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GOLD IN FIFTH WAVE

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dawn
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http://news.goldseek.com/PeterCooper/1373550660.php



Veteran gold guru and chairman of the Tanzanian Royalty Exploration Corporation, Jim Sinclair told an audience of 591 in Vancouver today that the gold price correction was over.

‘This is probably a historic day for the gold price,’ he said. ‘With the $1,275 barrier broken we are back on the way up.’

The gold price jumped after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said ‘highly accommodative’ monetary policy will be needed for the ‘foreseeable future’ following a speech in Cambridge, Massachusetts after US markets had closed.

But Mr. Sinclair noted that technical indicators had been pointing to a change of direction this week. He expects gold to retest its all-time high of $1,923 by August 2013 and advance to $2,400 before succumbing to another correction.

Further out he has $3,200-$3,500 in his sights with much higher prices likely if the physical metals takeover from the futures pit as the price setting mechanism for precious metals, something he says might happen in three months’ time when the Comex inventories get too low for it to continue.


GURU IS BULLISH (as always) and CHELA IS BEARISH (DAN NORCINI)
 

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dawn
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http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.in/

change in tune..................or skeptic.............



Back to gold - from a technical perspective, it finally cleared overhead resistance on the chart (see above) as the move occurred in relatively thin trading conditions allowing the market to experience only light selling pressure as stops were run. You can see that there are now two levels of chart resistance that need to fall for the metal to get a little more upside excitement. The first is near $1290 which is basically what has stopped this evening's progress. The second is psychological round number resistance at $1300. The latter will be a BIGGIE. If it goes, you will see some more sharp short covering and a good shot at $1350 and a solid end to the short term downtrend.
 

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Wave 1, which is divided into minute waves i,ii,iii,iv,and v
will be counted and recounted here as per the progress of gold price.

The assumption here is that correction is over and we are starting fresh upmove.

Wave i

(i) 1180.20 - 1212.11 = 31.91
(ii) 1212.11 - 1186.73 = 25.38
(iii) 1186.73 - 1244.85 = 58.12
(iv) 1244.85 - 1225.17 = 19.68
(v) 1225.17 - 1267.43 = 42.2
6



Correction abc of Wave ii


a = 1267.43 - 1236.82 = 30.61
b = 1236.82 - 1260.05 = 23.23
c = 1260.82 - 1208.12 = 51.93



Wave iii

(i) 1208.12 - 1260.30 = 52.18
(ii) 1260.30 - 1242.48 = 17.82
(iii)1242.48 - ?(1325.96)



when I started typing the rate was 1286
 

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dawn
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http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1373571076.php

When they have lent gold in recent decades, Western central banks have not really wanted it back; rather they have wanted the gold price suppressed or controlled and the value of their currencies and bonds thereby supported.

That is probably why, throughout the last decade, the gold price rose steadily even as practically every week brought announcements of gold sales by Western central banks or the International Monetary Fund. No new gold was hitting the market in these "sales." Rather, most likely the "sales" were just cash settlement cancellation of leases for gold that had hit the market many years before and could not be recalled without spiking the market upward too fast for the comfort of the market riggers.

-- when the gold reserves of the participating central banks were depleted to whatever was considered the critical point. Gold sales and leasing would stop, gold would be more or less officially revalued much higher, and the central banks that had lost their metal through sales and leasing would buy it back at the higher price and begin the next era of price suppression.
 

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dawn
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A must read for Technical analysis followers, off-course the wisdom is provided post damage, but still may help for next 10 years of gold patterns.


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1373897100.php


The breakout of the little triangle kept stalling and failed to move out like all the other impulse legs did. Below is one of the charts that I used in the article, All Hail the Queen, that shows one of the most beautiful bull markets that a chartists could ever chart. As you can see each consolidation pattern broke out to the upside in an impulse move followed by another consolidation pattern. Note the last triangle at the top of the chart. At the time I thought this was going to be just another consolidation pattern followed by an impulse leg up just like all the rest. As you can see the top blue triangle did in fact breakout to the upside but there was no follow through. The longer it took for gold to make up its mind the more it began to look like a false breakout. I kept waiting for the backtest and then the move higher but the price action just drifted slowly down not creating any hysteria.


As you can see everything looked fine at the backtest point on the chart that had the top blue rail of the triangle and the bottom rail of the 2008 uptrend that should hold support. It did for about 4 weeks or so when the price action started to break below the 2008 bottom rail of the uptrend channel. That was all I needed to see to know something was amiss. This is where following the price action can keep one out of trouble. The long trade was failing and an important support rail was being broken to the downside. As you can see there was one more backtest to the top blue rail of the triangle that could have saved the day but that was not going to happen. The apex of a triangle is a strong area of support or resistance depending on which way the stock is moving as all the energy is focused to that one point.. A break down through the apex of the blue triangle signaled bad news ahead. For me it signaled a top in place which was even hard for me to believe as I was a staunch gold bull. The charts don’t lie it’s just the interpretation of the chart is where most run into trouble.

The chart above shows you why the precious metals complex is under pressure right now. Like the 1990′s when the stocks markets were in a major bull market, the precious metals were weak, as money was flowing into the stock markets. The exact same thing is happening again today. Money is leaving the precious metals complex and is finding a better return in the stock markets. I know how hard it is for some folks to believe how the stock markets can go up, with everything you read and hear and how can the precious metals complex be under such severe pressure. It’s in the charts folks. I don’t make up these charts, investors do. I only interpret their behavior by following the price action and pay no attention to the so called experts. Clarity and perspective are a must when one puts their hard earned capital to work in the markets


Summer 2015 is the D- Day
 

REO 54

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Gold Longest Below 200-Day Average Since ’01: Technical Analysis

Gold’s slide into a bear market that wiped $66 billion from the value of funds backed by the metal pushed prices into the longest run below their 200-day moving average since the 12-year bull market began in 2001.
The attached chart shows bullion has settled below the 200-day measure for five months since Feb. 11. That’s the most since the eight months to March 2001, the year gold began the longest run of annual gains in at least nine decades.
Gold is now heading for the first annual drop in 13 years after some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value. Holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded products fell 25 percent since peaking in December and reached the lowest in more than three years last week. Moving averages are used by some analysts and traders who study such charts to indicate trends or future price movements of a security.
“We’re in a downtrend in the short and medium term,” said Clive Lambert, the founding director of research and training company FuturesTechs.com Ltd. in Billericay, England. “Back above $1,300, there’s a little bit of pressure off.”
Gold for immediate delivery slumped 23 percent this year in London to $1,285.52 an ounce. Prices, which set a record $1,921.15 in September 2011, entered a bear market in April and reached a 34-month low of $1,180.50 on June 28. The metal is the third-worst performer this year in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities, behind silver and corn.
Federal Reserve
Bullion’s drop accelerated after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said June 19 that bond buying could slow if the economy improves. He said July 10 that the U.S. still needs stimulative monetary policy, the same day minutes of a June meeting showed division among policy makers on when to slow and end asset purchases. The central bank buys $85 billion of Treasuries and mortgage debt each month.
The $1,285 to $1,300 area and $1,120 are “important” technical levels that may help support prices or accelerate declines in the short term, Lambert said. The $1,285 price is near the 38.2 percent retracement of the rally from 2001 through 2011, one of the levels singled out in so-called Fibonacci analysis. The $1,120 price is derived from a trend line drawn from the end of 2001 on a monthly log scale chart.
“Below $1,120, you’re talking potential down to about $890,” he said. “We have had some pretty nasty down moves and it could well be more of the same.”
A combination of resistance levels in the $1,320 to $1,340 area will probably spur selling and a climb above about $1,522 would be needed to provide a more bullish outlook, according to Barclays Plc. A drop below about $1,180 may push prices toward $1,150 to $1,100, it said in a report yesterday.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in an asset or security. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low.
To contact the reporter for this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-day-average-since-01-technical-analysis.html
 

d-lod

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Personally gold is taking a lot of time to reach 1325, that suggest weakness in metal.





http://news.goldseek.com/InsigniaConsultants/1373954580.php


Be prepared for a big two percent one way move in gold and silver any time.
Markets look forward to Bernanke’s testimony tomorrow
The possible situations in gold and silver are as below

(A) Gold does not break $1317 by Friday then it will fall to $1247 and $1190 first.

(B) Gold breaks past $1317 by Friday then it can rise to $1367 and $1416

(C) Technically a daily close over $1280 today will be positive for gold.

(D) Silver does not break $2040 by tomorrow then it will fall to $1875 and $1790 first while a break of $2040 will result in $2125-$2375.

Markets have factored in the Federal reserve reducing its bond buying. The big question is by how much and the time period. The shorter the time period of withdrawal from total QE3 then longer will be the continuance of an overall gold and vice-versa. In my view withdrawal from QE3 below $40 billion a month will be difficult for the Federal Reserve in the next nine months. Thereafter US economic fundamentals will decide the future course.

COMEX TECHNICAL VIEW

COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2013 – current price $1282.0

Bullish over $1272.00 with $1296.00 and $1317.00 price target

Bearish below $1262.0 with $1249.00 and $1236.00 as price target

Neutral Zone between $1262.00-$1272

Break point: $1284.00

Gold needs to trade over $1285 to target $1296-$1306
There will be sellers only if gold trades below $1280.
MCX GOLD AUGUST 2013 – prices in Indian rupees

Bullish over $1970 with $2034-$2216 as price target

Bearish below $1948 with $1915-$1875 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1948-$1970

Break point: $2034.00

Silver needs to break and trade $2034 today for another big rally. In case silver does not break $2034 by tomorrow then it will fall back to $1940 and $1915
COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2013 – current price $315.85

Bullish over $316.00 with $323.20 -$330.00 as price target

Bearish below $311.00 with $307.80-$301.80 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $311.00--$316.00

Break point: $320.70

Unless copper breaks past $324 one needs to be careful going long.
Key support is at $315
NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT) - current price $106.53

Bullish over $105.20 with $107.30 and $110.20 as price target

Bearish below $104.00 with $102.20 and $99.50 as price target

Break point: $107.20

Unless crude oil breaks past $112 we prefer a sell on rise strategy
Today there will be sellers only below $104.00
 

d-lod

dawn
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Western Central Bankers are mischief maker or stupid? A timeless question that would be answered by time alone.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1374001668.php


The recent decline in gold prices and the drain from physical ETFs have been interpreted by the media as signaling the end of the gold bull market. However, our analysis of the supply and demand dynamics underlying the gold market does not support this thesis.

For example, Non-Western Central Banks have been increasing their holdings of gold at a very rapid pace, going from 6,300 tonnes in Q1 2009 to more than 8,200 tonnes at the end of Q1 2013 (Figure 1a) while physical inventories are declining (Figure 1b) (or being raided, as we argued in the May 2013 Markets at a Glance)1 and physical demand from large (Figure 1c) and small (Figure 1d) scale buyers remains solid.

The gold lending chain: Personally I feel it is nothing else than selling gold in name of landing, it is a one way street played unwell by Western Bank.

The gold leasing mechanism works in the following way (also shown in Schema 1 below):8

A Central Bank leases its gold to a bullion bank for a pre-specified period (say 1 month). In exchange, the Central Bank receives cash for the value of the gold and has to pay the Gold Forward Offered Rates (GOFO) to the bullion bank. Then, the Central Bank lends the cash on the market and receives LIBOR for 1 month, with net proceeds of LIBOR minus the GOFO, which is called the lease rate. If the lease rate is positive (and it usually is), then it is profitable for the Central Bank to lease its gold. A high lease rate increases the incentive for Central Banks to lease their gold.

The bullion bank, once it receives the gold from the Central Bank, sells it on the gold spot market and collects the cash (depressing the price in the process by increasing supply in the market). For the bullion bank, this transaction is cash flow neutral and pays a carry (the GOFO rate) (the bullion bank can also buy the gold forward one month to make this a risk free transaction, or hope the price of gold stays constant or declines when it’s time to buy it back). Thus, the GOFO rate is a measure of “how much the bullion bank desires physical gold”. If it is small (relative to LIBOR, which implies a large lease rate), the bullion bank wants gold. If it becomes negative, then it means the bullion bank is ready to pay (negative carry) the Central Bank for the privilege to lease its gold (presumably to deliver physical gold to clients that redeem physical gold from their unallocated accounts).

-ve rates were the reason for boom of 2009 -2011, so be prepared for similar rise of $1969.60 /- minimum that gives price of $3149.60, If we consider 1180 as bottom.



It now seems that bullion banks are in desperate need of bullion, as evidenced by the increasingly negative GOFO rates we are seeing (Figure 4 below). Remember that a negative GOFO rate signifies that the bullion banks are ready to pay holders of physical to lease their gold, in this case for a month. Historically, negative GOFO rates have happened in very few occurrences. The last one was in November 2008 at the height of the financial crisis and after which gold rose 156% from through to peak. Before that, we saw negative GOFO rates in March of 2001 (about the start of the bull market) and September of 1999 (announcement of the first CBGA).

http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1374005526.php

-- and identifies the Hong Kong gold refiner that is recasting Western gold, including Western central bank gold, for the Asian market.

Kaye remarks that this movement and recasting of gold should hardly be a sensation because it is completely consistent with everything known about the current gold market.

Kaye also denounces Western exchange-traded gold funds as facilitating "enormous potential mischief and abuse" of gold investors at the hands of the bullion banks that are exclusively authorized to put gold into and take gold out of the funds.
 
Last edited:

d-lod

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Personally gold is taking a lot of time to reach 1325, that suggest weakness in metal.





http://news.goldseek.com/InsigniaConsultants/1373954580.php
According to above chartist, gold is in neutral zone while silver is in bearish zone. The POS counts are showing bearish abc correction rather than impulsive 1,2,3,4, and 5 wave pattern. Traders be away from market till the direction could be sought, for physical investor its a chance to use some % of FRN. (if they have left any).

I will be recounting extended wave C for any chance of terminal wave extension.
 

d-lod

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CHINA buying Barrick Gold

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wilcox/2013-07-12-China-to-Buy-Barrick-Gold-Gold-Miners-Weekly-Recap.html



With the gold supply currently constrained and the paper gold market in an uncertain state, one question that arises is, with eastern physical demand depleting western physical gold stocks, how will China continue to source its ever expanding gold demand?

Securing adequate supply to support demand is likely a major concern for China. This realization has led us to speculate that they may soon look to satisfy part of their enormous gold appetite through the acquisition of at least one of the major gold miners.

As a group, the shares and market caps of gold miners are at levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the current challenges faced by the sector are well documented by industry observers. One company that has been hit especially hard is the world’s largest gold producer, Canadian miner, Barrick Gold Corp.

Using information drawn from our comparison table above, one share of Barrick, a company that has 140 million ounces of proven and probable reserves, 7.3 million ounces of annual production from 27 mines in 9 countries, and US$2.3 billion in cash, is worth approximately $15 today, which represents a paltry market cap of just $15 billion.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Gold ABC counts are as follow

Field uses LBMA closing price, so there may be some small deceferencies in %

A= 1920 - 1522 = 398 i.e. 20% decline from the top of 1920
B= 1522 - 1795 = 273
C= 1795 - 1180 = 615 i.e 34% decline from top of 1795 (C = A x 1.6)


The only challenge is lack of positive divergence.

Looking at the correction of C WAVE, that is from 1795 to 1180, it has been a very irregular correction with it showing 5 and 3 wave structure,

(i) 1795 - 1672 = 123
(ii) 1672 - 1754 = 81
(iii)1754 - 1625 = 128
(iv)1625 - 1697 = 71
(v) 1697 - 1555 = 141


The equivalency of corrective wave ii and iv, is seen here.

1555 to 1616 is = wave X

Than again 3 wave structure initiate from 1616

(a) 1616 - 1321 = 295
(b) 1321 - 1488 = 166
(c) 1488 - 1180 = 302

There is equivalency of % of wave a and c decline. These approximate prices based on netdania weekly chart, so figures are approx.

Symmetry of decline are prominent, daily chart is showing positive divergence but not the weekly and monthly!
 
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I'm only peaking in to say the bear ain't over and glad you finally found Rambus. He's my favorite and I have disagreed with him in the past at my own peril. I'm going back to my little cave now.

oh yeah, stocks are where it's at, despite what the "fundamentals" are saying... markets are irrational. :p
 

bemac

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And it didn't get there. And silver wasn't able to hit 20 again. I agree, more on the downside to come. Bring it, bemac has cash ready to get spent.
 

d-lod

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And it didn't get there. And silver wasn't able to hit 20 again. I agree, more on the downside to come. Bring it, bemac has cash ready to get spent.
SILVER IS USED TO EIGHT WEEKS CONSOLIDATION BEFORE BREAKING UP, THE CONSOLIDATION WAS BETWEEN PRICE 8.41 TO 10.79 IN 2008.
 

d-lod

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EW counts are working for Gold, Silver is tightening its coil, be ready for a ride on upside with more momentum.:musical_note:
 

d-lod

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Wave 1, which is divided into minute waves i,ii,iii,iv,and v
will be counted and recounted here as per the progress of gold price.

The assumption here is that correction is over and we are starting fresh upmove.

Wave i

(i) 1180.20 - 1212.11 = 31.91
(ii) 1212.11 - 1186.73 = 25.38
(iii) 1186.73 - 1244.85 = 58.12
(iv) 1244.85 - 1225.17 = 19.68
(v) 1225.17 - 1267.43 = 42.2
6



Correction abc of Wave ii


a = 1267.43 - 1236.82 = 30.61
b = 1236.82 - 1260.05 = 23.23
c = 1260.82 - 1208.12 = 51.93



Wave iii

(i) 1208.12 - 1260.30 = 52.18
(ii) 1260.30 - 1242.48 = 17.82
(iii)1242.48 - ?(1325.96)



when I started typing the rate was 1286

when I started typing the rate was 1286[/QUOTE]

1323 is the top that gold made till now, The count of 1325 was given based on wave iii as 1.6 x i that is

i = 52.18
iii = 52.18 x 1.6 = 83.48, =
1242.48 (bottom of wave ii) + 83.48 = 1325.96. or if the wave extend to 2.6 than it could reach 1378
 

d-lod

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when I started typing the rate was 1286
1323 is the top that gold made till now, The count of 1325 was given based on wave iii as 1.6 x i that is

i = 52.18
iii = 52.18 x 1.6 = 83.48, =
1242.48 (bottom of wave ii) + 83.48 = 1325.96. or if the wave extend to 2.6 than it could reach 1378
[/QUOTE]

Guys thanks for visiting this thread, I have started expounding on my numbers, so doesn't know, whether still my analysis is alien to others? or is it understandable?

1325.96.............or 1378...........
 

jelly

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sounds clear to me. Do you think gold and silver will have a retest of the lows eventually?
 

d-lod

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sounds clear to me. Do you think gold and silver will have a retest of the lows eventually?
Thanks for your response jelly, otherwise lack of response was the reason, that I am ready to close both my thread.
Gimmers are not TA friendly, that is why TA has reduced to 7% at GIM.


Your query is really what is needed at this time to understand.

History resonate. Silver had retested as well as gold. Silver made previous bottom at 8.41 and rose to 10.79 = 2.38, retested bottom at 8.77 = 2.02$.

While gold made bottom at 681 and rose to 777 = 86 $, and corrected back to 699 that was drop of 78. In gold particularly gold there is a big gap of 13 - 16 dollars on various charts. That has to be retested 1297 - 1310, but many at times in bullish market they are not retested and called run away gap.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:gaps_and_gap_analysi



Runaway Gaps

Runaway gaps are also called measuring gaps, and are best described as gaps that are caused by increased interest in the stock. For runaway gaps to the upside, it usually represents traders who did not get in during the initial move of the up trend and while waiting for a retracement in price, decided it was not going to happen. Increased buying interest happens all of a sudden, and the price gaps above the previous day's close. This type of runaway gap represents an almost panic state in traders. Also, a good uptrend can have runaway gaps caused by significant news events that cause new interest in the stock. In the chart below, note the significant increase in volume during and after the runaway gap.

The non bullishness is either suggesting a storm is being brewed, or that bears have not had there fill.
 

glockngold

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Thanks for your response jelly, otherwise lack of response was the reason, that I am ready to close both my thread.
d-lod,
I am the kid in the back of the class that is scared the teacher will call on him.
I usually have no idea what you are talking about, but I show up every day in hopes I learn something.
 

andial

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That has to be retested 1297 - 1310, but many at times in bullish market they are not retested and called run away gap.
Zed stated in his blog that he is looking for a possible retest in the 1,300 area, just an FYI.
 

davycoppitt

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Ive never posted in this thread, but have read every other post since the beginning. Sorry, I should have been leaving thanks.
 

d-lod

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d-lod,
I am the kid in the back of the class that is scared the teacher will call on him.
I usually have no idea what you are talking about
, but I show up every day in hopes I learn something.
I love them - the back bencher..................

The new learning has "asking" as crucial component, when no query comes, the thread dies. I sold my position between 1323 - 1339, should have posted...............
I usually have no idea what you are talking about

I would be interested to expand upon my view, just ask and I will definitely explain in detail, so drop in anytime..you are welcome.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Zed stated in his blog that he is looking for a possible retest in the 1,300 area, just an FYI.
He was right, the gap between 1297 - 1310 needed to be filled. All that story about gold short squeeze was not right otherwise the EW theory suggest that in commodity the the fifth wave is extended, and it could easily reached 1378 level.

Have not such truncated waves since long time as this time.

wave 1 = 1180-1267 = 87
wave 2 = 1267-1208 = 59
wave 3 = 1208-1298 = 90
wave 4 = 1298-1267 = 31
wave 5 = 1267-1347 = 80


Usually atleast one of the impulsive wave should have been of 1.6 times magnitude of 80(length of lowest wave), looking at depth of correction and short squeeze.

The two corrective waves should be of equal %, but here wave 4 is 53% of wave 2

so something is missing, either EW cannot applied any more to gold/silver or market has become erratic.
 

d-lod

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I still hang around your threads Dlod. May not say anything right now but always checking in.
I am no expert and need your opinion to make this thread stand on its own. Right from the beginning, I was propounding on this correction to be deeper, if that theory had more discussion, we all would not have burnt our fingers between 1550-1795............:burnout::rolleyes:
 

d-lod

dawn
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Hey big d,
I read just about everything you ever post.
Regards,
Thanks, in reality we need wisdom from you guys. During 2005-2006, I was visitor to GIM and observed great technical analysis being projected form experienced traders and investors, my wish list has that as top priority, to learn from your combined wisdom,,,,,,,,,,,so please do post your views. It would be good to start a new thread by you guys, would love to learn............

SUPPORT IS WELCOME.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Ive never posted in this thread, but have read every other post since the beginning. Sorry, I should have been leaving thanks.

Many times it get lonely, without comments and discussion, it just become one way street. Its discussion and exchange of info that churn out qualitative material.

Do participate davycoppitt.
 

Silver Buck

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I remember when the metals were going strong you were one of the few who said that not only would they go down, but that they were due to go down far.

I remember when you said Silver could easily (maybe even should easily) go into the 20s, maybe even mid to lower 20s, and people scoffed at that.

You even mentioned long before Silver dropped to the low 30s how when (not if) the price hit certain levels under 30 (I think 26.XX was a critical one) that people were going to be shocked when the price could test 20, or lower.

While most found it ridiculous to even consider, and I didn't want to believe that it could go that low, I listened, studied, and asked a couple of questions along the way (but not nearly enough). Because of your threads, and listening to some other 'contrarians' and doing my own research, I was NOT shocked by the drops, and was able to sell off some of my working position (not my long term hold position) with relative confidence at 34.45 (or so) last September. I announced to all that I was going to do so and some said I had balls to do so (and maybe even a bit crazy).

To me it was simply a smart thing to do, taking a bit off of the table while the getting was good.

I also sold a wee bit at 27.XX, but I didn't feel so good at the time (since it was either sell a bit, or take out a short term loan). But I didn't feel as though I was getting hurt by the price and I saw through my own TA that the price was still heading down.

Once it got to 20, I've been looking to get back in, but due to slow business at my shop due to construction, I have not been in a position to pull the trigger. But due to knowing about how the price runs in waves, if I miss this trough, I can purchase during the next one when I am better positioned.

Thanks for helping me out, and please don't get discouraged if not enough of us students don't raise our hands often enough.
 

917601

Mother Lode Found
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Get these out and use them, you will have no further questions. Elliot figured this out years ago , as did Sinclair......not only the " numbers" themselves, but the time zones.....all hail 1.618......please be aware it exists in 3D, hard to chart in 3 dimensions which explains some predicted misses.

http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?49932-Fibonacci-time-zones
 

d-lod

dawn
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I remember when the metals were going strong you were one of the few who said that not only would they go down, but that they were due to go down far.

I remember when you said Silver could easily (maybe even should easily) go into the 20s, maybe even mid to lower 20s, and people scoffed at that.

You even mentioned long before Silver dropped to the low 30s how when (not if) the price hit certain levels under 30 (I think 26.XX was a critical one) that people were going to be shocked when the price could test 20, or lower.

While most found it ridiculous to even consider, and I didn't want to believe that it could go that low, I listened, studied, and asked a couple of questions along the way (but not nearly enough). Because of your threads, and listening to some other 'contrarians' and doing my own research, I was NOT shocked by the drops, and was able to sell off some of my working position (not my long term hold position) with relative confidence at 34.45 (or so) last September. I announced to all that I was going to do so and some said I had balls to do so (and maybe even a bit crazy).

To me it was simply a smart thing to do, taking a bit off of the table while the getting was good.

I also sold a wee bit at 27.XX, but I didn't feel so good at the time (since it was either sell a bit, or take out a short term loan). But I didn't feel as though I was getting hurt by the price and I saw through my own TA that the price was still heading down.

Once it got to 20, I've been looking to get back in, but due to slow business at my shop due to construction, I have not been in a position to pull the trigger. But due to knowing about how the price runs in waves, if I miss this trough, I can purchase during the next one when I am better positioned.

Thanks for helping me out, and please don't get discouraged if not enough of us students don't raise our hands often enough.
SB

Thanks for accreditation,

Reading your post did suggest your belief in technical analysis.You did well. But without you guys the forum is not very interesting. So keep up, fighting for best strategies in life and participating in this thread.
 

Silver Buck

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I have been learning that the trend is your friend, and that TA helps with your timing. I bought on the way up during intra-day dips in '10 all the way to $27.50 and bought in small nibbles after that. However, I didn't listen to my common inner sense and start selling once it got above $40.

I truly believed that 'to the moon' we were going and the train had left the station.

However, that was a parabolic moonshot we witnessed, and most refused to believe that it would come crashing back down.

Once it started back down, most tried playing it off as an 'anticipated minor correction' before heading back toward the moon.

I finally listened to my common inner sense and opened my mind to take a closer look at TA and what it could do for me.

I may not have time to delve deep into EW and other forms of TA until late September (too many chores to do outside to spend quality time inside doing study).

Speaking of seasons, you once posted a chart of the cycle of the seasons. Do you still have that around?
 

southfork

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SB

Thanks for accreditation,

Reading your post did suggest your belief in technical analysis.You did well. But without you guys the forum is not very interesting. So keep up, fighting for best strategies in life and participating in this thread.
I think we all take things for granted, all the guys who spend time developing charts here, not only you but zed, and a few others give valuable contributions regardless of the ribbing some may take but it's all in the game. My thanks and Im sure from all here at gim for all the time and efforts you guys give putting this information together. LLAP
 

d-lod

dawn
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I think we all take things for granted, all the guys who spend time developing charts here, not only you but zed, and a few others give valuable contributions regardless of the ribbing some may take but it's all in the game. My thanks and Im sure from all here at gim for all the time and efforts you guys give putting this information together. LLAP
Southfork

It is not about valuable time or skill-set, but its about churning out qualitative analysis. Its ass...le time for any technician, to speak out loudly because of present scenario in PM. in past all of you were participating in making this thread give qualitative analysis to look forward to, but now it has been me and Ihslancers.

So bro in nutshell, I am looking forwrd to old good time;)
 

d-lod

dawn
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The following abc counts are based on assumption that gold has completed first minor wave 1 of III of Major THREE.

The minutte wave analysis would be given once present correction is complete.
This abc pattern will suggest counts for future analysis, and also may provide confirmation of completion of minor wave 1.

In case the minor wave has not completed it's course, than we will see further upside.

a = 1347.74 - 1308.98 = 38.76
b = 1308.98 - 1340.70 = 31.72
c = 1340.70 - 1301.00 = 39.00 / 1340.70 - 1278.69 = 62.01 (c = a x 1.6)


1300 / 1278.................present price 1335.
 

Silver Buck

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Is there a certain time period you look for your waves in, or is it purely the crests and troughs prices you look at?
 

d-lod

dawn
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Is there a certain time period you look for your waves in, or is it purely the crests and troughs prices you look at?
SB

The netdania has every-tool required for TA available, under heading of lines there is tool for "time fibo" that do provide the necessary info, but I rely more on MACD, MOMENTUM and RSI. The short term trend is recognizable by short term values of 2 for momentum and RSI, while for MACD, I use value of 4,9,3.

THE TIMING COMES WITH EXPERIENCE AND LOT OF LOSSES:p
 
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