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GOLD IN FIFTH WAVE

d-lod

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hey all GIMERS

Can you guys help me and let me know, which are the best agent in IRVIN, Dallas area and premium for one ounce, 100 gram and kilo bar?

Thanks
 

TomJerry

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Well my targets are in, or very close anyway. I guess I'll take the advices of the technical analysts and wait some more though. Here's to being greedy. :coolbeer:
 
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Thanks Gcubed

What are the premium on 1 oz. of gold bar, this is for my aunt and at seventies she is investing her life saving so I want to be cautious in giving her advice.

The right time to purchase will come sub 1500.
Thanks again Gcubed
You'll have to call for prices. The link I gave should get you started.
 

TomJerry

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PMs are looking pretty stable. Are we still looking to target lower prices in the short term from a technical standpoint?
 

d-lod

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d lod, the stress is getting to me. I've been watching the ticker almost constantly for the last 48 hours. I've decided to use a significant amount of my remaining dry powder if/when gold dips below 1600 and silver below 30. If it goes lower than that so be it.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saxena/sep302011.html


Puru Saxena is among few analytical technician who is proven right often.

After reviewing a host of technical and fundamental data, we are of the view that the world’s stock and commodity markets may be on the verge of a big slide. Remember, for almost two years, the Federal Reserve supported the ‘risk trade’ via quantitative easing. However, it has now left the party, which means that the private-sector credit contraction in the developed world is reasserting its upper hand. For instance, a variety of credit spreads are rising, interest rates on Eurodollars are appreciating (shortage of dollars outside the US), the Federal Reserve is desperately trying to provide liquidity via its swap lines and the US Treasury market is signaling a severe economic contraction.
 

GOLD DUCK

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The big question seems to be whether or not we see a replay of 2008 in the pm market. I don't think so. Everyone was looking for a major rally in September didn't get it. I think those looking for lower pm's from here will be disappointed.
QWAK,lhslancers,I think -- we are in CHOPPY WATER:ahhhhh::afraid: and the STORM/TRANSITION is happening :alberteinstein::hahaha::yes:

Top off the TANKS and finish off the PREPING :yes::36_1_11:

I think it best to try an ignore the FIAT pricing at this point. :yes:

Sort of like Dorthy in OZ -- WE are going back HOME :wink::shine:

Just CLICK your GOLD EAGLES together and say the words -- ONLY GOLD is MONEY! :hahaha::yes::23_30_104:

I dbout it will be quite THAT easy :stupido2: like in the movie, BUT I have NO dbouts that the FIAT CREDIT/DEBT SLAVERY system is CRASHING all around us and the REAL GOLD and SILVER will be the RAFT we can ride out the STORM/TRANSITION on and be in position to HELP start somthing NEW and much better and fairer to everyone! :yes::shine:

The FIAT DEBT can NEVER be repayed :452: it will have to be FORGIVEN/WRITEN OFF -- one way or another -- hopfully NOT a GLOBAL WAR :ahhhhh: BUT the DEBTS will be eliminated!:yes:

This is what and WHY we have been PREPARING for!:idea::yes: -- I expect things to change much faster and be more EXTREAM as the implosion and TRANSITION continues! :shine::36_3_13:

That is how I see it from my POND :hahaha::yes: -- now I will go PONDER on this subject because the DUCK POND is just the right temp. :wink: for ME! :yes:

the DUCK :15_1_70v:
 
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d-lod

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The big question seems to be whether or not we see a replay of 2008 in the pm market. I don't think so. Everyone was looking for a major rally in September didn't get it. I think those looking for lower pm's from here will be disappointed.

That's right lhslancers3270

This is wave third correction and it decline very less, because of high momentum.

But the fact remains that in 2008 the price declined by 44.9% of price rise, if that is considered for this wave than 1360 (38.2) and 1300 ( 44.9%).
 

Curtman

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Curtman

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DOW (Mini)
1month
FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-1.62)

10913.38 10841.0 -258.00 10839.38 10841.0 1.62
Last Updated: 4:14:56 PM

S&P 500
1month
FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-0.13)

1131.42 1126.0 -30.30 1125.87 1126.0 0.13
Last Updated: 4:23:26 PM

NASDAQ (Mini)
1month
FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-0.07)

2139.18 2134.5 -55.00 2134.43 2134.5 0.07
Last Updated: 4:14:59 PM
 

d-lod

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QWAK,lhslancers,I think -- we are in CHOPPY WATER:ahhhhh::afraid: and the STORM/TRANSITION is happening :alberteinstein::hahaha::yes:

Top off the TANKS and finish off the PREPING :yes::36_1_11:

I think it best to try an ignore the FIAT pricing at this point. :yes:

Sort of like Dorthy in OZ -- WE are going back HOME :wink::shine:

Just CLICK your GOLD EAGLES together and say the words -- ONLY GOLD is MONEY! :hahaha::yes::23_30_104:

I dbout it will be quite THAT easy :stupido2: like in the movie, BUT I have NO dbouts that the FIAT CREDIT/DEBT SLAVERY system is CRASHING all around us and the REAL GOLD and SILVER will be the RAFT we can ride out the STORM/TRANSITION on and be in position to HELP start somthing NEW and much better and fairer to everyone! :yes::shine:

The FIAT DEBT can NEVER be repayed :452: it will have to be FORGIVEN/WRITEN OFF -- one way or another -- hopfully NOT a GLOBAL WAR :ahhhhh: BUT the DEBTS will be eliminated!:yes:

This is what and WHY we have been PREPARING for!:idea::yes: -- I expect things to change much faster and be more EXTREAM as the implosion and TRANSITION continues! :shine::36_3_13:

That is how I see it from my POND :hahaha::yes: -- now I will go PONDER on this subject because the DUCK POND is just the right temp. :wink: for ME! :yes:

the DUCK :15_1_70v:
GOLD DUCK

The dollar index if retreat from top of 121 to 70.79 it could react to 82.5 t0 86 and that could be the technical reason for gold and silver's lower paper prices.

Those who play physical has less profit because of high premium, so eventually the % of physical player will reduce. Thie is an era of backwardation as per say A. Fakate.............

So share with us what right tempered environ suggest you. More the merrier.
 

d-lod

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Steep uptrend violated on this P and F chart. You can see where support comes in.
lhslancers3270

Thanks for the chart, as I have yet to learn uploading one from stockchart/netdania, I am thankful to you for doing that for me. The chart speaks clearly that it is trying to break and has broken steep support line often, and next support is at 1350ish. The banker have grown appetite for the gold that they have sold between 450 to 800$
 

GOLD DUCK

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GOLD DUCK

The dollar index if retreat from top of 121 to 70.79 it could react to 82.5 t0 86 and that could be the technical reason for gold and silver's lower paper prices.

Those who play physical has less profit because of high premium, so eventually the % of physical player will reduce. Thie is an era of backwardation as per say A. Fakate.............

So share with us what right tempered environ suggest you. More the merrier.
QWAK,d-lod,When I first learned about GOLD being MONEY I was told that GOLD acts like a MAGNET:yes: atracting more GOLD and more other kinds of WEALTH :hahaha:when it is RESPECTED for what it can do beyond being -- MONEY!:alberteinstein:

Just SAVING in REAL MONEY -- GOLD and SILVER :idea:changes how we see and value things and over time there is a cumulitive effect!:yes::36_1_11:

The profit in $$$ is a false profit that does NOT exist -- it is the GHOST of DEBT/SLAVERY that must be put to rest!:yes:

The knolage and understanding that comes is the REAL PROFIT because YOU will be able to use it WISELEY and make it GROW in the future! :yes::36_3_13::shine:

the DUCK :15_1_70v:
 

Silver Buck

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Steep uptrend violated on this P and F chart. You can see where support comes in.
I've been a skeptic of some TA, but I always keep an open mind. I decided to do a free-hand red line of A-B, and a dark green line of C-D. I then copied the slope of C-D and pasted it on a couple of other trends and was fascinated by the results.



There does seem to be a bit more validity to Fibs and Waves than what I gave them credit for.
 

d-lod

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My Dear Extended Family:



Here are some words from Master Kenny:



"If December does NOT correct with lower closes over the next one or two days, but instead closes above $1695 over the next several days, then our figures would consider this corrective action as finished - albeit the normal back and forth widening action to come, notwithstanding. The other option (still in play), is a continuation of a V bottom and a spike rally moving very quickly up to the second resistance level at $1800/$1850, with very little widening along the way."
well everyone has different opinion.

but mine is stable and that is gold has to undergo correction more
 

lightcycler

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I've been a skeptic of some TA, but I always keep an open mind. I decided to do a free-hand red line of A-B, and a dark green line of C-D. I then copied the slope of C-D and pasted it on a couple of other trends and was fascinated by the results.



There does seem to be a bit more validity to Fibs and Waves than what I gave them credit for.


I have watched for many years with amazment at fib retracements etc. It is a tool and a guide and is used with other tools to be right more often. Sometimes......still wrong :)
 

d-lod

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Gold is having problems trading over the old gap in the 1680 area. So long as we stay under we are still in a corrective mode. I think Sinclair and Adams are looking for one more new high before we undergo a more serious correction.

lhslancers3270

LETS RIDE THE WAVE...................let it be monalisa


Corrective wave - irregular correction........ABC 3-3-5

A..................1912.02 - 1702.48 = 209.54
B..................1702.02 - 1920.74 = 218.26
Ca................1920.74 - 1532.59 = 388.15
Cb = B x.6......1532.59 - 1665.72 = 133.13
Cb = B x 1......1532.59 - 1750.85 = 218.26
Cb = B x 1.6...1532.59 - 1881.80 = 388.15

1665.........1750.........1881..........give and take few dollars............
Once Cb is complete will calculate Cc

Any query?
 
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Curtman

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Guess I'll be going in here soon for a stake.
 

Curtman

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I know. I am only after the scalp between 1:00 and the close.
 

TomJerry

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You done OK. :coolbeer:
TJ

Seasoning and flavouring come with failure and experiences. Down the road in 5-6 years you will get 10 time of it. So party
:biggrin::cake:
You're probably right but nevertheless I still feel sick for buying at near highs during this correction. I couldn't be a day trader. This has been eating me up inside.
 

CiscoKid

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You're probably right but nevertheless I still feel sick for buying at near highs during this correction. I couldn't be a day trader. This has been eating me up inside.
You feel bad for picking up $30 silver? Try not to sweat the small stuff so much. With silver I don't worry about a couple of bucks here and there. With gold I don't sweat the fifties. I mean, what's three percent really mean? I know I'll never hit the exact bottoms so I just pull the trigger when I can. The main thing is that you added to your stack. In five years you won't be worrying about it, why worry now?
 

d-lod

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You feel bad for picking up $30 silver? Try not to sweat the small stuff so much. With silver I don't worry about a couple of bucks here and there. With gold I don't sweat the fifties. I mean, what's three percent really mean? I know I'll never hit the exact bottoms so I just pull the trigger when I can. The main thing is that you added to your stack. In five years you won't be worrying about it, why worry now?
TJ


That is lot of consolation, should be partying with us that yo are going to triple your FRN in less than two years. And as I said TA is right 7 out of 10 times, so far in both gold and silver the prediction have come right but what if I am not right about correction. The second level of correction was 26 and it has been achieved and after that you have got silver at right price.
If it goes below 26 than you may peak more.:s11:
 

eboard10

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d-lod, is it possible that we're going to see an ABC type of correction where gold rises up to $1700-1800 before going down to a low of ~$1400-1500?
 

d-lod

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lhslancers3270

LETS RIDE THE WAVE...................let it be monalisa


Corrective wave - irregular correction........ABC 3-3-5

A..................1912.02 - 1702.48 = 209.54
B..................1702.02 - 1920.74 = 218.26
Ca................1920.74 - 1532.59 = 388.15
Cb = B x.6......1532.59 - 1665.72 = 133.13
Cb = B x 1......1532.59 - 1750.85 = 218.26
Cb = B x 1.6...1532.59 - 1881.80 = 388.15

1665.........1750.........1881..........give and take few dollars............
Once Cb is complete will calculate Cc

Any query?
eboard10


This are few of the wave fourth top mentioned earlier. If gold breaks the resistance of 1665 than next level is 1750.
 

d-lod

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This is starting to feel very similar to the correction we saw off $720 down to $540 a few years back. We touched $540 overnight but didn't see much below $580 in NY the next week. Quite a few were frozen and wouldn't buy until that level was retested. If you remember we rallied over $100 off the $1535 low this time and haven't come close to retesting that level. Lots of worried bulls now. I have to like this bottoming action. Nothing goes straight up do not allow yourself to miss out on these prices if you are a long term bull.
lhslancers3270

What are the similarities except for overnight pricing? It was longest correction though for the mentality of than investors.
 

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d-lod

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Gold came within a few dollars of retesting the 200 day moving average in spot at 1535 I believe it was 1528 that day. Close enough for me. Seems to me most if not all the specs have been cleaned out of this market. It is very difficult to get every turn to the dollar even using E wave.

Have you tested the fibs and waves you are using since the 1999-2001 bottom and found it to be correct 100% every turn?
lhslancers3270

That a good question and I will do that exercise, and for that I will be referring Alf.

Regarding 200 DMA, it may not be fruitful to compare a minor wave with a major. I will do the detailed work.
 

d-lod

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Ain't I tell you earlier Maund is leg C convert.

Continuously this thread has been able to give right targets.




http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/maund100811.html


Other reasons why the imminent sharp drop expected should mark the end of gold's reactive phase are to be seen on its 1-year chart. On this chart we can see that a decline to or below its recent panic lows will take it deep into strong support near to its rising 200-day moving average, the classic point for a major reaction in an ongoing bullmarket to end.
 

lightcycler

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Well we have had some interesting action of late ........ok not so interesting :) I have followed Robert McHugh at technicalindicatorindex for many years and he has been pretty spot on with respect to gold. Believes there is a good chance we completed Wave A of a triangle for Intermediate Wave 4. Certainly only time will tell and will be easy to see if and when that blows up. Bottom boundry for that triangle sits at around 1550. That would be the floor at this time for any drop if that is whats occuring. Upside would be around 1850. Tis possible we will be in this range for a while. Thoughts?
 

REO 54

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Gold Traders Turn Most Bullish in Three Months After 20% Rout: Commodities.......

Gold’s biggest slump in three years means traders and analysts are now the most bullish in three months, speculating that Europe’s debt crisis, slowing growth and a bear market in equities will drive demand for bullion.

Twenty-two of 25 people surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to rise next week, the highest proportion since mid-July. Prices rebounded 8.3 percent since reaching a two-month low at the end of September and investors are adding to their holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products for the first time in a month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Traders also expect gains in copper, sugar, corn and soybeans, surveys show.

Gold slumped as much as 20 percent since reaching a record $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 6 as investors sold the metal to cover losses in other markets. As much as $4.2 trillion was erased from the value of global equities in the past month on mounting concern that economies will tip back into recession and European lawmakers will fail to prevent sovereign defaults. The last time traders and analysts were this bullish, bullion surged 21 percent to an all-time high within eight weeks.

“There’s macro-economic, systemic and monetary risk in the world and there’s no sign of that going away any time soon,” said Mark O’Byrne, the Dublin-based executive director of GoldCore Ltd., a brokerage handling everything from quarter- ounce British Sovereigns to one-kilogram (2.2-pound) bars. “All the factors that drove gold to a record are still there.”

Bank of America
Gold advanced 17 percent this year to $1,662.90 by 12:51 p.m. in New York yesterday, heading for an 11th consecutive annual advance. It’s the second-best performer behind gasoil in the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities, which fell 2 percent. The MSCI All-Country World Index of equities fell 10 percent and Treasuries returned 7.4 percent, according to a Bank of America Corp. index.

Bullion dropped 11 percent in September, the most since October 2008. That spurred speculators in U.S. futures to cut their net-long position, or bets on higher prices, to the lowest since February by Oct. 4, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They held a net 127,249 futures and options, 13 percent below the average over the past five years.

Investors reduced their holdings in gold-backed ETPs by almost 17 metric tons last month, a pile now valued at about $900 million, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They added 3.4 tons so far this week, taking combined assets to 2,213 tons, more than the holdings of all but four central banks.

Accelerating Purchases
Those central banks are also accelerating their purchases. Thailand, Bolivia and Tajikistan bought a combined 18.2 tons in August, International Monetary Fund data show. The slump in prices means more buying for reserves is “very likely,” according to Edel Tully, a London-based analyst at UBS AG. Central banks are adding to their holdings for a third year, the longest expansion in almost four decades.

The traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are also bullish on copper, which entered a bear market last month after slumping more than 20 percent from a peak in July. Seven of nine people expect prices to rise next week. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark contract, dropped 24 percent to $7,310 a ton this year. Copper reached a 14-month low of $6,635 on Oct. 3 as investors speculated that slowing growth will curb demand for raw materials.

China, the world’s biggest copper consumer, imported the most metal in 16 months in September, customs data show. Diego Hernandez, chief executive officer of Codelco, the largest copper producer, said in an interview in London on Oct. 4 that the Asian nation should take advantage of the slump to restock.

Warehouse Stockpiles
While Barclays Capital cut its forecast for this year’s shortfall in copper supply five times since April, the bank is still predicting a 468,000-ton deficit. That’s enough metal to supply Japan for five months. Stockpiles in warehouses monitored by exchanges in London, Shanghai and New York fell about 8 percent since the end of March, a sign production is still failing to keep up with demand.

“Should debt concerns in the euro zone recede, we are looking to more fundamentally based trading through next year where the likes of copper should benefit,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital in London. “We just need to shake off macro fears and concentrate on market specifics.”

Seven of 12 people surveyed anticipate gains in raw-sugar prices next week and eight said white, or refined, sugar would also advance. Raw sugar traded on ICE Futures U.S. in New York slipped 16 percent this year to 26.91 cents a pound. White sugar traded on NYSE Liffe in London fell 12 percent to $684.10 a ton.

Top Producer
Raw sugar climbed 7 percent this week and white sugar 4.7 percent on speculation that flooding in Thailand, the world’s second-largest shipper, may delay harvests at a time when mills in top producer Brazil are ending their season early.

The Thai sugar harvest may be delayed by two weeks, according to Newedge Group SA. Mills in Brazil’s Sao Paulo state, which accounts for more than 50 percent of the nation’s cane production, started shutting for the season in late September, the earliest in 12 years, because of a smaller crop, according to Celso Junqueira Franco, president of the Union of Biofuel Producers.

Fourteen of 28 people surveyed expect corn to rise next week and 19 of 27 anticipate the same thing for soybeans. Prices for both crops plunged by the most in at least three years last month on prospects for improving harvests. Both commodities rose the most in a year or more on Oct. 11 on the Chicago Board of Trade as traders speculated that declines in September would boost purchases by makers of food, animal feed and biofuels.

“Commodity markets are in the process of bottoming out and I think it may take a little time, maybe a few months, to solidify that bottom,” said James Paulsen, the chief investment strategist at Minneapolis-based Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $360 billion of assets. “You will see commodities going up now. The intensity of commodity selling may be ending and we may be heading in another direction.”

Gold survey results: Bullish: 22 Bearish: 1 Hold: 2
Copper survey results: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 1 Hold: 1
Corn survey results: Bullish: 14 Bearish: 9 Hold: 5
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 19 Bearish: 5 Hold: 3
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 4 Hold: 1
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 8 Bearish: 3 Hold: 1
White sugar premium results: Widen: 6 Narrow: 2 Neutral: 4
To contact the reporters on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net
 

d-lod

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Not sure how that applies to sentiment I don't see unfair spreads where I buy.
If it would have been bearish sentiment as you said than people wouldn't be lining to take physical delivery. People would have waited for gold to nose dive south. As people are buying that means they are bullish.


Gold’s biggest slump in three years means traders and analysts are now the most bullish in three months, speculating that Europe’s debt crisis, slowing growth and a bear market in equities will drive demand for bullion.

Twenty-two of 25 people surveyed by Bloomberg expect the metal to rise next week, the highest proportion since mid-July. Prices rebounded 8.3 percent since reaching a two-month low at the end of September and investors are adding to their holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products for the first time in a month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Traders also expect gains in copper, sugar, corn and soybeans, surveys show.

This survey shows gold will correct further.
 

d-lod

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d-lod, not really sure how you deduced from the quote that gold will correct further....?

Also, does the same apply to silver?
eboard10

When sentiment is bullish, contarian go opposite and market falls. Right now everyone is buying that is why deliveries of metal is delayed by weeks. That proves that prices will fall, the big player are giving to greed driven people . When this greed turns in fear, the big player will by from them.

Look out for next week's fall.
 

REO 54

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"Look out for next week's fall. " d-lod

Maybe in time for next weeks Silver Summit in Spokane which I will be attending.Could be in time for some good shopping no/yes? :D
 
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