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First Spouse Coins

hernancortes

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Here we sit in October with the 2013 releases looming but still no mint announcement on exactly when. With seven 2012 spouses still for sale and 10 more 2013's coming within weeks, this is uncharted territory for the mint. There's no way they want that many available all at once so something has gotta give. Do you really think the mint will want to sell 2012-dated coins into 2014? I think they will bite the bullet and melt them instead, as the mint overestimated 2012 coins' demand based on the false-demand surge for Hayes and Garfield in late 2011. Knowing that, they will probably also strike the 2013's (which can only be struck in a single run as by law they cannot be minted into 2014) short of the 2012's. How short is anyone's guess.

Did anyone happen to notice a couple weeks back that Gainesville coin had a slew of the low-mintage uglies as well as a Buchanan appear one day on their site, all at just $50-$100 over spot, and were gone within hours? No doubt they acquired them in the same manner that APmex attempts to get unc. Van Buren's referenced in this thread a few pages back. Quite unlike the Van Buren though they are ugly but were nonetheless snatched up by virtue of their small mintage. At some point rarity creates its own demand, when you are talking about gold coins from the US mint. Anyhow I doubt these coins' new owner(s) has much intention of seeing them melted short of a huge gold price spike.
 

savvydon

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Here we sit in October with the 2013 releases looming but still no mint announcement on exactly when. With seven 2012 spouses still for sale and 10 more 2013's coming within weeks, this is uncharted territory for the mint. There's no way they want that many available all at once so something has gotta give. Do you really think the mint will want to sell 2012-dated coins into 2014? I think they will bite the bullet and melt them instead, as the mint overestimated 2012 coins' demand based on the false-demand surge for Hayes and Garfield in late 2011. Knowing that, they will probably also strike the 2013's (which can only be struck in a single run as by law they cannot be minted into 2014) short of the 2012's. How short is anyone's guess.

So now we are easing toward the end of the month and still not a peep from the Mint. I don't know if it is written in stone but my understanding is that the coins of each year are supposed to be released during that year. We are getting to where the mint will barely be able to separate the 2013 releases by two weeks. Something has to give pretty soon.
 

MrLucky

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I can see the headline now......

Mint makes decision to stop minting the First Spouse collection due to lack of demand.

2012 will be the last year for this series. Also due to an increased demand for the 1oz. GAE, the 1oz. bullion Buffalo coins will be discontinued also.

j/k


don't hit me.
 

hernancortes

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So now we are easing toward the end of the month and still not a peep from the Mint. I don't know if it is written in stone but my understanding is that the coins of each year are supposed to be released during that year. We are getting to where the mint will barely be able to separate the 2013 releases by two weeks. Something has to give pretty soon.
IMO what will 'give' is the 2012's will get removed from the catalog in succession as each 2013 debuts. That was the way it used to happen if a spouse failed to sell out after about a year of availability.
 

savvydon

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McKinley 11/14
Roosevelt 11/21
Taft 12/2
Wilson I - tbd
Wilson II - tbd
Interesting that we got a week between McKinley and Roosevelt, and then skipped over Thanksgiving to get to Monday the 2nd for Taft. I am going to guess that the Mint will try to get back to Thursday's for the Wilson coins and the 12th and 19th will be the dates, although it could be that they are looking to steer as clear of Christmas as possible and stay with Monday the 9th and 16th for the Wilsons. Whatever they do it will be a wild ride for sure, especially if price of gold starts to move around this time. All in all rolling out five new gold coins in just over a month right at the end of the year is a sure fire way to further stress a series that is already on the ropes. The 2014 Eagles will not be far behind these coins and this could further reduce early sales. This may be the time to hunker down and stay the course as posterity often rewards those with the foresight to see the current Mint ineptitudes for the future opportunities they represent.
 

savvydon

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Ida McKinley has been out for four days and there's been no notice.

Maybe I'll be the only one to buy one.
You might have just a little company but I'm guessing not so much. We will see how that works out in a couple of years when Jackie Kennedy shows up. ;)
 

hernancortes

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IMO what will 'give' is the 2012's will get removed from the catalog in succession as each 2013 debuts. That was the way it used to happen if a spouse failed to sell out after about a year of availability.
Once AGAIN I've been proven full of it as the mint catalog shows Alice Paul as still available. The mint must plan to sell these until they're gone which at the current pace could be far into 2014. The 2012's have been averaging sales 10-15 coins per week over the last 5 months and I do not see any way offering 10 more coins will stoke demand. How much worse can it get.
 

savvydon

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Once AGAIN I've been proven full of it as the mint catalog shows Alice Paul as still available. The mint must plan to sell these until they're gone which at the current pace could be far into 2014. The 2012's have been averaging sales 10-15 coins per week over the last 5 months and I do not see any way offering 10 more coins will stoke demand. How much worse can it get.
We should have an idea by this time tomarra. And yes, 48 hours after that the numbers will be diluted by the next two offerings.
 

Mr Paradise

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It's a shame this series isn't more popular.

I've been able to pick up a couple of the loose uncirculated ladies from APMEX when they have them on sale from time to time for $20 or $30 over melt. Nice little coins. :thumbs_up:
 

savvydon

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It's a shame this series isn't more popular.

I've been able to pick up a couple of the loose uncirculated ladies from APMEX when they have them on sale from time to time for $20 or $30 over melt. Nice little coins. :thumbs_up:
Agreed. When you can get them near melt they are about as good as any other metal purchase. Meanwhile, after the series has run its course and folks realize what the mintages are there is certainly the possibility that this will create added numismatic value. JMO :thumbs_up:
 

hernancortes

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2013 McKinley @ shortened week one:

unc: 945
Pr: 1282

Nothing too out of the ordinary. As ever, first 4 weeks of sales will be driven by hard-core collectors and 'first strike' speculators.
 

savvydon

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2013 McKinley @ shortened week one:

unc: 945
Pr: 1282

Nothing too out of the ordinary. As ever, first 4 weeks of sales will be driven by hard-core collectors and 'first strike' speculators.
Last year after waiting for most of the year there was pent up demand for the first release. Alice Paul did 1808 PR and 1394 Unc that first week. These figures are almost 33% lower.
 

hernancortes

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Last year after waiting for most of the year there was pent up demand for the first release. Alice Paul did 1808 PR and 1394 Unc that first week. These figures are almost 33% lower.
Yes but the three 2012's that followed alice fell in line with normal sales. I think alice's first week was bolstered by speculators expecting an early sellout on the heels of what happened with Hayes/Garfield.
 

savvydon

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Yes but the three 2012's that followed alice fell in line with normal sales. I think alice's first week was bolstered by speculators expecting an early sellout on the heels of what happened with Hayes/Garfield.
Good point. I agree that these numbers represent a base. Still, with the price of gold significantly down already and four more issues rolling out in rapid sequence these anemic numbers indicate that this year we will test the series lows - at least for the first few weeks of sales.
 

savvydon

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Looks like the Wilson's are now scheduled to go on 12/9 and 12/16. Partially depending on December's price action this could get interesting...
 

Deweydog

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I hope you guys that have stuck with these finally hit a good one.....should be cheaper yet with gold
under attack yet again.

I still believe in years to come they will find the scrap buckets. Maybe after a major melt at $3000 gold, the survivors will be appreciated as a "rarity" of sorts. $3000 gold feels a million miles away at the moment, doesn't it?
 

hernancortes

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I hope you guys that have stuck with these finally hit a good one.....should be cheaper yet with gold
under attack yet again.

I still believe in years to come they will find the scrap buckets. Maybe after a major melt at $3000 gold, the survivors will be appreciated as a "rarity" of sorts. $3000 gold feels a million miles away at the moment, doesn't it?
At $3,000 gold there is very little motivation to melt the keys, which trade near that now. Think $4,500 or better. The ugly ones with relatively higher mintages will find melt buckets. According to Silvertowne, about 10,000 of the '07's already have by their own doing (that was in Coin World, btw).

Putting aside HS's eccentricity he has always been correct about one thing and that is the spouse's will be hands down the most difficult series to collect in modern coins. And that is leaving 'condition-rarity' out of the equation since nearly all of them are 69 or better. A complete set of mint state $25 gold eagles is very hard to collect in ms68 or better; a complete set of ms spouses will be hard to collect, period. The inherent challenge in completing the gold spouse series, I've believed since '08 when the down-mintage trend was made clear, will motivate some to ignore the coins' design. I could be wrong but let's remember that there are many many ugly coins out there that are very pricey for no other reason than they complete a series.
 

SirOzzyyzzO

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Wow - trying to sell some of these older dates - like the 2011-W's, to be specific, in MS and/or PF69 Hurts - really, really, bad... Offers from the big-boys are btwn. $650 & $700 (E-Bay pays a little more, but almost even when one deducts the fees and so forth). One of the big boys is not even interested in offering a buy price. I was simply hoping to break even or come close and buy some of this year Spouses in 70's - the 2014 70's seem to be reasonable right now and may be the new Keys (for the time being) - I hope.

Anyone still following these?
 
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Wow - trying to sell some of these older dates - like the 2011-W's, to be specific, in MS and/or PF69 Hurts - really, really, bad... Offers from the big-boys are btwn. $650 & $700 (E-Bay pays a little more, but almost even when one deducts the fees and so forth). One of the big boys is not even interested in offering a buy price. I was simply hoping to break even or come close and buy some of this year Spouses in 70's - the 2014 70's seem to be reasonable right now and may be the new Keys (for the time being) - I hope.

Anyone still following these?
No, but I remember the pumper. Good Luck to ya.
 

hernancortes

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Wow - trying to sell some of these older dates - like the 2011-W's, to be specific, in MS and/or PF69 Hurts - really, really, bad... Offers from the big-boys are btwn. $650 & $700 (E-Bay pays a little more, but almost even when one deducts the fees and so forth). One of the big boys is not even interested in offering a buy price. I was simply hoping to break even or come close and buy some of this year Spouses in 70's - the 2014 70's seem to be reasonable right now and may be the new Keys (for the time being) - I hope.

Anyone still following these?
In 2011 & 2012 when the mint offered your coins, mint pricing fluctuated between $920 and $1115. So the premiums haven't changed much at all. With what PM spot has done the last 2 years virtually all modern PM coins (with the strong exception of the the 95W ASE's and 91 $25 AGE's) have followed in kind ---- either stalled or in the toilet.
 

SirOzzyyzzO

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In 2011 & 2012 when the mint offered your coins, mint pricing fluctuated between $920 and $1115. So the premiums haven't changed much at all. With what PM spot has done the last 2 years virtually all modern PM coins (with the strong exception of the the 95W ASE's and 91 $25 AGE's) have followed in kind ---- either stalled or in the toilet.
Yup! Exactly - I was lucky at $920 - So, I get beat a little less...

Any mintage numbers on the current year releases? I am tempted to take the bait on one or two in a 70...
 

Oldmansmith

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Uglies are like playing musical chairs. If and when they stop the series, especially if done suddenly, the last ones will probably be worth a lot. The rest, not so much.
 

MrLucky

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Wow - trying to sell some of these older dates - like the 2011-W's, to be specific, in MS and/or PF69 Hurts - really, really, bad...
If you think the 69 rating will hurt your sales, just crack them out and offer them as raw (got ogp?), from a private owner. (assumes you're not a dealer) You may get a better price.
 

SirOzzyyzzO

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If you think the 69 rating will hurt your sales, just crack them out and offer them as raw (got ogp?), from a private owner. (assumes you're not a dealer) You may get a better price.
Yes, you are correct! I lost a lot of the ogp's to Hurricane Sandy. But, thanks for that option - I may try it.
 

MrLucky

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Without ogp I'd be inclined to leave them in the slab, even if they are 69's. Otherwise, I would avoid buying them unless I was considering them as bullion plays.
 

savvydon

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Hey Savvydon,
I just PM'd you, but I also did earlier and it doesn't look like you got it. In short, I just sent you over an offer. I copied and pasted this last one in case it didn't go through too. Let me know if and when you have time - Thanks!
Gotcha - PM sent.
 

hernancortes

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Wow! Those are lower mintage than even the 2008-W 1/2 ounce Platinum Eagle. Edith Wilson is presently the lowest 2013 coin with current mint state sales last reported at 1,264. Gold appears to be back in an uptrend and that could cause some fast sell-outs following any spike in bullion prices.
And to think I was certain that the burnished plats were safe as modern mintage kings. I'm not so sure the Hayes and Garfield are safe themselves. It all depends on how many the mint struck this year.
Do you or any others here have any of the 2008-w 1/2 oz. unc. plat's? Another member and myself own quite a few between us. I haven't checked in with him in awhile though.
 

hernancortes

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http://www.coinweek.com/commentary/first-spouse-gold-coins/
The Coin Analyst: Why I Stopped Collecting First Spouse Gold Coins


I appreciate the FS Liberty. I believe a better artistic job could have been done. I wish all those who collect these the best.
Golino thinks that the few Liberty coins have promise as well as the low mintage "keys" (plural). Well this series will produce quite a few keys when only 2100-3000 are made. Otherwise he seems to state that since there's no demand now for the rest, there may never be. He's probably wrong about that. Ebay and other auction sites will set the market for the other 'holes' in the series, and people will continue to be amazed at what people will pay especially for 70's.
 

HistoryStudent

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i·con·o·clas·tic
[ahy-kon-uh-klas-tik] Show IPA
adjective
1.
attacking or ignoring cherished beliefs and long-held traditions, etc., as being based on error, superstition, or lack of creativity: an iconoclastic architect whose buildings are like monumental sculptures. HS your iconoclastic numismatist.


Golino just ran out of funds. Sadly.

I expect these to be very PRICY this year as he did when he wrote his article.

The reason is the price swing UPWARD coming in gold which has the under lament of the spot price holding ceiling and your protection.

Soon the spouses in UNC MS will hit below 2,000 units: and the spouse in PROOF PF will hit under 3,000 in units sales with the audits. That will make this unloved series the most unpopular coins since the late 1700s - an appraisal by the iconoclast = HS. With humor.

The spouses do kinda rhyme with the $50 1915 Pan American both units when figuring in different times with citizen population, price, incomes, respect, and total collector numbers. Not to mention that instead of just two gold $50 coins (1915) they, the FS spouse series will be absolutely gigantic: as it s right now and getting bigger. When they go dark in 2016 and with a new female president (maybe) things might get interesting.



"History does not exactly repeat, but the damn thing sure does rhyme," Mark Twain.
 
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HistoryStudent

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Wow! Those are lower mintage than even the 2008-W 1/2 ounce Platinum Eagle. Edith Wilson is presently the lowest 2013 coin with current mint state sales last reported at 1,264. Gold appears to be back in an uptrend and that could cause some fast sell-outs following any spike in bullion prices.
You got it TOYOTA!

Most do NOT understand how really low these mintages are.

The US MINT is "dead set" against minting hardly any GOLD coin that sells less than 10,000 units.

(Platinum is their special baby so they will make JUST one the ONE ounce really low mintage; they killed the fractional sets back in 2009 in PF).
 
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