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First Spouse Coins

savvydon

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2015 First Ladies schedule is out now:

Elizabeth Truman - 4/16
Mamie Eisenhower - 5/7
Jacqueline Kennedy - June
Lady Bird Johnson - August

Looks like the mint has gotten the series back on track just in time to finish it up. This spring promises to be a crowded house full of first ladies over at the US Mint. Will they keep the party going or retire the 2013 ladies?
 

hernancortes

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The way the mint used to do it --- until they got off track in production a couple years ago --- was to end sales of the corresponding prior-year issue when a new coin debuted. For example, the 1st 2009 spouse issue would go offsale the day the 1st 2010 spouse debuted. That process took about a year, 12 to 13 months in every case. So, if all the 2013's don't disappear April 16, I am pretty sure that at least the McKinleys will. At this point new keys are a virtual lock, with several uncs finishing with sub-2000 sales. Total fatigue has set in and no one cares. Which is good if you take the long view.
 

savvydon

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The way the mint used to do it --- until they got off track in production a couple years ago --- was to end sales of the corresponding prior-year issue when a new coin debuted. For example, the 1st 2009 spouse issue would go offsale the day the 1st 2010 spouse debuted. That process took about a year, 12 to 13 months in every case. So, if all the 2013's don't disappear April 16, I am pretty sure that at least the McKinleys will. At this point new keys are a virtual lock, with several uncs finishing with sub-2000 sales. Total fatigue has set in and no one cares. Which is good if you take the long view.
If if your model becomes a reality, they will be carrying two years worth of coins, which is a change from how it used to be. Really, there is no precedent at this point, so whatever is decided is likely to surprise. In the past surprises have often made for keys/helped stimulate a series. All the current lethargy really does hold some long term promise... this spring should get interesting.
 

hernancortes

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Prime example of series lethargy: GainesvilleCoin has M Taylor and A Fillmore uncs for 40 and 50 over spot respectively -- unremarkable coins in the series with mintages in the 3400-3600 range, now being treated as melt fodder. If you have anything like a moderate to longish time horizon, basically you're dumb if you overlook these in favor of 1/2 oz. maples, krugs, or common-date eagles.
 

Foxwoods Man

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Why would someone pay $815 to buy a PF gold spouse from the Mint when they sell for around $700 on Ebay? (actually $675 w/free shipping..2013 McKinley sold today)

Of course the numbers will remain low...
 

savvydon

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Why would someone pay $815 to buy a PF gold spouse from the Mint when they sell for around $700 on Ebay? (actually $675 w/free shipping..2013 McKinley sold today)

Of course the numbers will remain low...
Could be that the concern is that if you buy from ebay you are looking at a grading reject whereas if you buy from the Mint you have a shot at a 'perfect' coin. Still, I agree that that hardly justifies that kind of premium, especially when any coin graded now will lack a 'First Strike' or 'Early Release' designation. Seems that the series is set up to fail... in the present, anyway.
 

hernancortes

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Good eye! It'll likely be key for a little bit at least but bear in mind it looks like they struck fewer Harding PR's than Eleanor PR's and I would imagine the same might apply to the uncs as well. I'd wager they struck more Eleanors than any other 2014 but it may not amount to enough to matter. Also it's still an open question as to whether the 2013 unc wilsons I and II will even make it to 1900 sales.
 

hernancortes

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Thoughts:
-Post #1677. Appears the mint is holding the ratio of uncs to PR's roughly in line with what they've always done.
-IF this sellout causes increased sales across the board for spouses, it will push the all 2013's sales higher than the 2014's max. mintage.
-Again, Anticipated Demand. Did the mint anticipate a somewhat higher demand for Eleanor than other 2014's. I say they did, that equals more coins. I think Hoover unc will come in lowest in sales but not necessarily in final mintage - there's no way to know what that'll be.
 

hernancortes

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XLS mint report as of 3-15 (preliminary)
2013
McKinley Pr 2703
Mckinley unc 1981
Edith Roosevelt PR 2827 - about 15 remaining
Edith roosevelt unc 1987
Taft PR 2511
Taft unc 1888
Wilson I PR 2443
Wilson I unc 1870
Wilson II PR 2393
Wilson II unc 1870

2014
Harding PR 2280 - about 65 remaining
Harding unc 1513
Coolidge PR 2175
Coolidge unc 1485
Hoover PR 2045
Hoover unc 1475
Eleanor Roosevelt PR 2377 - out of stock
Eleanor Roosevelt unc 1924 - out of stock
 

hernancortes

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The XLS spreadsheet was off as it sometimes is, in fact most these numbers are way different. Mint Report for 3/15. Something is fishy about these numbers-- for example if Harding proof has 65 left in stock that will push it over Eleanor.
2013
McKinley Pr 2784
Mckinley unc 1989
Edith Roosevelt PR 2875 -
Edith roosevelt unc 2033
Taft PR 2598
Taft unc 1910
Wilson I PR 2570
Wilson I unc 1901
Wilson II PR 2462
Wilson II unc 1906

2014
Harding PR 2363
Harding unc 1536
Coolidge PR 2274
Coolidge unc 1515
Hoover PR 2096
Hoover unc 1487
Eleanor Roosevelt PR 2378 - out of stock
Eleanor Roosevelt unc 1911 - out of stock
 

savvydon

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US Mint sales report showing total combines First Spouse sales of 1076 last week - up from 89 the previous week.

It is obvious that people are jockeying around looking for the next series key/quick flip. Things may get chaotic over the next month as the opening day of sales for the first 2015 coin, Elizabeth Truman, approaches.

Currently 61 Harding proofs and 11 Edith Roosevelt proofs available.
 

Oldmansmith

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I'm waiting for.....


I want to be Jackie Onassis
I want to wear a pair of dark sunglasses
I want to be Jackie Onassis, oh yeah

I want bodyguards all around
I'm anxious to avoid an autograph hound
Just let me be Jackie Onassis, oh yeah

I'm ready for the world to take a good look at me
Photographers can snap my picture, I'll pose for free
Tabloids can make my name a household word
I'll belong to millions but be free as a bird

I want my portrait done by Andy Warhol
I'll let them market a Jackie O doll
Just let me be Jackie Onassis, oh yeah...

First the world will call me Bouvier, hey
Then I'll change to Jackie K.
After my date with tragedy
I'll let Aristotle take care of me

I want to be Jackie Onassis, oh yeah
I said, I'd be happy to be Jackie

Oh yeah, oh yeah...
I'd be so happy, then I'd be pleased!
I'd make Harry go down on his knees!
 

b_cahill

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The latest mint sales report seems suspect. Total sales of zero for the spouses last week, with all of the 2013 coins listed as zero.
 

hernancortes

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Yes it is suspect... the XLS spreadsheet totals which come out Mondays are significantly lower than the 'official' reports they are issuing on Tuesdays. In short I think they XLS numbers are the real ones and we shall see downward revisions of sales number when the coins are taken off sale. Eleanor is not safe as a key by any means and I still think Hoover and Coolidge will come in lower. By the way, tomorrow we may see the 2013's go off sale finally, or at least the McKinley.
 

Starter

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Let me know when you guys are ready to buy one of these coins.:smile:
 

savvydon

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By the way, tomorrow we may see the 2013's go off sale finally, or at least the McKinley.
Well, you have to give the mint credit for consistency. That is, consistently changing up how they do things and keeping us mortal collectors in the dark... Looks like they have successfully deployed the first 2015 spouse (Bess Truman) without removing any of the 2013 coins. Go figure!
 

savvydon

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Let me know when you guys are ready to buy one of these coins.:smile:

If you see zero Bess Truman first spouses sold in next weeks mint figures then I'm here to personally assure you that they are not reporting correctly. :laugh_m:
 

Starter

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If you see zero Bess Truman first spouses sold in next weeks mint figures then I'm here to personally assure you that they are not reporting correctly. :laugh_m:
Are you going for the complete collection?

I've heard that the Certificate of Authenticity and box play a significant factor in the value of coins from the Mint.
 

savvydon

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Are you going for the complete collection?

I've heard that the Certificate of Authenticity and box play a significant factor in the value of coins from the Mint.
I am going for a complete set in proof. I prefer the mint boxes with COA. I also speculate a bit in the graded (slabbed) coins.
 

tradeshack

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Bess Truman 2015 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Proof Coin
Bess Truman 2015 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Uncirculated Coin

This product is currently Unavailable.
 

lightcycler

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I'm not a US mint prognosticator. I would think they would have a second round of the same number of coins each. That would fall into the numbers Roosevelt sold out at? I could be wrong but sure would be my guess
 

hernancortes

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About 1100 for an initial unc strike? I suppose the mint the mint actually does not mind having to strike more provided they know they have plenty of time to do so.
 

Chester-Copperpot

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Thanks for clearing that up. I was pondering buying ten to flip, that could have got ugly :argh:

Are the Bess Truman coins on back order too, or have those sold out completely?
 

tradeshack

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The mint describes both Bess Truman gold coins as, "This product is currently Unavailable". I tend to describe the condition as "sold out" because the initial inventory was all sold. Of course it's more clear to describe it as a "back order" because of the possibility that the mint may produce more. It may be better yet to describe the condition exactly as the mint has since we don't know for certain that more will be produced.
More news:

Grace Coolidge 2014 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Proof Coin - 62 Item(s) In Stock
Florence Harding 2014 First Spouse Series One-Half Ounce Gold Proof Coin - 36 Item(s) In Stock