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Foreclosures are on the rise. Here’s what that says about the housing market

EO 11110

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There is no one to buy those MBS in small quantities, let alone the ginormous quantities the Fed has.
income funds buy them. frbny in there buying artificially lowers price - so demand for mbs by real buyers will go up if the fed stops it's b.s. and prices get better
 

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The entire world economy is being held up by the FED as far as I can tell. ECB is still negative, and from the looks of thing INFLATION is out of control in Europe and only getting worse. The Euro will be on par with the US very soon. In 2008 the Euro was 1.6~ to the dollar. It has fallen, and will continue.

Taking a look at the markets in the US, Friday before the 4th and today were a complete 180 from where they should have been going. You don't think that the US Treasury in conjunction with the FED are playing a game, one where we lose and the billionaires win.

We are being played, and will continue until the FED is no longer in charge.
 

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EO 11110

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The government does not even belong in this sphere.
indeed. neat how they made the board a part of gov -- but the federal reserve banks are all privately owned

this gives cover for people to claim that 'the fed' is part of gov
 

Uglytruth

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The Euro will be on par with the US very soon.
I see that as a way to usher in a world digital currency. Been saying somehow they need to get currencies to par somehow.
The problem is the BRICS are heading another way. One backed by immoral degenerates and one by gold...... Think about it.
 

Lancers32

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Big rush to move to the Middle South for some time now really. Hot as hell down here for quite a few months. I can't imagine what life might be like if we run into problems running air conditioners. Might want to find a more temperate place if the shit hits the fan. It is all good until it isn't.
 

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indeed. neat how they made the board a part of gov -- but the federal reserve banks are all privately owned

this gives cover for people to claim that 'the fed' is part of gov

This is all true but its a red herring.

By true I mean that the Federal Reserve System is a cartel owned by its member banks that are owned not by the goverment but private individuals; most trade on public stock exchanges but even the companies themselves don't know who truly owns them because the SEC's proxy rules allow for nominee ownership. This is true even after the Patriot Act, so hiding who owns the banks (and all other public companies) must be a very important goverment purpose.

Its also true that the Fed serves several government functions. It is the plumbing for the banking system, delivering cash, clearing checks, processing wires, etc. It serves as regulator for Fed Member banks, the same as the OCC. And the Fed Board sets short term interest rates, the same as the old Politburo.

The red herring is that these are not the true power (except in part the power to set rates). The true power is being able to loan yourself money. Its being able to change rate policy. Its being able to bail yourself out.

Imagine how rich you could get if you went to a casino and had unlimited credit; you would make bets and let them ride until they were winnners, and then cash out while you are ahead. If the casino makes a little interest on such loans, you are very happy to pay them over to Uncle because the true value of owning the system is the unlimited credit and power to control the money supply, not the profits made by the constituent banks.

As a tiny example of this power, the Fed can provide scholarships to economics Ph.Ds and university departments, provided they agree with Keynsian economics. It takes a relatively small aggregate investment in such scholarships to complete own academia. The money for these scholarships does not come from bank profits but rather is conjured from thin air.
 

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po·lit·bu·ro
/ˈpälitˌbyo͝orō/
Learn to pronounce

noun

  1. the principal policymaking committee of a communist party.
    • the principal policymaking committee in the former Soviet Union, founded in 1917.
      noun: Politburo
 

EO 11110

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1657494573028.png


1657494654749.png
 

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So that's interesting... The affordability peaked almost 1-2 years Before the housing "crisis". Keep that in mind folks.
 

Usury

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Ehhh…a LOT of folks wait to put their house on the market after the end of the school year. Call me when they are dropping prices and fire-selling.
 

Usury

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We can look at what the fed wants to admit to here. Summation on mortgage backed securities held is
2 trillion 707 billion 446 million held on June second. 2 trillion 720 billion 563 million held on June 30th.
IIRC in the past when they were going to wind down QE they indicated they were no longer buy new MBS, just reinvesting P&I from existing securities….which means they’ll continue to grow infinitely without further printing/investment due to the power of compounding interest.
 

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Ehhh…a LOT of folks wait to put their house on the market after the end of the school year. Call me when they are dropping prices and fire-selling.

They are in many markets already. However, our tiny area just put up stupid high record Average and Median sale prices. Inventory is building now so I imagine it will drop back to more normal ranges quickly.
 

Usury

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They are in many markets already. However, our tiny area just put up stupid high record Average and Median sale prices. Inventory is building now so I imagine it will drop back to more normal ranges quickly.
What markets would those be? I underwrite appraisals across the US in multiple states and haven’t really come across that yet. Not saying it hasn’t happened, just curious where and real evidence/source.
 

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What markets would those be? I underwrite appraisals across the US in multiple states and haven’t really come across that yet. Not saying it hasn’t happened, just curious where and real evidence/source.

There are lots of areas that are starting to drop List prices. Suburbs of Austin, Boise, Phoenix Az. and some parts of Florida now.


One of the problems with the way appraisals are designed is they are backward looking. By definition using Closed Sales means the comparison is lagging and by up to 6 months to a year. They are not a forecasting tool by any means.
 
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Some people get WAAAAY too fixated on PRICE. If the price ain't moving they ain't caring. Which is just wrong and how you buy high and sell low.
 

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If you want a specific location you gotta pay the piper whenever it becomes available. Prime oceanfront is never cheap.
 

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If you want a specific location you gotta pay the piper whenever it becomes available. Prime oceanfront is never cheap.

So they say... betcha some shiny I will have my pick in a few years. Now, I will not limit my search to some specific swanky area but the idea is still there. I actually like a lakefront better than oceanfront. Not really a fan of the ocean views. Ok, so it's blue, great.
 

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The Deal Is Off: Home Sales Are Getting Canceled at the Highest Rate Since the Start of the Pandemic


Some homebuyers are backing out of deals as a slowing housing market gives them more room to negotiate. Others are being forced to renege on contracts because higher mortgage rates mean some homes are no longer affordable.​

Nationwide, roughly 60,000 home-purchase agreements fell through in June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage on record with the exception of March and April 2020, when the housing market all but ground to a halt due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. It compares with 12.7% a month earlier and 11.2% a year earlier.

deals-falling-thru-chart-1024x710.png


This is according to a Redfin analysis of MLS data going back through 2017. Please note that homes that fell out of contract during a given month didn’t necessarily go under contract the same month. For example, a home that fell out of contract in June could have gone under contract in May.

“The slowdown in housing-market competition is giving homebuyers room to negotiate, which is one reason more of them are backing out of deals,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Buyers are increasingly keeping rather than waiving inspection and appraisal contingencies. That gives them the flexibility to call the deal off if issues arise during the homebuying process.”

Marr continued: “Rising mortgage rates are also forcing some buyers to cancel home purchases. If rates were at 5% when you made an offer, but reached 5.8% by the time the deal was set to close, you may no longer be able to afford that home or you may no longer qualify for a loan.”

The housing market has cooled in recent weeks as the Federal Reserve has boosted interest rates in an effort to quell inflation. That has given house hunters more freedom to seek concessions from sellers, but higher rates also make housing less affordable. Buyers did get a reprieve this past week, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.3% in the largest one-week drop since 2008.

“When mortgage rates shot up to almost 6% in June, we saw a number of buyers back out of deals,” said Lindsay Garcia, a Redfin real estate agent in Miami. “Some had to bow out because they could no longer get a loan due to the jump in rates. Buyers are also more skittish than usual due to economic uncertainty.”

Metro-Level Summary: June 2022​

The table below measures pending sales that fell out of contract as a percentage of overall pending sales, and is sorted from highest to lowest. A metro must have had at least 1,000 pending-home sales in June 2022 to be included.

Search:
U.S. Metro AreaPending Sales that Fell Out of Contract as % of Overall Pending Sales
Las Vegas, NV27.2%
Lakeland, FL26.7%
Cape Coral, FL25.7%
Port St. Lucie, FL25.7%
Jacksonville, FL25.3%
New Orleans, LA25.3%
Palm Bay, FL24.9%
Orlando, FL24.5%
Phoenix, AZ24.5%
Crestview, FL23.5%
Deltona, FL23.1%
Tampa, FL23.0%
Houston, TX22.9%
Salt Lake City, UT22.4%
Baton Rouge, LA22.2%
West Palm Beach, FL22.1%
Atlanta, GA22.0%
Fort Lauderdale, FL22.0%
Pensacola, FL21.9%
Miami, FL21.5%
Boise, ID21.5%
Tucson, AZ21.1%
North Port, FL20.9%
Riverside, CA20.9%
San Antonio, TX20.3%
Oklahoma City, OK20.2%
Dallas, TX19.9%
Sacramento, CA19.8%
San Diego, CA19.5%
Fort Worth, TX18.9%
Gary, IN18.8%
Memphis, TN18.3%
Anaheim, CA18.3%
Tulsa, OK18.1%
Tacoma, WA18.0%
Denver, CO18.0%
Albuquerque, NM17.9%
Austin, TX17.9%
Little Rock, AR17.8%
Los Angeles, CA17.7%
Myrtle Beach, SC17.4%
Cleveland, OH17.3%
Louisville, KY17.2%
Chattanooga, TN16.8%
Fayetteville, AR16.7%
Knoxville, TN16.7%
Chicago, IL16.7%
Birmingham, AL16.6%
Portland, OR16.6%
Detroit, MI16.6%
Nashville, TN16.3%
Elgin, IL16.3%
Dayton, OH16.0%
Lake County, IL15.7%
Albany, NY15.3%
Virginia Beach, VA14.9%
Pittsburgh, PA14.8%
New Haven, CT14.8%
Camden, NJ14.7%
Akron, OH14.5%
Grand Rapids, MI14.2%
Charleston, SC14.1%
Indianapolis, IN13.8%
Columbus, OH13.6%
Greenville, SC13.4%
Bridgeport, CT13.3%
Des Moines, IA13.0%
Warren, MI12.7%
Hartford, CT12.5%
Winston-Salem, NC12.5%
Cincinnati, OH12.3%
St. Louis, MO12.2%
Baltimore, MD12.0%
Kansas City, MO11.9%
Worcester, MA11.9%
Charlotte, NC11.6%
Washington, D.C.11.4%
Philadelphia, PA10.9%
Richmond, VA10.8%
Seattle, WA10.5%
Providence, RI10.5%
Fayetteville, NC10.1%
Greensboro, NC10.0%
San Jose, CA9.7%
Boston, MA9.6%
Colorado Springs, CO9.0%
Oakland, CA8.9%
Milwaukee, WI8.9%
Minneapolis, MN8.8%
New Brunswick, NJ8.8%
Frederick, MD8.3%
Portland, ME8.0%
Raleigh, NC7.0%
New York, NY6.8%
Buffalo, NY6.7%
Allentown, PA6.4%
Montgomery County, PA6.0%
Nassau County, NY5.5%
San Francisco, CA5.5%
Omaha, NE5.3%
Rochester, NY4.6%
Newark, NJ2.6%
 

EO 11110

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I actually like a lakefront better than oceanfront. Not really a fan of the ocean views. Ok, so it's blue, great.
for my money bay front is where it's at. couple of weeks ago, fishing in my backyard, hooked into a MONSTER. damn thing stripped out all of my line down to the knot. a second later the line went slack. reeled in my lure and the hook on the leadhead broke off. that's what i get for buying cheap gear on amzn

the worst part is that i never saw it. could have been anything - my two best guesses are bull redfish or stingray
 

Usury

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There are lots of areas that are starting to drop List prices. Suburbs of Austin, Boise, Phoenix Az. and some parts of Florida now.


One of the problems with the way appraisals are designed is they are backward looking. By definition using Closed Sales means the comparison is lagging and by up to 6 months to a year. They are not a forecasting tool by any means.
The principle of substitution means that something is only worth its equivalent substitute. So existing listings and pending sales are also considered as a ceiling when completing an appraisal report….not ONLY closed sales.
 

Usury

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The Deal Is Off: Home Sales Are Getting Canceled at the Highest Rate Since the Start of the Pandemic


Some homebuyers are backing out of deals as a slowing housing market gives them more room to negotiate. Others are being forced to renege on contracts because higher mortgage rates mean some homes are no longer affordable.​

Nationwide, roughly 60,000 home-purchase agreements fell through in June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s the highest percentage on record with the exception of March and April 2020, when the housing market all but ground to a halt due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. It compares with 12.7% a month earlier and 11.2% a year earlier.

deals-falling-thru-chart-1024x710.png


This is according to a Redfin analysis of MLS data going back through 2017. Please note that homes that fell out of contract during a given month didn’t necessarily go under contract the same month. For example, a home that fell out of contract in June could have gone under contract in May.

“The slowdown in housing-market competition is giving homebuyers room to negotiate, which is one reason more of them are backing out of deals,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Buyers are increasingly keeping rather than waiving inspection and appraisal contingencies. That gives them the flexibility to call the deal off if issues arise during the homebuying process.”

Marr continued: “Rising mortgage rates are also forcing some buyers to cancel home purchases. If rates were at 5% when you made an offer, but reached 5.8% by the time the deal was set to close, you may no longer be able to afford that home or you may no longer qualify for a loan.”

The housing market has cooled in recent weeks as the Federal Reserve has boosted interest rates in an effort to quell inflation. That has given house hunters more freedom to seek concessions from sellers, but higher rates also make housing less affordable. Buyers did get a reprieve this past week, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.3% in the largest one-week drop since 2008.

“When mortgage rates shot up to almost 6% in June, we saw a number of buyers back out of deals,” said Lindsay Garcia, a Redfin real estate agent in Miami. “Some had to bow out because they could no longer get a loan due to the jump in rates. Buyers are also more skittish than usual due to economic uncertainty.”

Metro-Level Summary: June 2022​

The table below measures pending sales that fell out of contract as a percentage of overall pending sales, and is sorted from highest to lowest. A metro must have had at least 1,000 pending-home sales in June 2022 to be included.

Search:
U.S. Metro AreaPending Sales that Fell Out of Contract as % of Overall Pending Sales
Las Vegas, NV27.2%
Lakeland, FL26.7%
Cape Coral, FL25.7%
Port St. Lucie, FL25.7%
Jacksonville, FL25.3%
New Orleans, LA25.3%
Palm Bay, FL24.9%
Orlando, FL24.5%
Phoenix, AZ24.5%
Crestview, FL23.5%
Deltona, FL23.1%
Tampa, FL23.0%
Houston, TX22.9%
Salt Lake City, UT22.4%
Baton Rouge, LA22.2%
West Palm Beach, FL22.1%
Atlanta, GA22.0%
Fort Lauderdale, FL22.0%
Pensacola, FL21.9%
Miami, FL21.5%
Boise, ID21.5%
Tucson, AZ21.1%
North Port, FL20.9%
Riverside, CA20.9%
San Antonio, TX20.3%
Oklahoma City, OK20.2%
Dallas, TX19.9%
Sacramento, CA19.8%
San Diego, CA19.5%
Fort Worth, TX18.9%
Gary, IN18.8%
Memphis, TN18.3%
Anaheim, CA18.3%
Tulsa, OK18.1%
Tacoma, WA18.0%
Denver, CO18.0%
Albuquerque, NM17.9%
Austin, TX17.9%
Little Rock, AR17.8%
Los Angeles, CA17.7%
Myrtle Beach, SC17.4%
Cleveland, OH17.3%
Louisville, KY17.2%
Chattanooga, TN16.8%
Fayetteville, AR16.7%
Knoxville, TN16.7%
Chicago, IL16.7%
Birmingham, AL16.6%
Portland, OR16.6%
Detroit, MI16.6%
Nashville, TN16.3%
Elgin, IL16.3%
Dayton, OH16.0%
Lake County, IL15.7%
Albany, NY15.3%
Virginia Beach, VA14.9%
Pittsburgh, PA14.8%
New Haven, CT14.8%
Camden, NJ14.7%
Akron, OH14.5%
Grand Rapids, MI14.2%
Charleston, SC14.1%
Indianapolis, IN13.8%
Columbus, OH13.6%
Greenville, SC13.4%
Bridgeport, CT13.3%
Des Moines, IA13.0%
Warren, MI12.7%
Hartford, CT12.5%
Winston-Salem, NC12.5%
Cincinnati, OH12.3%
St. Louis, MO12.2%
Baltimore, MD12.0%
Kansas City, MO11.9%
Worcester, MA11.9%
Charlotte, NC11.6%
Washington, D.C.11.4%
Philadelphia, PA10.9%
Richmond, VA10.8%
Seattle, WA10.5%
Providence, RI10.5%
Fayetteville, NC10.1%
Greensboro, NC10.0%
San Jose, CA9.7%
Boston, MA9.6%
Colorado Springs, CO9.0%
Oakland, CA8.9%
Milwaukee, WI8.9%
Minneapolis, MN8.8%
New Brunswick, NJ8.8%
Frederick, MD8.3%
Portland, ME8.0%
Raleigh, NC7.0%
New York, NY6.8%
Buffalo, NY6.7%
Allentown, PA6.4%
Montgomery County, PA6.0%
Nassau County, NY5.5%
San Francisco, CA5.5%
Omaha, NE5.3%
Rochester, NY4.6%
Newark, NJ2.6%
Ironically that chart looks a lot like the global warming alarmists chart…..OMG THERES A LITTLE JUMP HERE….LETS FOCUS ON THE ONLY AND BLOW IT OUT OF PROPORTION.

Of course it all could be the start of a decline too. Something has to give sometime…and the fed seems hell-bent on controlling inflation by adjusting the demand side via a depression. Typical leftists….their answer is to create more shortages but we won’t realize it because we’ll all be too broke to care. If nobody had a job it won’t matter how expensive housing or fuel are, right?

at the same time there’s still so much money out there with still so much unfulfilled demand and increasing supply shortages that I don’t think we’revon The verge of a housing crash. Who knows though….may be an everything crash.
 

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at the same time there’s still so much money out there with still so much unfulfilled demand and increasing supply shortages that I don’t think we’revon The verge of a housing crash.
with the insane amount of money/inflation out there, house prices have to appreciate double digits just to break even

or putting it another way --- a housing price cut of 10 percent is really a 20 plus percent loss. the headline numbers will ignore inflation -- but gim2 wont put up with that deceit
 
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Voodoo

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The principle of substitution means that something is only worth its equivalent substitute. So existing listings and pending sales are also considered as a ceiling when completing an appraisal report….not ONLY closed sales.

Full Disclosure, I am an Appraiser.

Those are not allowed by most lenders and only as additional comps, which most don't include. Using Listings is pretty useless as it can help show you a ceiling and price drops but you don't know if it's still overpriced. It still doesn't change the fundamental data problems. It is a lagging product and works pretty well in stable to trending markets but not real well in bubbles. Just look at stocks and how much "value" they can gain or lose in a day...

The slow nature of real estate has really helped the market. This lower volatility helps stabilize the market.
 

EO 11110

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some guy on tv said that the mix of buyers/refinancers in the market has changed. the financially astute/higher credit ratings have pulled back.

this leaves lenders with a pool of lesser qualified buyers. the exception to this is people relocating (from communist hellholes)
 

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The principle of substitution means that something is only worth its equivalent substitute. So existing listings and pending sales are also considered as a ceiling when completing an appraisal report….not ONLY closed sales.

And the "principle of substitution" yeah that is worth just as much as most textbooks... IE almost nothing.

I mean what does that even mean? Gold is only worth an equivalent of gold? It's just made up bullcrap to try and justify the process.
 

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some guy on tv said that the mix of buyers/refinancers in the market has changed. the financially astute/higher credit ratings have pulled back.

this leaves lenders with a pool of lesser qualified buyers. the exception to this is people relocating (from communist hellholes)

Well that defines our market pretty well. It's really easy to forecast because they are sloooow. Like 6-9 months behind the hot markets. I had expected it to slow with the rising rates but at the low end of the market the interest rates don't matter as much. The insanely high taxes (similar to Ca and NJ) have held values down a long time.
 

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And the "principle of substitution" yeah that is worth just as much as most textbooks... IE almost nothing.

I mean what does that even mean? Gold is only worth an equivalent of gold? It's just made up bullcrap to try and justify the process.
Well no it’s pretty sound. Basically it means that most would not pay $500K for your house if they see others like it for sale for $450K. So your house can’t be worth more than alternatives readily available. Therefore it takes into account falling market price listings.

Although it seems that not every appraiser understands it or applies it appropriately though…that’s why we have other tools to look for listings ourselves.
 

Usury

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some guy on tv said that the mix of buyers/refinancers in the market has changed. the financially astute/higher credit ratings have pulled back.

this leaves lenders with a pool of lesser qualified buyers. the exception to this is people relocating (from communist hellholes)
I have noticed this as well.
 

Usury

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Full Disclosure, I am an Appraiser.

Those are not allowed by most lenders and only as additional comps, which most don't include. Using Listings is pretty useless as it can help show you a ceiling and price drops but you don't know if it's still overpriced. It still doesn't change the fundamental data problems. It is a lagging product and works pretty well in stable to trending markets but not real well in bubbles. Just look at stocks and how much "value" they can gain or lose in a day...

The slow nature of real estate has really helped the market. This lower volatility helps stabilize the market.
You just made my case then…as we both said, it sets a ceiling and CURRENTLY those listings are still higher. Like I said at the beginning, call me when peeps are cutting prices so much that we are seeing actual declines contracted. When that happens if you are ignoring those listings, then you will be in violation of USPAP standards and fail to provide a valid professional opinion of value.
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Cool, the gangs all here... fiats a banker, vd an appraiser, urs an undertaker, and i'm an agent... so all the different facets and no consensus on where its going... Sounds like an average day in the world of real property...
 

EO 11110

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Cool, the gangs all here... fiats a banker, vd an appraiser, urs an undertaker, and i'm an agent... so all the different facets and no consensus on where its going... Sounds like an average day in the world of real property...
i would add our investors to your gang. we also make money in RE
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Amen EO... everyone has a piece of the puzzle, what's really cool is that all of us has strong feelings as to direction and outcome. Different geographic areas, different backgrounds and different opinions...

It's not about being right.. it's about staying upright..
 

Usury

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I wouldn’t say my feelings are “strong” either direction. At this point NOTHING would surprise me.
 

Voodoo

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You just made my case then…as we both said, it sets a ceiling and CURRENTLY those listings are still higher. Like I said at the beginning, call me when peeps are cutting prices so much that we are seeing actual declines contracted. When that happens if you are ignoring those listings, then you will be in violation of USPAP standards and fail to provide a valid professional opinion of value.

Lol, listings are not facts and are not even talked about in USPAP. But we both know USPAP was just created to let whom ever off if they want or ruin someone if the banks desire. They are nothing more than trying to buy insurance through middlemen they think are lackeys.. All we are supposed to do is analyze the market.

USPAP is just more communism via Licensing that is destroying a profession. Like the AMA and licensing did to doctors 100 years ago and so on and so forth.
 
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