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Foreclosures are on the rise. Here’s what that says about the housing market

ttazzman

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At the top of my property are 56 miles of horse trails. They got a hill climb to get to them but a couple of paths up the hill to do it. Thats where all the morels and wild ginseng is as well. Actually Ginsing, morels, chanterelle and shitloads of other shrooms all over the place. Hickory nuts, black walnut (Only 1 tree) and probably a couple other nuts if you had to survive off of them. Loads of stuff to forage too. Blackberries, so many you could never pick them all.
My daughter knows more about the foraging stuff than I do. She was here last weekend and as we were walking around she was pointing out all sorts of stuff that was edible.
I also though about the out of staters. NYC still has an exodus going on and as they run out of taxpayers, those that are left are going to get stung bad.

My 2 top choices for expiating are Cuba and Chile.
Our morel season ended about May 1 ....I'm guessing yours is just now about to end?

As someone mentioned earlier in our area buyers are coming out of the northern cities like Chicago etc ..people retiring wanting to get away from problems our rural real-estate prices are extremely attractive, to the point they can't open their wallets fast enough and they don't care about things like carpet they have plenty of city money to spend on what they see as dirt cheap footage and lifestyle.....obviously local buyers are a different animal
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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cigar,
Your local realtor buddy is going to try to convince you to list local... i'd give a quasi fsbo using zillow a try.. pay the buyer agent a 3% fee and let them do all the work. List it as is, the buyer might balk, but hey tell em what's wrong and let em deal with it upfront.. your buyer is buying potential, not permanent. They are going to want to change all the cigar out of it and shiplap till the cows come home..

If you're going jump get you act in gear, the market really is slowing, you probably have til September. Now whatever rolls out might just make your place worth more, hard to tell..

PS. the gals in cuba can be drop dead gorgeous... better plan on spending on more than a 55 chevy
 

Cigarlover

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Our morel season ended about May 1 ....I'm guessing yours is just now about to end?

As someone mentioned earlier in our area buyers are coming out of the northern cities like Chicago etc ..people retiring wanting to get away from problems our rural real-estate prices are extremely attractive, to the point they can't open their wallets fast enough and they don't care about things like carpet they have plenty of city money to spend on what they see as dirt cheap footage and lifestyle.....obviously local buyers are a different animal
Our morel season is done now as well. Many years it's finished by the beginning of May. Just depends on the weather. This year is one of the nicest springs I have seen in awhile.

cigar,
Your local realtor buddy is going to try to convince you to list local... i'd give a quasi fsbo using zillow a try.. pay the buyer agent a 3% fee and let them do all the work. List it as is, the buyer might balk, but hey tell em what's wrong and let em deal with it upfront.. your buyer is buying potential, not permanent. They are going to want to change all the cigar out of it and shiplap till the cows come home..

If you're going jump get you act in gear, the market really is slowing, you probably have til September. Now whatever rolls out might just make your place worth more, hard to tell..

PS. the gals in cuba can be drop dead gorgeous... better plan on spending on more than a 55 chevy
Yes my real estate guy is another 45 minutes south of me in Patriot Oh. He said he lists things and lately has been getting calls from out of state right away. One called and bought site unseen. So yea, that city money is very nice indeed.
I am very ok with selling as is. Like you said my RE guy is gonna want to list it local and go by local stuff but this is a very unique property, especially the way the house is built and designed.
I'l know in about 2 weeks if I am selling or staying. I really wanted to stay a couple more years and then go but with prices so high right now I think now is the time if I can get that city money. :).
My house cleaner is here now. We were just cleaning out one of the bedrooms I use for storage and she ran across my Cuba photos. I agree the women there are beautiful. Between the women and being able to garden/grow fruit year round, it's a very attractive option for me.
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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cig,
curious as heck.. what happens in two weeks that'll tilt the scales on this sized decision? are you coming into some serious jingle?
 

Cigarlover

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cig,
curious as heck.. what happens in two weeks that'll tilt the scales on this sized decision? are you coming into some serious jingle?
It's just the amount of time I am taking to weigh all my options. I always knew I would retire someplace else. Someplace warmer where I can garden most of the year. I'm 58 and don't really want to go start another homestead when I'm 70. Right now seems like the perfect age to do it.
 

Lancers32

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Cuba?
 

Goldbrix

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Too many folks got comfortable with ARM - Adjustable Rate Mortgages. Now those interest rates are about to explode and they have spent what they should have saved to convert to a Fixed Rate Mortgage.
The entire nation will be like Florida was about 10-15 yrs ago.
If you have cash or access to cash you'll be able to name YOUR PRICE.
 

ttazzman

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Our morel season is done now as well. Many years it's finished by the beginning of May. Just depends on the weather. This year is one of the nicest springs I have seen in awhile.


Yes my real estate guy is another 45 minutes south of me in Patriot Oh. He said he lists things and lately has been getting calls from out of state right away. One called and bought site unseen. So yea, that city money is very nice indeed.
I am very ok with selling as is. Like you said my RE guy is gonna want to list it local and go by local stuff but this is a very unique property, especially the way the house is built and designed.
I'l know in about 2 weeks if I am selling or staying. I really wanted to stay a couple more years and then go but with prices so high right now I think now is the time if I can get that city money. :).
My house cleaner is here now. We were just cleaning out one of the bedrooms I use for storage and she ran across my Cuba photos. I agree the women there are beautiful. Between the women and being able to garden/grow fruit year round, it's a very attractive option for me.
i would note the "city" "outatowners" are looking for "the dream" .........they want to hear things like you mention early on......... lake.....fruit trees....nut trees....low utility home....low tax area....etc ........ to those people 5 acres is a ranch....rural but reasonably close to healthcare...etc
 

EO 11110

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Too many folks got comfortable with ARM - Adjustable Rate Mortgages. Now those interest rates are about to explode and they have spent what they should have saved to convert to a Fixed Rate Mortgage.
The entire nation will be like Florida was about 10-15 yrs ago.
If you have cash or access to cash you'll be able to name YOUR PRICE.
20,000 dollar condos in galveston, tx when that thing blew up. those same condos are selling today for 200,000
 

Cigarlover

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Yes one of my favorite places. SHTF there many decades ago. They know how to live simply and be happy. When everything goes tits up in the US everyone gonna go nuts. Down there they already hit the bottom. Out in the country it's just another day on the farm.
Hook up with a farmers daughter and live like a king on very little money. I don't need to own anything, just bring a little cash to give the family a boost.
It will definitely take a little scouting the countryside to find what I'm looking for but once the word gets out about what I'm looking for it won't be hard to find. All I need then is a good donkey and a cart and a straw hat :)
 

hammerhead

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Our morel season is done now as well. Many years it's finished by the beginning of May. Just depends on the weather. This year is one of the nicest springs I have seen in awhile.


Yes my real estate guy is another 45 minutes south of me in Patriot Oh. He said he lists things and lately has been getting calls from out of state right away. One called and bought site unseen. So yea, that city money is very nice indeed.
I am very ok with selling as is. Like you said my RE guy is gonna want to list it local and go by local stuff but this is a very unique property, especially the way the house is built and designed.
I'l know in about 2 weeks if I am selling or staying. I really wanted to stay a couple more years and then go but with prices so high right now I think now is the time if I can get that city money. :).
My house cleaner is here now. We were just cleaning out one of the bedrooms I use for storage and she ran across my Cuba photos. I agree the women there are beautiful. Between the women and being able to garden/grow fruit year round, it's a very attractive option for me.
I see up here that places sell for crazy money no matter what the condition. And yes, it is city money driving it. Which is choking a big part of the population. Not only pushing prices higher but also jacking taxes.
 

Densus

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Yes one of my favorite places. SHTF there many decades ago. They know how to live simply and be happy. When everything goes tits up in the US everyone gonna go nuts. Down there they already hit the bottom. Out in the country it's just another day on the farm.
Hook up with a farmers daughter and live like a king on very little money. I don't need to own anything, just bring a little cash to give the family a boost.
It will definitely take a little scouting the countryside to find what I'm looking for but once the word gets out about what I'm looking for it won't be hard to find. All I need then is a good donkey and a cart and a straw hat :)
Looks like you will have more elbow room there....

 

Casey Jones

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Yes one of my favorite places. SHTF there many decades ago. They know how to live simply and be happy. When everything goes tits up in the US everyone gonna go nuts. Down there they already hit the bottom. Out in the country it's just another day on the farm.
Hook up with a farmers daughter and live like a king on very little money. I don't need to own anything, just bring a little cash to give the family a boost.
It will definitely take a little scouting the countryside to find what I'm looking for but once the word gets out about what I'm looking for it won't be hard to find. All I need then is a good donkey and a cart and a straw hat :)
Sounds too much like, "You will own NOTHING, and you will be HAPPY."

Maybe at times - even in Medieval times, there were celebrations and mirth. Not nearly as much. And living in a neo-Communist prison colony is surely in many ways like stepping back in time...to the 14th Century...
 

Lancers32

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Hold still this won't hurt a bit.


https___bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com_public_images_59e8f294...png
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Hey up lance,
Not disputing the numbers... it has been a long time since I saw a buyer closing with under $2600 monthly. Keep in mind most are on the pmi train, tax and insurance escrow... typical here is 3500 to 5500 monthly... Oh yea baby... guy across the street just refied a 18 month old new home loan to use the equity to get rid of $485 worth of pmi
 

Lancers32

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Well you gotta live somewhere but it seems to me some of these people have more money than brains. You can only hope we don't go full blown depression.
 

BackwardsEngineeer

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Well you gotta live somewhere but it seems to me some of these people have more money than brains. You can only hope we don't go full blown depression.
Truer words were never spoken... but but some financial guy on tv says that interest is deductible, so I'm actually saving money...

There is not enough popcorn for the coming housing crash...
 

Tbonz

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I've thought for awhile that what is coming will make the great depression look like an economic boom.
1000% agree. I know to different CFP's that are telling people that losing 8%+ on your money is worse than sitting on the sidelines.

BS, buy gold, silver 90%, ammo and prepare.
 

Uglytruth

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1000% agree. I know to different CFP's that are telling people that losing 8%+ on your money is worse than sitting on the sidelines.

BS, buy gold, silver 90%, ammo and prepare.
Guy at work is down 28% ytd.........
 

CiscoKid

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Yes one of my favorite places. SHTF there many decades ago. They know how to live simply and be happy. When everything goes tits up in the US everyone gonna go nuts. Down there they already hit the bottom. Out in the country it's just another day on the farm.
Hook up with a farmers daughter and live like a king on very little money. I don't need to own anything, just bring a little cash to give the family a boost.
It will definitely take a little scouting the countryside to find what I'm looking for but once the word gets out about what I'm looking for it won't be hard to find. All I need then is a good donkey and a cart and a straw hat :)


Sounds fine to me. And I'm ahead of the game by already having a donkey. :2 thumbs up:

Sancho.JPG
 

Fiat Metaler

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Hold still this won't hurt a bit.


View attachment 260210

Very interesting chart. I would like to see the assumpions behind it. Not to dispute it, but to understand what rates and house prices they are using, and why.

For example, if you compare Atlanta and Boston, interest rates should be the same but the percent change is different, because they are using a more expensive house in Boston. What that says to me is that the pain is being felt most acutely at the bottom of the housing market and only modestly. I'm looking to buy a high end house and I'm not afraid of the payments because I expect to be able to refinance in 6-12 months into a lower rate.

I'll admit that I was wrong - I expected interest rates to have come down some by now.

But I don't think I was wrong on prices. Prices are at least steady, which is remarkable when compared to stocks, PMs, or crypto.

One other thing I expect in the medium to long term. People are starting to get an inflation mentality. Its the idea that they had better buy it now at this price because it either won't be available or will be double the price in the future. We saw that with gas briefly under Obama. There are threads on this forum encouraging people to fill their gas cans now. You are seeing it with used cars and some new cars that are in high demand. You saw it with houses, although the psychology is taking a breather. You are seeing it with baby formula. I expect that mentality to slowly expand to more areas of the economy. If you need something these days, you can usually find a used one for a ridiculously cheap price on craigslist or FB marketplace. That is going to come to an end, and I expect home prices to be significantly higher in 5 years than they are now.

As an aside, a similar chart for rents would probably show similar or worse pain. People are internalizing that and its going to lead to an inflation mindset. Velocity of money will increase.
 

Lancers32

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I moved out of NJ totally in 2015 and for a 1BR garden apartment in a nice area of Monmouth County I was paying $1K a month. The rent in similar apartments in the surrounding areas are now anywhere from $1500-$1700. True that it most likely increases year by year but at least you are not locked into a house if home prices collapse. If you have kids you might not have much choice you pretty much have to bite the bullet and buy.

I would imagine the same thing is true in my area of NC. A decent apt in a safe area is at least what you would pay in NJ. They talk about a supply problem but I am seeing a ton of new developments going up Raleigh and Durham. No land and on the small side.
 

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Fiat,
Spent a couple of hours with the top agent for a national homebuilder yesterday. She is a selling machine, lives it breathes it... she told us how factors external to normal discussion were causing fall throughs on new contracts. One persons twenty something son dropped dead, another young couple were buying with granny but she is now terminal, two others qualified last September but the final credit check kicked them out on percentages. One agent with one perspective but it mirrors what I'm hearing, which is that overall inflation coupled with higher payments is eliminating some and causing many others to pause... pause in this market is as good as a non participant.

Now to support your position, three homes have sold without listing in our sub division. Buyer agent handling both sides at 3%.. So technically the market is still roaring. What I've been trying to convey is the future. The story is different and not nearly as many external market buyers driving prices.... Eventually we'll all know, but taxes and HOA increases are the latest hurdle. Some 25% +...
 

Fiat Metaler

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Fiat,
Spent a couple of hours with the top agent for a national homebuilder yesterday. She is a selling machine, lives it breathes it... she told us how factors external to normal discussion were causing fall throughs on new contracts. One persons twenty something son dropped dead, another young couple were buying with granny but she is now terminal, two others qualified last September but the final credit check kicked them out on percentages. One agent with one perspective but it mirrors what I'm hearing, which is that overall inflation coupled with higher payments is eliminating some and causing many others to pause... pause in this market is as good as a non participant.

Now to support your position, three homes have sold without listing in our sub division. Buyer agent handling both sides at 3%.. So technically the market is still roaring. What I've been trying to convey is the future. The story is different and not nearly as many external market buyers driving prices.... Eventually we'll all know, but taxes and HOA increases are the latest hurdle. Some 25% +...

I sold a house in November with an appraisal contingency; I got a good price for the sale but it did not appraise as prices were moving just too fast. I did sell it for a nice price though, even though it needed some work.

In Richmond Va, I know several people looking for houses and they report that full price offers with financing or appraisal contingencies are not being accepted. There is just too little supply relative to demand.
 

Fiat Metaler

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I oved out of NJ totally in 2015 and for a 1BR garden apsurrounding areas are now anywhere from $1500-$1700 rue that it most likely increases year by year but at least you are not locked into a house if home prices collapse.

Well everyone has a different perspective on risk. Personally I am less concerned about the risk of being locked into a house at current prices and rates than I would be about being the risk of being locked out of finding a place I could afford. In fact, I bought way more house thhann I needed inn Dec. 2020 because I expected inflation. I am glad I did because I would not be able to afford the house I got if I had waited. Conservatively the value of my house has increased 30% since then. I'm going to invest about 8% of the purchase price in upgrades/updates, and expect to sell it for 50% more than what I paid for it.

Also, it looks like rates may have peaked north of 5.5% and are already down to 5.25.
 

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Seriously looking at selling my place and leaving the country. With rising interest rates though I may be to late to this. House needs work but should I bother doing it or just leave it for the new owners to do? Things like 3 rooms need new carpet. Kitchen could use some work. The master bath needs updating but works fine. To me those are cosmetic things that the new owner would want to do themselves. New windows on the other hand are things that I should do.
4 bed 2 1/2 bath. Passive solar, south facing, very well insulated and burns less than 2 cord a year for heating in the winter. Also embankment house so stays cooler in the summer as well. Built in 87. 30 yr roof still has 13 years left on it. Just under 19 acres. Gardens and fruit trees. 2 pear, 4 apple, 15 plum, 2 cherry. 1 1/4 miles down a private dirt road. Zillow says 250-350. I'm happy with the lower number.
what country would you move to?
 

Cigarlover

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I sold a house in November with an appraisal contingency; I got a good price for the sale but it did not appraise as prices were moving just too fast. I did sell it for a nice price though, even though it needed some work.

In Richmond Va, I know several people looking for houses and they report that full price offers with financing or appraisal contingencies are not being accepted. There is just too little supply relative to demand.
My daughter is about 45 min outside of DC. Rents are now north of 3k. They have tried buying a place there a couple of times. 500-600k gets you a run down POS.
This market needs a serious correction. Powell will get it one way or the other and I do think he will keep raising rates until inflation ceases or at least gets under control. (Back to 2%).
The goal of this administration seems to be to put the final nail in the coffin of this once great country. Everything they do is the worst possible decision. They will kill consumerism and already are. I know a lot of people that were doing very ok last year and are barely hanging on this year. Higher interest rates and a tighter money supply will kill the consumer. The government doesn't care about you and me. they want to destroy the dollar and bring in the totalitarian system of the digital currency.
I posted this in the lunatic fringe thread as well but also seems appropriate here for those that are interested.
do a YT search

Francis Hunt: The Dollar System is in its Death Throes​

It's on palisades gold radio channel.
 

Cigarlover

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Cigarlover

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what country would you move to?
Cuba is an easy one since it's so close and it also is at rock bottom so any collapse is barely going to be felt by them. They collapsed long ago. I look at that as more of a quick escape if things get so bad here that I want out at least temporarily. Grab 10k and a plane ticket and that will last a very long time there.

Portugal is attractive because of it RE prices. You can buy a vineyard there for well under 100k. Raw land is cheap or other properties with land and a house all cheap. I ignore the city life and prices, I want to be as far away from people as possible. I don't care about services and amenities as I pretty much strive to be as self sufficient as possible no matter where I go. (In Cuba some things just won't be available so that's a big downside as well) Looking at some Portugal expat forums it appears Californians are really liking Portugal which moved them way down on my list even with the cheap RE. Lots of anti trump comments on the forums by potential expats too and just not people I want to live with.

The last 3 countries I am starting to look at are Colombia, Chile, Argentina. Uraquay is also on the list. Columbia is the most expensive but also closest to home if I need to run back to the US to visit or bury family members. I haven't done any price comparisons on shipping household goods (Maybe 1/2 a container) but it makes sense that Colombia is the closest to probably the least expensive. Probably has thehihest crime rate though so bottom of the list. Places in northern Colombia like Santa Marta are probably ok, maybe medallion as well since they have a large ex pat community.
Argentina I haven't looked at seriously yet but since they are always in collapse mode, prices there were very reasonable last time I looked. Again I would stay out of the cities and go out to Mendoza or surrounding areas.

Uruguay is also very reasonable. Talked to a RE guy there and 10 acre farm with a house is about 50k out in the country.

Chile is the place I like the most but also very far away. Reasonable prices out in the country, good fishing too. Nice lakes for salmon and trout and your allowed to grow your own.

My requirements are probably different than others. I need inexpensive RE prices (I look at the annual average income for each country to get an idea of where things should be versus what the listed gringo price should be.)
I also need to be able to replace my store of food as soon as possible. Someplace like Argentina with lots of good quality beef should be able to fill a freezer cheap and fast. Wheat and grains may be an issue in all of those places
More than likely I am going to have to sell my place by the end of the summer or be stuck here. If I do sell then I will probably travel around down there for a few months and visit Uruguay, Argentina then jump over the mountains and hit Chile. If I'm not happy with any of them then I can hit Colombia on the way back.

If I don't sell my place then I am stuck here. Not the worst place to be in a collapse and I am well prepped in any event.
 

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Cuba is an easy one since it's so close and it also is at rock bottom so any collapse is barely going to be felt by them. They collapsed long ago. I look at that as more of a quick escape if things get so bad here that I want out at least temporarily. Grab 10k and a plane ticket and that will last a very long time there.

Portugal is attractive because of it RE prices. You can buy a vineyard there for well under 100k. Raw land is cheap or other properties with land and a house all cheap. I ignore the city life and prices, I want to be as far away from people as possible. I don't care about services and amenities as I pretty much strive to be as self sufficient as possible no matter where I go. (In Cuba some things just won't be available so that's a big downside as well) Looking at some Portugal expat forums it appears Californians are really liking Portugal which moved them way down on my list even with the cheap RE. Lots of anti trump comments on the forums by potential expats too and just not people I want to live with.

The last 3 countries I am starting to look at are Colombia, Chile, Argentina. Uraquay is also on the list. Columbia is the most expensive but also closest to home if I need to run back to the US to visit or bury family members. I haven't done any price comparisons on shipping household goods (Maybe 1/2 a container) but it makes sense that Colombia is the closest to probably the least expensive. Probably has thehihest crime rate though so bottom of the list. Places in northern Colombia like Santa Marta are probably ok, maybe medallion as well since they have a large ex pat community.
Argentina I haven't looked at seriously yet but since they are always in collapse mode, prices there were very reasonable last time I looked. Again I would stay out of the cities and go out to Mendoza or surrounding areas.

Uruguay is also very reasonable. Talked to a RE guy there and 10 acre farm with a house is about 50k out in the country.

Chile is the place I like the most but also very far away. Reasonable prices out in the country, good fishing too. Nice lakes for salmon and trout and your allowed to grow your own.

My requirements are probably different than others. I need inexpensive RE prices (I look at the annual average income for each country to get an idea of where things should be versus what the listed gringo price should be.)
I also need to be able to replace my store of food as soon as possible. Someplace like Argentina with lots of good quality beef should be able to fill a freezer cheap and fast. Wheat and grains may be an issue in all of those places
More than likely I am going to have to sell my place by the end of the summer or be stuck here. If I do sell then I will probably travel around down there for a few months and visit Uruguay, Argentina then jump over the mountains and hit Chile. If I'm not happy with any of them then I can hit Colombia on the way back.

If I don't sell my place then I am stuck here. Not the worst place to be in a collapse and I am well prepped in any event.
Wow, you have put a lot of thought into this. I vote Portugal :) I think visiting is a great idea. You will get a first hand look. The timing is tricky though. I look for real issues to start late summer and early fall. Its a huge decision. Too bad we don't have a crystal ball. I do know one thing. I don't want to do SHTF is a cold climate.. nope.
 

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I haven't done any price comparisons on shipping household goods (Maybe 1/2 a container) but it makes sense that Colombia is the closest to probably the least expensive.

Shipping rates have tripled since Trump left office. But the real cost is import duties, not shipping. I don't know about Columbia but they are very high in Costa Rica.
 

Cigarlover

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Wow, you have put a lot of thought into this. I vote Portugal :) I think visiting is a great idea. You will get a first hand look. The timing is tricky though. I look for real issues to start late summer and early fall. Its a huge decision. Too bad we don't have a crystal ball. I do know one thing. I don't want to do SHTF is a cold climate.. nope.
Yes I have done some homework. probably more than most over the years. Looked at ex pat forums for lots of different countries. Most of the same questions are asked over and over so all the info you need is usually on the forums already.

The one nice thing about Chile or many other countries outside the US is that healthcare is inexpensive. So are prescriptions if you have to have one. Down there they do everything possible to truly make you well and not just push drugs on you. Listening to a podcast now where he talks about all this stuff down there. IMO I think it's still relatively affordable because it is so far from the US. Helth insurance I 32 bucks a month for this guys family I think he said.
 

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Shipping rates have tripled since Trump left office. But the real cost is import duties, not shipping. I don't know about Columbia but they are very high in Costa Rica.
Costa Rica used to be a serious contender and if I had the money it still would be. It's gotten pretty expensive though.
 

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Some of these countries have low taxes or costs of living, but its impossible to bring much with you. Something like a computer or a phone will cost more there because of the taxes.
 

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Costa Rica used to be a serious contender and if I had the money it still would be. It's gotten pretty expensive though.
One thing I would be looking at is how each country handled lockdown. I think Australia and Canada surprised the world.