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Earth Changes - Welcome Solar Cycle 25

Alton

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#1
Professor Nils-Axel Mörner: 'The approaching grand solar minimum and little ice age conditions'



Cap Allon
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Sun, 06 Sep 2020 00:00 UTC






© unknown
Nils-Axel Mörner is the former head of the paleogeophysics and geodynamics department at Stockholm University. He retired in 2005 and since has dedicated his days to disproving the IPPC's thermageddon nonsense while also warning of a coming Grand Solar Minimum.

Between 1997-2003, Mörner chaired an INTAS project on Geomagnetism & Climate; the project concluded that we, in the middle of the 21st century, had to be back in a new solar minimum with Little Ice Age climatic conditions.

These conclusions were quite straightforward, writes Mörner, and were included in a Special Issue of PRP: Obviously we are on our way into a new grand solar minimum. This sheds serious doubts on the issue of a continued, even accelerated, warming as proposed by the IPCC project. This quite innocent — and very true — conclusion made the publisher take the quite remarkable step to close down the entire scientific journal. This closing down gave rise to turbulence and objections within the scientific community. But it didn't stop Mörner. He kept publishing scientific works regarding the impending GSM.

In 2015, Mörner's "The Approaching New Grand Solar Minimum and Little Ice Age Climate Conditions" was published. It suggests that by 2030-2040 the Sun will experience a new grand solar minimum. This is evident from multiple studies of quite different characteristics, writes Mörner:
"the phasing of sunspot cycles, the cyclic observations of North Atlantic behavior over the past millennium, the cyclic pattern of cosmogenic radionuclides in natural terrestrial archives, the motions of the Sun with respect to the center of mass, the planetary spin-orbit coupling, the planetary conjunction history, and the general planetary-solar-terrestrial interaction."​
During the previous grand solar minima — i.e. the Spörer Mini-mum (ca 1440-1460), the Maunder Minimum (ca 1687-1703) and the Dalton Minimum (ca 1809- 1821) — the climatic conditions deteriorated into Little Ice Age periods.

© Unknown

© Unknown
Salvador presented a mathematical model of the sunspot cycles based on Wilson's tidal-torque model, above. Salvador's model had an 85% correlation with the sunspot numbers observed for 1749-2013, and made "a reasonable representation of the sunspot cycles for the past 1000 yr". Therefore, it justified an extrapolation for the next century, as shown below:

© Unknown
The prediction gives an extended low up to 2160 with the lowest values reached within the period 2028-2042; i.e. just where we expect the New Grand Solar Minimum to occur.

In 2015, Salvador extended his analysis over the last 4000 years, comparing his model with the observed 10Be variations, as illustrated below:

© Unknown
The phasing of the solar cycles gives a clear message for the middle of the century: there will be a New Grand Solar Minimum. This is also the case when we consider the cyclic relations between Earth's rotation, ocean circulation, and Arctic climate. During the last three grand solar minima — the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima — global climate experienced Little Ice Age conditions. Arctic water penetrated to the south all the way down to Mid Portugal, and Europe experienced severe climatic conditions. The Arctic ice cover expanded significantly.

© Unknown


© Unknown
We now seem to be in possession of quite convergent data indicating that we, by 2030-2040, will be in a New Grand Solar Minimum which, by analogy to past minima, must be assumed will lead to a significant climatic deterioration with ice expansion in the Arctic. The mathematical model by Salvador seems to provide an excellent tool for the prediction of future sunspot variations.

All this precludes a continual warming as claimed by the IPCC. Instead of this, concludes Mörner, we are likely to face a new Little Ice Age.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with historically low solar activity, cloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow; and both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we're entering a 'full-blown' Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as "the weakest of the past 200 years", with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.


Prepare for the COLDlearn the facts, relocate if need be, and grow your own.
 

Alton

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#2
NASA announces Solar cycle 25 has begun, will be weakest since records began in 1755




SpaceWeather.com
Wed, 16 Sep 2020 10:08 UTC







Solar Cycle 25
Solar Cycle 25 is officially underway. NASA and NOAA made the announcement during a media teleconference yesterday, Sept. 15th. According to an international panel of experts, the sunspot number hit rock bottom in Dec. 2019, bringing an end to old Solar Cycle 24. Since then, sunspot counts have been slowly increasing, heralding new Solar Cycle 25.

"How quickly solar activity rises is an indicator on how strong the next solar cycle will be," says Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. "Although we've seen a steady increase in sunspot activity this year, it is slow."

The panel believes that new Solar Cycle 25 will be a weak one, peaking in 2025 at levels similar to old Solar Cycle 24. If their prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 25 (like Solar Cycle 24 before it) will be one of the weakest since record-keeping began in 1755.

"While we are not predicting a particularly active Solar Cycle 25, violent eruptions from the sun can occur at any time," warns Biesecker. Indeed, even Solar Minimum can produce a superstorm, so Solar Cycle 25 should not be taken lightly despite the panel's low expectations. Radio blackouts, power outages and severe geomagnetic storms are possible in the years ahead.


Comment: And it was recently discovered that extreme solar storms occur much more often than previously thought and, were one to occur at this time, as Earth's magnetic field is weakening, the effects could be devastating: A warning from history: The Carrington event was not unique




Above: Solar Cycle 25 auroras photographed on Sept. 14, 2020, by Jani Ylinampa in Finland.
For now, solar activity should remain generally low. Sunspot counts still have a long way to go before they reach levels typical of Solar Maximum. For the rest of 2020, periods of quiet will be occasionally interrupted by minor solar storms, with only a slight chance of big events.

On the bright side, the first Northern Lights of Solar Cycle 25 are dancing around the Arctic Circle right now, and the coming season for aurora watching promises to be the best in years.

Auroras love equinoxes

Northern autumn begins in less than a week. That's good news for Arctic sky watchers, because auroras love equinoxes. At this time of year, cracks form in Earth's magnetic field--a phenomenon known as the "Russell-McPherron effect." Solar wind pours through the gaps to fuel bright Northern Lights. Happy autumn! Aurora alerts: SMS Text.


Comment: The above announcement supports the work of Professor Valentina Zharkova, who declared that, back in June, we entered a Grand Solar Minimum which is causing an overall decrease in temperature on our planet.
 

gnome

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#3
Global temperatures diverged from solar irradiance before silver coinage was discontinued.

267_Solar_Irradiance_graph_2020_spanish-01.png
 

gnome

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#4
It's staring you in the face, but you will ignore it because it doesn't fit your preconceptions.
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Alton

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#5
August 2020 Earth Changes video:

 

Alton

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It's staring you in the face, but you will ignore it because it doesn't fit your preconceptions.
View attachment 180673
Keep trying gnome. Maybe someday someone might believe that stuff. The recorded trend is a coming coming minimum with temps dropping. As you say, it's staring you in the face. No need for a hockey stick shaped hookie-pook to convince anyone of the veracity of the trend.
 

gnome

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Keep trying gnome. Maybe someday someone might believe that stuff. The recorded trend is a coming coming minimum with temps dropping. As you say, it's staring you in the face. No need for a hockey stick shaped hookie-pook to convince anyone of the veracity of the trend.
You keep trying.
Wake me up when we have a record cold year on anything more than a regional basis.
I've been hearing this nonsense about sunspots for 6+ years on GIM2, where is this new ice age?

https://www.noaa.gov/news/northern-hemisphere-just-had-its-hottest-summer-on-record
Northern Hemisphere just had its hottest summer on record
August 2020 ended as 2nd hottest for the globe

September 14, 2020
A collage of typical climate and weather-related events: heatwaves, drought, hurricanes, wildfires and changes in sea ice coverage.
It’s been a remarkably steamy, record-setting last three months for Mother Earth.

Not only was August 2020 the second-warmest August on record, but the Northern Hemisphere had its warmest summer, and the globe as a whole had its third-hottest three-month season, too.

Here are highlights from NOAA’s latest monthly global climate report:

Climate by the numbers
August 2020
According to scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, the average global land and ocean surface temperature in August was 1.69 degrees F (0.94 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C), making it the second-hottest August in the 141-year record, behind August 2016.

The Northern Hemisphere had its hottest August on record with a temperature departure from average of 2.14 degrees F (1.19 degrees C), besting the previous record set in August 2016.

Globally, the 10 warmest Augusts have all occurred since 1998 — with the five warmest occurring since 2015.

The year to date (YTD) & meteorological summer
The 3-month season from June through August 2020 was the Northern Hemisphere’s hottest meteorological summer on record, surpassing both 2019 and 2016 which were previously tied for hottest.

This period, which also marks the Southern Hemisphere’s winter, was Earth’s third warmest in the 141-year record at 1.66 degrees F (0.92 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average.

Globally, the YTD (January through August) ranked as 2nd hottest recorded, at 1.85 degrees F (1.03 degrees C) above the 20th-century average of 57.3 degrees F (14.0 degrees C) — just behind the record set in 2016. The Northern Hemisphere’s YTD tied with 2016 as the hottest since global records began in 1880.

According to a statistical analysis done by NCEI scientists, 2020 is very likely to rank among the five-warmest years on record.

A map of the world plotted with some of the most significant weather and climate events that occurred during August and meteorological Summer 2020. For more details, see the bullets below in this story and more from the NOAA report at http://bit.ly/Global202008.
A map of the world plotted with some of the most significant weather and climate events that occurred during August 2020. For more details, see the bullets below in this story and more from the NOAA report at http://bit.ly/GlobalAug2020.
Download Image
More notable climate stats and facts
Arctic sea ice continued declining: The average Arctic sea ice extent (coverage) in August was the third smallest on record, 29.4% below the 1981–2010 average, according to analysis by the National Snow and Ice Data Centeroffsite link. Antarctic sea ice extent was close to normal, and had its highest coverage since 2016.
A few continents baked: North America as a whole had its hottest August on record (the Caribbean region saw its third-hottest), beating the previous record set in 2011 by 0.23 of a degree F (0.13 of a degree C). Elsewhere, Europe had its third hottest August, and South America and Oceania had their fourth hottest August.
2020 has been a real boiler of a year, so far: Europe, Asia and the Caribbean region had their hottest January-August period on record. South America’s YTD average temperature ranked as 2nd-hottest ever recorded.
More > Access NOAA’s full climate report and download images from NCEI website.

Media contact

John Bateman, (202) 424-0929
 

wallew

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#8
I heard that the molten core is about to EXPLODE and destroy our planet....

oh, wait, we're not on Krypton any more, right?

NEVER MIND
 

Goldhedge

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#9
Hot, or cold... taxing the world isn't going to FIX a damn thing!
 

dacrunch

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#11
August 2020 Earth Changes video:

The problem that I have with this sort of "footage" is that since NOW there are vid-cams GALORE and INSTANT INTERNET TRANSMISSION, these "events" appear to have increased DRASTICALLY.

I do agree that oversize modern urbanization and "flood-control mechanisms" have increased the likelihood of more "dramatic" disasters than when there were less "obstacles to be broken"... but...

way back in the 60s & 70s, with only newspapers & tv reporting, there were quite a lot of "disasters" on a weekly basis.... often just a few lines such as "hundreds of thousands displaced by floods in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh)"... or "hundreds of thousands of children dying of famine under Idi Amin"... "millions of acres of farm/grazing land lost to expanding Sahara Desert"... but without constant drumming "footage"...

That was 50-60 years ago...

So I don't get "worked up" over "modern man-made or natural disasters" the way younger people seem to...
 

ABC123

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#12
NASA Scientists Call a BS on Fake Climate Change

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Forty-nine former NASA scientists have written an open letter to NASA pointing out that NASA is hyping unsubstantiated and unverified claims about climate.



Excerpt:

"We, the undersigned, respectfully request that NASA and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) refrain from including unproven remarks in public releases and websites. We believe the claims by NASA and GISS, that man-made carbon dioxide is having a catastrophic impact on global climate change are not substantiated, especially when considering thousands of years of empirical data. With hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the catastrophic forecasts, coming particularly from the GISS leadership, it is clear that the science is NOT settled."



https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/10/49-nasa-scientists-call-bs/