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GOLD IN FIFTH WAVE

d-lod

dawn
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I have been learning that the trend is your friend, and that TA helps with your timing. I bought on the way up during intra-day dips in '10 all the way to $27.50 and bought in small nibbles after that. However, I didn't listen to my common inner sense and start selling once it got above $40.

I truly believed that 'to the moon' we were going and the train had left the station.

However, that was a parabolic moonshot we witnessed, and most refused to believe that it would come crashing back down.

Once it started back down, most tried playing it off as an 'anticipated minor correction' before heading back toward the moon.

I finally listened to my common inner sense and opened my mind to take a closer look at TA and what it could do for me.

I may not have time to delve deep into EW and other forms of TA until late September (too many chores to do outside to spend quality time inside doing study).

Speaking of seasons, you once posted a chart of the cycle of the seasons. Do you still have that around?
Do you mean this?

http://northcoastinvestmentresearch.wordpress.com/2009/02/02/the-kondratieff-cycle/



Kondratiev waves — also called Supercycles, surges, long waves or K-waves — are described as regular, sinusoidal cycles in the modern (capitalist) world economy. Averaging fifty and ranging from approximately forty to sixty years in length, the cycles consist of alternating periods between high sectoral growth and periods of slower growth. The Kondratieff wave cycle goes through four distinct phases of beneficial inflation (spring), stagflation (summer), beneficial deflation (autumn), and deflation (winter).
It was interesting to know that the economist was sentenced to jail for this.


he phases of Kondratieff’s waves also carry with them social shifts and changes in the public mood. The first stage of expansion and growth, the “Spring” stage, encompasses a social shift in which the wealth, accumulation, and innovation that are present in this first period of the cycle create upheavals and displacements in society. The economic changes result in redefining work and the role of participants in society. In the next phase, the “Summer” stagflation, there is a mood of affluence from the previous growth stage that changes the attitude towards work in society, creating inefficiencies. After this stage comes the season of deflationary growth, or the plateau period. The popular mood changes during this period as well. It shifts toward stability, normalcy, and isolationism after the policies and economics during unpopular excesses of war. Finally, the “Winter” stage, that of severe depression, includes the integration of previous social shifts and changes into the social fabric of society, supported by the shifts in innovation and technology.
 

917601

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A must read for Technical analysis followers, off-course the wisdom is provided post damage, but still may help for next 10 years of gold patterns.


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1373897100.php













Summer 2015 is the D- Day


Summer 2015 is the D- Day....

Can I throw in a further 3D " time" projection? You seem to be a master at the Wave projections, however the Fib timing " events" commonly do not happen as calculated, my thoughts on 1.618 usage are they still hit/miss another dimension, time. in other words, fib and wave are x and y, introduce z which would introduce an eliptical 3 d chart.( observed in all plant leave formations, look at the plant from a " top" view reveals Fib numbers ( angles) EXACTLY. I have charted timed events and the ones that always line up are ones that fall on or during the 7 year Shemitah years, ( 2001, 2008),next one begins Sept 2014 and ends Sept 2015, which 13 Sep 2015 is 29 Elul on the Hebrew ( Biblical ), calendar. Not much time to study the Fib and waves BACKWARDS from 13 Sep 2015 and cross check if they lined up with the wave charts prior to today- it could possibly predict more accurately the next two years " gap". Incidentally, we are coming upon another 50 year " cycle", a Jubilee year right after the next 7 year Shemitah cycle.
 
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southfork

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Southfork

It is not about valuable time or skill-set, but its about churning out qualitative analysis. Its ass...le time for any technician, to speak out loudly because of present scenario in PM. in past all of you were participating in making this thread give qualitative analysis to look forward to, but now it has been me and Ihslancers.

So bro in nutshell, I am looking forwrd to old good time;)
I understand but most including myself don't have the foggiest idea of how to read or do a chart, yours and the others efforts are very appreciated,
 

917601

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Not having the time, but you may as you have mastered the Fib relationship, I believe the universal elliptical constant, applied to Fib, can more accurately predict, instead of " hindsight".....
The Brunardot Series (BS)
http://www.physicsmathforums.com/showthread.php?t=99.....it applies a revised Fib number
sequence, as our planets and galaxy star formation are arranged in eliptical Fib numbers, and our time as measured on Earth is " eliptical", a correction to basic Fib could set in concrete which wave to speculate from.Because the Fibonacci sequence (FS) is incomplete and a subset of a more general series. There is little Natural logic to the choice of its first and second terms; in fact, its first two terms are debatable as to whether they are: 0, 1 or 1,1.

http://www.physicsmathforums.com/showthread.php?t=99

1,0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21......

2,2,4,6,10,16,26,42,..... Would more accurately identify "waves", and ID major and minors and imposters. The Brunardot Series demonstrates the uniform distribution of the Natural prime numbers . . . Nature's Units. That is; said primes, that are the value of certain focal radii, can be mapped with a simple algebraic function to the perigee of its respective Brunardot Ellipse that is generated from the sequences of said series.

PM me as It is hard to explain a revised Elliot wave theory.
 

917601

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I understand but most including myself don't have the foggiest idea of how to read or do a chart, yours and the others efforts are very appreciated,
SF, basic, Fib numbers have rules, one being Gods number 1.618, the other retracement being .618.

Proven, the gold high of 2008 was 1030, multipled by .618, gave a low which occurred Oct 08 of 680.

The gold high of 1900 multiplied by .618 gave a low in June 2013 of 1174, according to Kitco the low was 1190.

The fib numbers are close enough to predict high/lows, but wave and fib do not predict WHEN it happens...Fib "time" does not happen accurately with the Fib numbers, 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21.... WHEN is the code to be cracked.....my take, major moves happen during Fib eliptical time cycles...the one who can predict not the price of gold, ( Fib does that in hindsight), but WHEN it moves nails it. Believe they are tied to Sabbatical years, Shemitah, 7x7, and Jubilee years, 49. The Harbinger book proves this." When" is the question, Armstrong bases his cycles on the Sabbatical years also, no one person has put a defined cycle number to the proven Fib number equation.
 

d-lod

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I understand but most including myself don't have the foggiest idea of how to read or do a chart, yours and the others efforts are very appreciated,
That is why the asking, you may ask as many question as you want end result should be simplification of my language to easily assimilation level and sharpening of your continuous prediction power.;);):D:rolleyes:
 

d-lod

dawn
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SF, basic, Fib numbers have rules, one being Gods number 1.618, the other retracement being .618.

Proven, the gold high of 2008 was 1030, multipled by .618, gave a low which occurred Oct 08 of 680.

The gold high of 1900 multiplied by .618 gave a low in June 2013 of 1174, according to Kitco the low was 1190.

The fib numbers are close enough to predict high/lows, but wave and fib do not predict WHEN it happens...Fib "time" does not happen accurately with the Fib numbers, 0,1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21.... WHEN is the code to be cracked.....my take, major moves happen during Fib eliptical time cycles...the one who can predict not the price of gold, ( Fib does that in hindsight), but WHEN it moves nails it. Believe they are tied to Sabbatical years, Shemitah, 7x7, and Jubilee years, 49. The Harbinger book proves this." When" is the question, Armstrong bases his cycles on the Sabbatical years also, no one person has put a defined cycle number to the proven Fib number equation.
917601

You are right about fibo and waves as well as about timing, but my own experiences is that phi 22/7 takes care of about everything.
If some particular event delays the market levels, it would come back to be governed by natural law.

Gold retraced back thrice at 15xx, but again it corrected back to fibo level.:Reading:
 

d-lod

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The following abc counts are based on assumption that gold has completed first minor wave 1 of III of Major THREE.

The minutte wave analysis would be given once present correction is complete.
This abc pattern will suggest counts for future analysis, and also may provide confirmation of completion of minor wave 1.

In case the minor wave has not completed it's course, than we will see further upside.

a = 1347.74 - 1308.98 = 38.76
b = 1308.98 - 1340.70 = 31.72
c = 1340.70 - 1301.00 = 39.00 / 1340.70 - 1278.69 = 62.01 (c = a x 1.6)


1300 / 1278.................present price 1335.


The first target of 1301 is achieved
 

Thecrensh

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I'm also a kid in the back corner wearing a dunce cap...I don't understand the terminology or methodology, but I do understand the pictures/graphs. Your TA helped me choose to buy some AG at $1293 a few months back, and though it seems to be dropping down again, I am in this for the long haul. I appreciate all the information you've been sharing on here!

Unfortunately, I bought a lot of my AU at about $45+, so that stinks...the good part is that I can DCA now and help soften my current "losses".
 

JustPassinThru

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If it helps your outlook...the markets are being manipulated. It would take too much space to explain here; but read and learn. We all had to...all but a few who're in the financialization business.

The dropping price is artificial and will bounce up once the juggling act crashes, as it must. Dollars are going to be dirty paper. Euros are going to be the fodder of jokes. But PMs will have value. How much? Gold, as compared ounce to living necessity, has remained relatively stable. What it goes for in New Dollars or Yuan, won't matter - what matters is if you need to eat, and all you have are dollars, and dollars went the way of the Zimbabwean dollar, degraded to the millionth power...gold and other traditional monies are what's going to save you. And all of us.
 

Ebie

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If it helps your outlook...the markets are being manipulated. It would take too much space to explain here; but read and learn. We all had to...all but a few who're in the financialization business.

The dropping price is artificial and will bounce up once the juggling act crashes, as it must. Dollars are going to be dirty paper. Euros are going to be the fodder of jokes. But PMs will have value. How much? Gold, as compared ounce to living necessity, has remained relatively stable. What it goes for in New Dollars or Yuan, won't matter - what matters is if you need to eat, and all you have are dollars, and dollars went the way of the Zimbabwean dollar, degraded to the millionth power...gold and other traditional monies are what's going to save you. And all of us.
The dollar can last longer.
Huge power of the media.
 

Thecrensh

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Yep...I've noticed inexplicable up/down swings since I've been following PMs and realize that the cost of a loaf of bread has risen more steady and higher than PMs! When you pay 200% more for food over the course of several years in a bad economy, but PMs are dropping...something just ain't right.

If it helps your outlook...the markets are being manipulated. It would take too much space to explain here; but read and learn. We all had to...all but a few who're in the financialization business.

The dropping price is artificial and will bounce up once the juggling act crashes, as it must. Dollars are going to be dirty paper. Euros are going to be the fodder of jokes. But PMs will have value. How much? Gold, as compared ounce to living necessity, has remained relatively stable. What it goes for in New Dollars or Yuan, won't matter - what matters is if you need to eat, and all you have are dollars, and dollars went the way of the Zimbabwean dollar, degraded to the millionth power...gold and other traditional monies are what's going to save you. And all of us.
 

Ebie

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Yep...I've noticed inexplicable up/down swings since I've been following PMs and realize that the cost of a loaf of bread has risen more steady and higher than PMs! When you pay 200% more for food over the course of several years in a bad economy, but PMs are dropping...something just ain't right.
Bread is a bigger market than gold.
Harder to flood the market of bread to drop the price, and, no reason to do so anyway.
 

d-lod

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Wheat is a commodity.
I think that it is going up in price, but, I am not certain.
Like crude - gas price, it is not related as a team, wheat and bread, so the decipherencies, if they will read our post, probably will list bread too,:lol04::lol04:
 

Ebie

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Like crude - gas price, it is not related as a team, wheat and bread, so the decipherencies, if they will read our post, probably will list bread too,:lol04::lol04:
The price of bread has gone up very rapidly.
 

JustPassinThru

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The dollar can last longer.
Huge power of the media.
I don't see how.

Inflation, eventually, cannot be hidden. The very definition if inflation, is, inflating, increasing the amount/supply of, the currency.

That is what is being done. For right now, it's being poured into the pockets of the crony-corporatist banksters and "green energy" swindlers - but money is fungible. It trickles down...even the plant Solyndra built, was paying wages to bricklayers and architects.

Increase the amount of money about, and decrease the value of individual units. Which is what fiat money has done; and which is what is being done drastically and rapidly now

Gold is an historical store of value - and it can not be inflated. Even new discoveries are small compared to the total amount of gold in circulation.

Gold can only be dropped in value by making the IMAGE of gold as an unstable value. This, done by fractional trading on paper gold; by huge manipulations in the market.

It can be done today. I don't know but it may still be done a year from now. But inflation is burning through the economy and even Hussein's Marxist economists and dishonest statistics won't be able to keep it hidden much longer. Nor is there any sort of plan to remove the excess inflating dollars from the supply of circulating money.

When the dollar is shown to be the political tool of theft against the frugal and productive...it will have lost credibility as well as value. And at that point, there will no longer be a way to manipulate the value of gold down.
 

d-lod

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The following abc counts are based on assumption that gold has completed first minor wave 1 of III of Major THREE.

The minutte wave analysis would be given once present correction is complete.
This abc pattern will suggest counts for future analysis, and also may provide confirmation of completion of minor wave 1.

In case the minor wave has not completed it's course, than we will see further upside.

a = 1347.74 - 1308.98 = 38.76
b = 1308.98 - 1340.70 = 31.72
c = 1340.70 - 1301.00 = 39.00 / 1340.70 - 1278.69 = 62.01 (c = a x 1.6)


1300 / 1278.................present price 1335.
Second target of 1278 is also achieved............so now it looks like that yet the technically gold may go deeper.
 

Ebie

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I don't see how.
Gold is an historical store of value - and it can not be inflated. Even new discoveries are small compared to the total amount of gold in circulation.

Gold can only be dropped in value by making the IMAGE of gold as an unstable value. This, done by fractional trading on paper gold; by huge manipulations in the market.
.
Just flood the market with paper gold.
Otherwise: delay, and/or force them to take paper:
Example:
Default on Germany physical gold, and, obscure the situation, with delay.
The true physical market is apparently small enough so that it can be kept supplied.
Even if there are some defaults, they can be covered up by forcing the party to take paper.
 

JustPassinThru

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Just flood the market with paper gold.
Otherwise: delay, and/or force them to take paper:
Example:
Default on Germany physical gold, and, obscure the situation, with delay.
The true physical market is apparently small enough so that it can be kept supplied.
Even if there are some defaults, they can be covered up by forcing the party to take paper.
Can't go on forever. Especially when the dollar crashes and TSHTF. AND...when the power fails. People will want REAL, TANGIBLE GOLD.
 

Ebie

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Can't go on forever. Especially when the dollar crashes and TSHTF. AND...when the power fails. People will want REAL, TANGIBLE GOLD.
I think that it can go on for a long time, but not forever.
The Nazi Germany economy and currency functioned almost to the end.
We may be in a much stronger position.
We are not even at uncharted/unprecedented levels yet.
Isn't Japan worse?
 

JustPassinThru

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I think that it can go on for a long time, but not forever.
The Nazi Germany economy and currency functioned almost to the end.
We may be in a much stronger position.
We are not even at uncharted/unprecedented levels yet.
Isn't Japan worse?
The Nazi regime only continued, in wartime dire straits, for about five years.

And they had the wealth of various Enemies Of The State appropriated.

And...they were economically isolated. It was Reichmarks, or nothing.

And, finally...they had a boogeyman. Totalitarians need demons to rally the sheeple against.

And the war effort, first winning and then losing, distracted the populace from the economic situation.
 

pitw

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Can't go on forever. Especially when the dollar crashes and TSHTF. AND...when the power fails. People will want REAL, TANGIBLE GOLD.
I somehow got my doubts that peoples first thoughts will be about wanting gold if "TSHTF", I suppose that is why I made sure I had a spot to live where I can feed myself and family paid for before I started gathering pretty stuff.
 

JustPassinThru

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I somehow got my doubts that peoples first thoughts will be about wanting gold if "TSHTF", I suppose that is why I made sure I had a spot to live where I can feed myself and family paid for before I started gathering pretty stuff.
That's an interesting point.

Some of us, cannot spare money or space for elaborate survival supplies. For example, I'm not gonna buy land, basically renting from the gubbermint, until I need that land. Why waste the money? If the world ends, land-ownership is as likely as not to be abolished or not recognized. Anarchy, IOW.

Ditto elaborate stills, generators, and ESPECIALLY go-anywhere cars and equipment. Why bother? Odds are there won't be gas. Odds are, also, that people with guns will be taking this stuff from people with fewer guns.

As for guns: Expensive; a theft risk; and require regular maintenance. And what happens if the world doesn't go out in a bang, but slowly, with Obamacops making the rounds and arresting gun owners?

So...what I really need is a medium of exchange. Something that has value after FRNs are unmasked as dirty slips of expensive paper.

Gold.
 

d-lod

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Second target of 1278 is also achieved............so now it looks like that yet the technically gold may go deeper.
1272.85 that is 1273 was the depth of wave 2.

Wave 1

i) 1180 - 1267 = 87
ii) 1267 - 1208 = 59
iii) 1208 - 1298 = 90
iv) 1298 - 1267 = 31
v) 1267 - 1347 = 80


Wave 2 - abc correction was from 1347 to 1273

Total rise was 167$, so next wave, Wave 3 would reach 1439 or 1539. Right now gold is in final upward move of Wave 3.
 

pimples

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1272.85 that is 1273 was the depth of wave 2.

Wave 1

i) 1180 - 1267 = 87
ii) 1267 - 1208 = 59
iii) 1208 - 1298 = 90
iv) 1298 - 1267 = 31
v) 1267 - 1347 = 80


Wave 2 - abc correction was from 1347 to 1273

Total rise was 167$, so next wave, Wave 3 would reach 1439 or 1539. Right now gold is in final upward move of Wave 3.
per Elliott Wave Principles rule: "wave three is never the shortest"
 

d-lod

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http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1377522864.php

This next chart is a long term monthly look that shows the 2009 low was actually made up of three separate chart patterns. There was the blue bullish expanding falling wedge, a red triangle that created the H&S consolidation pattern. Again notice the neckline extension rail made off the 2009 H&S consolidation pattern that extends to our June low. Another important feature of this chart is the black and white candles. As you can see when gold is in an impulse leg up it forms a string of white candles and when it’s in a downtrend, most recent decline to the June low, there were a string of black candles. If the month of August can end on a positive note for gold we will have our first two white candles that could be the start of the next impulse leg up.

No 1100 or 800 any more
 

d-lod

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1272.85 that is 1273 was the depth of wave 2.

Wave 1

i) 1180 - 1267 = 87
ii) 1267 - 1208 = 59
iii) 1208 - 1298 = 90
iv) 1298 - 1267 = 31
v) 1267 - 1347 = 80


Wave 2 - abc correction was from 1347 to 1273

Total rise was 167$, so next wave, Wave 3 would reach 1439 or 1539. Right now gold is in final upward move of Wave 3.



1433.80 has been achieved already..............
 

d-lod

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If POG is following EW than there has been lot of mutation in following simple rule, one of them is somewhere the wave are extending in retio of .90 - 1.10, rather than .318, 618 qnd 1.618.....................Its funny and looks like that has been done so that common investor be fooled.
 

917601

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Using fib and golden mean and a copied chart ( non log) a pencil and golden spiral I arrive close to Sinclairs 2025, $2200 plus/ minus . The mistakes in the crude graph increments and pencil may account for the difference. I like to keep it simple.
 

Ebie

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water
some food
don't let people know
That's an interesting point.

Some of us, cannot spare money or space for elaborate survival supplies. For example, I'm not gonna buy land, basically renting from the gubbermint, until I need that land. Why waste the money? If the world ends, land-ownership is as likely as not to be abolished or not recognized. Anarchy, IOW.

Ditto elaborate stills, generators, and ESPECIALLY go-anywhere cars and equipment. Why bother? Odds are there won't be gas. Odds are, also, that people with guns will be taking this stuff from people with fewer guns.

As for guns: Expensive; a theft risk; and require regular maintenance. And what happens if the world doesn't go out in a bang, but slowly, with Obamacops making the rounds and arresting gun owners?

So...what I really need is a medium of exchange. Something that has value after FRNs are unmasked as dirty slips of expensive paper.

Gold.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Using fib and golden mean and a copied chart ( non log) a pencil and golden spiral I arrive close to Sinclairs 2025, $2200 plus/ minus . The mistakes in the crude graph increments and pencil may account for the difference. I like to keep it simple.
It took 13 month to cross previous top of 1032 from 681.
 

d-lod

dawn
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wave 1 - 681 - 777 = 96....................wave 1 - 1180 - 1347 = 167
wave 2 - 777 - 699 =-78....................wave 2 - 1347 - 1272 = 75
wave 3 - 699 - 830 = 131...................wave 3 - 1272 - 1433 = 161
wave 4 - 830 - 740 = 90.....................wave 4 - 1433 - 1356 = 76
wave 5 - 740 - 890 = 150...................wave 5 - 1356 - 1490 = 133
abc - .....890 - 801 = 89.....................abc..... - 1490 - 1405 = 85


This is comparison of first smaller wave of 1st wave of MAJOR THREE, and first smaller wave of 3rd wave of MAJOR THREE.

The projections in red are, on assumption that 3rd wave cannot be smallest, so there will be no 5th wave extension.