, BTC could become the new store and measure of value (ie - that home is priced at 2.25 BTC). The ETH platform will be operational for the other software applications.
Yeah,,,, ok.....lol.

.gov crypto will be the only choice.
 

Juristic Person

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I know there is a list of a few others. Do you see the ISO cryptos going up by a lot? XRP is around what 32 cents was as high as 1.50. I take what I see on YT with a grain of salt some of these guys see many hundreds of % gain in these ISO cryptos.
I think a lot of factors go into the price. Adoption rate, burn rate, utilization rate, etc. But long story short - YES - the price will go up...especially as the majority of other cryptos collapse (limiting investment options) and utilization and global adoption increases. We are in the very early stages right now.
 

Juristic Person

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Yeah,,,, ok.....lol.

.gov crypto will be the only choice.
Even so, the .gov currencies will need software applications for specific use cases - for example - bank to bank transfers. These other "crypto" applications will process those transactions, thus have relevancy.

I think you need to do a little research into this. You are "lol"ing something you seem to not fully understand.
 

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Just looking at the big picture of crypto, its wild price swings, stable coins, forks, segwit forks and the dizzying array of knockoffs and associated scams, it all screams hustle and in no way any sort of specie. And all of the energy used to produce this vapor. And it's way too complicated. And...
I just want to buy a bag of fuckin' potato chips.
It's supposed to be complicated.

To keep the fanboiz from realizing they're just trading...numbers. Zero inherent value.

All the complexity makes some people think they're buying into something complex, and sophisticated, and kewel.

IMHO it's as value-laden as Beanie Babies.
 

ds_mustang

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Just checked the charts: Looks like ETH was hit harder than BTC was?

ETH
View attachment 264866






BTC
View attachment 264867


Maybe ETH gained on market cap over BTC??
Yes, ETH fell harder than BTC, however the #3 crypto BNB (ignoring stablecoins) has held up better than BTC which is crazy. Also the difference in loss between BTC and ETH isn't that big considering BTC hasn't made any changes in order to be a "store of value" while ETH is constantly upgrading. If your store of value coin is more volatile than BNB (which is another smart contract chain) and nearly as volatile as ETH, maybe it's not a store of value? And if bitcoin isn't a store of value, hasn't it essentially failed at its primary purpose? Ethereum makes no claim about value storage, it claims to be a smart contract platform and that's what it does.
 

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newmisty

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Mujahideen

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Please explain how that is.

And if bitcoin isn't a store of value, hasn't it essentially failed at its primary purpose?


AECE6383-96E4-41E6-8C76-51E37144C49F.png



The 200 SMA is trending upwards. I wouldn’t say that btc has failed considering the story isn’t over, but that all depends on what lens you choose to look at it from. And a lot of analysts project btc to rise in the long term. And mind you, this is only vs the dollar, a lot of other currencies are in an even worse position than the USD.

And the dollar is bound to lose money long term, that’s what’s it’s been doing for over 100 years; It’s tied to corrupt politicians who constantly debase the currency to pay their cronies. Btc is only 14 or so years old but I would say it’s winning that argument so far even with this crash.

I say btc is more real because it’s not as arbitrarily created as the dollar and it holds more value on the long term, IMO. btc is also open source… we can’t even really audit the fed.
 

Mujahideen

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loss between BTC and ETH isn't that big considering BTC hasn't made any changes in order to be a "store of value" while ETH is constantly upgrading.

I think something can be mediocre at a lot of things, or really great at a few things.

The utter simplicity of btc it’s what makes it great. Btc is also more decentralized than ETH, I believe it to be more decentralized because it’s more simple.

ETH might be more useful, won’t argue against that, but I can explain BTC a lot better.
 

the_shootist

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Could this mean that it's hitting the same place on its way down than it did on its way up? I'm not expect but this chart wouldn't give me any warm and fuzzies if I was heavily invested in crypto. Looks to me like a dead cat bounce then a return to a crash!

1655935298209.png
 

Mujahideen

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Even if it went to 8k, it would still be trending up it looks like. I’d worry if it broke down below that for a long time. I think a lot of people would buy at those levels.

What we do know is they won’t be arbitrarily creating more btc, but they will be arbitrarily creating dollars. Unless something better comes along in the crypto sphere it should rise in the long term, IMO.
 

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Btc is only 14 or so years old

it holds more value on the long term
Thank you for the explanation.

Quoted what appears to be an oxymoron
 

Juristic Person

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View attachment 264910


The 200 SMA is trending upwards. I wouldn’t say that btc has failed considering the story isn’t over, but that all depends on what lens you choose to look at it from. And a lot of analysts project btc to rise in the long term. And mind you, this is only vs the dollar, a lot of other currencies are in an even worse position than the USD.

And the dollar is bound to lose money long term, that’s what’s it’s been doing for over 100 years; It’s tied to corrupt politicians who constantly debase the currency to pay their cronies. Btc is only 14 or so years old but I would say it’s winning that argument so far even with this crash.

I say btc is more real because it’s not as arbitrarily created as the dollar and it holds more value on the long term, IMO. btc is also open source… we can’t even really audit the fed.
Hmmm....it appears that every time the current price touches the 200 DMA the price goes up.
 

Mujahideen

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Thank you for the explanation.

Quoted what appears to be an oxymoron

14 years of btc, trending up.

608DD90F-B215-49C4-A418-BA6058CAADA5.jpeg


100 years of the FRN, trending down… and it’s owners are trying to enslave us.

I’m someone who has an emergency fund and operating fund and spends the rest of my money because I already know this.

I’ll take a chance on btc being worth more in 10 years than the paper frn in my pocket.
 
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Voodoo

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If you really want to sell me on Crypto then USE it. Tell me which one and what you are doing to USE it. Which ones are you using instead of a bank account and which ones you are using everyday like you might a debit card.
 

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If you really want to sell me on Crypto then USE it. Tell me which one and what you are doing to USE it. Which ones are you using instead of a bank account and which ones you are using everyday like you might a debit card.

I “invest” in miners, Riot Blockchain specifically, I have thousands of shares. I milk it for option premium, but I plan on holding it on the way up.

I have no use for holding what I see as currency. But hypothetically if I had to add currency to my assets I would add BTC or ETH before I would add more frns.
 

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Even if it went to 8k, it would still be trending up it looks like. I’d worry if it broke down below that for a long time. I think a lot of people would buy at those levels.

What we do know is they won’t be arbitrarily creating more btc, but they will be arbitrarily creating dollars. Unless something better comes along in the crypto sphere it should rise in the long term, IMO.
I think Bitcoin would have to catch support and hold well before 8K or it is a pet rock.
 

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If you really want to sell me on Crypto then USE it. Tell me which one and what you are doing to USE it. Which ones are you using instead of a bank account and which ones you are using everyday like you might a debit card.
You already can.