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GOLD IN THIRD WAVE

lightcycler

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The one thing that always trips me up is looking for 5 wave C's. I look at that and my mind just goes into a tailspin. I think I need to find more info on corrections and try to bolster my knowledge they are the most difficult part of EW for sure. An implulsive wave is usually pretty clear cut. I am uneasy about where we sit today. Nothing is making total sense to me.
 
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scofield

true, your observation are correct, but even in correction mode the upswing has very high velocity, am I right?

No one is fool and atleast not the prudent investor, used to make money smartly. They are your
backup-support, and not the Govt.
yes bear market rallies are fast

i still have cash waiting for lower low after this big rally to 1500

i dont know why stocks are up but i wouldnt say the fed is my friend. i just see more upside right now but there will be a time when the risk will be too high.
 

d-lod

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d-lod my count is the same as yours short term, but we are off kilter long term. I have us in the middle of minute 1 (assuming we are done with this correction and said goodbye to 1180), of minor three of intermediate five of primary three. Terminology is key here as it is hard to compare notes if we are not speaking the same language, so feel free to correct me where you see appropriate to. Also it seems to me that counting Elliot waves in the shorter term is complicated by not having an accurate longer term count. Therefore I would like to see if we can find common ground and unify a count. The words get very complicated without a picture, so I will illustrate with a couple of charts. The first is a longer term picture with the Price of Gold charted adjusted for the CPI. Don't let the 'distortion' bother you as it doesn't change the count.

View attachment 47674
your counts states cycle, above it is super cycle and grand super cycle to complete wave counts.

savvydon, year 2000 was end of grand super cycle {(II)}, SO NOW WE ARE IN {(III)}. And it is further subdivided into three super-cycle. follow the following link for clearing the vision and thanks as always for your charts.


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
 

savvydon

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your counts states cycle, above it is super cycle and grand super cycle to complete wave counts.

savvydon, year 2000 was end of grand super cycle {(II)}, SO NOW WE ARE IN {(III)}. And it is further subdivided into three super-cycle. follow the following link for clearing the vision and thanks as always for your charts.


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
Yes, I can see where my larger waves would be labeled cycles (one step larger than primary waves), but I'm not convinced that they are describing super cycles, and certainly not grand super cycles. My (admittedly limited) understanding of EW nomenclature is that grand super cycles span over hundreds of years. My expectation is that super cycles would be generational in length and that cycles are measured in years to decades. I don't have much to back this up in the 'grand' scheme of things, but it seems to make some rudimentary sense. It would be nice to hash this out. My feeling is that if some consensus can be created about the labeling and timing of the larger waves, then at least when we debate the smaller, more current, and perhaps more relevant ones and at least be in the same ball park. Since it seems clear that we entered a bull market in gold around the turn of the century that represents a clear sign post for the labeling of the appropriate Elliot wave. If that is a valid reference point and we can accurately label it, then we can work our way down from there to the present action more accurately. At least that would be my hope. :cheerful:
 
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hey d-lod, I'm long gold stocks right here but I'll be selling once price is close to the 20 month moving averages.

If price can get above the 20-month and stay there long enough for the 10-month ema to cross over in a bullish manner, then there is a chance of a real bull market and I will buy back on any backtest of the 10-month. otherwise, I will just sit on the sidelines until such a thing happens or if price goes down to ridiculous levels.

Have you read Jeff Kern of SKI gold stocks? He's got a really unique system that I don't know how he came up with but his observations are spot on. Here is the interesting bit, if you don't let the jargon about his system bother you.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/kern102813.html
Analysts’ definitions on bull markets vary, but usually are based simply upon a certain percentage rise from a low (e.g., a 20% rise from low defines “bull market”). SKI defines bull markets as initiating from a 92-96 index buy signal that is On the Path of Trades. For example, the rise from the summer of 2007 into October 2007 and March 2008 was NOT part of a bull market: It was a corrective rise, did not begin with a 92-96 index buy signal, and after SKI exited on the day of the high in gold on 3/18/2008, was followed by the crash. Even though that crash yielded a multi-year Life Run low later that year, the subsequent rises were via 35-39 index buy signals and the Path of Trades wasn’t on a true bull market 92-96 index buy signal. The market did generate some 92-96 index buy signals during 2009-2011, but they were either Off the Path of Trades or were XXed Out (i.e., they followed Double sell signals between the 35-39 index and the 92-96 index).
There have only been five SKI bull markets since 1974 (1979, 1982, 1993, 2001, and 2005). Since it’s been 7 years since the last one, the time IS historically “ripe” for another bull market that yields a 100-500% rise in the “conservative” USERX mutual fund over a year or two. If the 92-96 index does generate a bull market buy signal (as is expected) and then fails (unknown), another long-term decline should follow.
anyway you already know how I will trade on the monthly basis and that's my only timeframe :D
I'm also seeing the weekly 10 and 20 period MAs are bullish for metals and about to become bullish for gold stocks. that's why I"m taking a trade but respect the monthly resistance though...

p.s. I predict nasdaq-100 NDX will reach the 2000 highs before this stock bull is over... it just makes sense that this is the next target
 

d-lod

dawn
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Yes, I can see where my larger waves would be labeled cycles (one step larger than primary waves), but I'm not convinced that they are describing super cycles, and certainly not grand super cycles. My (admittedly limited) understanding of EW nomenclature is that grand super cycles span over hundreds of years. My expectation is that super cycles would be generational in length and that cycles are measured in years to decades. I don't have much to back this up in the 'grand' scheme of things, but it seems to make some rudimentary sense. It would be nice to hash this out. My feeling is that if some consensus can be created about the labeling and timing of the larger waves, then at least when we debate the smaller, more current, and perhaps more relevant ones and at least be in the same ball park. Since it seems clear that we entered a bull market in gold around the turn of the century that represents a clear sign post for the labeling of the appropriate Elliot wave. If that is a valid reference point and we can accurately label it, then we can work our way down from there to the present action more accurately. At least that would be my hope. :cheerful:

Savvydon

you may be right and may not be. But looking at population burst and inflation, where no country has restriction of printing money,you should count yourself to be in grand supercycle.
 

d-lod

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hey d-lod, I'm long gold stocks right here but I'll be selling once price is close to the 20 month moving averages.

If price can get above the 20-month and stay there long enough for the 10-month ema to cross over in a bullish manner, then there is a chance of a real bull market and I will buy back on any backtest of the 10-month. otherwise, I will just sit on the sidelines until such a thing happens or if price goes down to ridiculous levels.

Have you read Jeff Kern of SKI gold stocks? He's got a really unique system that I don't know how he came up with but his observations are spot on. Here is the interesting bit, if you don't let the jargon about his system bother you.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/kern/kern102813.html




anyway you already know how I will trade on the monthly basis and that's my only timeframe :D
I'm also seeing the weekly 10 and 20 period MAs are bullish for metals and about to become bullish for gold stocks. that's why I"m taking a trade but respect the monthly resistance though...

p.s. I predict nasdaq-100 NDX will reach the 2000 highs before this stock bull is over... it just makes sense that this is the next target

scofield
you and him both are correct in terms of developing technical trade. EW, that is why is, pioneer in looking after corrections. The movement of wave B / b in corrective phase of ABC / abc is not considered bull-market, and yet it is successfully traded by bulls.
EW gives you perspective / direction and immediate length of up /down swing within certain limit.

The fifth wave currently is giving extended price, and that could tell you something about bull / bear phase.
 
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i cant say i understand which way is the 5th wave u refer to. it doesnt matter though... im waiting for the MAs to do the work
 

d-lod

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TA IS NOW NOT REFLECTING PEOPLE PSYCHE BUT MANIPULATORS SKILL..........................


STILL THIS IS THE ONLY TOOL THAT MAY BE HELPFUL.

a little bit of +ve divergence on weekly
 
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i think once gold breaks below the June low, which HUI already did, 1000 is probably where it's going next. manipulation or not, the long term trend is still down. I was trying to trade a corrective rally but that faded sooner than I expected...
 

savvydon

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i think once gold breaks below the June low, which HUI already did, 1000 is probably where it's going next. manipulation or not, the long term trend is still down. I was trying to trade a corrective rally but that faded sooner than I expected...
I agree that the price action in the metals sector feels incredibly bearish, led by the miners, then silver, and gold showing the most (not very much) inertia to the downside. If I had the time and inclination I would give strong consideration to trading the price action down (shorting) with the caveat that I would keep tight stops and hang onto my physical. Don't know when but things are bound to turn around at some point leaving the smell of burnt shorts lingering.
 

lightcycler

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Well I for one am now long the gold market. We will see if its a fake out but I don't think so this time. We broke out of the down trend down of Wave C. Just looks very very bullish to me. Any thoughts from the others?
 

d-lod

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http://news.goldseek.com/GoldForecaster/1386882000.php

It has to be either CHINA or INDIA...........................to keep price floating..........


A:-
Looking at the global market, we see that the blocking of gold imports has taken an annual demand –take this from last August, when the regulations were instituted—of around 25% of global demand to around 2.5% of that demand. It’s no wonder that the gold price has been open to bear raids and heavy selling out of the U.S.
B:-
US SALES OF GOLD

On the supply side, we’ve seen an extra ~1,200+ tonnes of gold added to supply through U.S. selling. The selling has come from gold ETFs, from the major banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase and their clients. A major part of this came in April 2013 when these banks, which were supported by sellers from U.S. gold ETFs, rocked the market with major sales of physical gold in a two-week period, knocking down the price by $200.
C:-
But we see China and it’s clear that their demand for the last year could be above 2,000 tonnes and maybe as much as the year’s newly-mined gold supply of 2,800+ tonnes. China’s demand shows no sign of slowing as their government focuses on creating internal wealth for its citizens. In the process, their middle classes are rapidly expanding and capable of reaching around 500 million people. This class favors gold not simply because there are no other alternatives, but also because they recognize that gold retains its value in bad times while other assets lose theirs.
 

lightcycler

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Well I for one am now long the gold market. We will see if its a fake out but I don't think so this time. We broke out of the down trend down of Wave C. Just looks very very bullish to me. Any thoughts from the others?

Well glad I didn't stay long. I closed out my paper long on Wednesday. Of course I keep stacking da physical. Well we will see what it looks like at the end of next week.
 

Ebie

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As long as Germany cant get its 300 tons from the US, it looks bullish.
Is the German CB selling physical to China?
 

jelly

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Gold has positive divergence on the Weekly charts. I'd be interested in D-lod's analysis on the current market standing.
Sure looks like a bottom to me.
 

d-lod

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TA IS NOW NOT REFLECTING PEOPLE PSYCHE BUT MANIPULATORS SKILL..........................


STILL THIS IS THE ONLY TOOL THAT MAY BE HELPFUL.

a little bit of +ve divergence on weekly
The positive divergence is obvious, so its time of bottom, for sure and finally we bulls should buckle our seat for upward journey.
 

savvydon

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It didn't go below previous bottom of 1180, and this is what I meant with positive divergence since two years.
So for the purpose of trying to come up with a decent EW count, do you consider that the december low never broke through the June low?
 

d-lod

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So for the purpose of trying to come up with a decent EW count, do you consider that the december low never broke through the June low?
The earlier bottom price was 1180.200 while this one was 1182.350, and yet MACD, RSI, MOMENTUM have higher value.

And yet monthly look so odd, as if it is not yet complete.
 

d-lod

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The earlier bottom price was 1180.200 while this one was 1182.350, and yet MACD, RSI, MOMENTUM have higher value.

And yet monthly look so odd, as if it is not yet complete.
Gold on monthly, if crosses 1433, than would be forming double as, when Britain had sold its gold
 

Ebie

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The earlier bottom price was 1180.200 while this one was 1182.350, and yet MACD, RSI, MOMENTUM have higher value.

And yet monthly look so odd, as if it is not yet complete.
What is not complete ? (in plain English please).
 

d-lod

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headlines from 1999
"Bank of England sells 400 tonnes of gold in auctions at avg price of $278 per ounce"
"Swiss national bank sells 2000 tonnes of gold and buys income producing assets"
"Dutch banks sell 100 tonnes of gold"
"France sells 350 tonnes of gold to invest in education"

headlines from 2010,2011
"Indian central bank buys half of IMF gold offered at $1050 per ounce"
"Central banks are net buyers of gold for first time in 30years"
"German bundesbank refuses to sell its gold or use it as collateral"
"China is buying gold on a regular basis"

.....i'm just an old speculator......
"USA HAS NO GOLD WHAT SO EVER OF HIS OWN AND HAS SOLD GOLD FROM GERMANY TOO."
1999 HAD DOUBLE BOTTOM, BECAUSE OF BRITAIN, 2014 WILL HAVE SECOND DOUBLE BOTTOM, BECAUSE OF USA..........alleys in self and global destruction
 

d-lod

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What is not complete ? (in plain English please).
Acquirer of gold doesn't have filled their booty.

sorry, you asked in plain English. It suggest that lowering the price to 1180ish twice they have not yet got enough physical gold to satisfy their need.
 

savvydon

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Here is an update of the Elliot wave count of the price of gold in USD that I have been working on. After a long winter dancing on summer's bottom we seem to be pulling up and out nicely. IF we can call June the bottom then this winter's action appears to be a near 100% retracement/ABC correction of wave 2 from wave one. It follows that we would now be in minor 1 of intermediate 3 of primary 5 of cycle III. This scenario would be strengthened by a move above 1360 and then further reinforced by a move through 1420. If the price retreats below 1180 then the count is wrong and will have to be retooled.

screenshot_71.jpg


screenshot_40.jpg
 

d-lod

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Failure rate of double bottom and pattern has to be observed, cause, though positive divergence is found but buying above certain level should be preferred by new comers.
 

silverblood

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Apologies, d-lod. You're a bit more cryptic there than usual. I don't mean to offend, but could you possibly rephrase that?
 

d-lod

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Apologies, d-lod. You're a bit more cryptic there than usual. I don't mean to offend, but could you possibly rephrase that?
My apologies silverblood

Though, I do believe that gold has now bullish support at 1180, marked by positive divergence on weekly chart ( MACD ), but still the manipulators, who are trying to own global gold, are not yet satisfied.

And the best way is to lead new investor, is by building a pattern and then breaking it like triple bottom at 1525. Nobody guessed that there is more down side. We all are having burning coals in our pocket.

Those who are new to investment, do not own gold from 254 $ price. I started investment, at 254$, so for me it is ok, if I purchased few ounces at 1625, but new comers may get burnt if the gold moves down from here to 1050 level.
 

Piggybank

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:afraid:

"Hedge funds and other speculators expanded bets on higher prices for a fourth week in New York futures and are now the most bullish since December 2012, government data show. While gold is off to its best start in six years after topping $1,350 an ounce, Goldman's Jeffrey Currie says chances are increasing that prices will slump to $1,000 for the first time since 2009. "

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-most-bullish-since-2012-200000638.html

Sounds like its going to be a massacre this year.
 

Ahillock

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:afraid:

"Hedge funds and other speculators expanded bets on higher prices for a fourth week in New York futures and are now the most bullish since December 2012, government data show. While gold is off to its best start in six years after topping $1,350 an ounce, Goldman's Jeffrey Currie says chances are increasing that prices will slump to $1,000 for the first time since 2009. "

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-most-bullish-since-2012-200000638.html

Sounds like its going to be a massacre this year.
Just trying to fool the goyim into buying more paper wealth. Stocks. Bonds. Fiat. Nothing new here.
 

southfork

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:afraid:

"Hedge funds and other speculators expanded bets on higher prices for a fourth week in New York futures and are now the most bullish since December 2012, government data show. While gold is off to its best start in six years after topping $1,350 an ounce, Goldman's Jeffrey Currie says chances are increasing that prices will slump to $1,000 for the first time since 2009. "

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-most-bullish-since-2012-200000638.html

Sounds like its going to be a massacre this year.
Crap and I went and bought a tad over an ounce this weekend, gona run out and sell it today.