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Foreclosures are on the rise. Here’s what that says about the housing market

Voodoo

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Well no it’s pretty sound. Basically it means that most would not pay $500K for your house if they see others like it for sale for $450K. So your house can’t be worth more than alternatives readily available. Therefore it takes into account falling market price listings.

Although it seems that not every appraiser understands it or applies it appropriately though…that’s why we have other tools to look for listings ourselves.

It's called competition... no need to create more psedu-science to try and justify the process.

Houses are unique by their nature and are not fungible commodities... though they do break down to 5 or 6 variables that the market tends to value.

And even if you gave a dissertation on the value of say GOLD today, it would tell you very little for the value of gold in a month and absolutely nothing about the value of GOLD in 5 years.
 

Voodoo

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Cool, the gangs all here... fiats a banker, vd an appraiser, urs an undertaker, and i'm an agent... so all the different facets and no consensus on where its going... Sounds like an average day in the world of real property...

And I'm still the grumpy old man going to ruin all your payday's.... Real Estate is a tough market because it's all Unique (although I do envy/pity the person working subdivisions with little boxes on the hillside all the same). Every location is unique, data is sparse especially in a rural market like mine, regulations are stupid and insane due to the commie takeovers, interest rates set at a whim, land values really drive things but are mostly hidden, taxation differences that fall right to the payment but for which are hard to account, and probably many other variables.
 
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Voodoo

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You just made my case then…as we both said, it sets a ceiling and CURRENTLY those listings are still higher. Like I said at the beginning, call me when peeps are cutting prices so much that we are seeing actual declines contracted. When that happens if you are ignoring those listings, then you will be in violation of USPAP standards and fail to provide a valid professional opinion of value.

Here is another BIG problem with the design of appraisals. I can find MANY Large price declines in one individual market. BUT, real estate prices seem to be set like many markets by the MARGINAL buyer/seller. Primarily the buyers IMO. So even if there are many listings and, like the videos I showed, have >10% of Listings with big price cuts, the "market" can still be heading higher because that has not reached the Marginal buyer yet.

I just clicked on a random Listing in say Boise Id (not close to me). It took me the fourth try to find one with a big price drop... Cut the price 50 grand (7%) with only 18 days on market. So I would probably have to say the market is steady but that is because the three choices allowed are stupid and far too basic as well as undefined. It's not until the marginal buyer sees the change that the "market" changes.
 

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And I'm still the grumpy old man going to ruin all your payday's.... Real Estate is a tough market because it's all Unique (although I do envy/pity the person working subdivisions with little boxes on the hillside all the same). Every location is unique, data is sparse especially in a rural market like mine, regulations are stupid and insane due to the commie takeovers, interest rates set at a whim, land values really drive things but are mostly hidden, taxation differences that fall right to the payment but for which are hard to account, and probably many other variables.
Hey VD,
Naw, appraisers don't ruin my day, unless VA or FHA, you give me a bad number and I'll order another appraisal. Take another pull at the lever... here in SC they had the brilliant idea to go to a round robin appraiser assignment system. Doing 2008 post mortem they determined that relationships between mortgage brokers using the same appraisers, deal after deal, had skewed market values. So now when you order an appraisal you get assigned from a pool, which contains all actives in our state. Now that is the rub area experience does make a difference, approximate value might be able to be determined from afar, but real hard specific value needs more local flavor and eyes to look out for local known issues and or benefits. Best case example here, two homes across the street from each other in an executive neighborhood, similar size and age, both extremely well kept and up to date. One is priced four million higher than the other ....why? Because the higher home has view up the harbor and a 40' mooring dock with a 30 foot lift at the end... how do you put a value on dock and view... ? It's really difficult if you live a 150 miles away...

So nope appraisal is what it is... but don't get me started on undertakers... er I mean underwriting..
 

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Hey VD,
Naw, appraisers don't ruin my day, unless VA or FHA, you give me a bad number and I'll order another appraisal. Take another pull at the lever... here in SC they had the brilliant idea to go to a round robin appraiser assignment system. Doing 2008 post mortem they determined that relationships between mortgage brokers using the same appraisers, deal after deal, had skewed market values. So now when you order an appraisal you get assigned from a pool, which contains all actives in our state. Now that is the rub area experience does make a difference, approximate value might be able to be determined from afar, but real hard specific value needs more local flavor and eyes to look out for local known issues and or benefits. Best case example here, two homes across the street from each other in an executive neighborhood, similar size and age, both extremely well kept and up to date. One is priced four million higher than the other ....why? Because the higher home has view up the harbor and a 40' mooring dock with a 30 foot lift at the end... how do you put a value on dock and view... ? It's really difficult if you live a 150 miles away...

So nope appraisal is what it is... but don't get me started on undertakers... er I mean underwriting..
salient points. in my experience this applies to some realtors too -- they rely too heavily on price/sq foot
 

Voodoo

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Hey VD,
Naw, appraisers don't ruin my day, unless VA or FHA, you give me a bad number and I'll order another appraisal. Take another pull at the lever... here in SC they had the brilliant idea to go to a round robin appraiser assignment system. Doing 2008 post mortem they determined that relationships between mortgage brokers using the same appraisers, deal after deal, had skewed market values. So now when you order an appraisal you get assigned from a pool, which contains all actives in our state. Now that is the rub area experience does make a difference, approximate value might be able to be determined from afar, but real hard specific value needs more local flavor and eyes to look out for local known issues and or benefits. Best case example here, two homes across the street from each other in an executive neighborhood, similar size and age, both extremely well kept and up to date. One is priced four million higher than the other ....why? Because the higher home has view up the harbor and a 40' mooring dock with a 30 foot lift at the end... how do you put a value on dock and view... ? It's really difficult if you live a 150 miles away...

So nope appraisal is what it is... but don't get me started on undertakers... er I mean underwriting..

Which, of course, defeats the entire purpose. But, hey, banks get what banks want. I don't think it's entirely random (but of course I don't know SC). This also COMPLETELY eliminates any incentive to be a "good" appraiser. So you'll just get worse and worse quality because they were picked at random.

Views are so subjective but certainly can make a big difference. At the high end of the market it's more like art. How does one use the "Principle of Substitution" on a piece of fine art? It's all so dumb.
 

Voodoo

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Hey VD,
Naw, appraisers don't ruin my day, unless VA or FHA, you give me a bad number and I'll order another appraisal. Take another pull at the lever... here in SC they had the brilliant idea to go to a round robin appraiser assignment system. Doing 2008 post mortem they determined that relationships between mortgage brokers using the same appraisers, deal after deal, had skewed market values. So now when you order an appraisal you get assigned from a pool, which contains all actives in our state. Now that is the rub area experience does make a difference, approximate value might be able to be determined from afar, but real hard specific value needs more local flavor and eyes to look out for local known issues and or benefits. Best case example here, two homes across the street from each other in an executive neighborhood, similar size and age, both extremely well kept and up to date. One is priced four million higher than the other ....why? Because the higher home has view up the harbor and a 40' mooring dock with a 30 foot lift at the end... how do you put a value on dock and view... ? It's really difficult if you live a 150 miles away...

So nope appraisal is what it is... but don't get me started on undertakers... er I mean underwriting..

Speaking of underwriters I got the dumbest request back yesterday. Low price house is selling on 3 lots (33' wide and pretty much useless). I mean they have some value but not much. Well, the bank Will Not make the loan because the house is on the middle lot. Why? As far as I can tell it's because the two side lots (also tiny) had separate addresses once upon a time. One lot had an old crappy garage and the other has a fenced yard attached to the house. So they want me to appraise it with just the one lot but of course not change the value even though they just removed 2/3 of the lot. Yeah, no.

The funny thing is they had this thing on hold for a couple weeks and had talked to the City. They even sent me his letter. Of course the City guy is a moron as well and can't read his own Zoning maps and told them the wrong zoning. Essentially saying it was ok because it will be a non-conforming lot.

I sent back a suggestion saying hey, if the addresses are the problem just get the city to drop the address. Or, get them to combine three useless non-conforming lots into one lot like it's been used for god knows how long.
 

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At the high end of the market it's more like art. How does one use the "Principle of Substitution" on a piece of fine art?
bingo. this plays into what land i speculate on. the more inefficient pricing the better
 

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VD,
Down here we can split property into lots... but darn is it hard to get it redefined into one large parcel. The whole system is designed to divide and conquer... Got a friend who just bought six horribly divided lots, a narrow 4 way back 900 feet to flag shaped back lots and two adjoining parcels. Turning six into one 30 acre piece proved all but impossible, $12000 later he tells me... dang you were right they won't combine these without an act of god... guess we'll just pay tax for six separate parcels...
 

Casey Jones

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VD,
Down here we can split property into lots... but darn is it hard to get it redefined into one large parcel. The whole system is designed to divide and conquer... Got a friend who just bought six horribly divided lots, a narrow 4 way back 900 feet to flag shaped back lots and two adjoining parcels. Turning six into one 30 acre piece proved all but impossible, $12000 later he tells me... dang you were right they won't combine these without an act of god... guess we'll just pay tax for six separate parcels...
It was even worse in my area(s) of Western New York - where the land had been surveyed over a century earlier, by the Holland Land Company.

Lots were ridiculously small, and EVERY home was on at least eight parcels or so. Often taxed individually.

My own home, in Erie County, was about 25 parcels (about an acre) and...even though I paid an attorney to handle the paperwork, ensure title searches, etc (routine in the Vampire State) the sale neglected to include one parcel right in the center of the land.

Fortunately there were no liens or quit-claim documents, so it just took the writing of checks, and time, to get title to that one parcel. So much for an attorney's involvement...

In a neighboring county, where my father had owned resort rental property...once he died, my mother and I tried to contest a tax reassessment. So we had to identify each parcel of land with the tax bill; and some of them were ridiculous, especially for the taxes charged. Took a full 6 hours with the county assessor in a protest meeting, just to go through the parcels - some of them completely useless except as buffers to the usable land.

Each area is different. I've since learned that other areas seldom require an attorney's (non)guidance in real-estate purchases - Wisconsin, for example, uses old platt maps. I don't know how that works, since I didn't follow through on what I was considering, but it was obviously much simpler.
 

Voodoo

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VD,
Down here we can split property into lots... but darn is it hard to get it redefined into one large parcel. The whole system is designed to divide and conquer... Got a friend who just bought six horribly divided lots, a narrow 4 way back 900 feet to flag shaped back lots and two adjoining parcels. Turning six into one 30 acre piece proved all but impossible, $12000 later he tells me... dang you were right they won't combine these without an act of god... guess we'll just pay tax for six separate parcels...

That makes sense for larger buildable parcels. These lots were platted probably 100+ years ago. Zoning didn't exist until like the 1970's and even then they paid little attention. Cities will always do what they think will maximize taxes. Well they don't get much for vacant lot taxes here so it really would be little difference to the city in this case. Looked it up. The one lot to south brings in $76 bucks a year. It would be just as much or more when combined.

After all, they already said these were non-conforming lots so they would not let people build on them. What good are they then?
 
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Voodoo

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bingo. this plays into what land i speculate on. the more inefficient pricing the better

Real Estate in general is an easy market to scalp trade. Because there are always sales that don't make any sense. How many times does someone just give up and sell something way low, or just not even care to do the work and sell to a friend/neighbor/family member? With so many unique pieces of property and little data it makes for great scalping for those who know the market.
 

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Speaking of underwriters I got the dumbest request back yesterday. Low price house is selling on 3 lots (33' wide and pretty much useless). I mean they have some value but not much. Well, the bank Will Not make the loan because the house is on the middle lot. Why? As far as I can tell it's because the two side lots (also tiny) had separate addresses once upon a time. One lot had an old crappy garage and the other has a fenced yard attached to the house. So they want me to appraise it with just the one lot but of course not change the value even though they just removed 2/3 of the lot. Yeah, no.

The funny thing is they had this thing on hold for a couple weeks and had talked to the City. They even sent me his letter. Of course the City guy is a moron as well and can't read his own Zoning maps and told them the wrong zoning. Essentially saying it was ok because it will be a non-conforming lot.

I sent back a suggestion saying hey, if the addresses are the problem just get the city to drop the address. Or, get them to combine three useless non-conforming lots into one lot like it's been used for god knows how long.

VD,
Down here we can split property into lots... but darn is it hard to get it redefined into one large parcel. The whole system is designed to divide and conquer... Got a friend who just bought six horribly divided lots, a narrow 4 way back 900 feet to flag shaped back lots and two adjoining parcels. Turning six into one 30 acre piece proved all but impossible, $12000 later he tells me... dang you were right they won't combine these without an act of god... guess we'll just pay tax for six separate parcels...

It was even worse in my area(s) of Western New York - where the land had been surveyed over a century earlier, by the Holland Land Company.

Lots were ridiculously small, and EVERY home was on at least eight parcels or so. Often taxed individually.

My own home, in Erie County, was about 25 parcels (about an acre) and...even though I paid an attorney to handle the paperwork, ensure title searches, etc (routine in the Vampire State) the sale neglected to include one parcel right in the center of the land.

Fortunately there were no liens or quit-claim documents, so it just took the writing of checks, and time, to get title to that one parcel. So much for an attorney's involvement...

In a neighboring county, where my father had owned resort rental property...once he died, my mother and I tried to contest a tax reassessment. So we had to identify each parcel of land with the tax bill; and some of them were ridiculous, especially for the taxes charged. Took a full 6 hours with the county assessor in a protest meeting, just to go through the parcels - some of them completely useless except as buffers to the usable land.

Each area is different. I've since learned that other areas seldom require an attorney's (non)guidance in real-estate purchases - Wisconsin, for example, uses old platt maps. I don't know how that works, since I didn't follow through on what I was considering, but it was obviously much simpler.

How this is handled drastically depends on what state you live in.

I am working on 2 parcel mergers right now and even local jursidictions have different rules. We have a California Subdivision Map Act that states how things should be done and then local agencies can pass local laws that go further.

Here at least, mergers are very simple. Especially, if they are contiguous lots (touching each other). Of course they need to be in common ownership to merge them first and then some Cities require a Lot Line Adjustment that essentially extinguishes the dividing lines, some Cities if its over a certian number of lots require a new subdivision map that shows the existing configuration and then the overal lot they're merged into.

DIVIDING property is MUCH more expensive, costly and political. Theres conditions of approval (City will give you the ok if you scratch their back and improve something somewhere else), affordable housing fees, park fees, fees, fees, fees, etc.

In fact, mergers are so common out here that sometimes the County assessor would just merge lots themselves to make things "simpler". Back in the day Marin County was NOT desirable whatsoever. It was the Country for the City folk of SF, so much so that there were these extremely small parcels that were made (1'x3') and other silly sizes and newspapers would give them away if you subscribed lol. They've cleaned that up now and now Marin County realestate is out of control...
 

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Real Estate in general is an easy market to scalp trade. Because there are always sales that don't make any sense. How many times does someone just give up and sell something way low, or just not even care to do the work and sell to a friend/neighbor/family member? With so many unique pieces of property and little data it makes for great scalping for those who know the market.
"We Buy Ugly Homes."
 

Voodoo

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It was even worse in my area(s) of Western New York - where the land had been surveyed over a century earlier, by the Holland Land Company.

Lots were ridiculously small, and EVERY home was on at least eight parcels or so. Often taxed individually.

My own home, in Erie County, was about 25 parcels (about an acre) and...even though I paid an attorney to handle the paperwork, ensure title searches, etc (routine in the Vampire State) the sale neglected to include one parcel right in the center of the land.

Fortunately there were no liens or quit-claim documents, so it just took the writing of checks, and time, to get title to that one parcel. So much for an attorney's involvement...

In a neighboring county, where my father had owned resort rental property...once he died, my mother and I tried to contest a tax reassessment. So we had to identify each parcel of land with the tax bill; and some of them were ridiculous, especially for the taxes charged. Took a full 6 hours with the county assessor in a protest meeting, just to go through the parcels - some of them completely useless except as buffers to the usable land.

Each area is different. I've since learned that other areas seldom require an attorney's (non)guidance in real-estate purchases - Wisconsin, for example, uses old platt maps. I don't know how that works, since I didn't follow through on what I was considering, but it was obviously much simpler.

This town literally has lots platted in what is now the sewage lagoon. Anyone care to buy? Waaaay better than a bridge. I mean they aren't making any more land....

In this small town I have anything from as small as 2,000 sq ft with a house (smallest I can remember) but I'm sure there are many smaller lots. To as large as 40 ac lots in town. Of course the City complains about there being no land to build on but I wonder if they've ever looked at a map or aerial view of the town.
 

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EchelonPL

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Is it possible to sell within your family? My parents might sell their rental to move into another part of the country. Would be awesome to somehow buy it from them but at a discount to market rate. I always wondered if that’s possible.
How many times does someone just give up and sell something way low, or just not even care to do the work and sell to a friend/neighbor/family member?
 

Voodoo

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Is it possible to sell within your family? My parents might sell their rental to move into another part of the country. Would be awesome to somehow buy it from them but at a discount to market rate. I always wondered if that’s possible.

Of course, if ya want you can just quit claim it over for virtually free. Of course they would have to want to do that and you should check on tax or legal ramifications.
 

Usury

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It was even worse in my area(s) of Western New York - where the land had been surveyed over a century earlier, by the Holland Land Company.

Lots were ridiculously small, and EVERY home was on at least eight parcels or so. Often taxed individually.

My own home, in Erie County, was about 25 parcels (about an acre) and...even though I paid an attorney to handle the paperwork, ensure title searches, etc (routine in the Vampire State) the sale neglected to include one parcel right in the center of the land.

Fortunately there were no liens or quit-claim documents, so it just took the writing of checks, and time, to get title to that one parcel. So much for an attorney's involvement...

In a neighboring county, where my father had owned resort rental property...once he died, my mother and I tried to contest a tax reassessment. So we had to identify each parcel of land with the tax bill; and some of them were ridiculous, especially for the taxes charged. Took a full 6 hours with the county assessor in a protest meeting, just to go through the parcels - some of them completely useless except as buffers to the usable land.

Each area is different. I've since learned that other areas seldom require an attorney's (non)guidance in real-estate purchases - Wisconsin, for example, uses old platt maps. I don't know how that works, since I didn't follow through on what I was considering, but it was obviously much simpler.
This is one reason why banks don’t like loans with multiple parcels. Servicing is a night,are to make sure all the different tax parcels get paid.
 

Voodoo

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This is one reason why banks don’t like loans with multiple parcels. Servicing is a night,are to make sure all the different tax parcels get paid.

You have computers and shit tons of money... It ain't that hard. Try writing a highest and best use analysis for said parcels. And get paid pretty much nothing as no one really does it.

Anyway, it looks like we have finally seen the peak in prices for now. June looks like the high. How long it lasts and how low we go I think all depends on the money printers and inflation.


1658092289112.png
 

Usury

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You have computers and shit tons of money... It ain't that hard. Try writing a highest and best use analysis for said parcels. And get paid pretty much nothing as no one really does it.

Anyway, it looks like we have finally seen the peak in prices for now. June looks like the high. How long it lasts and how low we go I think all depends on the money printers and inflation.


View attachment 267917
You? YOU?? REALLY????!!!! Since when am I a bank. Since when do I write servicing software? Since when do I have tons of money?

And does your appraisal software accommodate 20 parcels as in the example Above? Of course it won’t.…

And the ironic part is you once again made my case by pissing and moaning about hard your life is to write appraisal reports for multiple parcels. (Although copying and paste a two sentence paragraph from your other hundreds of reports explaining that the subject property parcels have no better use than as currently improved/used hardly requires Einstein-level intellect or Herculean effort, nor will the owner loose their house if you left a number off your report).

Good grief…I try to explain why something works the way it does and YOU feel the need to tell ME how I’m responsible for shit I’m not and that frankly you have no clue what you are talking about. Get stuffed.

PS-if you’re not happy with your life choice and pay….then bugger off and go flip burgers.
 

Usury

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You have computers and shit tons of money... It ain't that hard. Try writing a highest and best use analysis for said parcels. And get paid pretty much nothing as no one really does it.

Anyway, it looks like we have finally seen the peak in prices for now. June looks like the high. How long it lasts and how low we go I think all depends on the money printers and inflation.


View attachment 267917
Oh and there are plenty of folks out there that think more money and software will solve problems that are wrong. A bunch of them think your job is 100% obsolete and can be done in a fraction of the time and cost with satellite imagery, MLS and public record data and AI.
 

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Oh and there are plenty of folks out there that think more money and software will solve problems that are wrong. A bunch of them think your job is 100% obsolete and can be done in a fraction of the time and cost with satellite imagery, MLS and public record data and AI.

90% of the time they are correct. Big data works pretty well but there are always exceptions. I've tried to design my own approach and figuring out the variables that are really important and the ones that are not. Building my own database is difficult though and I just didn't have time. The other problem is that several of the variables are still pretty subjective and condition being the most important. How do you quantify condition? It's not easy. Fannie Mae tried with the stupid ass C1-C6 ratings and it made things much worse. Shocking I know.

This is why I said they are still using us for a few reasons. A.) They think they can make their software better if they just steal more of our data. B.) They need us for the close ones, the value should be a range but the whole banking system can only deal with one value. So when a house sells for slightly over value there is some leeway. Say the numbers say the value is $96,000 +/- $5,000 but the contract is at the nice round number of $100,000 C.) They are just buying our insurance, somehow not comprehending that if the market goes belly up the insurance co's won't cover much of anything.

Highest and Best Use is something that just doesn't work as they designed it. Because, what you really have to do to develop the opinion of value for your real estate is come up with other values first. First, you need to get the land value as residential, then get the land value as commercial, then get more values if it was 2 or 3 or 4 units, and then get the single family value. All for the price and time of one appraisal. Luckily, it is usually pretty clear around here and you could ignore it 99% of the time.
 
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Voodoo

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In the end it will end up costing them much more money. Because many appraisers were getting paid less money then what my co-worker was getting paid to do a septic inspection. Needless to say he stopped appraising but kept his septic license.
 

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BackwardsEngineeer

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Ok,
Fed checks back in.. .75 increase. The stock market goes vroooom... stupid is as stupid does. Two straight quarters down on GDP, yet no recession.. inflation coming

Some here are still long and strong on RE, better hold tight.... Then they tell us the chinese are going to bail us out, take us higher.. or maybe blackrock...

Don't feel like arguing this point any longer, if you get in a situation over the next several years that requires the sale of real estate, you might be in for the most revealing ride of your life..
 

Uglytruth

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I was expecting 1% adn thought they could have done more. But the midterms are one issue.

I hope everyone realizes all this manipulation & destruction of our lives, jobs, communities, country is because they use fake money to control everything & lead us like sheep to slaughter.
 

Casey Jones

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Ok,
Fed checks back in.. .75 increase. The stock market goes vroooom... stupid is as stupid does. Two straight quarters down on GDP, yet no recession.. inflation coming

Some here are still long and strong on RE, better hold tight.... Then they tell us the chinese are going to bail us out, take us higher.. or maybe blackrock...

Don't feel like arguing this point any longer, if you get in a situation over the next several years that requires the sale of real estate, you might be in for the most revealing ride of your life..
The message I take from this is, if you opt to buy, do it with cash or a way to cover your loans. Because you may well be upside down and have the loan called.

The bad part of this REALITY, and I recognize it as that...is that it's a perfect opportunity for vulture-capital firms like BlackRock to swope in and buy up moar of the countryside.

I guess the aim here is, as with Europe, to displace farmers and rural/suburban people to force them into Organized cities like Chicongo.
 

Uglytruth

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I guess the aim here is, as with Europe, to displace farmers and rural/suburban people to force them
to sell so they can control the food production.
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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More than two but less than twenty?
BF,
Now that is the zillion dollar question.....? 2008 took three years of dive and then five years of yawwwn plus trumph to set us this rocket time...

So many issues extend beyond housing that are tied in, bond markets, age demographics, world changing manufacturing environments just to name a few. To me the two biggies are that every year the dying generation has less to leave dependents and what is going to be the true long term life/death outcome of the vid and the vaxxx.....

Spoke with a guy last week who is advertising his RE business as an estate specialist. He does the whole deal, helps with funeral arrangements, has a team to go through every nook and cranny, remove, repair and clean RE for sale. Takes things to goodwill, gets receipts. Arranges the sales of auto's, extras. All of course on a commission, most of his customers never even fly in, just send me my share....

All told I'm guessing 2050 before we can get enough to push higher...
 

Voodoo

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to sell so they can control the food production.

They are going bankrupt too, so what money exactly do you think they are going to buy all this up?

Bosie Idaho getting hammered. Anyone live in the area? 60-70% price cuts is crazy. I guess our orders finally dropped this week.

 

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Densus

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They are going bankrupt too, so what money exactly do you think they are going to buy all this up?

Bosie Idaho getting hammered. Anyone live in the area? 60-70% price cuts is crazy. I guess our orders finally dropped this week.

I have a friend that live in Mountain Home, but only talk to him once every few months through email.
 

DodgebyDave

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I need to sell my place for the max and then the market crash the next day.

I have a better chance of that than I have of getting a loan
 

EchelonPL

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If you look at the peak in May, there is a large decrese in price at SoCal. My nieghbor (who was a realtor) sold their condo for $735k at the absolute peak. I have the same exact floor plan and 2-3 months later I see price cuts with sale prices now at $675k and many more listings popping up, about 3-4 times the amount i see of my style unit.
 

Fiat Metaler

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I've been traveling and haven't commented in a while so I'll post some thoughts.

Prices in my area remain strong. Zillow says the value of my house went up 7.6% in the last 30 days.

Another market I'm following is Richmond, which is a metro area of about a million. Prices had jumped there, and worse people were insisting on no inspection, financing, or appraisal contingencies. Things have slowed a bit and I'm seeing price reductions on houses that are not fully updated or not in the prime areas. Contingencies are now expected.

Interest rates have come down to below 5.5% in some areas from over 6% a few months ago. That's still double from 2 years ago but we seem to have reached and passsed peak interest rates. Interestingly, when the fed raised the short term rate 0.75% the 30-year rate fell.

Pricing - you are seeing all these articles about median home prices falling. I will suggest that those are very misleading. Technically the data is true, but it doesn't mean prices are falling. It means that the higher end homes are not coming to market and so the averages are down. It could be that interest rates pack a bigger punch on a jumbo loan than a typical $250K loan. It could be that higher income individuals are worried about the current recession. It could be a lack of supply. It could be that prices ran up so fast that they can't increase forever. It could be that rents are rising so fast so people who were renting are now jumping to buy houses at the lower end, thus lowering the price of the "median" house. I don't know about any of those. What I do know is that the prices in the areas I'm looking are either steady or rising.
 

Thecrensh

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They are going bankrupt too, so what money exactly do you think they are going to buy all this up?

Bosie Idaho getting hammered. Anyone live in the area? 60-70% price cuts is crazy. I guess our orders finally dropped this week.

I've heard that a LOT of the Boise housing market was people moving from CA. Spoke with a guy in CA on Thursday - one of his friends moved to Boise from CA and HATES it because the locals hate transplanted Californians. Also, same guy has a different friend who moved to TX but kept his CA plates - his car has been vandalized 3 times.
 

Fiat Metaler

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The thing with places like Boise and to a lesser exent Austin and Nashville, is that (1) they got a lot of people from California, and (2) they weren't large places to begin with. Boise is about 800K people, Nashville about 1.3 million, and Austin about 2.3 million. Boise is a lot closer to California as well so I'm sure folks there are miserable.
 

Casey Jones

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The thing with places like Boise and to a lesser exent Austin and Nashville, is that (1) they got a lot of people from California, and (2) they weren't large places to begin with. Boise is about 800K people, Nashville about 1.3 million, and Austin about 2.3 million. Boise is a lot closer to California as well so I'm sure folks there are miserable.
ANYPLACE reasonably close to Calistan.

I'm in Missoula County, Montana. Now, nine years ago, I had to look up Missoula on a map to find it. It's not a populous area - today, the population in the city is about 90k; the county, 140k. That's about double what it was 20 years ago; and nearly all that growth has been from Cali expats.

And most of it recent.

And to make things exponentially worse, city government has been taken over by Californians. With ALL KINDS of social-engineering diktats. For example...the city is zoned. Which is reasonable, given the potential for irresponsible land-use and construction, as I saw, 40 years ago in Houston.

HOWEVER. The city wreckers fathers are SO hepped on getting "sustainable" (not really) residential construction up, they have a caveat for multifamily and apartment structures. THEY DO NOT REQUIRE ZONING. They can go up ANYWHERE.

And with the Covid Explosion of population from Calimexico...that is exactly what is happening. Two new huge rabbit warrens are going up, overlooking a Republic Services refuse-transfer station. That's on one side; on the other side is the Interstate.

Another is going up on property that had long been owned by the railroad. When I came here, a railroad employee, nine years ago, there were four huge wooden sheds, long abandoned, and sick-looking soil, often flooded in spring. The sheds came down and townhouses went up. Oh, goody! This rail yard has a sub-facility...gasoline is transported 60 miles west, to a tank farm, because the Flathead Indian Reservation wouldn't allow a petroleum pipeline to cross its land. So, twice a day, fifty rail cars are filled with gasoline, taken to Paradise, Montana, parked at another transfer station, and the empty bombs (still with many hundreds of gallons of gasoline, each car) brought back.

Accidents are rare, of course. I haven't seen one in my time here. BUT THEY DO HAPPEN, and those condo-buyers are gonna have a front-row seat.

This, because of the EXTREME housing pressure - brought to you by Californians, who frantically flee the hell they've created, only to re-create it, where they next land to pollute.

And they do. Gang graffiti and street crime, are now serious local problems.

Overcrowding..."Asshole-ism"...Public Stupidity on roads, as well as in stores and public spaces...crime...huge hike in property taxes...yeah. Soon it will be time to move, once again. If I can find a place.

If we ever get past the Long Emergency.
 

Voodoo

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