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Foreclosures are on the rise. Here’s what that says about the housing market

BackwardsEngineeer

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Flipping renovations can be very profitable if you know the construction market & have access to labor. If not, then you could get lucky and make some money, but when the market slows down you will be upside down overnight.
Agree nick,
It is a crowded space, takes more than a breakfast table and a computer. Lots of lifetimers who started with rich dad 20+ years ago still at it, some have done incredibly well. Like yours and most businesses, it has several micro components happening simultaneously.
Scouting properties
Assessing requirements
Arranging financing
Legal closings
Permitting
Coordinating contractors
Ordering materials
Completing renovations
Property cleanup and prep
Listing
potential buyer repair
close
Rinse and repeat

There is little time in this model for mom and pop to assess market conditions, beyond more potential prorpeties showing up. There is a lot to flipping if you try to scale up, not the least of which is stress..
 

Voodoo

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Another really good video here. The Winners to soon be Losers. The biggest market crash winner may well be Austin Tx, Sorry Boise Id maybe next time. Anyway, he projects many of these markets to be 25-30% overvalued and since most markets go past "fair values" I'd say you will see some markets correct close to 50%. Kinda depends on what they do with foreclosures.

 

Voodoo

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Agree nick,
It is a crowded space, takes more than a breakfast table and a computer. Lots of lifetimers who started with rich dad 20+ years ago still at it, some have done incredibly well. Like yours and most businesses, it has several micro components happening simultaneously.
Scouting properties
Assessing requirements
Arranging financing
Legal closings
Permitting
Coordinating contractors
Ordering materials
Completing renovations
Property cleanup and prep
Listing
potential buyer repair
close
Rinse and repeat

There is little time in this model for mom and pop to assess market conditions, beyond more potential prorpeties showing up. There is a lot to flipping if you try to scale up, not the least of which is stress..

I found it hilarious when Fannie Mae suddenly thought they could get into the game. They have no idea how to do any real work. But that didn't stop them from thinking it was a good idea. They started trying to "flip" their foreclosures, which probably worked ok for a few properties, ie the ones that only need paint and carpet.
 

Uglytruth

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I wouldn't mind of one of them wholesalers called me and made a reasonable offer. I'd buy 1000 oz bars of silver with most of it and spend a year or 3 island hopping waiting for silver to explode and real estate to crash.
I'm sure with a littel research........ you could find them
 

Cigarlover

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I'm sure with a littel research........ you could find them
I got contacted earlier this year twice with offers on my 2nd piece of land. I figured the value is close to twice what they offered.
 

Uglytruth

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Same here but they offered 1/3.
 

Fiat Metaler

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Agree nick,
It is a crowded space, takes more than a breakfast table and a computer. Lots of lifetimers who started with rich dad 20+ years ago still at it, some have done incredibly well. Like yours and most businesses, it has several micro components happening simultaneously.
Scouting properties
Assessing requirements
Arranging financing
Legal closings
Permitting
Coordinating contractors
Ordering materials
Completing renovations
Property cleanup and prep
Listing
potential buyer repair
close
Rinse and repeat

There is little time in this model for mom and pop to assess market conditions, beyond more potential prorpeties showing up. There is a lot to flipping if you try to scale up, not the least of which is stress..

Type wholesaling real estate into youtube. You can do this pretty much with just a breakfast table and a computer. You use software to target potential properties, basically cold call them. They call you and then you offer them a price below market value. Then you get them under contract, and sell the contract to someone else who is going to do the hard work of actually closing on the purchase, funding the repairs, and reselling it. You can expect to make about $5K-$20K per deal, but you do very little work. Its a little more difficult than I described, but far simpler than doing everything yourself.
 

Fiat Metaler

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I wouldn't mind of one of them wholesalers called me and made a reasonable offer. I'd buy 1000 oz bars of silver with most of it and spend a year or 3 island hopping waiting for silver to explode and real estate to crash.

You can list on MLS but that means someone else is going to take 3%-6% of the deal.

One used to be able to list on Zillow for free with their "make me move" feature that would solicit offers.

I think you can still "list" on Zillow or real estate.com, but you may have to pay a few bucks.

I would caution you that the offer will be low. Lets say your house, when updated, would sell for 500K but will require 50K in repairs. The investors are going to want to make at least the amount of the repairs, probably double, so their offer will be in the 350K - 400K range. That compensates them for their work and risk and gives them a cushion if something goes wrong. But on the bright side they will usually pay all cash in a few days and take it as is so there are no contingencies.

I don't know your circumstances, but I would talk to a realtor but not sign anything. Find out what repairs will increase the value of your house. Consider doing the simple things now, like removing clutter, updating the paint and carpet colors and cleaning up the landscaping. The less work involved for the next guy reduces their investment of time and money. Also, I would look for ways to maximize exposure. Listing on realtor.com or zillow is probably worth spending a few bucks. The more eyeballs the more offers, and the more offers the higher your price goes.
 

dacrunch

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22 yo at work has been looking in to houses. Today he said Blackrock & Vanguard want to control 70% of all dwellings.

All I could think of is before the fauci flu 67% of the country could not scrape together $1000. Working serf anyone?

I've often contemplated that paychecks ru out the last 2 days before the next weekly paycheck.

If low-end workers were paid monthly, more than the last week of the month would have no food on the table = mass riots...
 

EO 11110

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Voodoo

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The thing about higher rates is that it will also CUT off money that many people have gotten accustomed. There are many people that simply expect their homes to always appreciate and if they need money just go take out a (now lower rate-because they only go down) home equity loan.
 

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Many here are in sales in some form or fashion, if you have been under any sales coaching or mandatory training like is used in the real estate market, you have run into face to face conversation training and objection handling. There are scripts for every possible scenario or objection... the thinking goes if you master the scripts and can handle any objection you will soon be driving a gold caddy and accepting awards... this is the exact reason people hate agents, they often come away feeling manipulated, needs and desires not heard or acknowledged.

I mention this to differentiate between classic pipeline strategy and new mass approach, I call it slice em and dice em, cause just like vegomatic it threads the most people in t.he least amount of time. The pipeline concept was developed prior to my stead in any business, but the concept is clear and concise. Bust your butt today, doing the very best with every contact, deal or discrepancy. If you focus on today, loading the pipeline and doing what's right eventually you'll load the pipe and orders will begin to spill out. How you handle those initial orders, will determine your path and set you up into your eventual career. The pipe also best describes the process that is required in any industry to rightfully expect an actual order. For example, I used to sell big ticket items to Flour, from first presentation of a product, through design, funding and lead time to manufacture would typically take three to four years. Now you might get a big stinking check but you have stay in business long enough to see the $. Which pretty much precluded any little companies from ever getting going there. Too long of a path to reliably see success.

This thread is about the turn in the real estate market, this is what the current pipeline looks like, for a pre owning seller. Sally and Bob have decided to move from main st to the outhouse, so they start fixing their place up(loyalty point users will trigger a variety of bots, signally possible sale, info sold to listing agents). The fix up phase is normally tied to a bunch of zillow time, looking and dreaming, this can take anywhere from a month to about a year or longer. Fixed up they contact an agent, who explains market won't usually allow for home sale contingency, better plan on listing, getting your place under contract and sold. Typically it takes two to three months to list and close a deal. During that time the buyers are burning gas and internet time dreaming into a future place. Then another three to six months to get a new place and redo or fix up the new place. So some amount of time, can be three to five years thinking about moving, one month to a year fixing up to sell, three months to sell, three months to buy... so from a dim light bulb overhead to actual, new home can easily be three to six years. Keep in mind, internet bots are spotting you and digging around you every step of the process. So in the pipeline of real estate there are many markers where an agent can reliably predict who is going to buy or sell in a given year.

So if Bob and sally use my website to get free updates, discounts or general searching, I will be alerted to increased traffic, price points and types of properties. Once you build your database to multiple thousand names it begins to paint a bigger picture. In an agents office, if there is 20+ agents it expands the scope regionally... So up thread when I mentioned that the next six weeks would paint the tape, I wasn't only referring to closed deals or active contingent offers. Really my focus is how many people are planning on making a move over the next two years. Post being shut-ins, buyers have crammed the pipe to overflowing, begging and pleading sellers to allow them the chance to pay was too much for their homes. Wether its rates, or gas prices or maybe just tired of looking all of those super active markers are slowing in unison. So it is hard to verbalize but buyer indifference has been unleashed and is spreading. How widespread? We'll know by August.....
 

Voodoo

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Many here are in sales in some form or fashion, if you have been under any sales coaching or mandatory training like is used in the real estate market, you have run into face to face conversation training and objection handling. There are scripts for every possible scenario or objection... the thinking goes if you master the scripts and can handle any objection you will soon be driving a gold caddy and accepting awards... this is the exact reason people hate agents, they often come away feeling manipulated, needs and desires not heard or acknowledged.

I mention this to differentiate between classic pipeline strategy and new mass approach, I call it slice em and dice em, cause just like vegomatic it threads the most people in t.he least amount of time. The pipeline concept was developed prior to my stead in any business, but the concept is clear and concise. Bust your butt today, doing the very best with every contact, deal or discrepancy. If you focus on today, loading the pipeline and doing what's right eventually you'll load the pipe and orders will begin to spill out. How you handle those initial orders, will determine your path and set you up into your eventual career. The pipe also best describes the process that is required in any industry to rightfully expect an actual order. For example, I used to sell big ticket items to Flour, from first presentation of a product, through design, funding and lead time to manufacture would typically take three to four years. Now you might get a big stinking check but you have stay in business long enough to see the $. Which pretty much precluded any little companies from ever getting going there. Too long of a path to reliably see success.

This thread is about the turn in the real estate market, this is what the current pipeline looks like, for a pre owning seller. Sally and Bob have decided to move from main st to the outhouse, so they start fixing their place up(loyalty point users will trigger a variety of bots, signally possible sale, info sold to listing agents). The fix up phase is normally tied to a bunch of zillow time, looking and dreaming, this can take anywhere from a month to about a year or longer. Fixed up they contact an agent, who explains market won't usually allow for home sale contingency, better plan on listing, getting your place under contract and sold. Typically it takes two to three months to list and close a deal. During that time the buyers are burning gas and internet time dreaming into a future place. Then another three to six months to get a new place and redo or fix up the new place. So some amount of time, can be three to five years thinking about moving, one month to a year fixing up to sell, three months to sell, three months to buy... so from a dim light bulb overhead to actual, new home can easily be three to six years. Keep in mind, internet bots are spotting you and digging around you every step of the process. So in the pipeline of real estate there are many markers where an agent can reliably predict who is going to buy or sell in a given year.

So if Bob and sally use my website to get free updates, discounts or general searching, I will be alerted to increased traffic, price points and types of properties. Once you build your database to multiple thousand names it begins to paint a bigger picture. In an agents office, if there is 20+ agents it expands the scope regionally... So up thread when I mentioned that the next six weeks would paint the tape, I wasn't only referring to closed deals or active contingent offers. Really my focus is how many people are planning on making a move over the next two years. Post being shut-ins, buyers have crammed the pipe to overflowing, begging and pleading sellers to allow them the chance to pay was too much for their homes. Wether its rates, or gas prices or maybe just tired of looking all of those super active markers are slowing in unison. So it is hard to verbalize but buyer indifference has been unleashed and is spreading. How widespread? We'll know by August.....

TL:Dr. We knew this was coming it just took something to break the trend. That was the 2% increase in mortgage rates here. All markets are the same and they are all about FOMO. Especially these days where most people have an attention span of a knat.
 

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Hey up voodoo,
While it makes for great conversation over a dozen beers, the why's, what's, where's really aren't that important. It's the river, the water is going down and all we can do is paddle what's left. The problem is, low water puts more paddlers in close proximity and eventually they start beating each other racing to the last rapid... Reiterates how important it is to be set and debt free, it allows for more time to respond and anticipate in a crisis... my current thinking is one of those back breaking big Ag bars will buy a pretty nice home when the dust settles...
 

Goldhedge

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I get texts offering to buy my home.

I replied to one once and asked them who they represented Blackrock, or Vanguard?

They didn't reply.
 

Uglytruth

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The thing about higher rates is that it will also CUT off money that many people have gotten accustomed. There are many people that simply expect their homes to always appreciate and if they need money just go take out a (now lower rate-because they only go down) home equity loan.
Until they run out of credit a job or whatever.



one of those back breaking big Ag bars will buy a pretty nice home when the dust settles...
That is why I put off purchasing a used car. At this point it made more sense to buy new. I jsut wish the metals woudl quit playing dead....... it don't even bounce to get me interested anymore.
 

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guy on tv said there is a rule of 10. add the gasoline price to the mtg rate. if it's over 10 = bad juju incoming
 

Voodoo

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Hey up voodoo,
While it makes for great conversation over a dozen beers, the why's, what's, where's really aren't that important. It's the river, the water is going down and all we can do is paddle what's left. The problem is, low water puts more paddlers in close proximity and eventually they start beating each other racing to the last rapid... Reiterates how important it is to be set and debt free, it allows for more time to respond and anticipate in a crisis... my current thinking is one of those back breaking big Ag bars will buy a pretty nice home when the dust settles...

I set my sell price / buy price a long time ago thinking that I would buy a house with a nice 100oz shiny bar. Of silver of course.
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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guy on tv said there is a rule of 10. add the gasoline price to the mtg rate. if it's over 10 = bad juju incoming
Never heard of that one EO, guess the world will implode above 15, universe above 20?
 

Uglytruth

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I set my sell price / buy price a long time ago thinking that I would buy a house with a nice 100oz shiny bar. Of silver of course.
If silver does "POP" what will you buy? If you already have a house a car? Roof? Remodel? Furniture? Land?
 

coopersmith

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If silver does "POP" what will you buy? If you already have a house a car? Roof? Remodel? Furniture? Land?
Hookers and blow...............havent you been paying attention?

:don't know:

cmon man...........

niceass.jpg
 

Uglytruth

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Thecrensh

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I get texts offering to buy my home.

I replied to one once and asked them who they represented Blackrock, or Vanguard?

They didn't reply.
I always reply "no"
 

Voodoo

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If silver does "POP" what will you buy? If you already have a house a car? Roof? Remodel? Furniture? Land?

I'm just going to use that as my guide as to when it is time to shift LT investments. And perhaps buy myself a nice long-term house. That will be the time to sell some silver / PM's and perhaps buy RE rentals and stocks or other investments again.
 

Casey Jones

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you can sell this silver stuff?
That's the other part of this "money" thing. You take money for work or creation of value; and then later, you trade that money for **STUFF**.

Silver is not legal tender, but then, unlike legaltender fiat, it doesn't decompose from printing runs. So it's one more intermediary step.

But the beauty of ownership is, what you can later buy with it.
 

WillA2

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If silver does "POP" what will you buy? If you already have a house a car? Roof? Remodel? Furniture? Land?

A house for my oldest kiddo.
 

Lancers32

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If you don't have a job does it matter what the interest rate is on your mortgage? I hear lots of this time is different from many message boards. IF I could sell I would get out yesterday.
 

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If you don't have a job does it matter what the interest rate is on your mortgage? I hear lots of this time is different from many message boards. IF I could sell I would get out yesterday.
Lancers,
Got rid of most everything, a couple owned with others I have zip control over.. Keeping the primary as it fits needs and checks boxes, mostly for mrs be, but I love it also. So like the speed wagon, I'm just riding the storm out, waiting for the fall out

Edit to add... when they say this time is different they always assume more positive, better. This time is different, this time means worse case, no safety nets.. no conservation corps
 

MrLucky

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I sold a property in Florida last year. I still get calls asking if I want to sell it. I tell them I already sold it, but the calls keep coming. So I told the last caller, I'll sell it again if they want. They hung up on that one.
 

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Fiat Metaler

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I keep seeing stories about higher mortgage rates, slowing demand, and a slowing economy, which I do not doubt. Even lumber prices are coming down. But for now labor prices and home prices remain steady or rising. Knowing D.C., I don't expect that to change.

I dont usually eat at McDonalds but I was on a road trip yesterday and paid over $8 for a quarter pounder and fries (and a cup of water) at McDonalds. Help wanted signs everywhere starting at $15/hour. In this environment, I don't see that translating into lower home prices.
 

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consumer sentiment is trashed -- even lower than the lockdown era

1654872732489.png
 

EO 11110

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Lancers,
Got rid of most everything, a couple owned with others I have zip control over.. Keeping the primary as it fits needs and checks boxes, mostly for mrs be, but I love it also. So like the speed wagon, I'm just riding the storm out, waiting for the fall out

Edit to add... when they say this time is different they always assume more positive, better. This time is different, this time means worse case, no safety nets.. no conservation corps
every expert said the peak in rising price inflation was in the rear view mirror. then a new record high is released today

they all missed it.....AGAIN
 

EO 11110

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(they) love to attack gold when their paper is getting hit

strong dollar policy = code for suppression of honest money