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GOLD IN THIRD WAVE

lightcycler

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"Look out for next week's fall. " d-lod

Maybe in time for next weeks Silver Summit in Spokane which I will be attending.Could be in time for some good shopping no/yes? :D
I'm holding tight. Ready to speak to mr tulving but guessing late next week or the following week.
 

d-lod

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I'm holding tight. Ready to speak to mr tulving but guessing late next week or the following week.
The fall will definitely come, if it will fail to come than I will let you know. One of the factor of its failure could be silver acheiving close of 36 $. That may decide the failure of a fall.
 

lightcycler

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The fall will definitely come, if it will fail to come than I will let you know. One of the factor of its failure could be silver acheiving close of 36 $. That may decide the failure of a fall.
Yes the charts look like one more down leg is needed to complete but I would not be shocked if it did fail. The stock indexes are at a cross roads as well. Monday or Tuesday should set the tone I'm thinking.
 

d-lod

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Yes the charts look like one more down leg is needed to complete but I would not be shocked if it did fail. The stock indexes are at a cross roads as well. Monday or Tuesday should set the tone I'm thinking.
8 Hourly chart is giving bullish sign in the form of ascending triangle.

Apart from ew that is giving rise of this wave B1 to 1750, the fibo level is suggesting 1725 ish as this wave's next level.
 

lightcycler

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8 Hourly chart is giving bullish sign in the form of ascending triangle.

Apart from ew that is giving rise of this wave B1 to 1750, the fibo level is suggesting 1725 ish as this wave's next level.
Appears to be a breakout below the bottom boundry of that triangle.

"The ascending triangle is a mediocre performer despite its reputation as a reliable chart pattern. In fact, the ascending triangle performs best when the breakout is downward, especially in a bear market."

Watching closely but thats my take at the moment.
 

d-lod

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Gold and Silver are in trading ranges here. It appears as if both have bottomed 26 and 1535. I would not be surprised if Gold made new highs over the next 6 months and Silver did not. At any rate I think the big correction in Gold lays ahead after a monster rally.


lhslancers3270

You may be right, because the big players play, based on current open position. Last time when gold went to 1535, there were more longs than short to the tune of 60,00,000 0z, so they made them leave their paper position by taking gold to 1535.
 

REO 54

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Gold Advances as Spain Rating Cut by Moody’s Spurs Demand for Haven Assets......


Gold gained for the first time in three days after Moody’s Investors Service cut Spain’s credit rating, spurring demand for the metal as a haven.

Bullion for immediate delivery added 0.4 percent to $1,664.20 an ounce at 9:25 a.m. in Singapore, after dropping 0.4 percent to $1,651.73. December-delivery gold climbed for the first time in three days, gaining as much as 0.9 percent to $1,666.90 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

“The fundamentals that support gold’s status as a safe haven have not changed,” Julian Jessop, chief global economist at Capital Economics Ltd., wrote in a report. “Gold’s value does not depend on the creditworthiness of any government or financial institution. We continue to expect the price of gold to top $2,000 as sovereign-debt worries continue to build.”

Moody’s yesterday cut Spain’s rating for a third time since June 2010 as Europe’s debt crisis weighs on the country’s growth prospects. Standard & Poor’s downgraded it on Oct. 14 and Fitch Ratings cut its ranking on Oct. 7. Gold has fallen 10 percent in the past two months as the dollar climbed 4 percent against a six-currency basket on concerns that Europe’s crisis may worsen.

“The more general return of confidence in the dollar has reduced demand for gold as a hedge against a collapse in the U.S. currency,” Jessop wrote yesterday. “But we do not expect this to hold back gold much longer. Confidence in the dollar relative to gold could also be undermined again by the potential fall-out from fresh euro-zone shocks on the U.S. economy and banks.”

Cash silver dropped as much as 0.7 percent to $31.8225 an ounce, before trading little changed at $32.0575. Spot platinum gained 1.2 percent to $1,552.50 an ounce and palladium rose 0.4 percent to $625.75 an ounce.

To contact the reporter for this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net
 

d-lod

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Tomorrow is the most auspicious day for Indians to buy gold.
It comes every three years or so. Last time it was in 2007 and next will be in 2014.
 

REO 54

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Sheesh! What a see-saw.

Gold Drops for a Third Day as Report on European Rescue Fund Curbs Demand.....

Gold may fall for a third day in New York as reports that France and Germany are nearing an accord to boost the size of Europe’s rescue fund curbs demand for the metal as a protection of wealth.

The euro gained against the dollar as the Guardian newspaper reported the two nations support increasing the size of the 440 billion-euro ($607 billion) European Financial Stability Facility to 2 trillion euros ahead of a summit this weekend. European equities advanced.

“The euro is up on the back of that, and it could be responsible for this move,” Afshin Nabavi, a senior vice president at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva, said today by phone, referring to the rescue-fund report. Still, “I don’t think that safe-haven demand is gone,” and physical purchases will support prices, he said.

Gold for December delivery fell 0.1 percent to $1,650.50 an ounce by 7:54 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Immediate-delivery gold was 0.5 percent lower at $1,649.60 in London.

Bullion is in the 11th year of a bull market and futures reached a record $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 6 as investors sought to diversify away from equities and some currencies. The metal is up 16 percent this year.

EU Meeting
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told lawmakers in Berlin that the firepower of the European Financial Stability Facility may be increased to a maximum of 1 trillion euros through an insurance model, Financial Times Deutschland reported, without saying where it obtained the information.

Germany and France also support recapitalization of European banks, the Guardian reported. A spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel declined to comment. Merkel said yesterday the European Union summit will mark an important step, though not the final one, in solving the region’s debt crisis.

Spain’s credit rating was cut yesterday for the third time in 13 months by Moody’s Investors Service as the crisis threatens to engulf the nation, which has the highest jobless rate in the 27-nation EU.

“The fundamentals that support gold’s status as a safe haven have not changed,” Julian Jessop, chief global economist at Capital Economics Ltd., wrote in a report. “Gold’s value does not depend on the creditworthiness of any government or financial institution. We continue to expect the price of gold to top $2,000 as sovereign-debt worries continue to build.”

Silver for December delivery fell 0.2 percent to $31.775 an ounce. Palladium for December delivery was down 0.2 percent at $618.50 an ounce. Platinum for January delivery declined 0.6 percent to $1,530.90 an ounce.

To contact the reporters for this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net; Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net
 

d-lod

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REO 54

As far as I am concerned.
Fundamental gives base,
Technical gives time of entry and exit
News reaches us when its already too late, the prices are indications of news taken in consideration before its leaked out.
So me, pay attention to fundamental that 60 year financial cycle is in its winter, natural resources will appreciate, and gold / silver are best for ROI.
 

REO 54

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REO 54

As far as I am concerned.
Fundamental gives base,
Technical gives time of entry and exit
News reaches us when its already too late, the prices are indications of news taken in consideration before its leaked out.
So me, pay attention to fundamental that 60 year financial cycle is in its winter, natural resources will appreciate, and gold / silver are best for ROI.
Copy that.Thanks d-lod.
 

GOLD DUCK

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REO 54

As far as I am concerned.
Fundamental gives base,
Technical gives time of entry and exit
News reaches us when its already too late, the prices are indications of news taken in consideration before its leaked out.
So me, pay attention to fundamental that 60 year financial cycle is in its winter, natural resources will appreciate, and gold / silver are best for ROI.
QWAK,At this point it is SOoooooooooo obvious it almost hurts to look at what is happening! :hahaha::ahhhhh::afraid:

This last corection in GOLD and SILVER and the lack of a signifigent bounce :hahaha::stupido2: indicates to me that the BANKERS naked shorts that could be covered are or have been covered :yes: and the DOMINOS will start falling in Europe any day:yes: with the CONTAGON taking down the US DOLLAR and the MEGA BANKS:evil: here who caused the economic catastrophy that we are all now facing. :alberteinstein::signs14:

If your most basic PREPS of FOOD and shelter and protection are at levels you feel are prudent:36_1_11: THEN ware else is there for your $$$ other than real GOLD and SILVER? :stupido2::questionmark:

It is the ULTIMIT :hahaha: NO BRAINER!:yes:

Just hold on tight :yes: we are ALL in for a ride like no one alive has ever seen or perhaps even IMAGINED!:stupido2::23_30_104: As the economic world goes to HELL :signs14: We are going to economic HEAVEN :hahaha::angel: with GOLD pavment stones for a NEW SUBDIVISION :yes: BRICK LAYERS who are HAPPY doing there JOBS! :yes::23_30_104::angel:

the DUCK :15_1_70v:
 

d-lod

dawn
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GOLD DUCK

I differ here, corrections are part of advancement. If we want natural resources to advance than it will correct.
As I mentioned earlier, Alf Field feels it is third wave and I call it wave 3 of first wave, so the wave have lot of unfolding ahead.
The only thing expected now from gold and silver is swifter and larger waves. First wave took 8 years to complete from 2000- 2008 (251-1032) while next wave (680 - 1912) took only three years to complete.

So correction will come, we will able to get more ROI.
 

lightcycler

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GOLD DUCK

I differ here, corrections are part of advancement. If we want natural resources to advance than it will correct.
As I mentioned earlier, Alf Field feels it is third wave and I call it wave 3 of first wave, so the wave have lot of unfolding ahead.
The only thing expected now from gold and silver is swifter and larger waves. First wave took 8 years to complete from 2000- 2008 (251-1032) while next wave (680 - 1912) took only three years to complete.

So correction will come, we will able to get more ROI.
YES YES and Heck YES!!!! Markets must correct and do so in an orderly fashion. To those without the tools it appears to be disorderly. Its not!!!!
 

d-lod

dawn
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YES YES and Heck YES!!!! Markets must correct and do so in an orderly fashion. To those without the tools it appears to be disorderly. Its not!!!!

Thanks lightcycler

for getting market perspective in right order, what your and others opinion of market bottom?
 

d-lod

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Everything I see points to a retest of lows occuring. I have my F150 running. Soon will load it with PM's
lightcycler

As you must be aware that TA is all about timing, silver is a ripen fruit for side to upleg after a fast down leg, but gold is a different story. It has to finish its gestation period of 7-9 months, we are in second month with gold.
 

d-lod

dawn
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Gold broke apex of triangle on down side............

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/oct242011.html



AND ABORTING THE BEARISH IMPLICATIONS OF THE PENNANT, by dropping back modestly instead of plunging. It arrived back in our target zone near $1600 on Thursday and then reversed quite sharply to the upside on Friday. While nothing is guaranteed in this business and there is still a reduced chance of its being a Pennant with an amended lower boundary, this action implies that a positive QE-rich resolution of sorts of the acute problems in Europe is imminent, despite the severe and intractable problems there.

The CMT eventually post what this thread give advance notice of.
 

d-lod

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http://www.kitco.com/ind/McWhinnie/nov072011.html

Germany has rejected proposals by France, Britain, and the US to have German gold reserves used as collateral for the Eurozone bailout fund. Germany has not forgotten what hyper-inflation feels like, nor the need for precious metals as a safe-haven. According to the World Gold Council, Germany has 3,401 tonnes of gold, which accounts for nearly 75% of its reserves. Germany Economy Minister Philipp Roesler said, “German gold reserves must remain untouchable.” There was speculation over the weekend at the G20 summit that German gold may be sold in order to boost the European bailout fund.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Levenstein/nov072011.html

There are some positive signs developing in the price of gold, mainly good support above $1700 as well as $1750. Also, the price of gold has pushed through the 50 day MA. I expect prices to breach $1800 an ounce shortly.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/nov072011.html


Gold Market Update


By Clive Maund Printer Friendly Version Bookmark and Share
Nov 7 2011 11:56AM


www.clivemaund.com

originally published November 6th, 2010

Gold did exactly as predicted in the update last weekend - it dropped back briefly to touch the bottom of our short-term reaction target range at $1680 before rebounding, as we can see on the 4-month chart below, and we were buyers around $1705 and below. The rebound on Tuesday left behind a clear bull hammer on the chart, which is positive. After the rebound gold advanced to the next resistance level shown, which may force another reaction this coming week, especially as Commercial short positions, which are still overall bullish, rose significantly last week - any such reaction should again be bought, although with downside volume now lighter than upside volume and silver now looking set for another upleg, there may be no reaction at all. The Prime Minister of Greece Mr Papandreou got "taken behind the woodshed " by Mr Sarkozy and Mrs Merkel for threatening to tip over the apple cart and wreck their plans with his referendum brainwave, but as this is a family website, we won't repeat here what they said to him, but it served to put him back on side.

The chart looks positive here and like gold is shaping up to challenge its highs again - and why shouldn't it? - world leaders are cornered and only have one card left to play in the intractable global debt crisis fiasco, which is to continue to procrastinate with full on Quantitative Easing (QE) - just stop and think about this term for a minute - what kind of idiots do they take most people for that they can't see past patronizing language like this? - if you or I did this with a machine in our backyard we'd be thrown in jail for counterfeiting, but now that they are unencumbered by the inconvenience of a gold standard they can do this in broad daylight and get away with it.

The Commercial short and Large Spec long positions rose significantly last week, and while this may presage a short-term reaction, overall the COT structure remains positive for gold.

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Kirtley_Sam/nov072011.html


During the last month, stocks and most other risk assets have rallied significantly. Fears over Europe have subsided somewhat and the many parts of the market indicated a brighter future ahead. Although there are many positive signs, we think there are some seriously negative signs coming from the European sovereign debt market.

These troubling signs are in Italy and in Spain and should not go unnoticed and are much more significant that Greece. For example the estimated cost to Germany of bailing out Greece, Ireland and Portugal entirely in the wake of the default of those countries would be a little over EUR1,000 per person, in a single hit. Italy is a totally different situation, their mountains of debt dwarf that of the smaller nations.

Since the end of September Italian and Spanish yields have been moving higher, despite the ECB bond buying programme in an attempt to keep a lid on interest rates. This week we saw the ECB cut interest rates by 25bps but not only did that not solve the problem, it actually revealed (or perhaps confirmed) an even larger problem.
Our model for analysing the relationship between gold and real interest rates suggest that gold prices should be significantly higher than $1800.00/oz, given the current level of US real interest rates. Of course no model is perfect and even if it was it doesn’t mean that gold prices must rise, as real interest rates could increase and the relationship would remain intact. However if the US does embark on further monetary easing, or market expectations of easing increase then US real interest rates could fall still further, implying an even higher gold price.
 

d-lod

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http://www.jsmineset.com/


I promised that I would reveal some interesting things about the EW moves in gold since the $681 low in October 2008. That low was the start of the Major THREE wave. In Major ONE I mentioned that the corrections were 4%, 8%, 16% and then 32%.

We know that Major THREE will likely be longer and stronger than the prior Major ONE up wave. It is logical to expect that the corrections in major THREE will be a larger percentage than those experienced in Major ONE. This is how the first Intermediate wave of Major THREE developed in terms of London PM Fixings:

Intermediate Wave I in London PM Fixings

Oct 08 to Feb 09 $712.5 to $989.0 + $276.5 +38.8%
Feb 09 to Apl 09 $989.0 to $870.5 -$118.5 -12.0%
Apl 09 to Dec 09 $870.5 to $1212.5 +$342.0 +39.3%
Dec 09 to Feb 10 $1212.5 to $1058.0 -$154.5 -12.7%
Feb 10 to Jun 2011 $1058.0 to $1549.0 +$491.0 +46.4%

These are typical of the beautifully consistent sizes of EW waves in gold. There are two up waves of about 39% and two corrections of about 12%. Several things can be determined from these numbers. In February 2010 it was possible to pencil in a target for wave 5 of $1470, being a 39% rise from the wave 4 low of $1058. The 12% corrections are larger than the 8% for the equivalent waves in Major ONE, which was expected. One can deduce that the correction to follow wave 5 will be one degree larger than 12%, possibly double this figure. The target for wave 5 of $1470 was exceeded mainly because this became an extended wave. It reached a high of $1549 for a gain of 46.4%. The chart below depicts these waves in London PM fixings:

Extended waves are simply waves that subdivide into an additional 5 waves. It happens mainly to 5th waves and generally makes life difficult for EW analysts. Difficult yes, but not impossible.. The analysis of the first extension, the extension of wave 5, is set out below:

clip_image004

Wave 5 of Intermediate Wave I – based on London PM fixings.

(1) 1058 to 1261 +$203 +19.2%

(2) 1261 to 1157 -$104 – 8.2%

(3) 1157 to 1421 +$264 +22.8%

(4) 1421 to 1319 -$102 – 7.2%

(5) 1319 to 1549 +$230 +17.5%

Wave 5 1058 to 1549 +$491 +46.4%

NOTE: From the $1319 start of wave (5) above, the target price was $1319 + 19.2%, the same gain as wave (1), giving a target of $1572. The high price for gold in wave (5) in the spot market was $1576 on a day (2 May 2011) when the UK had a public holiday and there was no London PM fix available. Thus the gain for wave (5) was stunted in terms of PM fixes. This is not satisfactory and it became necessary to revert to analysing the waves in spot gold prices to get accurate readings. This was also required in order to pick up the minor waves in the final two extensions which were explosive in nature.

To illustrate how to analyse gold using EW through this difficult period, it is best to work through the time line as it actually happened. As noted above, the expectation was that following the completion of the extended wave 5, a correction one degree larger than 12% would occur from the peak of wave (5) at $1576.

Gold had a minor correction to $1478 in the spot market and then started a sharp upward move. When gold went to a new high above $1576 the probability of the big 24% (give or take 3%) correction occurring at that time receded. The stronger probability was that a new 5th wave extension was underway. This was the first of the explosive series of extensions in gold. It became an historic sequence of four 5th wave extensions in declining orders of magnitude.

At the end of each extended wave, the spectre of the bigger correction (21% to 27%) came into focus. With each new high, the bigger correction was delayed and a new extended wave was born. At $1814, after three 5th wave extensions, the probability that $1814 was THE high was about 80%. Another extension at an even smaller degree was accorded only a 15% probability. The remaining 5% covered the possibility that the wave count was wrong and that a completely different outcome was evolving.

From $1814 gold had a minor correction to $1723, then blasted through $1814 to new all time high prices. The odds of a fourth 5th wave extension at the smallest degree changed from a meagre 15% to a 90% certainty. The wave count at this smallest degree helped to determine in real time that at a price over $1910 gold was in serious danger of an important top, with the bigger correction certain to follow.

clip_image006

clip_image008

clip_image010Both charts updated to 7 October 2011 and illustrate the wave counts described.

We can now consider the possible magnitude of the current correction from the $1913 top. The correction will be one degree larger than the prior corrections, 12% in PM fixes and 14% in spot gold, an average of 13%. That compares with 8% in Major ONE. Both 8 and 13 are Fibonacci numbers, so it may be that the next correction could be 21%, the next Fibonacci number.

In Major ONE, the corrections tended to double when they moved up a degree in magnitude, so one must consider 26%, double 13%, as a possibility. A 21% correction from the peak of $1913 gives a target of $1511. A 26% correction would target $1416. There is one further possible target and that is $1478, the point at which the explosive extensions commenced. The price of an item will often retrace the full amount of the explosive extension. There was a recent example in silver of such a full retracement of the explosive extension, see the chart below:
 

d-lod

dawn
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Do you know something we don't?
No I am as blind as bat as far as future prices are concerned, but the EW theory is great tool to predict possibilities, and the EW expert on gold recently explained gold to react to lower levels

We can now consider the possible magnitude of the current correction from the $1913 top. The correction will be one degree larger than the prior corrections, 12% in PM fixes and 14% in spot gold, an average of 13%. That compares with 8% in Major ONE. Both 8 and 13 are Fibonacci numbers, so it may be that the next correction could be 21%, the next Fibonacci number.
 

CiscoKid

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......and the EW expert on gold recently explained gold to react to lower levels
So, I'm not crazy to hold onto dry powder right now and wait for the correction???
 

klichko

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No I am as blind as bat as far as future prices are concerned, but the EW theory is great tool to predict possibilities, and the EW expert on gold recently explained gold to react to lower levels
D-lod,

I am not questioning your credibility (not at all), but it would help if you answer these two questions:

1. How long have you been using the EW analysis and how successful have you been using it?

2. Are there studies on how reliable the EW analysis is? I mean did anyone conclude that EW is correct in NN% (say 80%) of the cases?

Thank you.
 

d-lod

dawn
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D-lod,

I am not questioning your credibility (not at all), but it would help if you answer these two questions:

1. How long have you been using the EW analysis and how successful have you been using it?

2. Are there studies on how reliable the EW analysis is? I mean did anyone conclude that EW is correct in NN% (say 80%) of the cases?

Thank you.
klichko

You should doubt the creditability of people who postulate theories, prices and many such predictions. I am just posting my analysis of gold prices as I see them unfolding using EW, fibo, MACD, momentum and RSI.

1. I am using it since 2005 more precisely with gold and recently since two years with silver.

2. Yes specially with gold. Please read following article thrice to get to the truth yourself. Every time it will expand your vision for future.

http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/11/14/keynote-speech-at-sydney-gold-symposium-14-15-november-2011-by-alf-field/



The obvious conclusion was that it was necessary to resort to technical analysis to find a way to predict movements in the gold price. I experimented with a variety of technical systems and then got lucky. I discovered that the Elliott Wave Theory (EW) gave superb results in predicting the gold price. I couldn’t get the same great results using EW in other commodities or markets. EW is a complicated system with many difficult rules, but I will try and explain it in simple terms.
The technique is to concentrate on the corrections. In terms of EW, the sequence in a bull market is as follows. The market rises, has a 4% correction, rises, has a 4% correction and rises again. At this point the next correction jumps from 4% to a larger degree of magnitude, say 8%. The market then repeats the sequence. A rise, a 4% correction, a rise, 4% correction, a rise and another 8% correction. When the market is eventually due a third 8% correction, the magnitude of that correction jumps from 8% to 16%. This sequence is repeated until two 16% corrections have occurred when the size of the next big correction jumps to 32%.

see corrections are scientifically designed by mass psychology.


The beauty of EW is that the corrections in gold are remarkably regular and consistent. Early in 2002 I picked up the 4%, 4%, 8% rhythm in the gold market which convinced me that a new bull market had started in gold. Another feature of EW is that once one is confident that these percentages have been established and one has some idea of the approximate size of the up moves, simple arithmetic allows one to calculate a forecast of the future price trend.

Using this method I calculated that the gold price should rise from the $300 ruling in 2002 to at least $750 without having anything worse than two 16% corrections on the way. That was valuable information at that time. Furthermore, from the $750 target a big 32% correction could be expected to about $500. Then the bull market would resume, rising to perhaps $2,500 before another 32% correction occurred. The final up-move would take the gold price to much higher levels, possibly $6,000. Once again, a valuable insight when gold was $300 in 2002.

Sometime it require to learn in retrospect to get the true expansion values. (we arn't god)


THE BRUTAL TRUTHS

The slate needs to be wiped clean and a new sound monetary system introduced.
That will require the elimination of all debt, deficits, unfunded social entitlements, the US Dollar as Reserve currency, and the big one, the $600 trillion of derivatives.
To eliminate these problems by default and deflation will cause a banking collapse and untold economic pain, leading to riots and political change.
Politicians are appointed for relatively short terms and opt for the easy solutions.
While politicians continue to have the ability to create new money at will, they will do so in order to prevent a melt down on their watch.
Consequently the odds point to governments wiping the slate clean by generating enough new money to eventually destroy their currencies.
The new international monetary system is likely to involve precious metals. It will have to be money that people trust and that governments cannot create at will.
The last wave explanation from EWpoint of view.

NOTE: From the $1319 start of wave (5) above, the target price was $1319 + 19.2%, the same gain as wave (1), giving a target of $1572. The high price for gold in wave (5) in the spot market was $1576 on a day (2 May 2011) when the UK had a public holiday and there was no London PM fix available. Thus the gain for wave (5) was stunted in terms of PM fixes. This is not satisfactory and it became necessary to revert to analysing the waves in spot gold prices to get accurate readings. This was also required in order to pick up the minor waves in the final two extensions which were explosive in nature.

To illustrate how to analyse gold using EW through this difficult period, it is best to work through the time line as it actually happened. As noted above, the expectation was that following the completion of the extended wave 5, a correction one degree larger than 12% would occur from the peak of wave (5) at $1576.

Gold had a minor correction to $1478 in the spot market and then started a sharp upward move. When gold went to a new high above $1576 the probability of the big 24% (give or take 3%) correction occurring at that time receded. The stronger probability was that a new 5th wave extension was underway. This was the first of the explosive series of extensions in gold. It became an historic sequence of four 5th wave extensions in declining orders of magnitude.

At the end of each extended wave, the spectre of the bigger correction (21% to 27%) came into focus. With each new high, the bigger correction was delayed and a new extended wave was born. At $1814, after three 5th wave extensions, the probability that $1814 was THE high was about 80%. Another extension at an even smaller degree was accorded only a 15% probability. The remaining 5% covered the possibility that the wave count was wrong and that a completely different outcome was evolving.

From $1814 gold had a minor correction to $1723, then blasted through $1814 to new all time high prices. The odds of a fourth 5th wave extension at the smallest degree changed from a meagre 15% to a 90% certainty. The wave count at this smallest degree helped to determine in real time that at a price over $1910 gold was in serious danger of an important top, with the bigger correction certain to follow.

We can now consider the possible magnitude of the current correction from the $1913 top. The correction will be one degree larger than the prior corrections, 12% in PM fixes and 14% in spot gold, an average of 13%. That compares with 8% in Major ONE. Both 8 and 13 are Fibonacci numbers, so it may be that the next correction could be 21%, the next Fibonacci number.

In Major ONE, the corrections tended to double when they moved up a degree in magnitude, so one must consider 26%, double 13%, as a possibility. A 21% correction from the peak of $1913 gives a target of $1511. A 26% correction would target $1416. There is one further possible target and that is $1478, the point at which the explosive extensions commenced. The price of an item will often retrace the full amount of the explosive extension. There was a recent example in silver of such a full retracement of the explosive extension, see the chart below:
The above clips are in explaination from EW point but for your good click the link and read thrice.
 

d-lod

dawn
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While there is a possibility we will retest 1535 or try a bit lower the fact is that we have already seen the 20% decline. At any rate we have either seen or will soon see the LAST decent buying opportunity for this bull market. Average into physical do not try to pick the bottom.


lhslancers3270;

I am in Infancy as far as PM is concerned, as I bought my major chunk in 2000. I am holding physical, I failed miserably in paper money, I had profit of CD 1,50000/- in just one month and lost major gain in 2008. Since than I started paying more attention to corrections. You are right about silver bottom but I know that defying every rule silver broke to $8 from 21/-

So I am cautious, if you remember this thread had predicted 26.40 as bottom, but I have also given lower levels believing in capacity of manipulators.

Both of us are wise and know that PM are not truly priced otherwise the GIMRS would own 10% of city.



http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/clip_image010.jpg


In Major ONE, the corrections tended to double when they moved up a degree in magnitude, so one must consider 26%, double 13%, as a possibility. A 21% correction from the peak of $1913 gives a target of $1511. A 26% correction would target $1416. There is one further possible target and that is $1478, the point at which the explosive extensions commenced. The price of an item will often retrace the full amount of the explosive extension. There was a recent example in silver of such a full retracement of the explosive extension, see the chart below:

I have given similar targets.
 

klichko

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klichko

The above clips are in explaination from EW point but for your good click the link and read thrice.
Yeap, I read this article a few days ago and re-read it just now. I see your point.

I can be very patient :biggrin:
 

d-lod

dawn
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Yeap, I read this article a few days ago and re-read it just now. I see your point.

I can be very patient :biggrin:

The key word to life's craving is mass psychology and human mind can little differentiate between intrinsic value and desired value. Food, shelter, air, water, earth, fire has intrinsic value and to buy them we need medium and truly globally accepted currency is Gold and Silver. India and china was hoarding even when it was not appreciating.

Alf is the one who turned the wheel quite early for Westerners and still buffet sold his silver at 8$.
 

d-lod

dawn
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http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1321862520.php
Not saying you're wrong, but I've heard this for months now on this forum.


The long-term chart for gold going back to a point before its bullmarket started shows a generally steady uptrend in force over many years, the biggest interruption within which was the drop occasioned by the 2008 market crash which saw gold breach the lower trendline temporaily to drop back to an important support level where it reversed back to the upside. As we can see, gold touched the top of this major uptrend channel in August where the latest advance peaked and it is still towards the top of the channel. The wild swings in the MACD indicator from massively overbought at the August peak to massively oversold just a month later are now interpreted as being symptomatic of a highly agitated, over-excited and nervous market, the sort we would associate with a peak of some significance and so it is thought quite likely that gold will now enter a longer and deeper reactive phase. This fits with a deepening of the European crisis and a deflationary episode that would be expected to generate further inflows into the US dollar, and as we can on gold's chart it could fall as low as the mid $1400's without breaking down from its long-term uptrend.
Hopping from one prediction to other...........................outlook hopper
 

southfork

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bump.

Considering purchasing gold over the weekend. Thoughts d-lod? Anyone?
I wouldnt make any large buys, I still expect a major wack on this new EU BS they came out with today. Given the current enviorment Im only buying niche items like 1/10th krugerands, old silver bars and those dam 2011 eagle sets.
 

TomJerry

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I wouldnt make any large buys, I still expect a major wack on this new EU BS they came out with today. Given the current enviorment Im only buying niche items like 1/10th krugerands, old silver bars and those dam 2011 eagle sets.
There is a lot of support at 1705-1710 area. It's held since late last month. Could be the new floor? Don't listen to me though, I don't know what I'm talking about. Just looking for free advise. :yes:
 

pimples

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headlines from 1999
"Bank of England sells 400 tonnes of gold in auctions at avg price of $278 per ounce"
"Swiss national bank sells 2000 tonnes of gold and buys income producing assets"
"Dutch banks sell 100 tonnes of gold"
"France sells 350 tonnes of gold to invest in education"

headlines from 2010,2011
"Indian central bank buys half of IMF gold offered at $1050 per ounce"
"Central banks are net buyers of gold for first time in 30years"
"German bundesbank refuses to sell its gold or use it as collateral"
"China is buying gold on a regular basis"

.....i'm just an old speculator......
 

pedzola

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I'm having trouble understanding this thread, and the analysis herein.

I like to think I'm a pretty smart guy, and have taken my share of graduate finance courses, but this is all greek to me.

Some of the "technical" analysis seems like BS. It's like you're flipping a coin, and when you see it land on heads 5 times in a row you draw a line and call it an up-trend.

To me, investing in PMs is more logic than math. Governments creating fiat without any new wealth creation = inflation, increasing prices, and low interest rates. Commodities (PM's) hold their value.

A vast oversimplification, but one that has so far done well for me.

But I'm always looking to learn something new.

Can someone put the community concensus into simple terms? Is everyone expecting higher gold and silver prices or lower? Is this a time to buy or sell? Are the primary drivers right now the economic fundamentals or excessive speculation/manipulation?

I feel out of place reading this thread, hope someone will pity my ignorance and break it down.

Thanks