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FED watch

Weatherman

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#1
The FED meets on 12/12 to decide about interest rates. My guess is that a quarter point increase is almost certain, and the current weakness in metal prices is front running the news about rising interest rates. I am looking for a bottom in metals a few days before or after the FED rate announcement.

But I would not be surprised if the outbound FED chair arranges to bump that increase up 3/8, or even a half point. A rate increase that is bigger than the expected 1/4 point would be a black swan that could trigger a correction (a few percent or maybe more) in the stock market.
 

solarion

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#2
You don't think this is priced into the debt market? Yield on the 10yr is up about .3% since the September lows.
 

Uglytruth

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#3
Long time ago Charles Givens had a money movement strategy wave chart. When interest rates are low, stocks will grow. Then he had bond & MM funds & the timing decision line. Anyone remember it? Anyone have it?
 

Uncle

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#5

Uglytruth

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#6
Thanks Uncle. Been a long time sense MM accounts paid over 9.5% interest. Hard to get your head around how much opportunity they have stolen from us. But then that is what they do to chattle & slaves.

In Hindsight I wonder how that would have worked if FEAR was not part of that equation.
With all the fake news I wonder where we are today.
 
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Aurumag

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#8
I was hoping that this thread was about a fed suicide watch.
 

Alton

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#9
I was hoping that this thread was about a fed suicide watch.
Considering just how confusticated money and markets are at this point, not even the fed has a clue of what to do...not that ever really did but markets figured out the stupidity of the fed long ago and have done whatever was possible to dance around fed errors and still make a profit. Today almost any fed action could result in financial calamity.
 

keef

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#10
I was hoping that this thread was about a fed suicide watch.
I thought raising the rates was akin to suicide, seeing how leveraged all the derivatives are?

The economy is a corpse. Fuckin Frankinstein since the '08 too big to fail collapse.

Hard to believe this is really happening and not just some late nite '50s horror movie.

Grab the popcorn and watch time :cow: It can't end well. How? We all become millionares on bitcoin??

No, somethin so evil we can't even comprehend it until we are in the belly of this beast surrounded by digestive juice.

And then it will be like< wtf? How did this happen?
 

nickndfl

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#11
We're going back to 1980s economics where home loans were 7% and you got 4% in a savings account. If you need to buy crap on loan, buy it now because it will cost more in the future. Deflation is over. Broad inflation is beginning again and it will be rapid.
 

solarion

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#12
We're going back to 1980s economics where home loans were 7% and you got 4% in a savings account.
No way goobermint at any level survives those rates for long...they have trillions upon trillions of debt to roll over. The fed has been jawboning about raising rates for years yet rates have barely come off their lowest point in US history...which was I believe last year. They'll give rate "normalization" a lot of lip service and yes, even fiddle a bit with those rates that are within their control to maintain some semblance of credibility, but even 3 - 4% on 10 year treasuries sounds destructive.