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GOLD IN FIFTH WAVE

d-lod

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http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/vronsky052513.html


Don Luskin, a monetary expert explains how China's FOREX reserves are connected to the rise in the price of gold. He argues that the outstanding stock of gold is relatively fixed—growing only about 3% per year—but that the demand for gold has jumped by orders of magnitude since China, India, and other emerging markets have enjoyed explosive growth and prosperity gains. In other words, the number of potential buyers of gold has risen much faster than the supply of gold, so naturally gold's price has increased. This is not a story about massive money printing and hyper-inflationary consequences, it is a story about a surge in the demand for the limited supply of gold…WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNABATED FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS.
Whom To Believe On Gold: Central Banks Or Bloomberg?

Bloomberg reported recently that Russia is now the world's biggest gold buyer, its central bank having added 570 tonnes (18.3 million troy ounces) over the past decade. At $1,650/ounce, that's $30.1 billion worth of gold.

Russia’s Central Bank Is Gorging On Gold:

Russia: The Sleeping Giant Of Gold Producing Countries
(How the bear is preparing for a global currency war) :[/QUOTE



India............than China..........and than Russia.................list is growing........Are they fools?



If it is a question of bottom, than the answer is 2008 and 2013 both have contracted by 45% and if its question of production cost than it is between 595---1250, and can you think of cost increased because of dealers? add 2+2 and come to number five, which could not be more than 150 more than last bottom of 1322................be wise and start collecting FRN, the bottom may be in or will be in soon.

Though great rumor circulating is that Dec will be time of bottom after a hitch up............DYOD:confused:
 

d-lod

dawn
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A = 1920 - 1525 = 395 roughly
B = 1525 - 1800 = 275 approx
C = 1800 - 1405 = 395 (a = C)
C = 1800 - 1168 = 632(1.6 of A)
 

Zed

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A = 1920 - 1525 = 395 roughly
B = 1525 - 1800 = 275 approx
C = 1800 - 1405 = 395 (a = C)
C = 1800 - 1168 = 632(1.6 of A)
1167 is a number I came to by another technical means..... I had been largely ignoring it until price action puts it in the frame! :vollkommenauf:
 

d-lod

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http://bullmarketthinking.com/comex-gold-inventories-collapse-by-largest-amount-on-record/


A stunning piece of information was brought to my attention yesterday. Amid all the mainstream talk of the end of the gold bull market (and the end of the gold mining industry), something has been discretely happening behind the scenes.
Over the last 90 days without any announcement, stocks of gold held at Comex warehouses plunged by the largest figure ever on record during a single quarter since eligible record keeping began in 2001 (roughly the beginning of the bull market). See chart below.

Total drainage of physical inventories reached nearly 2 million oz.’s of gold, which at today’s prices represent roughly $3,000,000,000 dollars.
According to chart sage Nick Laird, this data indicates that, “Eligible stocks which are owned in LBMA/Comex good delivery form are being drawn down—which means they are being removed from the warehouses. As to how and why they are [being] removed, that is a mystery. [Up until now], eligible stocks were on the continual increase throughout the bull market. Now that trend has changed.”
What is most interesting in reviewing this chart data, is seeing where the largest drops have occurred. The largest inventory drainage is being reported from JP Morgan Chase & Scotia Mocatta warehouses. See charts below.


JP Morgan Chase’s reported gold stockpile dropped by over 1.2 million oz.’s, or rather, a staggering $1.8 billion dollars worth of physical gold was removed from it’s vaults during the last 120 days.

Scotia Mocatta’s gold stockpile removals were nominal in size when compared to JPM’s, but registered in at over 650k oz’s of gold, or over $1 billion dollars worth of physical gold was removed from its vaults over the last 90 days.
In further conversation with Nick on the implications of this chart data, he commented that, “The owners have taken [their gold] offsite, and it’s no longer stored in Comex warehouses…Has the bull market ended? Are people taking their gold out of Comex storage [because] of lack of trust? It’s a mystery, [but] I think it’s more the majority of long term holders are taking their gold elsewhere…because they no longer want to store at Comex.”

Bottom line: While mainstream voices question whether or not gold is still in a bull market, smart money appears to be questioning something else. They appear to be asking themselves, “Do we want to continue storing our physical metal within the Comex system? How can we best whisk it away from fraud, theft, or bankruptcy (including our own)?”
The timing of this trend change is also quite shocking, as it’s happening during a time in which public sentiment towards the metals are at their worse levels in years.
The boy who cried wolf has certainly cried many times over the years with regard to the Comex, but if there was ever a time to be concerned of a major market event or default—now might be it.
 

d-lod

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Thread at Kitco. Missed the takeout of the supports double bottom in the low 1500's. Was looking for new highs. There's a handful of guys/women who have been around for a long time. The internet has grown tons of wannabes who are right/wrong. DYODD.
INDIAN'S DYODD is.................................

NEW DELHI(BullionStreet): India's efforts to keep it’s people away from gold seems to have going nowhere as the country consumed more gold in May than in April when prices crashed.

The world's largest gold consumer, India imported around 162 tonnes of gold in May, from April's 142.5 tonnes. For the two months, cost of gold buying hits over $15 billion.

Analysts said with May imports soaring even higher, Indian government is under pressure to look at more measures to rein them in as it is worried over the widening current account deficit, largely on account of the runaway rise in imports of the yellow metal.

The government is likely to take more steps to curb the rising imports of gold which may include a ban on sale of gold coins by banks.

However, the government is cautious about raising import duty further because it is concerned that this could encourage smuggling.

India had raised the duty on gold to restrict its import, the measure did not appear to yield any dividend as high imports of the yellow metal pushed the CAD to a record high of 6.7 per cent of gross domestic product in the October-December quarter of 2012-13.

Country's central bank, the RBI imposed curbs on gold import by banks and also imposed restrictions on them and non-banking finance companies to check loans against gold coins as well as units of gold ETFs.

In a statement, India's finance ministry said ways to curb gold imports was a major topic of discussion during a recent meeting of the Financial Stability Development Council.

Analysts said a good monsoon will boost demand as consumers took advantage of a slide in global prices which coincided with regional festivals when gold is bought for gifts.

The WGC forecasts India's imports to climb around 615 tonnes in the first half of 2013 - implying June imports would have to retreat to more normal levels of about 80 tonnes. It expects second half demand to match 2012's 485 tonnes - putting it on track for a record year.

mamamia.....................


http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/indias-gold-bill-for-aprilmay-hit-15-billion/4915
 

d-lod

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-cuts-2013-2014-gold-forecasts-2013-06-24



Goldman Sachs /quotes/zigman/188479/quotes/nls/gs GS +1.51% Monday cut its outlook on gold prices for this year and next, citing growing price risks from a brightening U.S. economic picture.

The bank now expects gold to end this year at $1,300 a troy ounce, down 9.4% on its previous forecast. It sees gold ending 2014 at $1,050 an ounce, down 17.3% on its earlier outlook.

"Medium term, we expect that gold prices will decline further given our U.S. economists' forecast for improving economic activity and a less accommodative monetary policy stance," the bank said. "Further, with quantitative easing tapering likely to start soon, perhaps even a bit sooner than previously anticipated, we are fast forwarding on our real rate path."
 

d-lod

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https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?shva=1#inbox/13f8bcd2fc56680b


Jim was very clear that he sees a price rise in gold coming by early July. This rise in prices could take us to new highs. How high? Jim sees $50,000 gold as a likely target should the paper manipulators lose control. This number sounds staggering to many, but you must remember that this market has been a beach balloon that has been pushed to depths never seen by man.
 

dpong

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Great chart. EW always has a great story... after the fact.

No offense, but I do not see how EW theory is anything but a crock.

If not, (and that is certainly possible) then wave C will certainly be a bitch.
 

d-lod

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haven't done one these in quite awhile.....maybe this whole set is just a giant wave 1 broken into 5 pieces?....that would suck though because per ew principles, "2 often retraces nearly all of 1" ... even more possible because this little number 2 did not 'mostly retrace its number 1', so could negate this set.....1050 support and i think the bull market would be over....merry christmas one and all

View attachment 13488
Look at the beauty of EW
 

d-lod

dawn
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Steep uptrend violated on this P and F chart. You can see where support comes in.
Thank you for sharing your analysis! When you first stated your numbers, they were hard to believe. We are getting closer now. I have been waiting patiently for those magic numbers, making only smaller purchases of collector items (slabbed ATBs, proof dragons and, most importantly, 25th Anniversary SAE sets).

I wonder what is you view on gold vs. silver performance in the future? I am kind of heavy in silver and thought I should be adding more gold this time. Yet, if silver outperforms gold in a shorter term, it may be better to buy silver now and swap it later. Silver dropped more than gold percentage-wise; it may rebound faster and stronger, too.
BEAUTY OF TA
 

REO 54

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Originally Posted by lhslancers3270
Steep uptrend violated on this P and F chart. You can see where support comes in.

Love to see Au-Myn post a chart to show this recent trend. :thumbs_up:
 

d-lod

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Great chart. EW always has a great story... after the fact.

No offense, but I do not see how EW theory is anything but a crock.

If not, (and that is certainly possible) then wave C will certainly be a bitch.

DPONG

The above chart was posted on 10-01-2011 06:28 PM #139 by
lhslancers3270


so EW still works though, length of C wave is a imaginary of each chartist based his experience. Thanks for your response.
 

d-lod

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http://www.sprottgroup.com/markets-at-a-glance/maag-article/?id=7497


In our September 2012 MAAG, titled, “Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left???”, we reconciled the annual change in demand for gold between 2000 and 2012 to be almost 2,300 tonnes. We went on to hypothesize that given the massive change in demand, the only suppliers large enough to fill the gap between supply and demand were the Central Banks. Now, our long search for the “smoking gun” to prove our hypothesis appears to have finally materialized.

Every month, the US Census Bureau releases the FT900 document, which outlines US International Trade Data. Going through this document, we were intrigued to see that in December 2012 the US exported over $4B worth of gold and imported around $1.5B worth of gold, representing a net export of $2.5B or almost 50 tonnes1. This surprising number led us to look at the previous releases of US International Trade Data which go as far back as 1991 – what we found was truly shocking. Not only has the US been consistently exporting large quantities of gold on a net basis, the amount of gold the US has been exporting is above and beyond what the US should be capable of exporting.

The gold market is fairly simple to understand from a supply and demand perspective. Since you cannot fabricate gold out of thin air, supply comes from new mine production, scrap gold recycling and investor disposition of bullion. Demand comes from many sources including investment demand, electronics, dental and industrial uses to name a few. There can be short-term aberrations between supply and demand where the market can be oversupplied, or demand can outstrip supply, however, over a longer period, supply should equal demand with the price acting as the equalizer. Under this assumption, the amount of gold that the US is exporting should equate to the amount of gold that the US is not consuming over a long enough time frame.



We used this framework to analyze supply and demand in the US going all the way back to 1991, which is as far back as the FT900 documents go. Over the span of 22 years, the total amount of gold that the US has exported – above and beyond its supply capability – is almost 4,500 tonnes! A truly stunning figure. (See Table 3).


Please brows through whole article, to get perspective clarity.
 

dpong

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d-lod

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I agree with your assesment. Wave 4's tend to correct to the bottom of the previous wave 4 of one smaller degree which would put us back to current levels after the run up. This will be seen as blasphamy by many :)
Four never penetrate wave 1, so this is not fourth.
 

d-lod

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OK so let me try to explain what I mean. If bull run for gold has to run estimated run of 12000 - 15000$ an ounce and if that would be achieved in major five waves, than they could be ONE, THREE and FIVE as impulsive waves and TWO and FOUR as corrective waves. LOOK at gold chart in line form on monthly chart, you will see only three significant top, since year 2000. I look at is tops of 1st, 3rd and 5th waves of MAJOR ONE. If that is so gold should be in for major correction. This being US presidential year everyone is aware of his first love......stock market..
I firmly believed in larger correction, but still overlooked it cause I had more belief in Alf.
 

d-lod

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Do you allow for the possibility that this correction is Major Wave 4 and that Major 3 was the 1920 top? That would imply that the next rally is it. That might of course take many years to complete a la the Major 5 in the broad market which lasted over 10 years.
lhslancers3270

Salute to your telescopic observation and the answer is YES, it could be possible, cause, approximately the last impulsive wave was 1.6 of first wave.

All figures are rounded and approx.

WAVE I - 0254 - 1032 = 778
WAVE II - 1032 - 0681 = 351 (34%)
WAVE III - 0681 - 1920 = 1239 (778 X 1.6 = 1244)
WAVE IV - 1920 - 1268 = 652 (34%)



As per above count WAVE III is 1.6% of WAVE I, that is ok, as wave three can never be shortest, but this theory fails as
the MAJOR IV wave count get nullified. Cause, WAVE II and WAVE IV, should be of equal%, secondly wave four doesn't enter wave I area, and silver has already penetrated $21 zone.
 

d-lod

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Speaking of older guru types I read on another board yesterday that Richard Russell had thrown in the towel on Gold. I cannot find any back up on this at this time however.
In bull market everyday we listen to newer high and in bear it is reverse. Russell has to look at fundamental. The only way gold can be in bear market if we are entering into 1930ish deflation.

I looked at correction from 730 and it doesn't match with 34% correction of 2008, so the five waves are not completed. There is more steam in this bull.
 

Anakin

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Speaking of older guru types I read on another board yesterday that Richard Russell had thrown in the towel on Gold. I cannot find any back up on this at this time however.
As of 6/18 Russell said gold was the only position he was willing to own.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...eat_Gold_Rip-Off,_China,_Russia_&_Silver.html

And, as of 6/25 Russell was predicting inflation as the policy choice.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldn...-_A_New_Monetary_System_&_End_Of_The_Fed.html
 

d-lod

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At the top

Only one can be at the top

MIGHT flowing from Western Banks to Eastern Bank....................


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/6/28_Maguire_-_Massive_580_Tons_Of_Gold_Purchased_In_Just_7_Days.html

Today whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that Eastern Central banks have purchased a staggering 580 tons of physical gold in just the last 7 trading days. This means Eastern Central banks just purchased a stunning 25% of the world’s annual gold mine production in just 7 trading days. This was the largest purchase of physical gold during any 7 trading day span in history. Maguire, who recently appeared in the CBC production “The Secret World of Gold,” also discussed the brutal takedown in the gold and silver markets as well as the disappearing inventories

Now I have contacts very close to the centers of influence in China, and I’m absolutely certain there is an escalation of this rapid exchange of dollars and euros for gold. These spot indexed long gold/short dollar transactions (by the Chinese) are (ultimately) closed by seeking and taking physical allocations of (gold).

“However, by manipulating the gold price lower through the foreign exchange interventions, they’ve succeeded in forcing 600 tons of ETF redemptions, COMEX capitulation, and drawn in an unprecedented level of fresh managed money short supply. This has now successfully allowed the bailout of the bullion banks to the point where they have been able to get net long (gold) futures. The two primary bullion banks that we all know about are net long.
 
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Anakin

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You didn't read the piece he wrote in his newsletter date June 26th.

Here's one for those that follow the Gold/Oil Ratio. Still room for Gold to move. DOWN.
Okay. Who's in your avatar?
 

d-lod

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Okay. Who's in your avatar?
That bad Anakin

Aavtaar is getting more attention than lhslancers's intelligent observations..........................

This is the second time he is going to reply this question and he is not going to like it.
 

prophet

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That bad Anakin

Aavtaar is getting more attention than lhslancers's intelligent observations..........................

This is the second time he is going to reply this question and he is not going to like it.
lhslancers's avatars are legendary..........
 

d-lod

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Comex revealed

http://therealasset.co.uk/comex-2-paper-gold/

Since the gold price crash in April there has been wide debate about how the gold market works. Analysts have contrasted paper gold versus physical gold, urging that the different parts of the gold markets offer very different services to investors. Conspiracy theories have also abounded.

In our previous analysis we looked at the different parts of the gold market and found that the COMEX was still the beating heart of gold price discovery. COMEX still had greater volumes and numbers of bids and offers setting the gold price than the largest ETFs and physical suppliers.

When the gold price tumbled in April, it was the huge orders that had appeared on COMEX that were to blame. Hundreds of tonnes of gold were sold in seconds, knocking prices down dramatically.

For some gold commentators the way the gold price is set on COMEX distorts the gold market, meaning the gold price is often detached from actual gold bullion demand. These analysts argue that since it is mainly paper traded at COMEX and because small percentages of this paper gold can ever be delivered in physical form, COMEX is the flawed central part of setting gold prices.
Gold bullion being drained from COMEX

The recent decrease in inventories, particularly from the JPMorgan warehouse, has attracted much scrutiny of late. Discussion of COMEX settling large gold contracts with cash, rather than gold, i.e. defaulting, continue to animate many a gold market discussion.

Notable investors, such as Eric Sprott, believe the odds of cash settlement occurring in the futures markets are ‘about 100%’.

In light of this we take a look at the health of COMEX and ask if it is close to breaking point.

Open Interest on COMEX reached a peak at the end of 2010 at 650,000. It has never reached similar levels since and at the time of writing many appear concerned that the overall open interest is continuing to fall.

Is this the reason, they have lowered the gold price target for 2013 and 2014, so gold from clients reaches FORT KNOX? They were duped earlier too in 2008 by similar forcast, HISTORY REPEATS.


The recent decrease in inventories, particularly from the JPMorgan warehouse, has attracted much scrutiny of late. Discussion of COMEX settling large gold contracts with cash, rather than gold, i.e. defaulting, continue to animate many a gold market discussion.
 

Thecrensh

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Re: Comex revealed

History is filled with examples of people, organizations, entities, empires over-extending themselves out of greed and hubris (much to their own detriment). Alexander, Napolean, Hitler, The British Empire, many of today's banks, the average American household.

If COMEX defaults, it serves them right for being greedy IMHO.
http://therealasset.co.uk/comex-2-paper-gold/




Is this the reason, they have lowered the gold price target for 2013 and 2014, so gold from clients reaches FORT KNOX? They were duped earlier too in 2008 by similar forcast, HISTORY REPEATS.


The recent decrease in inventories, particularly from the JPMorgan warehouse, has attracted much scrutiny of late. Discussion of COMEX settling large gold contracts with cash, rather than gold, i.e. defaulting, continue to animate many a gold market discussion.
 

d-lod

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Gold ABC counts are as follow

Field uses LBMA closing price, so there may be some small deceferencies in %

A= 1920 - 1522 = 398 i.e. 20% decline from the top of 1920
B= 1522 - 1795 = 273
C= 1795 - 1180 = 615 i.e 34% decline from top of 1795 (C = A x 1.6)


The only challenge is lack of positive divergence.
 

d-lod

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Gold ABC counts are as follow

Field uses LBMA closing price, so there may be some small deceferencies in %

A= 1920 - 1522 = 398 i.e. 20% decline from the top of 1920
B= 1522 - 1795 = 273
C= 1795 - 1180 = 615 i.e 34% decline from top of 1795 (C = A x 1.6)


The only challenge is lack of positive divergence.

The lack of positive divergence may tilt the above wave count a failure and Ishlancer be happy with his analysis.
The above count may have given rise to first minute wave from 1180.20 to 1267.43 of $87.23.


Till this count fail, the above count are used to further analyse current trend. The first minute wave will retrace at fibo correction of
1246.87,.......................1234.11......................1223.83..............1214.43..............

breaking of it will generate continuation of mega correction.
 

jelly

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Jelly

You predicted this very early in JUNE 2011
Yes, and the strange thing is I didn't think it would actually get there. Now that we are here at these levels, I am buying. I think we could go down to $1,000, but don't really care. $1200 gold is as much of a bargain to me as $1100 gold and $1000 gold. So as long as we stay down here I'll be buying. Every paycheck I'll put a little toward the metals. Though right now I'm mainly watching the mining stocks. I think they are the best opportunity if you know how to pick them.

D-lod, I've been continually watching your threads, even though I rarely post in them. I always look for your opinion on things. Keep up the good work! I thoroughly enjoy reading it. :thumbs_up:
 

d-lod

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The lack of positive divergence may tilt the above wave count a failure and Ishlancer be happy with his analysis.
The above count may have given rise to first minute wave from 1180.20 to 1267.43 of $87.23.


Till this count fail, the above count are used to further analyse current trend. The first minute wave will retrace at fibo correction of
1246.87,.......................1234.11......................1223.83..............1214.43..............

breaking of it will generate continuation of mega correction.
1214$ level was broken to arrive at 1208.12$, an exact fibo of 67.6% of the upleg fRom 1180 - 1267.

If we calculate third minute wave from above price range, the gold price can be anything from 1347.68 / 1434.91 and above.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Dan Norcini is bearish for now

I have noted an overhead chart resistance zone which basically extends from last week's high at $1267 - $1269. Bears will be complacent unless this region is taken out with strong volume, otherwise they are going to look to sell into this rally. If the mining shares were strong, that would make them second guess so we will have to see how that sector trades during Tuesday's session.
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.in/

The key for the market right now is that it did drop back down into the very top of that region but attracted more buying that selling. That is a positive. We have moved up some $40 since that brief foray into the HIGH VOLUME REGION. The trend is down however so we can expect the rally to be sold but if the bulls can surprise and take price through the anticipated selling that is going to surface, bears will run and this market could lift towards $1285 - $1290.

It does appear that once again we have that gold backwardation talk emerging. Keep in mind that all those proponents of that theory cost their devotees a tremendous amount of money the last time they were proclaiming a bottom based on that occurrence.

I maintain that until the gold futures market shows a true backwardation structure on the board, all this is just talk that is interesting but as far as a trader goes, meaningless. Price action is what confirms theories. If it does, fine. If it does not, that is also fine. Watch for resistance levels and support levels and make your trading decisions on that and that alone.