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Foreclosures are on the rise. Here’s what that says about the housing market

Fiat Metaler

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saw an article a few days ago about white people in California moving to Mexico. It didn't mention Mexicans moving to California.
 

Casey Jones

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saw an article a few days ago about white people in California moving to Mexico. It didn't mention Mexicans moving to California.
The Narrative. Mexico is so great, all these Americans are moving there! It's so NON-WHITE, and so GOVERNMENT-FOCUSED. Tyranny is SO KEWEL.

It's The Narrative, and these news-morons can look at the million invaders coming in, demanding food, and never question the script they've been given.
 

Voodoo

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The Narrative. Mexico is so great, all these Americans are moving there! It's so NON-WHITE, and so GOVERNMENT-FOCUSED. Tyranny is SO KEWEL.

It's The Narrative, and these news-morons can look at the million invaders coming in, demanding food, and never question the script they've been given.

The irony is that the Mexican Govt is way less commie/effective than the Commiefornia Govt
 

EO 11110

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Amid surging layoffs in the real estate market, slumping homebuilder sentiment, soaring rates and plunging mortgage applications, it is no surprise that analysts expected a drop in Housing Starts and Permits in May (-1.8% MoM and -2.5% MoM respectively).

Those numbers were destroyed as Housing Starts crashed 14.4% MoM and Permits plunged 7.0% MoM.
 

Casey Jones

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like germany?
Like all of Eurostan.

Elsewhere, someone here linked to a nooze blurb from London, of how the current crop of 5-year-olds coming into one district's kindergarten classes, were not toilet trained, hadn't learned their own names, and were eating baby food and sucking on baby bottles.

Unmentioned in that PC writeup, was what KIND of English these kids were. Or if their names were all Mohammed.
 

Lancers32

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Like all of Eurostan.

Elsewhere, someone here linked to a nooze blurb from London, of how the current crop of 5-year-olds coming into one district's kindergarten classes, were not toilet trained, hadn't learned their own names, and were eating baby food and sucking on baby bottles.

Unmentioned in that PC writeup, was what KIND of English these kids were. Or if their names were all Mohammed.
Holy shit.
 

Casey Jones

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Lancers32

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This one actually was able to leave the house unassisted today.


FVYnz-WWIAIKzZw.jpg
 

nickndfl

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Like all of Eurostan.

Elsewhere, someone here linked to a nooze blurb from London, of how the current crop of 5-year-olds coming into one district's kindergarten classes, were not toilet trained, hadn't learned their own names, and were eating baby food and sucking on baby bottles.

Unmentioned in that PC writeup, was what KIND of English these kids were. Or if their names were all Mohammed.
Sandn*
 

EO 11110

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Housing market is cooling as an estimated 25% of home listings cut their asking prices: ‘We’re shifting from a real buying frenzy to much more normal conditions’​

Last Updated: June 15, 2022 at 7:56 p.m. ET

Under normal conditions, about a third of homes listed on the market for sale take a price cut before they’re sold, Simonsen explained, and when the market is hot, that drops down to 25%. This spring, however, only 14% of homes on the market took a price cut. And that’s a reflection of high demand and low inventory.


“Sellers in the last two years can overprice their home and still get offers — that condition of the frenzy is gone, so it’s a much more normal market,” Simonsen said.


With buyers slowly backing off, that percentage is now climbing, a trend also supported by research from Redfin, a real-estate brokerage. Some 21% of sellers dropped their list price during the four weeks ending June 5, which was the second-highest share on record, going back to 2015, Redin said.


Sellers will need to lower their asking price by summer’s end. “By July, expect to be back to our normal conditions nationally,” Simonsen added. “We’ve been hotter than normal for over two full years since the start of the pandemic. By August, sellers who aren’t prepared will be surprised.”
 

hoarder

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Hardly any sellers are lowering their asking prices around here. Anything half decent gets snapped up in days. 35 to 40% of buyers are paying cash.
 

Fiat Metaler

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Zillow says my house value went up by $17K in the last 30 days.

But if I was selling a house today I would price it aggressively high and if I didn't get traffic or offers then I would lower it after about 2 weeks.

The article cites Redfin which is a low fee low service real estate listing service. Its one step up from for sale by owner. If you have ever encountered FSBOs, then you know those folks usually price their homes unreasonably high.

Still, with rates above 6% and companies starting to reduce staff, even I am starting to expect softness. Aside from crazy markets like Boise, which is small and where everyone from California tried to move, look for softness first in the middle priced home. The luxury homes should consider to rise, and entry level homes are still a bargain compared to rent. The stuff in the middle, especially higher middle where it takes two breadwinners to pay the mortage - is going to be the softest.
 

EO 11110

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Hardly any sellers are lowering their asking prices around here. Anything half decent gets snapped up in days. 35 to 40% of buyers are paying cash.
like you said before --- stay long areas serving white flight. the murderous shitholes are bleeding people -- literally and figuratively
 

southfork

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.75 pop in rate means up up up for adjustables
 

hoarder

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An article in the local County newspaper quotes one of the leading brokers in the area.:
“The buyers coming here are mostly from Washington, Oregon or California as they seem to want to leave their states because of they are not happy with their government, or their area is overrun and not like it used to be,” said Judy Stang of RE/MAX Real Estate.
Note that there is no mention of Canadians. The buyers are escapees from the left coast.
 

EO 11110

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pretty good indicator that the 'average median asking price' is going to fall - unless mtg rates fall first


1655520791810.png
 

EO 11110

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#1 Stock prices have been plummeting in recent weeks, and that has resulted in almost 3 trillion dollars being erased from retirement accounts in the United States…

The U.S. stock market rout that has put U.S. equities in a bear market isn’t just reducing the net worth of billionaires like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos. It’s also taking a toll on Americans’ retirement savings, wiping out trillions of dollars in value.
The selloff has erased nearly $3 trillion from U.S. retirement accounts, according to Alicia Munnell, director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. By her calculations, 401(k) plan participants have lost about $1.4 trillion from their accounts since the end of 2021. People with IRAs — most of which are 401(k) rollovers — have lost $2 trillion this year.
#2 The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell beneath the psychologically important 30,000 barrier for the first time in more than a year on Thursday. If it cannot return to that level within the next few trading sessions, a lot of investors are really going to start to panic.

#3 The Dow is now down 19 percent from the all-time high.

#4 The S&P 500 is now down 24 percent from the all-time high.

#5 The Nasdaq is now down 34 percent from the all-time high. Just think about that for a moment. A third of the value of the Nasdaq has already been wiped out.

#6 Two-thirds of the value of all cryptocurrencies has already been wiped out since the peak of the market. Last November, the total value of all cryptocurrencies had soared past the three trillion dollar mark. As I write this article, that number has fallen to less than a trillion.

#7 This week we witnessed the fastest rise in mortgage rates since 1987. Needless to say, this is going to absolutely devastate the housing market…

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the average rate on the 30-year loan this week rose to 5.78% from 5.23%, the latest in a series of rapid increases and the biggest one-week jump since 1987. The rate is well above the 2.93% recorded just one year ago and marks the steepest level since November 2008.
#8 The largest percentage of sellers ever recorded reduced the list price on their homes during the four week period ending June 12th.

#9 In some parts of the nation, home prices have already fallen by as much as 20 percent.

#10 Compared to the same period a year ago, the total number of mortgage applications was down 52.7 percent last week.

#11 We just learned that housing starts in the U.S. fell 14.4 percent in May.

#12 The number of permits for the construction of new homes was down 7 percent in May.

#13 Wholesale prices continue to accelerate at a very alarming pace

Wholesale prices rose at a brisk pace in May as inflation pressures mounted on the U.S. economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
The producer price index, a measure of the prices paid to producers of goods and services, rose 0.8% for the month and 10.8% over the past year. The monthly rise was in line with Dow Jones estimates and a doubling of the 0.4% pace in April.
#14 The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is now projecting that economic growth during the second quarter will be 0 percent.

#15 The Philadelphia Fed Business Index came in at a negative 3.3 reading for the month of June. This represents the first contraction since the early days of the COVID pandemic.

#16 One recent survey discovered that small business owners are “feeling their gloomiest in nearly five decades”.

#17 At this point, 59 percent of manufacturers in the United States believe that a recession is coming.

#18 Bloomberg is projecting that the probability of a recession during the next 24 months is 98.5 percent.
 

Uglytruth

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Friend just sold his wife's mothers house in Cleveland area. Asked 230K. 10 people walked through on the first day. 5 bids. 249.9K bought it. Cash buyer. Backup was 245K cash buyer.
 

Casey Jones

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Friend just sold his wife's mothers house in Cleveland area. Asked 230K. 10 people walked through on the first day. 5 bids. 249.9K bought it. Cash buyer. Backup was 245K cash buyer.
Jay-zhus.

I sold a house in a desirable suburb of Cleveland, 2009. Market value was $150k. I settled for $115k - because the house was sitting empty while I was working 70 hours a week in Michigan. And the taxes were crushing.

I keep landing on my feet, but I keep hurting from the falls...
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Ohhh fun NE Ohio stories, built a dutch colonial 1800 sq ft w/basement in 1978, sold it for 42,500 in 1979. Been completely updated and a 24 x 36 garage added... closed last week for 180,000, 4x not including improvements in 43 years... weird part is their taxes were 300 higher than my new 750k+ place in SC...

Remember the pipeline gents, todays closings were 6 month to two years ago dreamers... problem isn't what's left dropping out of the high priced pipe, its the folks entering the pipe now can't afford to push the bar higher. Things that don't go higher eventually go lower. My inbox is full of RE guru's offering to coach me up, on buyer controlled market conversations and objections, basically how to skin the sellers 101.. talking heads pretending to know what we here have already figured out. 85% of the RE agents will be last to know what's coming. Easy to be blind to the obvious if you depend on the flow to pay for your Mercedes, health coach, and life coach. Gonna take skils in this next phase, to navigate the snakes and crocs in this river, think I'll just cherry pick and mostly sit this one out.

When learning to drive my dad would constantly repeat... "both hands 10 and 2, keep your eyes high on the road". IOW don't look over the hood of your car, look long and anticipate. Works great for the RE market as well. It'll happen faster in less desirable markets, but there is no exclusions on this ride...
 
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EO 11110

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early in this thread i mused about being too late to sell a lot that i bought this year. i did some improvements and put it up for sale. a few inquiries, but no offers. i think my worry is being confirmed. after improvements i've got about 53k in it. it's on the market for 120k. beautiful large waterfront homesite on a bayou - large oaks, water and shore birds everywhere, city services available. no takers. my dream of a quick flip is doubtful. i'm okay holding it long term - think it was way undervalued when i bought it

can trump 2024 turn this disaster around?
 

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EO,
Yours is a really good example, lots and land have increased during the recent market explosion, but not in lock step or nearly the same level as single family detached. The experts say that is due to inability or super high requirements to borrow on vacant land / lots. Now if you had a building loan they often allowed lot purchase as part of the process. They still normally required a large down against lot to make sure the lender was covered as they really do not want to repo lots or land. Same way, while condos increased with a few exceptions not as high as single family. High cost of Hoa's and stories of large assessments have slowed the condos buyers. The vid, didn't help as living close together has not been viewed as optimal.
 

Lancers32

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I live in Durham NC close to the Raleigh border. They say there is a housing shortage down here. Maybe but I am seeing an incredible amount of new construction going up. Most of the developments are ranches with what appears to be 5 foot side yards. For the most part these houses are on the small side. 400-450K for shoe boxes.
 

Uglytruth

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I live in Durham NC close to the Raleigh border. They say there is a housing shortage down here. Maybe but I am seeing an incredible amount of new construction going up. Most of the developments are ranches with what appears to be 5 foot side yards. For the most part these houses are on the small side. 400-450K for shoe boxes.
That debt is the banksters lifeblood.
 

EO 11110

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some interesting stats/trends - including a historic high in years living in same house

the market has seized up under high sticker prices and high mtg rates


Chief Economist Analysis: Market Potential for Existing-Home Sales down 10.5 percent year over year, but remains 2.5 percent above pre-pandemic level of May 2019

"The market potential for existing-home sales in May fell 2 percent to 5.62 million at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), compared with last month, and is 10.5 percent lower than one year ago," said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. "Yet, the market potential for home sales remains 2.5 percent higher than May 2019, before the pandemic hit.

"Home purchase demand is declining as mortgage rates rise alongside still-strong house price appreciation. While a decline in demand may reduce the pace of sales and lead to an increase in inventory, existing homeowners are less inclined to sell their homes as mortgage rates rise," said Fleming. "Historically, nearly 90 percent of total inventory is existing-home inventory, and existing homeowners are staying put. Increasing the supply of homes for sale is key to slowing house price growth and restoring balance to the housing market."

Existing Homeowners, the Immovable Object

"The amount of time a typical homeowner lives in their home increased 2 percent from one year ago, and 0.4 percent compared with last month, which was the largest month-over-month increase since August 2020 and contributed to a loss of 15,500 potential home sales compared with last month," said Fleming. "Since existing homeowners supply the majority of the homes for sale, and homeowners are staying put longer, the housing market faces an ongoing supply shortage.

"Before the housing market crash in 2007, the average length of time someone lived in their home was approximately five years. During the aftermath of the housing market crisis between 2008 and 2016, the average length of time someone lived in their home grew to approximately eight years," said Fleming. "The most recent data shows that the average length of time someone lives in their home reached a historic high of 10.6 years in May 2022."

Two Trends Limiting Housing Supply and Housing Market Normalization

"Two trends are locking homeowners in place, preventing much-needed housing supply from reaching the market and helping tilt the market toward buyers. Many existing homeowners are rate locked-in to historically low, sub-3 percent mortgage rates, and now that rates are rising, there is a financial disincentive to sell their homes and buy a new home at a higher mortgage rate," said Fleming. "The golden handcuffs of low mortgage rates prevent more supply from reaching the market.

"Seniors choosing to age in place, rather than downsize or move to another home, further limits housing supply. A 2019 study from Freddie Mac shows that if adults born between 1931-1959 behaved like earlier generations, they would have released nearly 1.6 million additional housing units to the market by 2018," said Fleming. "As seniors continue to choose to age in place, there will be fewer existing homes available for sale. And, with many of these senior homeowners also locked into historically low mortgage rates and sitting on historically high levels of equity, it’s more likely they will renovate the home they currently own than list their home for sale and move."

What Does it all Mean for the Housing Market?

"A moderation of house price growth will signal that balance is returning to the housing market. Yet, more housing supply is critical to meaningful moderation in house price appreciation. While rising mortgage rates will continue to cool demand, it will also keep existing homeowners locked into their homes," said Fleming. "You can’t buy what’s not for sale -- and existing homeowners have little incentive to relieve the supply pressure, keeping a lid on housing market normalization."

Next Release

The next Potential Home Sales Model will be released on July 19, 2022 with June 2022 data.

About the Potential Home Sales Model

Potential home sales measures existing-homes sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate based on the historical relationship between existing-home sales and U.S. population demographic data, homeowner tenure, house-buying power in the U.S. economy, price trends in the U.S. housing market, and conditions in the financial market. When the actual level of existing-home sales are significantly above potential home sales, the pace of turnover is not supported by market fundamentals and there is an increased likelihood of a market correction.

Conversely, seasonally adjusted, annualized rates of actual existing-home sales below the level of potential existing-home sales indicate market turnover is underperforming the rate fundamentally supported by the current conditions. Actual seasonally adjusted annualized existing-home sales may exceed or fall short of the potential rate of sales for a variety of reasons, including non-traditional market conditions, policy constraints and market participant behavior. Recent potential home sale estimates are subject to revision to reflect the most up-to-date information available on the economy, housing market and financial conditions. The Potential Home Sales model is published prior to the National Association of Realtors’ Existing-Home Sales report each month.


About First American

First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF)
is a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 130 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry.
 

EO 11110

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mbs pipeline dried up?


JPMorgan Fires Hundreds Of Mortgage Bankers As Housing Market Breaks​


Late last week we warned that according to real-time indicators, such as soaring mortgage rates and collapsing demand, a housing market crash appeared inevitable. Today we got the clearest sign that the banks agree when out of the blue - or rather out of the "hurricane" - JPMorgan announced it was cutting over a thousand home-lending employees and reassigning hundreds more after soaring interest rates dried up mortgage demand.

Jamie Dimon pulled off his best Jean-Baptiste Emmanuel Zorg impression when the bank decided that more than 1,000 workers will be affected by the slowdown in housing, with roughly half fired and the other half moved to other (less paying) divisions within the bank, Bloomberg reports.
 

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Ok, back to looking into the void... after last weeks increase these same rates bumped up close to 6.375% for 30 fixed. Stayed there a couple of days.. notice them creeping back down to these from yesterday. All very weird guys, bigger story here just not enough data yet to interpret.. but it appears rate increase didn't take and some lenders are jumping on the sword

Screen Shot 2022-06-23 at 8.45.13 AM.png
 

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Ok, back to looking into the void... after last weeks increase these same rates bumped up close to 6.375% for 30 fixed. Stayed there a couple of days.. notice them creeping back down to these from yesterday. All very weird guys, bigger story here just not enough data yet to interpret.. but it appears rate increase didn't take and some lenders are jumping on the sword

View attachment 264980
jumbos usually have a higher rate. why has that flipped? is it the mbs market valuing them higher?

the arms are still a great rate. guess we cant blame the housing market problems on int rates
 

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Ok, back to looking into the void... after last weeks increase these same rates bumped up close to 6.375% for 30 fixed. Stayed there a couple of days.. notice them creeping back down to these from yesterday. All very weird guys, bigger story here just not enough data yet to interpret.. but it appears rate increase didn't take and some lenders are jumping on the sword

View attachment 264980

Just more indication that business is Very slow. I am puzzled by why jumbo rates are a full point less than smaller loans. That makes no sense as they had always been higher than the conforming rates.
 

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Just more indication that business is Very slow. I am puzzled by why jumbo rates are a full point less than smaller loans. That makes no sense as they had always been higher than the conforming rates.
my best guess is credit quality -- maybe jumbos have lower default rate - so the mbs buyers are willing to pay more?
 

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jumbos usually have a higher rate. why has that flipped? is it the mbs market valuing them higher?

the arms are still a great rate. guess we cant blame the housing market problems on int rates

Disagree on the ARMS. That is a Terrible option, I don't care what the rate says your risk is Sky high. If you want to risk all your equity and down payment on the central banker, well good luck.
 

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my best guess is credit quality -- maybe jumbos have lower default rate - so the mbs buyers are willing to pay more?

It was always the opposite because conforming loans have the government backing the loans. Jumbo go to the private markets. So, the only thing I can think is that they do make more on each one because it's a large loan. But that means they have to be taking on more risk. Perhaps there is still a decent market selling these jumbo's to suckers like state pension plans.
 

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Disagree on the ARMS. That is a Terrible option, I don't care what the rate says your risk is Sky high. If you want to risk all your equity and down payment on the central banker, well good luck.
some arms in that chart are fixed for the first 15 years. that gives one 15 years to refi. a good bet, because frbny prefers to keep rates as close to zero as possible for (the banker) bonus pools.

that 4.x rate for 15 years is a GREAT deal -- and then have the option to refi when fixed rates fall again to 4 or 3 or 2
 

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jumbos usually have a higher rate. why has that flipped? is it the mbs market valuing them higher?

the arms are still a great rate. guess we cant blame the housing market problems on int rates
Thanks EO & Voodoo,
Was hoping that would jump off the page to somebody.... Yes Jumbotrons were always 1% or more higher.. a natural limiting factor on the top end. Now it is being encouraged, which is almost criminal in my book. This is a direct hit on the former middle class, the below 647k crowd. They are loading the boat with high priced spread, GEE this just has to be a good idea
 
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Just more indication that business is Very slow. I am puzzled by why jumbo rates are a full point less than smaller loans. That makes no sense as they had always been higher than the conforming rates.
Every meeting with a lender has me asking that question, the brokers just give me this glazed look and say it is what it is. The larger the deal the bigger the commission.... to which i remind them it's illegal to smoke dope in SC, but soon to be highly encouraged