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Foreclosures are on the rise. Here’s what that says about the housing market

Casey Jones

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Inflation and White flight. Homes are up 100% over last year in some areas, like Whitefish and Kalispell. Residential lots and small tracts are up 500% from what they were 3 years ago.
He ain't woofin'. I'd seen it...being finally in a position to price out a small home. Stuff with a history of selling for less than $10k a year ago, in backwaters like Libby or Troy...are now going for $50k and up.

Only an idiot or lunatic would buy in this market. Will it get worse? It won't get cheaper - because the currency is being debased. But if it's possible to find some other arrangement, putting money into something else - like guns or supplies - will get more value. Even gold. This cannot go on, where everything is being debased, and hyperinflation is running riot.

One other thought: Just as with Californistan, once the big money starts chasing real estate, and the Beautiful People come in...the whole state goes to hell. And Montana will do that, faster - it doesn't have the idyllic weather that Santa Barbara has. And we're a lot further into systemic societal collapse.
 

Casey Jones

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we at gim2 know how to stop it. END THE FED. it is the wellspring of the communist coup. all of it
You assume the sheeple want to stop the communist coup.

Doesn't appear they do.
 

Casey Jones

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All part of the master plan to destroy the country by destroying the middle class. We know what's killing us, we simply don't know how to stop it
Ignorance is what's destroying the middle class.

If they understood what was being done; and why all this Financialization and Social Engineering will destroy them, they'd rise up. Out of a sense of self-preservation.

They don't understand because they were not educated. Not at home, in schools, universities. That ended with my own (late Boomer) generation.
 

ZZZZZ

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1/3rd of all residential housing now owned by "investors."

FOgwIDnXIAEWhRj
 

Casey Jones

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1/3rd of all residential housing now owned by "investors."

FOgwIDnXIAEWhRj
And when nobody can afford to rent them, what does that do to the investment?

And...ask a property-owner what happens when he rents to a tenant too close to the financial edge. The property is destroyed, slowly, with abuse, neglect, and very-often, malice.

Rental properties have been a good, solid BUT SLOW income stream for many small landholders. The return isn't that great, and remember, the "owner" is himself renting from the government, which charges tribute (property taxes) of the alleged owners. Significant taxes. And the structure can change, essentially on whim.

This will not survive, either. If Black Rock winds up with a huge inventory of houses, many empty...and a huge number of Americans cannot afford to live in them...there's gonna be an epidemic of pyromania sweeping the country.

And Black Rock will fail from this investment strategy.
 

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frbny and their stooges in gov will bail out nyc, nyc investors, blackrock and the rest of the communists. again

end the fed
 

the_shootist

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Don't know what is going on in Ukraine but I read rent payments there are ninety percent past due according to the Hebrew realtors.
That's not going to play well, no sir, not at all
 

Casey Jones

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A little louder, please.

View attachment 251613
You can scream it as loud as you want.

It won't happen.

Only economic education (TRUE education, not programming) would build the consensus for it. And that isn't happening and won't happen.

Too many oligarchs in the shadows, have stolen too much wealth with seigniorage. They think there's more to steal (I don't; they're at the end of that hustle) and won't permit a movement away.

Until they're impaled at the city limits.
 

edsl48

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People are buying right and left here without even looking. Some are even out of state individuals looking for rentals figuring that there is a college here so student rentals blah blah. It is now to the point where the rental market is saturated and rents are actually drooping. While it hurts me a bit I am still profitable and realize that they are not only not profitable they also have a negative cash flow situation that I think is funny. You can't tell these people anything because their "realtor said" which is the worst advice ever in my book...oh well...lol
 

TAEZZAR

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If they got it last year with practically nothing down, then how would they have 200k in equity? Those 12 monthly payments would be nearly all interest payments. As to why they'd walk away, well that would require rising expenses and/or falling wages rendering them unable to keep up with the payments...and/or money problems leading to marital disharmony followed by divorce. If/when housing prices fall sharply they'll also be underwater and unable to refinance later...even at higher rates.


Quite high I should think...at least on the long end of the curve. 30yr fixed is pushing 4.9% currently, so figure real pain gets rolling if/when we see 5.25% and higher. Two points higher in a few months would be pretty brutal. Amusing how 20 yr mortgage rates are nearly identical to 30yr rates currently. The only friendly place on the yield curve is right where treasury keeps rolling over trillions in toxic debt.
1980ish rates hit 13% & gold soared to $800, silver was pushed, by the Hunt Bros., to $50. :gracious:
 

Fiat Metaler

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Rents are going up faster than home prices and mortgage rates.

Its like complanining that the cost of steak is too high when chicken costs more. That is the sort of bizzarro world we are in now.

The debt is unpayable so I expect that we will have inflation for years.
 

Casey Jones

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Rents are going up faster than home prices and mortgage rates.

Its like complanining that the cost of steak is too high when chicken costs more. That is the sort of bizzarro world we are in now.

The debt is unpayable so I expect that we will have inflation for years.
Wiemar Republic.

And what their end was, will probably be ours, too.

Adolf Hitler, during the period of Wiemar hyperinflation, was just a vagrant painter-wannabee, wandering the streets of Vienna and later, Munich. He impressed nobody - not until the fateful day when as a new attendee to a National Socialist Party meeting, he spoke to the group.

This will happen again. A monster will emerge, and right now, if he came to your door asking for a glass of water, you'd never guess it.
 

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Rents are going up faster than home prices and mortgage rates.

Its like complanining that the cost of steak is too high when chicken costs more. That is the sort of bizzarro world we are in now.

The debt is unpayable so I expect that we will have inflation for years.

in the last housing crash i thought people losing their homes would be a positive for apartments

i was dead wrong. people instead moved in with family/friends. household formation tanked

i think travel trailers picked up some of the foreclosed people - but it was the only thing that saw increased demand
 

EO 11110

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homebuilder etf getting slaughtered -- chart is ytd, less than 3 months

two news items from today were ugly -- new home sales down, kb homes missed earnings top and bottom lines

1648074100075.png
 
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hoarder

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If home builders are hurting, they should move to Flathead County Montana.
 

edsl48

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30yr Fixed Rates Heading Toward 5% at Fastest Pace in Decades​

By: Matthew Graham
Tue, Mar 22 2022, 7:27 PM
Rates added to the record-breaking move higher today. The carnage has now earned early 2022 the dubious distinction of being the biggest 3-month rate spike since 1994.
Adults who are old enough to remember 1994 have always had an ace in the hole when it comes to today's young whipper snappers complaining about abrupt spikes in mortgage rates. Sure, even older adults have the first few months of 1980, but 1994 was a more compelling example because it wasn't part of the once-in-a-lifetime inflationary spike. As such, it is a more worthy comparison to any modern example of rate volatility.
As of today, the race between the first few months of 1994 and 2022 are neck and neck in terms of damage done to mortgage rates in a short amount of time.
That said, it really depends on where you draw the line on time frames and movement amounts. To be sure, the 3 months between late Dec 2021 and late March 2022 have seen the same if not slightly more movement than Feb/Mar/April 1994.
See Rates from Lenders in Your Area
The drawback of the comparison is that our daily rate data only goes back to the middle of 2009. If we use it to update Freddie Mac's weekly survey data (which does go back to 1994), the reigning champ is still in the lead for the year-over-year time frames highlighted by the rectangular boxes.
623a55814f4f4eeef91047ff.png

Versus more recent competition, 2022 is looking tough to beat:
623a55b34f4f4eeef9104800.png

To be very fair to 2013, if we look at a shorter time horizon, there is a time frame where 2013's taper tantrum was still slightly worse. 2013 was also worse over 8 weeks than 2022 has been over 7 weeks (1.22% vs 1.06%).
The following chart is 2013:
623a55f44f4f4eeef9104801.png

2013's record of 0.57% in one week hasn't been duplicated since. Things would have to get precipitously worse this week for 2022 to compete, but at the risk of tempting fate, it's technically possible if we lose another .31% over the next 3 days.
The following chart is 2022:
623a56f54f4f4eeef9104802.png

Shorter time frames aside, the 1.56% over 3 months is a bigger move than any 3 month window in 2013, and 1.94% over 7.5 months (.258% per month) is a significantly more abrupt pace than the 2.14% seen over 11 months in 1994 (.194% per month), even though 2.14% has yet to be matched inside the space of a year. Sadly, if recent trends continue at even a shadow of their current pace, 1994's record will be broken with several months left on the clock.
 

Fiat Metaler

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If home builders are hurting, they should move to Flathead County Montana.

My BIL is a homebuilder in that area. Even though its pricy, and cold, by U.S. standards, its extremely popular with Canadians.

Canada has a housing bubble 2X or 3X the size of the U.S. so for them it makes sense to cash out and move to Montana. So what you are seeing in that corner of Montana is a bit skewed. The rest of the U.S. is up just 20% - 50% since the Biden inflation began.

I just don't understand why they choose Montana over say Florida or Arizona.
 

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Chase out the investor types and how much will prices drop? I need a retirement home soon.
 

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Chase out the investor types and how much will prices drop? I need a retirement home soon.

the problem investor types are (nyc shysters) with unlimited funds from federal reserve bank of ny

end the fed. they are behind the transfer of housing into (satanist) hands
 

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If home builders are hurting, they should move to Flathead County Montana.

houston seeing similar. population rising + (nyc shyster) manipulation = extreme prices in everything housing
 

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solarion

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Kinda puts it in perspective doesn't it? Last time I had a mortgage was 20 years or so back. I vaguely recall buying a point lower rate at signing to bring it down to 5.37? Thing is the housing market is bloated as eff now and the market cannot handle those rates at this point...and neither can corporate Amerika.

1648129468128.png
 

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What I want to know is how to make money off what I see is the inevitability of all those downtown office buildings being turned into residential and mixed use. It seems obvious to me that the traditional office space is not returning -- people like working from home -- and many of those empty buildings will be turned into housing.
 

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What I want to know is how to make money off what I see is the inevitability of all those downtown office buildings being turned into residential and mixed use. It seems obvious to me that the traditional office space is not returning -- people like working from home -- and many of those empty buildings will be turned into housing.
How in the world are people going to support themselves living there, when the work is leaving?

Unless there's some sort of Prison-Planet-style warehousing scheme used. What, park people in former offices, give them Stimmy, and restrict their movement? Or just limit it through CBDCs that can only be used in approved areas for sustenance purchases?

Unmentioned here is, maintenance of a skyscraper is MUCH higher than maintenance of a typical residential building. So it's not even going to be cost-effective.
 

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How in the world are people going to support themselves living there, when the work is leaving?

Unless there's some sort of Prison-Planet-style warehousing scheme used. What, park people in former offices, give them Stimmy, and restrict their movement? Or just limit it through CBDCs that can only be used in approved areas for sustenance purchases?

Unmentioned here is, maintenance of a skyscraper is MUCH higher than maintenance of a typical residential building. So it's not even going to be cost-effective.
The city zombies supported the government handouts will be crammed into every nook and cranny
 

Casey Jones

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And how are these artifacts going to be maintained? Water, sewerage, electric and other connections, become incredibly complex. Water sometimes has to be PUMPED to a holding tank to give it adequate pressure. Sewerage...that's a long way down.

Structural maintenance is critical. Systems such as elevators, are critical - and costly. Against a welfare budget, this is not going to work.

Just borrow and print moar? Not after the dollar loses its Reserve-Currency status. Even if the buildings are given, or seized, by government...the maintenance is going to overwhelm them.
 

solarion

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What I want to know is how to make money off what I see is the inevitability of all those downtown office buildings being turned into residential and mixed use. It seems obvious to me that the traditional office space is not returning -- people like working from home -- and many of those empty buildings will be turned into housing.
Simple. Short home builders. IMO...they're going to get slaughtered...for a variety of reasons.
 

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How in the world are people going to support themselves living there, when the work is leaving?

Remote work like all the other people living in suburban houses?
edit: i did some searching and it appears some people are trying to do this in the cities already and the biggest hurdles so far are the city govts getting in the way. but the city govts will change and support it soon enough when they realize the businesses will not be returning to those empty spaces.
 

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Meanwhile in NYC...the third largest hotel just sold for half its 2006 purchase price in nominal dollar terms...even though price inflation should have doubled that pricetag rather than halving it.

Gee, I wonder what that will be turned into...

 

Casey Jones

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Gee, I wonder what that will be turned into...
A vacant eyesore.

The likes of which are all over Detroit.

First, someone's gotta light a fire to get some insurance money coming to them, and provide the justification for closing it.
 

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around my area there are LARGE price differences in areas with high minority populations and low minority population

if you want to get away from the vibrants/crime, have to pay up. the lone exception is waterfront properties -- people are willing to pay up, even if surrounded by the criminal species. but they put up walls, high fences, etc
 

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Some commentary from Franklin Sanders which suggests that interest rates can't go much higher (because it would hurt the banks):

For the week past silver and gold both posted an upweek, as did stocks, the US dollar index, and just about everything except the white metals.
Y’all ponder a moment that why government gives, government can take away. Now think about bondholders. Bond prices move opposite bond yields, so while the Fed and other central banks announced they would suppressing interest rates to zero or lower back in 2008, they handed bond buyers an invitation: Back up the truck and buy bonds: we guarantee you free money. After all, they were promising to raise bond prices. The Fed kept the Federal Funds rate down till 2016 but let it rise to a little over 2.44% in 2019, and then began suppressing again and kept it there (0.33% today).

Whoops! Recently the Fed has announced it’s going to wax aggressive raising rates, which is the same as telling bond buyers to sell, since their rate rise will lower bond prices. Now all ye who believe a central bank contributes to stability cast your weeping eyes on this chart of the 10 year T-note price and the 30 year US bond price The Fed’s interests rate thundering has carved 9.8% out of the T-note price since August and 11.9% out of the 30 year bond since December.

Plainly, a nation without a central bank is like a walrus without a tuxedo. How could we survive without the Fed?

Somehow it seems to me that the Fed is shooting itself in the foot. After all foreigners don’t want to buy US treasury securities, and bank are stuffed full of them, and the Fed has monetized about half the new ones issued in the last two years, so who is going to buy securities with a sinking price so the US government can continue running deficits? Beats me, Santy Claus maybe, unless the Fed monetizes even more of ‘em, which might work against its inflation reducing program. Ouroboros! The snake that is our monetary system may be eating its own tail.

Since I ain’t no more’n a nat’ral born durned fool from Tennessee, I’m plumb tahr'd of pondering. I’ll never get ahead of them slick perfessers and their pointy heads, any more’n I can out-think a gummint economist or a pointy-toe shoe wearing Wall Streeter.
 

EO 11110

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4.72% now, up 26 basis points since a week ago.

4.72 is a great deal now. i saw 4.95 yesterday. 23 b points in one day....wow

i read that the 10 year bond is the main driver of mtg rates. roughly, take 10 year bond, add 2.x percent = mtg rate
 

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I locked in 15 years fixed at 2.625% in December. Was a little late... in the early fall it was almost down to 2.375%.
 

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Rates vary a lot from state to state so a national story might be off quite a bit, a quarter to half a point

Yes the 10 year treasury is the key rate. But the spread over that rate had been closer to one point than two. The current spread seems extended to me which might be another reason to view these higher rates as temporary