• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding high finance, politics, constructionist Constitution, and mental masturbation of all types"

GOLD IN FIFTH WAVE

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
921
Likes
730
wave 1 - 681 - 777 = 96....................wave 1 - 1180 - 1347 = 167
wave 2 - 777 - 699 =-78....................wave 2 - 1347 - 1272 = 75
wave 3 - 699 - 830 = 131...................wave 3 - 1272 - 1433 = 161
wave 4 - 830 - 740 = 90.....................wave 4 - 1433 - 1356 = 76
wave 5 - 740 - 890 = 150...................wave 5 - 1356 - 1490 = 133
abc - .....890 - 801 = 89.....................abc..... - 1490 - 1405 = 85


This is comparison of first smaller wave of 1st wave of MAJOR THREE, and first smaller wave of 3rd wave of MAJOR THREE.

The projections in red are, on assumption that 3rd wave cannot be smallest, so there will be no 5th wave extension.
Thanks for your analysis, D-lod. I'm not an Elliot wave student, but I would agree with those numbers.
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
really now indeed is in THIRD WAVE

Obama Seeks Congressional Approval for a Syria Strike


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-31/un-team-quits-syria-after-kerry-sets-stage-for-u-s-action.html


No more correction if he is stupid to attack, taking debt from 22 Trillion to infinity...............



President Barack Obama slowed his march toward war, saying he’ll seek authorization from Congress before ordering a military strike against Syria for using chemical weapons.

While Obama said that he’s already decided to take action, he said he’ll give lawmakers the opportunity to debate and vote on it. Congressional leaders have agreed to take up the issue once lawmakers return from their recess on Sept. 9.



“While I believe I have the authority to carry out this military action without specific congressional authorization, I know that the country will be stronger if we take this course and our actions will be even more effective,” the president said in a televised address from the White House Rose Garden.
 

andial

((( member )))
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 1, 2010
Messages
11,073
Likes
11,732
No more correction if he is stupid to attack, taking debt from 22 Trillion to infinity...............
I know this is a technical thread d-lod but going on news that might drive Gold it looks to me like Gold continues sideways/down a week or so until congress ok's Obama to strike Syria. Interesting that you and Zed are looking for sideways/down from your charts also.
 

platinumdude

Gold Chaser
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
3,486
Likes
2,254
I know this is a technical thread d-lod but going on news that might drive Gold it looks to me like Gold continues sideways/down a week or so until congress ok's Obama to strike Syria. Interesting that you and Zed are looking for sideways/down from your charts also.
You think congress is going to OK the strike? I am hoping this gets voted down.
 

andial

((( member )))
Midas Member
Site Supporter ++
Joined
Apr 1, 2010
Messages
11,073
Likes
11,732
You think congress is going to OK the strike? I am hoping this gets voted down.
Don't want to derail the thread plat but yes I think the congress ok's the strike. I don't like it either but that is how i see it going down.
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,216
Likes
2,938
I know this is a technical thread d-lod but going on news that might drive Gold it looks to me like Gold continues sideways/down a week or so until congress ok's Obama to strike Syria. Interesting that you and Zed are looking for sideways/down from your charts also.
Hey brother dial can you point me in the direction of a current Zed chart?
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
I know this is a technical thread d-lod but going on news that might drive Gold it looks to me like Gold continues sideways/down a week or so until congress ok's Obama to strike Syria. Interesting that you and Zed are looking for sideways/down from your charts also.
andial

The charts are charts and they show us psychology of mass, but yes silver corrected beautifully to projected target.
Charts are also showing mutation of mass psychology, Silver first wave is dwarfed by heavy shorter.
I am sure with Russia on Syria side, it will not be easy for Obama and like he may use congress as his defense.

The deep correction was what I was worried since 1912 top, so chart do have authenticity, its how we
see/use it.

Guys discuss about half filled/empty glass, I, in my group psychotherapy ask my clients to use it. If they are thirsty, should drink it or throw it if not, but take action and that wisdom.:p
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
Don't want to derail the thread plat but yes I think the congress ok's the strike. I don't like it either but that is how i see it going down.
You are derailing, its important that we reason out cause too, its fundamental to TA.
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,216
Likes
2,938
You are derailing, its important that we reason out cause too, its fundamental to TA.
Sorry for the D-rail extension...

FWIW, I find tonights price action fascinating. First we dive bomb down close to your EW boundary, and now we are chugging north steadily. This could of course change again but right now it has the feel of a mini kiss off bottom with the pump being primed for solid post labor day price action.
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
wave 1 - 681 - 777 = 96....................wave 1 - 1180 - 1347 = 167
wave 2 - 777 - 699 =-78....................wave 2 - 1347 - 1272 = 75
wave 3 - 699 - 830 = 131...................wave 3 - 1272 - 1433 = 161
wave 4 - 830 - 740 = 90.....................wave 4 - 1433 - 1356 = 76
wave 5 - 740 - 890 = 150...................wave 5 - 1356 - 1490 = 133
abc - .....890 - 801 = 89.....................abc..... - 1490 - 1405 = 85


This is comparison of first smaller wave of 1st wave of MAJOR THREE, and first smaller wave of 3rd wave of MAJOR THREE.

The projections in red are, on assumption that 3rd wave cannot be smallest, so there will be no 5th wave extension.

Jelly

1357
 

bemac

Midas Member
Midas Member
Joined
Nov 5, 2010
Messages
5,542
Likes
4,685
So, in all probability, we should see a bump back up to ~1490 from here?
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
I could be wrong but I'm seeing 5 completed waves for this small Wave 1. Correction target of 0.618 is around 1280. We will see how that plays out.
Lightcycler

you could be right, because nothing could be firmly predicted till first wave complete the cycle of impulse and corrective wave.

If its iv th wave than correction will not cross 1347, top of first wave. Let see, have we completed 1st wave or not?
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,216
Likes
2,938
So since we have now broken down below 1347 we no longer think we are in iv wave? How do you see the labeling now?
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
So since we have now broken down below 1347 we no longer think we are in iv wave? How do you see the labeling now?
There were two possibilities, one was that gold was in wave iv and second was that we have completed wave 1 ans were in wave 2, as gold has broken top 1347, it means that gold either has completed wave 1, or we are still in correction mode and it was a three wave next "x".

But I am partial towards no major correction has remained. So that means that we may not further down movement.

1304 IS 50% CORRECTION OF WAVE FROM 1160 - 1433.
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
I could be wrong but I'm seeing 5 completed waves for this small Wave 1. Correction target of 0.618 is around 1280. We will see how that plays out.
Sorry to respond to your post little late, you have been proven right. The third wave correction are ususlly shallow, but this one had been so different.

I had contemplated your theory, when correction started, but had rejected on the basis of % of wave ii and wave iv differences. They should have been equivalent in %.
 
Last edited:

lightcycler

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Dec 7, 2010
Messages
951
Likes
273
Sorry to respond to your post, you have been proven right. The third wave correction are ususlly shallow, but this one had been so different.

I had contemplated your theory, when correction started, but had rejected on the basis of % of wave ii and wave iv differences. They should have been equivalent in %.
Well we just put forth the most probable counts. Always alternates for sure. Glad you are keeping this thread rolling and putting forth the good info to work with. Things will get real fun over the next year or so :)
 

savvydon

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
3,216
Likes
2,938
Well we just put forth the most probable counts. Always alternates for sure. Glad you are keeping this thread rolling and putting forth the good info to work with. Things will get real fun over the next year or so :)
Good to see YOU have been doing your homework as well. I may have to pick your EW brains sometime. :s1:
 

lightcycler

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Dec 7, 2010
Messages
951
Likes
273
Is THIS what you guys have been talking about all these long months?

/QUOTE]

That is one possiblility. It is not my top possibility at this point. I don't think its at the top of most others list here either. I think we will correct into the 1280 area and then move much higher from there. We will have to watch how things tanspire. No sure things at this point and nothing high probablility. Price action will clear up the picture soon. We are up strong overnight tonight. But I think one more move down coming based on the wave count I see.
 

lightcycler

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Dec 7, 2010
Messages
951
Likes
273
Good to see YOU have been doing your homework as well. I may have to pick your EW brains sometime. :s1:
Any time Don. Its been a long couple of years in this correction. Ready to get back to the fun times and pull in some major paper money too :)
 

Thecrensh

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Joined
Jun 26, 2013
Messages
7,055
Likes
9,549
I guess my question is rather that, since I'm a picture kinda guy, is this the whole "wave" thing?


Is THIS what you guys have been talking about all these long months?

/QUOTE]

That is one possiblility. It is not my top possibility at this point. I don't think its at the top of most others list here either. I think we will correct into the 1280 area and then move much higher from there. We will have to watch how things tanspire. No sure things at this point and nothing high probablility. Price action will clear up the picture soon. We are up strong overnight tonight. But I think one more move down coming based on the wave count I see.
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
Is THIS what you guys have been talking about all these long months?

/QUOTE]

That is one possiblility. It is not my top possibility at this point. I don't think its at the top of most others list here either. I think we will correct into the 1280 area and then move much higher from there. We will have to watch how things tanspire. No sure things at this point and nothing high probablility. Price action will clear up the picture soon. We are up strong overnight tonight. But I think one more move down coming based on the wave count I see.


1 = 1180 - 1267 = 87
2 = 1267 - 1208 = 59
3 = 1208 - 1347 = 139
4 = 1347 - 1272 = 75
5 = 1272 - 1433 = 161


abc = 1433 - 1304 =129

lightcycler. this is what I was talking, the ratio of corrective wave 2 and four waves do not fit any fibo level, and hence my previous assumptions.

So what next

(1) = 1180 - 1433 = 253
(2) = 1433 - 1304 = 129
(3) = 1304 - 1723 = 419
(4) = 1723 - 1588 = 135
(5) = 15881 - 841 = 253 AND ABOVE
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
Right wing


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1379257200.php

Gold fell a hefty 5.92% on the week with most of those losses coming Thursday and Friday after a few days of building it’s right shoulder in the head and shoulders pattern.

I talked about this exact scenario last weekend here for you.

Now we’re nearing the $75 move lower I was expecting with support next at $1,275.

and Left wing

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1379257740.php

As I mentioned in my last post there is a disturbing possibility that gold's intermediate cycle has topped, and done so in a left translated manner. For clarification, left translated cycles often lead to lower lows. In this case if gold did top on week 9 and the intermediate cycle is now in decline, then the odds are high we are going to see the June low of $1179 tested and broken before the next intermediate bottom.

Whenever I'm not sure about direction the first thing I do is go to the weekly charts. You can see in the three charts below that the Thursday pre-market hit did serious damage to the entire sector.

Be wise in choosing your path
 

lightcycler

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Dec 7, 2010
Messages
951
Likes
273
THanks for the info Dlod. Sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity

Updated post :)
Sometimes I don't sit like I should. Went long today.

9-18 Got lucky with the big move from the Fed Meeting. Sold out and now on the side lines where I should be. Too much in question
 
Last edited:

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-elliott-wave-technical-analysis-2



We now have a clear breach of the parallel channel containing the upwards wave labeled primary wave 4. This movement is now confirmed as a completed three wave correction. The next wave down has begun.

Within primary wave 4 intermediate wave (C) is just 7.08 short of equality with intermediate wave (A).

At 1,046 primary wave 5 would reach equality in length with primary wave 1.

I have today adjusted the wave count within the start of this new downwards movement. It is more likely a series of overlapping first and second waves, rather than a leading diagonal. This resolves the problem of the shallow correction; leading diagonals in first wave positions are normally followed by very deep second wave corrections. This labeling today has a higher probability because it is much more common than a leading diagonal.

Minor wave 3 has not passed the middle yet. We should see an increase in downwards momentum.

Within primary wave 5 no second wave correction may move beyond the start of the first wave. This wave count is invalidated with movement above 1,433.83.
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1379513220.php


Gary Savage: Well, that day you’re talking about, that was a key reversal in the miners, and on that day, gold poked above that previous high at about $1425. So it made a higher high and then it sold off a little bit but it still ended the day positive. But the miners sold off on very heavy volume all day long and were down like three or four percent.



That just smelled fishy to me. It looked like the big money players had manufactured a breakout in order to unload their shares on retail traders that were buying these breakouts.



Boy did they unload and at that point, I just got a feeling that we were going to see the manipulation begin again and that these guys were going to try and take down gold again. My guess is that they’re going to try and take it back down to the prior C-wave top at $1030 before they allow the natural forces to resume and the cyclical trend to get back in force.



Yes, and I was one of those people who said that was a bottom and it was an intermediate bottom. But I’m extremely nervous now. Gold broke its intermediate trend line last week and I’m extremely nervous that the intermediate cycle topped after nine weeks which means it’s a left translated intermediate cycle that should give it plenty of time to go down and test that $1179.



If it gets anywhere close to that, we’re going to see another hit in the overnight market or premarket just like we did last Wednesday and they’re going to break that $1179 level and when they do, gold is going to waterfall decline right down to that $1000 level and I think that’s the level where they will cover their shorts and the long term buyers will buy and hold and that will be the final bottom before we start either another C-wave or in my opinion probably the bubble phase.

Well, my original feeling was that the bubble phase would probably go to somewhere between $5000 and $7000 an oz. but they’ve damaged the supply side fundamentals. They damaged them severely with this manipulation and what typically happens is the more severe the manipulation is and the more artificial the move is, the more violent the move will be in the other direction when the artificial market is broken.



So this has been a severe event over the last year and they have really damaged the supply side in gold. So now, I’m thinking we could see $10,000.
 

Joseph

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Sr Site Supporter
Joined
Jul 27, 2011
Messages
4,830
Likes
9,152
Location
south east
So I think we’re going to get that bottom sometime this fall, maybe within the next eight to ten or eleven weeks. We will get that bottom at the $1000 level – they’re shooting for it. I think there’s a pretty good chance they’re going to make it, so that’s where I would go in and back up the truck because I think that’s where the shorts will cover.
d-lod -

If gold drops to $1000 won't premiums be out the roof ? $300+/oz ?

I'm thinking there'd be feeding frenzy at that point. APMEX and Provident buried with orders -

I'd be scared to death of buying anything on ebay at that time.
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
d-lod -

If gold drops to $1000 won't premiums be out the roof ? $300+/oz ?

I'm thinking there'd be feeding frenzy at that point. APMEX and Provident buried with orders -

I'd be scared to death of buying anything on ebay at that time.


Joseph

The picture is never clear till we finish wave one and we have not yet done with it, last few post were article which I keep posted for busy forum users. Refer to my earlier post..................

There were two possibilities, one was that gold was in wave iv and second was that we have completed wave 1 ans were in wave 2, as gold has broken top 1347, it means that gold either has completed wave 1, or we are still in correction mode and it was a three wave next "x".

But I am partial towards no major correction has remained. So that means that we may not further down movement.

1304 IS 50% CORRECTION OF WAVE FROM 1160 - 1433.

1292 / 1276 are next fibo if 1302 is crossed.
The dooming scenario would come into play if gold breaks below 1272, which is previous month close and also weekly close.
 

Chester-Copperpot

Gold Member
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Aug 24, 2010
Messages
3,273
Likes
2,366
d-lod -

If gold drops to $1000 won't premiums be out the roof ? $300+/oz ?

I'm thinking there'd be feeding frenzy at that point. APMEX and Provident buried with orders -

I'd be scared to death of buying anything on ebay at that time.
I don't think premiums would go through the roof.

Gold has dropped from almost $2000, down to $1200 and the premiums have pretty much stayed the same. Dropping to $1000 won't change much IMO.
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
The minor wave (i) of intermediate wave 3 of Major wave THREE


..i - 1291 - 1307 = 16
.ii - 1307 - 1296 = 11
iii - 1296 - 1367 = 71
iv - 1367 - 1357 = 10
.v - 1357 - 1375 = 18

The two corrective waves, ii & iv are in sync with values of 11 and 10, third is not the smallest


1356, 1343 and 1333 could be corrective wave (ii)

counts are based on 30 min. chart, the fifth may get extended!
 

d-lod

dawn
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 18, 2010
Messages
1,035
Likes
498
Location
toronto/asia
IHSLANCER.......... one of your favorite


http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1379610506.php


The Fed’s refusal to change course makes plain that all the talk of tapering is just that – talk. The fact of the matter is that they have passed the point of no return long ago, and given the current debt structure any attempt to wind down market support will result in a systemic implosion, and they know it. This is why they are carrying on as before. While Hot Money obviously likes this state of affairs, someone is going to pick up the tab for all this, and that someone is the guy at the bottom of the food chain, the man in the street. The Fed’s maintenance of its current course will result in the dollar continuing to bleed and this will feed through into accelerating inflation in the US. This is bad news for the ordinary Joe, but good news for Precious Metals sector investors.
 

lightcycler

Silver Member
Silver Miner
Joined
Dec 7, 2010
Messages
951
Likes
273
I'm beginning to lean in the direction of more correction. But as Dlod has laid out before that would be confirmed on a break below 1272 right?