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GOLD IN THIRD WAVE

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dawn
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Jelly

Its good to be ambitious but this is too much of ambition..............

The Wave 1 was 252 - 430.5$ and it was corrected to 371$ and was corrected by 13.75%.
If history repeats than we are looking for 1648ish to 1550ish.

The wave 1 of WAVE I had double top formation similar to wave 1 of WAVE III.............


The world is small and round indeed.
 

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dawn
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That is an area of strong support I doubt we get that low. Seems if we do get a repeat of 2008 that Gold will hold up this time. Silver might get hit harder but I doubt we even make a new low under 32.50 if that were to happen. Onwards and upwards.:biggrin:


Not so lucky
 

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dawn
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Right on Curtman, but there are lot many similarities in Wave 1 of WAVE I and III.


...........................WAVE I............................................................WAVE III

Wave A: 430.50 - 387.64 = 42.86..........................Wave A: 1912.02 - 1702.48 = 209.54
Wave B: 387.64 - 432.10 = 44.46...........................Wave B: 1702.48 - 1920.74 = 218.26
Wave C: 432.10 - 371.00 = 61.10...........................Wave C: 1920.74 - 1621.10 = 299.64


I am trying to look at similarity and holding camp with history repeats.



Breaking of this last support will make help in labeling this wave as wave II
 

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dawn
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If I am truly following Alf Fields' count than we have finished WAVE 1 from 254 - 1032 which retraced 44.3% to 681, This wave is WAVE III's 1st wave and it has begun from 681 if that is to retrace to than the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

If I consider your wave count from 1309 - 1925 than already gold has retraced more than 44.1%, which is at 1650ish. Gold has retraced to 1628.14.

So may be it is 1st of Wave 3.



Its amusing, how we can see truth but can not follow it??????????????????????????
 

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dawn
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If I am truly following Alf Fields' count than we have finished WAVE 1 from 254 - 1032 which retraced 44.3% to 681, This wave is WAVE III's 1st wave and it has begun from 681 if that is to retrace to than the 38.2% retracment could be 1447.77 and second could be 1360.96 at 44.1 %.

If I consider your wave count from 1309 - 1925 than already gold has retraced more than 44.1%, which is at 1650ish. Gold has retraced to 1628.14.

So may be it is 1st of Wave 3.
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1365975936.php


The sad thing is that this late afternoon selloff was an orchestrated event by people wishing to see the gold price lower so that they could cover short positions in the paper gold markets. Proof of this is that London PM fixing on Friday was $1535. Once the London physical market closed, the orchestrated selling in the paper markets gathered momentum. By the close of the Comex paper gold market, gold had dropped $60 in just the last couple of hours on very high volume.

This is not something new. Observers of the gold market have been aware of many other occasions where similar events on a smaller scale have taken place on Friday afternoons. There is little point getting one’s knickers in a knot about this because every short sale in the paper market has to be covered by a corresponding purchase in due course. Thus if people who bought into the selling spree simply hold onto their positions, a short squeeze will eventually develop as the short sellers try to cover their positions, causing the gold price to rise.
 

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dawn
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lightcycler

Following is the thread for silver.

http://www.goldismoney2.com/showthread.php?16871-Silver-next-correction/page5

To reflect on your statement, I would say Silver has corrected to 78% in past, from top 21ish to 8.43, which was top of 1st wave, if that is so than 1st wave in this case is 19.46, and a very strong support. The correction levels are very clearly stated on page 4 of the above thread.
And volativity will be very high and using DYOD, trade safely.
REMINENCE.....
 
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The last couple of days have been stunning indeed. As of this morning, gold is already down 30 percent from it's 1950 high. A little bit more and we may eclipse 2008's 35 percent decline.
 
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I think this is a bigger wave down than the one in 2008.
If you look at gold's monthly moving averages 10-ema and 20-sma, they have never crossed bearishly since 2002 until this year.

Really the only time to buy is the first time when the monthly MAs cross bullishly again. If using EW "rule of thumb", wave II of larger degree will tend to fall between wave 3 and 4 of the smaller degree. I believe 2008-2009 was wave 3 and 4 of smaller degree than what we're seeing here.

I think gold "could" have made a higher high this year above 1920 before crashing big time but manipulation didn't allow that to happen. It actually made gold stay longer in the trading range before pushing it lower.

If you extend the neckline from 2008-2009, it will provide support around 1100 for gold. I think that is the low where we will see a very good rally or maybe that is the low.

Silver - 19.50 but 1100/19.50 is 56. That GSR is too low for a bottom but stranger things have happened.
 
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I think this is a bigger wave down than the one in 2008.
If you look at gold's monthly moving averages 10-ema and 20-sma, they have never crossed bearishly since 2002 until this year.

Really the only time to buy is the first time when the monthly MAs cross bullishly again. If using EW "rule of thumb", wave II of larger degree will tend to fall between wave 3 and 4 of the smaller degree. I believe 2008-2009 was wave 3 and 4 of smaller degree than what we're seeing here.

I think gold "could" have made a higher high this year above 1920 before crashing big time but manipulation didn't allow that to happen. It actually made gold stay longer in the trading range before pushing it lower.

If you extend the neckline from 2008-2009, it will provide support around 1100 for gold. I think that is the low where we will see a very good rally or maybe that is the low.

Silver - 19.50 but 1100/19.50 is 56. That GSR is too low for a bottom but stranger things have happened.
There was a bearish 50 & 200 MA that happened in late Feb. Wished I paid attention to that.
 

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dawn
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I think this is a bigger wave down than the one in 2008.
If you look at gold's monthly moving averages 10-ema and 20-sma, they have never crossed bearishly since 2002 until this year.

Really the only time to buy is the first time when the monthly MAs cross bullishly again. If using EW "rule of thumb", wave II of larger degree will tend to fall between wave 3 and 4 of the smaller degree. I believe 2008-2009 was wave 3 and 4 of smaller degree than what we're seeing here.

I think gold "could" have made a higher high this year above 1920 before crashing big time but manipulation didn't allow that to happen. It actually made gold stay longer in the trading range before pushing it lower.

If you extend the neckline from 2008-2009, it will provide support around 1100 for gold. I think that is the low where we will see a very good rally or maybe that is the low.

Silver - 19.50 but 1100/19.50 is 56. That GSR is too low for a bottom but stranger things have happened.
scofield

There has been many miscalculation in naming waves in gold bull.

EW doesn't work well till first wave is not completed. The present wave was labelled wave 1 of Major III by Alf Field, but if the correction goes to 1165 than it is MAJOR II.

The retracement level could be 1165. Which is 23% more than last wave's retracment of 45%..


Last wave had retraced from 1032 to 681 that is 45% of bull from 254 - 1032.

254 - 1032 = 778

1032 - 681 = 351

778 - 45% = 350.10

additional 23% fibo of last 45% retracment is 55.35%

As per ALF, the corrective wave is always of larger proportion than previous.
If we calculate based on that than

254 - 1912 = 1658
1658 - 55.35% = 917

1912 - 917 = approximate 1000. (the worst case scenario)

if it is 45% of 1658 than it could go upto 1165.

1165 AND 1000 are worst case scenerio, if this is MAJOR II
 

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scofield

There has been many miscalculation in naming waves in gold bull.

EW doesn't work well till first wave is not completed. The present wave was labelled wave 1 of Major III by Alf Field, but if the correction goes to 1165 than it is MAJOR II.

The retracement level could be 1165. Which is 23% more than last wave's retracment of 45%..


Last wave had retraced from 1032 to 681 that is 45% of bull from 254 - 1032.

254 - 1032 = 778

1032 - 681 = 351

778 - 45% = 350.10

additional 23% fibo of last 45% retracment is 55.35%

As per ALF, the corrective wave is always of larger proportion than previous.
If we calculate based on that than

254 - 1912 = 1658
1658 - 55.35% = 917

1912 - 917 = approximate 1000. (the worst case scenario)

if it is 45% of 1658 than it could go upto 1165.

1165 AND 1000 are worst case scenerio, if this is MAJOR II


http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii-view/cutgold-production-seen-if-price-dip-sub-361250oz-ubs_853327.html



After global markets witnessed a steep fall in gold and crude prices, Tom Price, Global Commodity Analyst, UBS Equities Research feels there may be a cut in production if gold price falls below USD 1,250-1,280 per ounce.

The catalyst that has dominated here is the announcement that Cyprus was preparing for gold sellout. We spoke to institutional investors in equity markets and in gold markets. The feedback from the Europe is that there was a concern that policy might spread to other marginal economies and Europe said that would include Spain, Italy and many more. The potential broad application of that policy looks like it is the main catalyst for the sell-off.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-16/if-gold-was-just-commodity-what-would-be-its-support-price


The article states that marginal gold production cost in 2008-09 was 668 and in 2012 it was 1104, which for 2013 is 1300.

So 681 bottom of 2008 - 09. and in 2013 it could be anything between 1100 to 1300ish
 
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yeah, if 1030-680 was wave 4, then this wave II is going to fall somewhere between 680 to 1030. because it is a larger degree correction.

Also, gold tends to fall to the 50% to 61.8% retrace of the last move. If we retrace the move from 250, it's going to be between 1085 (50%) and 887 (61.8%)! what a coincidence ;)
 

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OK so let me try to explain what I mean. If bull run for gold has to run estimated run of 12000 - 15000$ an ounce and if that would be achieved in major five waves, than they could be ONE, THREE and FIVE as impulsive waves and TWO and FOUR as corrective waves. LOOK at gold chart in line form on monthly chart, you will see only three significant top, since year 2000. I look at is tops of 1st, 3rd and 5th waves of MAJOR ONE. If that is so gold should be in for major correction. This being US presidential year everyone is aware of his first love......stock market..

so is it MAJOR II or Wave 2 of MAJOR III?
 

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dawn
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yeah, if 1030-680 was wave 4, then this wave II is going to fall somewhere between 680 to 1030. because it is a larger degree correction.

Also, gold tends to fall to the 50% to 61.8% retrace of the last move. If we retrace the move from 250, it's going to be between 1085 (50%) and 887 (61.8%)! what a coincidence ;)
887 WILL NEVER COME.

I made my first purchase of gold in 2000, after reading the news that it is being sold at production cost. Even 19 year old bear market stopped its decline at production cost.
 

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Lets assume two scenario
First one that 1912 was the top of fifth wave of MAJOR ONE and second scenerio that it is in wave 3 of MAJOR ONE.

In first case as there is no comparative correction depth data available, we may have to rely on fibo level.
So the upmove from 254 in 2000 to 1912 in 2011 could be retraced to 1283 that 38.2% or further down to fifty percent that around approx 1000$

If we take second scene than previous wave one was corrected from 1032 -681 so counts could be as follow:


0254 - 1032 = 0778 (wave 1)
1072 - 0681 = 0351 (wave 2) 45% of 778
0681 - 1920 = 1239 (wave 3)
1920 - 1362 = 0557 (wave 4) 45% of 1239


The Elliot wave suggest that wave 2 and 4 should be of similar %, so as wave 2 was 45%of rise (778) than wave 4 should reach 1362, which is 45% of 1239 (rise fro 681 - 1920)

If this wave 4 of Major ONE than the bottom is in and can be retested.
 
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the more I look at silver, the more I think 1150 about as low as gold will go. I don't agree this is wave 4 but let's see :bear_smile:
 

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the more I look at silver, the more I think 1150 about as low as gold will go. I don't agree this is wave 4 but let's see :bear_smile:
scofield

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1368021900.php

All corrections tabulized since 2000, a good demonstration through graph.

It is likely that India’s gold has been leased by the Bank of England in order to suppress the price of gold. India is a former crown colony and its imperial shackles have not yet been completely removed.

The international monetary system based on credit and debt is, in truth, a confidence game in which gold was once a critical component. But when ties between paper money and gold were severed in 1971, confidence in the bankers’ paper money began to falter; and, today we are witness to what happens when confidence in a global confidence game begins to evaporate.
 
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I say meh... they forgot to include the correction from 1974 to 1976 but that's what makes a market :bear_smile:
 

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I say meh... they forgot to include the correction from 1974 to 1976 but that's what makes a market :bear_smile:
scofield

The concept of this being 4th or fifth wave was clearly demonstrated in this article, which should have interested you.

Recently, an article, The Gold Correction: What’s the Big Deal?, at Seeking Alpha posted the following chart. However, measured from its September 2011 high of $1901.35, gold’s fall is 28 %, a drop remarkable similar to its 2008 correction of 27.7 %.
So as per EW, the corrective % of two waves (2 and 4) are equivalent, if that is so than we have reached our corrective level, just a revisiting is required. And if this is a fifth wave than we should expect more correction.
 

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If manipulation negates charting, why bother? :confused:
Nothing can negate charting! It is what it is, the participants are what they are and do what they do, big, small, evil or otherwise.... they all leave patterns in price history that can help us determine whether the odds favor a higher or lower price looking forward.
 

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Good luck trying to figure where Gold goes by looking at Silver. Silver bottomed 6 or 8 years before Gold did (250) in 99 or 01. All of these EW counts are based on bullish outcomes. I would like to see one where the May 11 Silver high is treated as a truncated Wave 5 as in its all over.
Be wary of looking at extreme sentiment indicators as a reason to be bullish metals here. Once the major trend turns the sentiment changes. Go back and check the sentiment coming off the 1982 common stock bottom. While Prechter has screwed the pooch on the metals markets for some time he might be proven right. In the addendum to his EW book written in 78 I believe he allowed for a higher high in Gold within a bearish wave structure.
Metals might be cooked for a long time here.
lhslancers

Your Aavtaar is hot during this cold correction
 
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scofield

The concept of this being 4th or fifth wave was clearly demonstrated in this article, which should have interested you.

So as per EW, the corrective % of two waves (2 and 4) are equivalent, if that is so than we have reached our corrective level, just a revisiting is required. And if this is a fifth wave than we should expect more correction.
I disagree with this count and even if this is wave 4, the rule of alternation says if wave 2 was relative shallow (28%) then wave 4 should be sharp (>28%). There are so many rules of thumb, really we are arguing about theories and interpretations. I say let the market sort it out in time and tell us what it's true intentions are.

lancers, are you bearish until gold closes above 1800 for a few months? That is the least risky way to trade gold I agree.
 

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When GIM starts "acting out" I'm a buyer, howzat fur a plan? :cheerful:
 

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I disagree with this count and even if this is wave 4, the rule of alternation says if wave 2 was relative shallow (28%) then wave 4 should be sharp (>28%). There are so many rules of thumb, really we are arguing about theories and interpretations. I say let the market sort it out in time and tell us what it's true intentions are.

lancers, are you bearish until gold closes above 1800 for a few months? That is the least risky way to trade gold I agree.


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/rosen050813.html


“There is a general tendency for the pattern of the two corrective swings in a completed 5-wave sequence to alternate between a simple (very often an ABC) correction and one of the more complicated or “complex” Elliott corrections.” E. W. P.


“In most cases Wave (2) usually unfolds as a simple ABC correction. Or put another way, a simple ABC correction is found in a Wave (2) correction more often than in a Wave (4).” E. W. P.

and finally by famous Ronald Rosen


The result of comparing movements in the gold complex to movements in the megaphone pattern in the DJIA and S&P500 during the 1966 to 1974 bear market was a potentially very rewarding timing discovery. When wave D in the 1966 to 1974 megaphone bear market pattern in the S&P500 and the DJIA topped, the next move up in the gold bull market began. If we fast forward to the year 2013 we find that wave D in the megaphone pattern of the S & P 500 and the DJIA is close to topping. At the same time the next move up in the current bull market in gold appears ready to begin. The difference is that the current movements represent Major Waves whereas the movements in the 1966 to 1974 time period were minor waves. This difference should result in a more severe bear market in the stock averages and a more powerful bull market in the precious metals complex. Gold and silver prosper when the stock averages are in a bear market. The bear market in the stock averages will be entering its most damaging [E] wave decline in 2013. At the same time gold and silver should be rising in a dynamic phase.
 

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haven't done one these in quite awhile.....maybe this whole set is just a giant wave 1 broken into 5 pieces?....that would suck though because per ew principles, "2 often retraces nearly all of 1" ... even more possible because this little number 2 did not 'mostly retrace its number 1', so could negate this set.....1050 support and i think the bull market would be over....merry christmas one and all

View attachment 13488
hmmm......slowly sucking the gold price down like a magnet rite......even the pros are saying "bull market over" and "GLD etf dumping gold by the tonnes".......maybe gold is near a bottom or maybe it cracks one more time to $1000 and everyone seeks death?lol. .....this is an old chart but still relevant imo.
 

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hmmm......slowly sucking the gold price down like a magnet rite......even the pros are saying "bull market over" and "GLD etf dumping gold by the tonnes".......maybe gold is near a bottom or maybe it cracks one more time to $1000 and everyone seeks death?lol. .....this is an old chart but still relevant imo.
Chinese have yet to be proven foolish and remember those, Russians, once beaten twice shy, both have hoarded universal currency like crazy.

So when moolah turn, bearish than............................................
 

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http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/blockbuster-gold-11856


It is widely reported that the 10 million ounces of gold that came out of the GLD have been bought by India or China, even though substantiating data is lacking. Let’s only consider the facts that we know. The 10 million gold ounces that came out of the GLD equals roughly 100 million shares of GLD (one-tenth ounce per share). The 10 million ounces that are no longer in the GLD still exist and, therefore, must be owned by someone. We know that the reason the shares were liquidated in GLD was due to the rotten price performance that weighs on metals investors’ minds. This tends to eliminate China as the big buyer; as such buying would cause gold prices to rise, not fall. The shares were sold and metal redeemed because the price went down, largely a self-reinforcing spiral. We know how much was sold and who the sellers were. What we don’t know is the identity of the buyers. There is a good reason for that. The buyers have tried mightily to hide their identity.

I believe that the big buyer of the 10 million ounces of gold liquidated in the GLD was JPMorgan, either alone or with other collusive commercial banks. The same methodology I’ve previously attributed to a potential Mr. Big in SLV (also probably JPMorgan) is at work in GLD. If one (or 2 or 3) big buyers in GLD had merely purchased the 100 million shares that were sold in GLD, that would have quickly pushed the big buyer(s) over the 5% SEC reporting threshold thereby revealing their identity. But by having the gold redeemed out of the trust and the metal being purchased (instead of shares), stock reporting requirements are evaded. A single holder, perhaps working with a few collusive partners, have come to own what is, effectively, almost a quarter of the world’s largest gold stockpile and no one is the wiser.


I believe that JPMorgan and the commercials have come to hate the COT and Bank Participation reporting data because it reveals what they are up to in exquisite detail. Wrong doers prefer to operate in the dark, under rocks. But the one thing the available data shows is that the big buyers on the wicked price decline have been the commercials. On the one hand, I find it deplorable that big banks are allowed to manipulate our markets for their own benefit, making a mockery of our laws and corrupting our regulators. On the other hand, watching JPMorgan and the commercials buy so aggressively in gold and silver only leads to the conclusion that these crooks have a plan for much higher metals prices to come. If, as I contend, JPMorgan picked up at least 20 million gold ounces they shook out from the GLD and elsewhere, a $300 dollar gold rally will net them $6 billion in ill-gotten gains on that position alone. It could be much more if they are more ruthless in creating higher prices. Generally, with these crooks they usually exceed what you think they are capable of.
 

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http://news.goldseek.com/LewRockwell/1369606945.php


Citing an explosive 2011 Swiss study published in the PLOS ONE journal on the “network of global corporate control,” Hudes pointed out that a small group of entities – mostly financial institutions and especially central banks – exert a massive amount of influence over the international economy from behind the scenes. “What is really going on is that the world’s resources are being dominated by this group,” she explained, adding that the “corrupt power grabbers” have managed to dominate the media as well. “They’re being allowed to do it.”
According to the peer-reviewed paper, which presented the first global investigation of ownership architecture in the international economy, transnational corporations form a “giant bow-tie structure.” A large portion of control, meanwhile, “flows to a small tightly-knit core of financial institutions.” The researchers described the core as an “economic ‘super-entity’” that raises important issues for policymakers and researchers. Of course, the implications are enormous for citizens as well.


Hudes, an attorney who spent some two decades working in the World Bank’s legal department, has observed the machinations of the network up close. “I realized we were now dealing with something known as state capture, which is where the institutions of government are co-opted by the group that’s corrupt,” she told The New American in a phone interview. “The pillars of the U.S. government – some of them – are dysfunctional because of state capture; this is a big story, this is a big cover up.”
The shadowy but immensely powerful Bank for International Settlements serves as “the club of these private central bankers,” Hudes continued. “Now, are people going to want interest on their country’s debts to continue to be paid to that group when they find out the secret tricks that that group has been doing? Don’t forget how they’ve enriched themselves extraordinarily and how they’ve taken taxpayer money for the bailout.”

As far as intervening in the gold price, Hudes said it was an effort by the powerful network and its central banks to “hold onto its paper currency” – a suspicion shared by many analysts and even senior government officials. The World Bank whistleblower also said that contrary to official claims, she did not believe there was any gold being held in Fort Knox. Even congressmen and foreign governments have tried to find out if the precious metals were still there, but they met with little success. Hudes, however, believes the scam will eventually come undone.