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GOLD IN FIFTH WAVE

d-lod

dawn
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1 = 1180 - 1267 = 87
2 = 1267 - 1208 = 59
3 = 1208 - 1347 = 139
4 = 1347 - 1272 = 75
5 = 1272 - 1433 = 161


abc = 1433 - 1304 =129

lightcycler. this is what I was talking, the ratio of corrective wave 2 and four waves do not fit any fibo level, and hence my previous assumptions.

So what next

(1) = 1180 - 1433 = 253
(2) = 1433 - 1304 = 129
(3) = 1304 - 1723 = 419
(4) = 1723 - 1588 = 135
(5) = 15881 - 841 = 253 AND ABOVE



1 = 1180 - 1267 = 87
2 = 1267 - 1208 = 59 - 5%
3 = 1208 - 1347 = 139
4 = 1347 - 1272 = 75 - 6%
5 = 1272 - 1433 = 161


abc = 1433 - 1291 =142 - 10%


The first wave scenario was unfolded as above.

The correction figures of ii and iv wave varies by one % while as per field's calculation of abc correction as larger wave fits well with 10% correction so far.
 

savvydon

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1 = 1180 - 1267 = 87
2 = 1267 - 1208 = 59 - 5%
3 = 1208 - 1347 = 139
4 = 1347 - 1272 = 75 - 6%
5 = 1272 - 1433 = 161


abc = 1433 - 1291 =142 - 10%


The first wave scenario was unfolded as above.

The correction figures of ii and iv wave varies by one % while as per field's calculation of abc correction as larger wave fits well with 10% correction so far.
Do you think it is possible that we are still in the midst of wave c right now with wave a having moved from 1433 to 1292, wave b peaking at about 1378, and now wave c having an approximate target in the 1270's?
 

d-lod

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Do you think it is possible that we are still in the midst of wave c right now with wave a having moved from 1433 to 1292, wave b peaking at about 1378, and now wave c having an approximate target in the 1270's?
savvydon

We could be, though other indicators are looking bullish. In case the C wave is not done yet than it could be 1289 i.e. 61% of wave a, or 1233 that is c = a. 142$
 
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lightcycler

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"I could be wrong but I'm seeing 5 completed waves for this small Wave 1. Correction target of 0.618 is around 1280. We will see how that plays out."

I posted that on 9-10. We have now arrived. Or very close. I have some doubts. We will see if the 1270 area holds. When I put the fib's up it is showing the .618 at 1276 ish when looking at the move as being 1178 to 1436. Very close to your numbers Dlod
 

savvydon

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"I could be wrong but I'm seeing 5 completed waves for this small Wave 1. Correction target of 0.618 is around 1280. We will see how that plays out."

I posted that on 9-10. We have now arrived. Or very close. I have some doubts. We will see if the 1270 area holds. When I put the fib's up it is showing the .618 at 1276 ish when looking at the move as being 1178 to 1436. Very close to your numbers Dlod
After we dropped down today I felt like I was seeing some clarity in the count. We are obviously measuring the same thing but seem to be labeling it differently. Where as you are measuring a five wave down to finish wave 1 I am seeing the completion of a correction ABC move where we are waiting for wave C to finish before starting wave one of what would be a major three.

Seems to me if we are completing small wave 1 down then we are in the midst of a five wave bearish move which would push us pretty far down. Am I misinterpreting you?

Here is a simplified chart of the count I was seeing today.

screenshot_34.jpg
 

d-lod

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After we dropped down today I felt like I was seeing some clarity in the count. We are obviously measuring the same thing but seem to be labeling it differently. Where as you are measuring a five wave down to finish wave 1 I am seeing the completion of a correction ABC move where we are waiting for wave C to finish before starting wave one of what would be a major three.

Seems to me if we are completing small wave 1 down then we are in the midst of a five wave bearish move which would push us pretty far down. Am I misinterpreting you?

Here is a simplified chart of the count I was seeing today.

View attachment 46151
Thanks savydon for great chart, keep posting them as they would help lot of visitors, as many are vision-ist.

These exactly, what I wanted to communicate.

The first wave has right to visit all its way to its start, and that is were double bottom is formed, so this wave can travel to vicinity of 1200ish and still be intact though.


lightcycler, both of you have given new life to this thread, otherwise, the shape this forum is, I was going to retire, I moved to another forum but GIM, is my first love:cool:
 

lightcycler

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After we dropped down today I felt like I was seeing some clarity in the count. We are obviously measuring the same thing but seem to be labeling it differently. Where as you are measuring a five wave down to finish wave 1 I am seeing the completion of a correction ABC move where we are waiting for wave C to finish before starting wave one of what would be a major three.

Seems to me if we are completing small wave 1 down then we are in the midst of a five wave bearish move which would push us pretty far down. Am I misinterpreting you?
No that is what I meant. We completed five waves up with a 3 wave correction. The problem is the five waves up look quite funcky and the correction is certainly not textbook. Basic correction is 3-3-5 flat and 5-3-5 zigzag. Both having a 5 wave.....wave C. Your labeling is how I would label it......but the correction is difficult.......that is what gives me pause. I really think we are still in very unclear territory. Price action will clear that up soon I hope. Right now between the head and shoulder tops and head and shoulder bottoms a guy doesn't know which way to turn :)
 
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savvydon

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No that is what I meant. We completed five waves up with a 3 wave correction. The problem is the five waves up look quite funcky and the correction is certainly not textbook. Basic correction is 3-3-5 flat and 5-3-5 zigzag. Both having a 5 wave.....wave C. Your labeling is how I would label it......but the correction is difficult.......that is what gives me pause. I really think we are still in very unclear territory. Price action will clear that up soon I hope. Right now between the head and shoulder tops and head and shoulder bottoms a guy doesn't know which way to turn :)
So you think we are in the midst of an ABC correction of a five wave run up that started at 1180 as well? That would make this entire correction a 2 wave. I zoomed in on our ABC correction to try to get a bead on what can be anticipated going forward. I have put in some tentative labeling. We may be in the middle of a zig zag 5-3-5 correction. Wave A looks straightforward so I think it is entirely possible that wave C may be complex. I did not try to label any of C waves internal waves yet because the pattern lacks clarity to me. It is possible that wave C wave completed with the bottom at 1277 on October 1st, as that is almost exactly 161.8% of the distance from the start of A to the completion of B, but I am not ready to make that call as of yet. If we drop below 1277 it is likely that wave C is still working through, if we make it above 1375 that will lend credence to the idea that the ABC correction is over and we are gearing up for larger wave three. I guess time will tell - should be an interesting week. :cheerful:

screenshot_38.jpg
 

lightcycler

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I have been thinking just that Savvydon. As I look at the waves and time goes by I question if that is the case or we are still in the much larger correction. THe fact that we are not picking up steam to the downside limits the case for still being part of the much larger correction. These are the times that labeling is very unclear. For instance your B wave appears to be a text book 5 wave move to me and could be small wave C of B in a 3-3-5 flat. Corrections can be so messy. I'm looking for impulsive waves in a direction. Not occurring in either direction currently. Time will resolve for sure.
 

savvydon

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I have been thinking just that Savvydon. As I look at the waves and time goes by I question if that is the case or we are still in the much larger correction. THe fact that we are not picking up steam to the downside limits the case for still being part of the much larger correction. These are the times that labeling is very unclear. For instance your B wave appears to be a text book 5 wave move to me and could be small wave C of B in a 3-3-5 flat. Corrections can be so messy. I'm looking for impulsive waves in a direction. Not occurring in either direction currently. Time will resolve for sure.
I see what you are saying. You are right that does look like a five wave move, and if so certainly makes your interpretation possible. I agree that we are currently swimming in murky waters but like you expect resolution at some point. Always good to bounce ideas off others... :thumbs_up:
 

lightcycler

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I see what you are saying. You are right that does look like a five wave move, and if so certainly makes your interpretation possible. I agree that we are currently swimming in murky waters but like you expect resolution at some point. Always good to bounce ideas off others... :thumbs_up:
Yes lets keep Dlod warmed up. This thread has always been very good and appreciated by a few of us.
 

d-lod

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andial

The charts are charts and they show us psychology of mass, but yes silver corrected beautifully to projected target.
Charts are also showing mutation of mass psychology, Silver first wave is dwarfed by heavy shorter.
I am sure with Russia on Syria side, it will not be easy for Obama and like he may use congress as his defense.

The deep correction was what I was worried since 1912 top, so chart do have authenticity, its how we
see/use it.

Guys discuss about half filled/empty glass, I, in my group psychotherapy ask my clients to use it. If they are thirsty, should drink it or throw it if not, but take action and that wisdom.:p
I have been thinking just that Savvydon. As I look at the waves and time goes by I question if that is the case or we are still in the much larger correction. THe fact that we are not picking up steam to the downside limits the case for still being part of the much larger correction. These are the times that labeling is very unclear. For instance your B wave appears to be a text book 5 wave move to me and could be small wave C of B in a 3-3-5 flat. Corrections can be so messy. I'm looking for impulsive waves in a direction. Not occurring in either direction currently. Time will resolve for sure.

Savvydon and lightcycler

You are absolutely right, none of the waves make any sense, it shows fear of both, bears and bulls. The extension of downward movement after triple bottom both in gold and silver shows intervention of most powerful entities, who have lost war for physical PM.
 

d-lod

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Yes lets keep Dlod warmed up. This thread has always been very good and appreciated by a few of us.
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=121313&page=5

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=122275

Thanks for your warm thoughts, but its about stagnancy of thread, brought on by non participation of visitors.

let me know about other technical thread on this forum, where I can post, so that I do not have to post on dead thread.:s1:

I an back in Toronto, the place, I love the best, so may be more participative.
 

lightcycler

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Lack of clarity and lack of direction also create a stagnant posting environment. Things will get more interesting. :)
 

savvydon

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https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=121313&page=5

https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=122275

Thanks for your warm thoughts, but its about stagnancy of thread, brought on by non participation of visitors.

let me know about other technical thread on this forum, where I can post, so that I do not have to post on dead thread.:s1:
It is just when things begin to get mired in confusion and interest drops off that the foundation is being laid for more momentous market happenings...

Stick around - those that do are bound to be rewarded for their patience and tenacity. :thumbs_up:
 

d-lod

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http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1381237719.php




Analysis from London market-maker Scotia Mocatta said Monday night the bank's New York desk is "currently neutral" despite yesterday's 1.2% gain, "but would view it as a positive development if gold holds key support at $1273."

"Potential is for a fresh sell-off to materialise soon," counters analysis from fellow market-making bank UBS.

"The bearish outlook remains intact...We expect the yellow metal to test the crucial support at $1180.50, the June 28 low, over the coming days."

Even as gold rose 3.7% vs. the Dollar in August, gold bullion imports to China from Hong Kong topped 100 tonnes, net of exports, for the fourth month running new data showed today.

Former No.1 consumer nation India imported only 100 tonnes over July, August and September combined, says local managing director for market-development group the World Gold Council, P.R. Somasundaram.

"Gold recovered in a weak US-Dollar environment [with] few assuring economic data," says the latest Precious Metals Update from German-based refining group Heraeus.

"Still, the short-lived dip in prices led to an increased demand for gold investment bars."

Focusing on the developed West in contrast, "The investment case for gold relies on the expectation of rising inflation," says analysis from investment bank and bullion market-maker J.P.Morgan, "which in turn relies on growth.

"Yet the US shutdown is damaging US growth, both in direct terms through the furlough of 800,000 government employees and through a host of indirect channels."

Yesterday's move in the gold price came in very quiet trade, with volume in US Comex gold futures reaching barely 98,000 contracts – some 60% of the last month's average turnover.
 

lightcycler

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So based on all I see today I'm going to take a stab at what I think is going on. This correction in Gold appears to be a 3-3-5 Flat. We are in wave 5 down of C in this correction. Based on the head and shoulders pattern which appears to be in play now we have a downside target of 1130 ish. This should take Silver down to the 19 range.

Just throwing thoughts out there. Do try this at home :).
 

d-lod

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Gold ABC counts are as follow

Field uses LBMA closing price, so there may be some small deceferencies in %

A= 1920 - 1522 = 398 i.e. 20% decline from the top of 1920
B= 1522 - 1795 = 273
C= 1795 - 1180 = 615 i.e 34% decline from top of 1795 (C = A x 1.6)


The only challenge is lack of positive divergence.
lightcycler
Re: GOLD IN THIRD WAVE

So based on all I see today I'm going to take a stab at what I think is going on. This correction in Gold appears to be a 3-3-5 Flat. We are in wave 5 down of C in this correction. Based on the head and shoulders pattern which appears to be in play now we have a downside target of 1130 ish. This should take Silver down to the 19 range.

Just throwing thoughts out there. Do try this at home .

a = 1920 - 1522 = 398 (21%)
x = 1522 - 1795 = 273 (18%)
b = 1795 - 1180 = 615 (34%)
c = 1180 - 1433 = 253(21%)
ci= 1433 - 1130 = 303 (21%)

If your counts are true than the waves may unfold as above where wave a and c has same value of 21%.

we can have long debate on this count though, all counts are within proximity of EW possibilities.
 

savvydon

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a = 1920 - 1522 = 398 (21%)
x = 1522 - 1795 = 273 (18%)
b = 1795 - 1180 = 615 (34%)
c = 1180 - 1433 = 253(21%)
ci= 1433 - 1130 = 303 (21%)

If your counts are true than the waves may unfold as above where wave a and c has same value of 21%.

we can have long debate on this count though, all counts are within proximity of EW possibilities.
This is looking at an ABC correction that is one degree larger than the one I have been looking at, although at this point both interpretations are viable. My scenario had the 1180 June bottom as a significant bottom and this current corrective wave correcting the advance from 1180 to 1433 off that bottom. My scenario would be nullified if we broke down below 1180 and the interpretation would default to what lightcycler is discussing. It may take me some time (too much work! :cheerful:) but I would like to present alternative charts at some point so we can visually look at the fork in the road and it's implications going forward.
 

lightcycler

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yes don and dlod. I guess what I'm saying is the count I put forth is now at the top of my list. thanks for the numbers dlod. amazing how fibs work so much as well as wave equality or fib variations. Fun to watch and have a clue on it
 

d-lod

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yes don and dlod. I guess what I'm saying is the count I put forth is now at the top of my list. thanks for the numbers dlod. amazing how fibs work so much as well as wave equality or fib variations. Fun to watch and have a clue on it
lightcycler

Now I believe that you will appreciate your contribution and why I was shouting from rooftop for other poster's view.

Eventually yours and almighty Ihslancers count may come true...................

Enjoy Niagara and USA govt's vow to destroy eastern wisdom. This is era of financial war, and we are mere soldiers.
 

lightcycler

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lightcycler

Now I believe that you will appreciate your contribution and why I was shouting from rooftop for other poster's view.

Eventually yours and almighty Ihslancers count may come true...................

Enjoy Niagara and USA govt's vow to destroy eastern wisdom. This is era of financial war, and we are mere soldiers.
Well if so I'm late and Ihslancers has been on that count for a while. In the end I just try to stay up with the beat and know the major turns when they happen. Really want a bottom to be in because the next move up should be one of beauty. Always seems to take longer than I ever imagined it could
 

lightcycler

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There must be a bearish count missing in here somewhere. Better for the long term I think if we go lower longer than expected. I've seen some counts with bottoms out 2 to 4 years from now. Both scenarios are long term bullish though.
Ya my time frame is weeks......like year end kind of stuff.
 

Ebie

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There must be a bearish count missing in here somewhere. Better for the long term I think if we go lower longer than expected. I've seen some counts with bottoms out 2 to 4 years from now. Both scenarios are long term bullish though.
I'd be surprised if it goes below $1100/oz.
It costs to suppress the price, there is real physical being sold.
It already cost Germany it's gold-sort of.
Why was that story allowed to surface?
 

d-lod

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The metals are doing their own thing now. There was a time when they would rally with the market. Logic would dictate the metals would go higher with the fiscal back drop just goes to show that a market will do what it wants regardless of the news.
This has happened three times when pm were available at production cost, earlier in 2000 when gold was 250+. second time in 1008-09, when gold wad 680+ and now when pm is 1200+

254 -1032 = 8/9 years
681 - 1920 = 2 and 1/2 year
1200 - ? = ? years
 

d-lod

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Not really. Not if you look at that under the surface. If an owner is pessimistic why is that bullish? If he is a seller that would only make the market go lower. No one who posts here has enough buying/selling power to have any effect at all.

IF Gold was going to go higher in the short to intermediate term it would have held the $1500 level. It went considerably lower and is really barely above $1180 now after numerous failed rally attempts.

Silver is in even worse shape than Gold. It couldn't even rally through the bottoms at the $25 level. Even broke through the old highs at $21.30 on the downside.

I think both go much higher than the old highs but it looks like it is going to take years and not just a couple.
I am looking at your theory Ihslancers but still cannot subside my bullish count and will remain hopeful till 1233 and lastly 1208.
 
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10-month ema was the resistance for the rally. the 20-month sma is also another resistance. As long as gold trades below those 2 long-term moving averages, there is no bull market...

in the mean time, stocks and high yield bonds are doing quite well. :)
 

d-lod

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10-month ema was the resistance for the rally. the 20-month sma is also another resistance. As long as gold trades below those 2 long-term moving averages, there is no bull market...

in the mean time, stocks and high yield bonds are doing quite well. :)
scofield

true, your observation are correct, but even in correction mode the upswing has very high velocity, am I right?

No one is fool and atleast not the prudent investor, used to make money smartly. They are your
backup-support, and not the Govt.
 

Rip Van Winkle

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Ihslancers,
I've been following your posts for some years now, you seem like part of the few with a level head and don't get emotionally attached to your investments. What advice would you give a younger guy with some cash to invest now? I've been out of silver and gold for about three years, tried gold stocks (lost my @ss). Not sure what vehicle (Roth, regular taxable acct, or physical) and what asset (stocks, gold, silver, etc) to use going into the future. Right now I'm heavily invested in lendingclub, not sure if that was a good idea or not yet, sitting at 18.5% Apy after 8 months.
 

Ahillock

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Ihslancers,
I've been following your posts for some years now, you seem like part of the few with a level head and don't get emotionally attached to your investments. What advice would you give a younger guy with some cash to invest now? I've been out of silver and gold for about three years, tried gold stocks (lost my @ss). Not sure what vehicle (Roth, regular taxable acct, or physical) and what asset (stocks, gold, silver, etc) to use going into the future. Right now I'm heavily invested in lendingclub, not sure if that was a good idea or not yet, sitting at 18.5% Apy after 8 months.

You want investments? Buy some stawks. I hear those are good. MSM told me that and recovery is just around the corner. :party30:
 

Silver Buck

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Don't give up hope...

I'm working on a cyclical system...

It it based on my RSI cycle...

3 up...

brb...

Teh Bin Gottle demands attention....
 

d-lod

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Fifth minute wave of wave (i) of iii in progress
1251 1288 = 37 3%
1288 1269 = 19 1%
1269 1327 = 58 5%
1327 1310 = 17 1%
1310 1344 = 34 3%
 
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savvydon

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Fifth minute wave of wave (i) of iii in progress
1251 1288 = 37 3%
1288 1269 = 19 1%
1269 1327 = 58 5%
1327 1310 = 17 1%
1310 1344 = 34 3%
D-lod, are you referring to the recent price action since the low of Oct 15th?
 

lightcycler

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yaa and may retrace to 1322 / 1309 / 1297 level
Love seeing the numbers Dlod. For my edification why do you not include the 0.618 retrace as a possible? My knowledge of wave 2's in a broad since is very normal to reach 0.618. Something you've learned with gold? If the count is correct then after the retracement that 3 of 3 should have some nice action :)
 

d-lod

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Love seeing the numbers Dlod. For my edification why do you not include the 0.618 retrace as a possible? My knowledge of wave 2's in a broad since is very normal to reach 0.618. Something you've learned with gold? If the count is correct then after the retracement that 3 of 3 should have some nice action :)
lightcycler

EW is funny, and everyone talks of different codes to label waves but I am talking about primary wave which is {(3)} that has started from 681 - 4500 or what ever, so that is subdivide in intermediate (1) which was from 681 - 1912. and (2) reacted till 1180 (IF THAT CORRECTION IS OVER), so now we are in (3) that has started from 1180. And in that we are in minor 1.

Ok let me not confuse you any further but we are in minutte wave [iii] of minute wave ([1]) of minor wave 1 of intermediate (3).....................isn't it confusing so lets pay attention to this wave intermediate (3), I have replaced it with roman number, so I just call it MAJOR THREE,

Since germany has demanded their gold there is no EW rules that are followed.

By rule third wave corrections are shallow, but we had extended rally as well as extended correction.
 

savvydon

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lightcycler

EW is funny, and everyone talks of different codes to label waves but I am talking about primary wave which is {(3)} that has started from 681 - 4500 or what ever, so that is subdivide in intermediate (1) which was from 681 - 1912. and (2) reacted till 1180 (IF THAT CORRECTION IS OVER), so now we are in (3) that has started from 1180. And in that we are in minor 1.

Ok let me not confuse you any further but we are in minutte wave [iii] of minute wave ([1]) of minor wave 1 of intermediate (3).....................isn't it confusing so lets pay attention to this wave intermediate (3), I have replaced it with roman number, so I just call it MAJOR THREE,

Since germany has demanded their gold there is no EW rules that are followed.

By rule third wave corrections are shallow, but we had extended rally as well as extended correction.
d-lod my count is the same as yours short term, but we are off kilter long term. I have us in the middle of minute 1 (assuming we are done with this correction and said goodbye to 1180), of minor three of intermediate five of primary three. Terminology is key here as it is hard to compare notes if we are not speaking the same language, so feel free to correct me where you see appropriate to. Also it seems to me that counting Elliot waves in the shorter term is complicated by not having an accurate longer term count. Therefore I would like to see if we can find common ground and unify a count. The words get very complicated without a picture, so I will illustrate with a couple of charts. The first is a longer term picture with the Price of Gold charted adjusted for the CPI. Don't let the 'distortion' bother you as it doesn't change the count.

screenshot_40.jpg