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GOLD IN FIFTH WAVE

REO 54

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I'm having trouble understanding this thread, and the analysis herein.

I like to think I'm a pretty smart guy, and have taken my share of graduate finance courses, but this is all greek to me.

Some of the "technical" analysis seems like BS. It's like you're flipping a coin, and when you see it land on heads 5 times in a row you draw a line and call it an up-trend.

To me, investing in PMs is more logic than math. Governments creating fiat without any new wealth creation = inflation, increasing prices, and low interest rates. Commodities (PM's) hold their value.

A vast oversimplification, but one that has so far done well for me.

But I'm always looking to learn something new.

Can someone put the community concensus into simple terms? Is everyone expecting higher gold and silver prices or lower? Is this a time to buy or sell? Are the primary drivers right now the economic fundamentals or excessive speculation/manipulation?

I feel out of place reading this thread, hope someone will pity my ignorance and break it down.

Thanks
It's just another type of crystal ball.I too suffer from a lack of understanding of all this chart interpetation.However it does'nt stop me from trying
too learn.For me I use what I can and the rest I put aside until it makes sense, or not. The important thing is that i/we are paying attention
to what happening to the fiat situation and learning about real money.No matter what,I'm buying.Strong and long hands.FWIW.
 

TomJerry

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I'm having trouble understanding this thread, and the analysis herein.

I like to think I'm a pretty smart guy, and have taken my share of graduate finance courses, but this is all greek to me.

Some of the "technical" analysis seems like BS. It's like you're flipping a coin, and when you see it land on heads 5 times in a row you draw a line and call it an up-trend.

To me, investing in PMs is more logic than math. Governments creating fiat without any new wealth creation = inflation, increasing prices, and low interest rates. Commodities (PM's) hold their value.

A vast oversimplification, but one that has so far done well for me.

But I'm always looking to learn something new.

Can someone put the community concensus into simple terms? Is everyone expecting higher gold and silver prices or lower? Is this a time to buy or sell? Are the primary drivers right now the economic fundamentals or excessive speculation/manipulation?

I feel out of place reading this thread, hope someone will pity my ignorance and break it down.

Thanks
I think the consensus here (maybe 100% from the regulars?) is that the PMs are going higher long term. Some think much much higher. But that is to be expected on a PM forum I assume. As far as when to buy, the TA try to predict the peaks and valleys but it's all just short term noise. If you're buying to protect wealth and to hold long term then I'd say jump in during this next beat down.
 

CiscoKid

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Well, I'm looking at $1,680 and APMEX is offering those Pamp Suisse bars at $39 over spot. Pull the trigger now or wait to see the whites of their eyes?
 

d-lod

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I'm having trouble understanding this thread, and the analysis herein.

I like to think I'm a pretty smart guy, and have taken my share of graduate finance courses, but this is all greek to me.

Some of the "technical" analysis seems like BS. It's like you're flipping a coin, and when you see it land on heads 5 times in a row you draw a line and call it an up-trend.

To me, investing in PMs is more logic than math. Governments creating fiat without any new wealth creation = inflation, increasing prices, and low interest rates. Commodities (PM's) hold their value.

A vast oversimplification, but one that has so far done well for me.

But I'm always looking to learn something new.

Can someone put the community concensus into simple terms? Is everyone expecting higher gold and silver prices or lower? Is this a time to buy or sell? Are the primary drivers right now the economic fundamentals or excessive speculation/manipulation?

I feel out of place reading this thread, hope someone will pity my ignorance and break it down.

Thanks




pedzola

Thankfully this is the only thread where we have kept our head on our shoulder. Time and again lately among all chaos I have been continuously posting that gold will come down.

Thanks for asking.
 

d-lod

dawn
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It's just another type of crystal ball.I too suffer from a lack of understanding of all this chart interpetation.However it does'nt stop me from trying
too learn.For me I use what I can and the rest I put aside until it makes sense, or not. The important thing is that i/we are paying attention
to what happening to the fiat situation and learning about real money.No matter what,I'm buying.Strong and long hands.FWIW.


REO 54

Bro believe me I want to simplify things, how can I, is it the terminology? or EW, or my language?
 

d-lod

dawn
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I think the consensus here (maybe 100% from the regulars?) is that the PMs are going higher long term. Some think much much higher. But that is to be expected on a PM forum I assume. As far as when to buy, the TA try to predict the peaks and valleys but it's all just short term noise. If you're buying to protect wealth and to hold long term then I'd say jump in during this next beat down.
TomJerry


Still not listening to me..........................ha ......ha.......... tell me when this thread has been wrong in its prediction? CMT like Maund has changed his opinion twice/thrice but I have been stickler of my analysis.

Don't buy long term stuff and physical
 

REO 54

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REO 54

Bro believe me I want to simplify things, how can I, is it the terminology? or EW, or my language?

Don't misunderstand me.It's not you d-lod that needs to simplify.It is I who need to learn more about such trems etc ,which I have by reading this thread and others.This forum is a great education overall.
Thank you for your posts.
 
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pedzola

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Thanks for the replies. I am new to this.

D-lod, what do you think is/are the primary driver(s) for a lower gold price?

Do you think prices will be depressed for a significant amount of time or is this going to be a quick correction before a breakout?

Where do you think the bottom will be?


I think it's the language of EW and technical analysis that I have difficulty following. Also hard for me to understand chart voodoo without logic attached. But then, I guess markets aren't always logical.
 

TomJerry

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TomJerry


Still not listening to me..........................ha ......ha.......... tell me when this thread has been wrong in its prediction? CMT like Maund has changed his opinion twice/thrice but I have been stickler of my analysis.

Don't buy long term stuff and physical
I never said you were wrong...I was just giving him general advise on buying pms.
 

pimples

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haven't done one these in quite awhile.....maybe this whole set is just a giant wave 1 broken into 5 pieces?....that would suck though because per ew principles, "2 often retraces nearly all of 1" ... even more possible because this little number 2 did not 'mostly retrace its number 1', so could negate this set.....1050 support and i think the bull market would be over....merry christmas one and all

zgold.jpg
 

d-lod

dawn
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haven't done one these in quite awhile.....maybe this whole set is just a giant wave 1 broken into 5 pieces?....that would suck though because per ew principles, "2 often retraces nearly all of 1" ... even more possible because this little number 2 did not 'mostly retrace its number 1', so could negate this set.....1050 support and i think the bull market would be over....merry christmas one and all

View attachment 13488
pimples

You are a rare gem. For some reason I am not able to upload charts from netdania and you have helped me in what I was trying to say all along.

That this may not be THIRD WAVE, but wave fifth of WAVE ONE.
 

d-lod

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It does this every year doesn't it? It goes down for the holiday season and them shoots right back up after the new year until the June swoon?


oninismo

Seasonality has been suggesting mass psychology so you may be right there. Thanks for your post
 

d-lod

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Thanks for the replies. I am new to this.

D-lod, what do you think is/are the primary driver(s) for a lower gold price?

Do you think prices will be depressed for a significant amount of time or is this going to be a quick correction before a breakout?

Where do you think the bottom will be?


I think it's the language of EW and technical analysis that I have difficulty following. Also hard for me to understand chart voodoo without logic attached. But then, I guess markets aren't always logical.
From pimple's chart and my analysis from last few pages you will sure get the idea that itis purely technical and mass psychology.
 

CiscoKid

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Hope you didn't pull the trigger at 1680.
I did not. Went and did some work on my farm. All showered up with a cold frosty in my hand looking at $1,574 and thinking it couldn't hurt to buy half of what I intend to buy. Could it???

I look at my avatar and it seems to me that she is saying, rather suggestively at that, "Just do it already".
 

TomJerry

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I did not. Went and did some work on my farm. All showered up with a cold frosty in my hand looking at $1,574 and thinking it couldn't hurt to buy half of what I intend to buy. Could it???

I look at my avatar and it seems to me that she is saying, rather suggestively at that, "Just do it already".
I'm thinking about backing up the truck with my remaining dry powder for gold. Thoughts?
 

CiscoKid

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I'm thinking about backing up the truck with my remaining dry powder for gold. Thoughts?
Did it about two hours ago. But I did not back the truck up. Went in lightly and will not lose any sleep over the Pamp Suisse bars heading my way. Tomorrow is another day. Still have dry powder if the water is fine.
 

klichko

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Thanks for paying attention

Thank you for sharing your analysis! When you first stated your numbers, they were hard to believe. We are getting closer now. I have been waiting patiently for those magic numbers, making only smaller purchases of collector items (slabbed ATBs, proof dragons and, most importantly, 25th Anniversary SAE sets).

I wonder what is you view on gold vs. silver performance in the future? I am kind of heavy in silver and thought I should be adding more gold this time. Yet, if silver outperforms gold in a shorter term, it may be better to buy silver now and swap it later. Silver dropped more than gold percentage-wise; it may rebound faster and stronger, too.
 

d-lod

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Thank you for sharing your analysis! When you first stated your numbers, they were hard to believe. We are getting closer now. I have been waiting patiently for those magic numbers, making only smaller purchases of collector items (slabbed ATBs, proof dragons and, most importantly, 25th Anniversary SAE sets).

I wonder what is you view on gold vs. silver performance in the future? I am kind of heavy in silver and thought I should be adding more gold this time. Yet, if silver outperforms gold in a shorter term, it may be better to buy silver now and swap it later. Silver dropped more than gold percentage-wise; it may rebound faster and stronger, too.


Silver has not crossed 1980 top, once it will, it will paint town red.

Thanks
 

d-lod

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http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wagner/dec162011.html


Chart 3 (above) labels our major impulse waves 1 through 4. Waves 1 and 3 are the primary impulse waves, separated by two counter waves (2 and 4). According to Elliott wave theory and Fibonacci forecasting models wave 5 has the potential to be the largest of the three impulse rallies. It is from this model that we derived the projections seen in the chart above. The last impulse wave could last anywhere from eight months to just over year. The conclusion and top of this wave I believe could occur as early as the beginning of 2013 with gold prices as high as $2400 per ounce.


The chart above is a 360 min. Japanese average chart. It clearly shows that we have hit a pivot point (c, C) that should be followed with a rally. The most probable outcome is an intermediate rally (4), followed by one final corrective wave, which will conclude wave C.

Over the last two years gold has corrected near the end of the year and bottoms around February of the following year. If this timeline repeats itself this year we should see our final impulse wave begin around the beginning of 2012. This will signal the potential for a crescendo in gold prices unlike any witnessed before. According to Elliott wave theory the best is yet to come and gold will rise to new all-time highs next year.

According to R.N. Elliott this technique is based upon the acceptance that there is a rhythm in nature. This rhythm is guided by universal physical laws that contain order and consistency. Even though we may not understand the cause underlying a particular phenomenon, by observation we can predict that's phenomenon's reoccurrence.
 

d-lod

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d-lod, can I ask what timeframe are we looking at for the drop in gold price?
As each wave is multitudly larger so would be correction and time frame. This may take 9 months of correction.


http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20120305.html

On its 15-month chart we can see that gold reversed after making a close approach to its highs of last November which formed beneath the resistance at the lower boundary of the top area of last August - September. Unable to break above these highs, it caved in last week. The magnitude of the drop on Wednesday and the high volume that accompanied it are a sign of an important reversal, so we can expect to see gold heading lower in coming days and weeks. While it is true that moving averages are in favorable alignment, this is unlikely to help much, and gold will not be "out of the woods" until it can break above the strong resistance towards and at $1800. The strong support shown on the chart at about $1550 must hold - if it fails gold will enter a bearmarket. At present gold can be considered to be rangebound.
 

d-lod

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http://www.kitco.com/ind/Maund/20120402A.html


Hoarder this is for you

Gold and silver's recent reaction has brought a lot of conspiracy theorists out of the woodwork again as usual, harping on about "The Cartel" and their cruel and wicked plan to suppress the gold price, and deprive PM sector investors and speculators of the rich rewards they have been looking forward to for so long, all because a rise in the price of gold and silver will declare to the world the bankruptcy of their fiat monetary system. Well, if that their aim, our first chart at the top of the page shows that they have not had much success with their evil plan, as gold has risen from a low at about $250 to a recent high above $1900 in just 11 years - so much for the success of The Cartel. Carping on about some shady bunch of manipulators suppressing the gold price makes about as much sense as moaning to a gas station attendant about the price of gas - stop wasting time and pay up and get on with your life. So what if the gold and silver price are being manipulated to some extent? - most markets are - those in power will always manipulate things to their advantage, that's basic human nature. If you must ask questions then the point to start is to enquire about why these people are promulgating these conspiracy theories in the first place - are they just cranks or are they making money out of it some way - what's their angle?

The latest COTs for gold look positive - Commercial short and Large Spec long positions are at a relatively low level again - similar to the levels prevailing before the sizeable rally in gold and silver that occurred in January and February, as can be seen on the COT chart below. This is another factor pointing to an imminent rally.
The other interpretation, which is coexistent with the Head-and-Shoulders continuation pattern interpretation is that gold is marking out a 3-arc Fan Correction, as shown on the 1-year chart Chart B below. This interpretation is given added credence by the high volume that accompanied the breakout above the 2nd fanline in January and by the way the price found support at this fanline when it reacted back in March. The rule is that once the price breaks above the 3rd fanline of the 3-arc Fan Correction, it is free to take off higher, but if we have figured out the game plan in advance we don't have to miss out on a juicy $100 advance to that point while we wait for such confirmation. Instead, buying now and jamming in a stop below the support shown makes a lot more sense from a risk/reward perspective.

This is Clives's favorite technique and so is mine, once the are is taken it goes to next level.
 

d-lod

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http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/bloom040812.html


Based on the scale of this chart, the gold price could "churn" for upwards of five years before it finally touches the second most steeply ascending trend line. That being the case, if the prevailing trend line is penetrated on the downside, (which the sell signal on the PMO indicates is probable) then the shakeout could see a pullback of at least $400 (to $1250). But the 3% X 3 box reversal P&F chart below (courtesy stockcharts.com) suggests that it might fall as low as $1109 - which implies that even the second most steeply rising trend-line in the above chart might be penetrated on the downside - depending on how long it takes for that target to be reached.





My original apprehension about metals being in 5th wave of BIG I rather than 3rd of THREE.
 

d-lod

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http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/bloom040812.html









My original apprehension about metals being in 5th wave of BIG I rather than 3rd of THREE.


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/jones040912.html

Was shown above, I believe that short term targets to the downside are likely somewhere in the 1,475 - 1,525 price range. I think gold will find a major bottom near these levels and a strong bounce will play out. For long term buyers, I would take advantage of the forthcoming pullback. However, I would be mindful that further selling is quite possible before gold finds a major bottom.

Since gold started its correction, on this thread, it was stated that gold will come down to 1450 ish level.
 

REO 54

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I think we are seeing high level consolidation in Gold and Silver Wave 3 of 3 action just passed we are in Wave 4 of 3 with another run up coming. Maybe 3K Gold 65ish Silver then a large breakdown. I don't think I will hold through a Wave 4 correction.
So you're going to sell out at the top and put that capital into.......what? Just curious.
 

southfork

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I think we are seeing high level consolidation in Gold and Silver Wave 3 of 3 action just passed we are in Wave 4 of 3 with another run up coming. Maybe 3K Gold 65ish Silver then a large breakdown. I don't think I will hold through a Wave 4 correction.
Im thinking I would sell half and retain the rest trying to buy into a new bottom and get some free silver and gold, what timeline do you envision?
 

lightcycler

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I think we are seeing high level consolidation in Gold and Silver Wave 3 of 3 action just passed we are in Wave 4 of 3 with another run up coming. Maybe 3K Gold 65ish Silver then a large breakdown. I don't think I will hold through a Wave 4 correction.
I agree with your assesment. Wave 4's tend to correct to the bottom of the previous wave 4 of one smaller degree which would put us back to current levels after the run up. This will be seen as blasphamy by many :)