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Gold poised to resume bull market run in 2019-2020 (What to do with all the profit?)

itsamess

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#1
Gold poised to resume bull market run in 2019-2020
Published time: 23 Dec, 2018 11:53
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Precious metal gold, which has been mostly ignored by investors this year, is in the midst of a solid recovery in December, and projected to be getting its safe-haven moment again soon.

Gold prices were solidly higher this week, hitting a five-week high on Thursday at $1,267 per ounce.
According to the economic research consultancy Capital Economics, the end-2019 target for the yellow metal is $1,300 an ounce, followed by the $1,400 level at the end of 2020.

“The past quarter marks a turnaround for the gold price and a sign of what is to come. Accordingly, we continue to expect gold to move higher next year – albeit by a modest $50 per ounce given the recent rally,” economists at Capital Economics wrote in a report seen by Kitco News.
They explained that the optimistic outlook was based on investor interest returning to the gold space as the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle approached.

READ MORE: Silver poised to outpace gold in 2019 – experts

“We are forecasting an end to Fed tightening by the middle of next year. In fact, the dramatic fall in market expectations of Fed tightening over the past six weeks has been a key factor in the recovery in gold prices,” the report said.
It suggested that in 2020 the Fed will start cutting rates more than the markets are pricing in at the moment, which should boost prices at the end of next year.

The economists pointed to weaker US dollar as another major driver for gold in 2019. It has held back and pressured down gold prices for most of this year, they explained.
Demand for safe-haven assets should do well next year, Capital Economics added, noting that ETF holdings are expected to rise back above 80 million ounces.


“We think that prices will continue to rise after 2019, underpinned by the deepening downturn in the US economy in 2020 and looser US monetary policy. Our forecast is for gold prices to reach $1,400 per ounce by end-2020,” the economists said.
 

Uglytruth

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#6
How many sold half at the $1800-$1900 mark or $49 silver & have the rest for free or even profited?
Seems if you bought silver at $5, $10, $15, $20 & you had a sure thing selling half above $40 would have been a smart thing. Easy said, very hard to do.
If you did sell, did you buy back in when it dropped to the new normal low's?

I have some I bought to either sell at a high point or trade if the ratio turns in my favor. You can profit using fiat or trade for more oz.
I'm not going to worry about what could have been. I'm going to worry about what I put in my pocket.
 

Silver Art

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#7
How many sold half at the $1800-$1900 mark or $49 silver & have the rest for free or even profited?
Seems if you bought silver at $5, $10, $15, $20 & you had a sure thing selling half above $40 would have been a smart thing. Easy said, very hard to do.
If you did sell, did you buy back in when it dropped to the new normal low's?

I have some I bought to either sell at a high point or trade if the ratio turns in my favor. You can profit using fiat or trade for more oz.
I'm not going to worry about what could have been. I'm going to worry about what I put in my pocket.
In 2011: I sold a lot of '70's silver art bars in April 2011 and made about $2000 profit from doing so. My gut feeling told that silver was not going to hit $50 and I made a decision at that time to sell when spot was in the $44 - $47 range.

In 2018: I have an ebay/online business selling '70's silver art bars (and other collectible silver bars/rounds/coins) and making a net profit doing so. At $14 - $14.75 current spot silver range, My buy/sell spread is bigger now than it was when I sold in early 2011.

The difference between 2011 and now in 2018 (going into 2019) is this...................In 2011, I was playing the spot silver price game but in 2018 i am playing the "collector" premium game despite spot silver being down 70% from the April 25, 2011 intraday high of $49.85. My net profits now are more stable than it was in 2011 when spot was moving quickly and in big moves.
 

Ragnarok

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#8
Defining the dollar as a fixed weight of gold won’t work. Why don’t these people ever study history?

Gold must define the dollar, not the other way around. This is why I would like to see elemental gold set apart from money and currencies as a measurement standard of wealth. with no tax or regulation whatsoever on possession, sale, purchase or use.

R.
 
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ZZZZZ

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#9
Defining the dollar as a fixed weight of gold won’t work. Why don’t these people ever study history?

Gold must define the dollar, not the other way around. This is why I would like to see elemental gold set apart from money and currencies as a measurement standard of wealth. with no tax or regulation whatsoever on use.

R.
One step at a time, in the right direction.

As with religion, there needs to be a separation of money and state. It'll take an unprecedented monetary panic or revolution to get there.
.
.
 

Ragnarok

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#10
To answer the OP, there is no profit imho, just preservation of purchasing power.

R.
 

Thecrensh

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#12
How many sold half at the $1800-$1900 mark or $49 silver & have the rest for free or even profited?
Seems if you bought silver at $5, $10, $15, $20 & you had a sure thing selling half above $40 would have been a smart thing. Easy said, very hard to do.
If you did sell, did you buy back in when it dropped to the new normal low's?

I have some I bought to either sell at a high point or trade if the ratio turns in my favor. You can profit using fiat or trade for more oz.
I'm not going to worry about what could have been. I'm going to worry about what I put in my pocket.
So let's say you sell half at the "high" and then the markets really do collapse. Suddenly you're holding a bunch of near-worthless fiat and half the PMs you used to have. Granted, you're probably looking to find your next meal and aren't worried about money per se, but it seems to be kind of a risk to sell that much at once.
 

Unca Walt

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#14
How many sold half at the $1800-$1900 mark or $49 silver & have the rest for free or even profited?
Seems if you bought silver at $5, $10, $15, $20 & you had a sure thing selling half above $40 would have been a smart thing. Easy said, very hard to do.
If you did sell, did you buy back in when it dropped to the new normal low's?

I have some I bought to either sell at a high point or trade if the ratio turns in my favor. You can profit using fiat or trade for more oz.
I'm not going to worry about what could have been. I'm going to worry about what I put in my pocket.
Luv ya, Uglytruth… but the above misses the whole fargin point of stacking.

PAPER PROFIT is praiseworthy if you are dealing with Bitcoin or its hundreds of clones. Ephemerals.

And "new normal lows"? What was the normal low when silver was $5?? $10??

If PM's rise to a high level (let's use the $49 silver example) -- all that means is that the hazard of the dollar FINALLY going completely tits up is greater than ever before.

So let us say you sell half at $49, so you are "dollar even" with your "investment".

And tomorrow, silver goes to $970. OOP. You are NOT "WEALTH EVEN" are you.

And the next day, $4000.

And the next day...

So --

There are those (Unca is one of them) who just use fiat dollars that would have been evaporated with time... and the USE of those fiat dollars makes their stacks steadily a tad higher.

The year is 2015. Did you, or did you not... blow about $200 over that year on nothing? We all did. Every year. 2013.

Betcha did. But if you had a tweeny, stable and regular, manageable, essentially "waste fiat" fund to swap for silver -- how much silver would you have acquired over the years that you would otherwise have never seen?

Speculation is NOT stacking.

Speculation is naked shorts of paper PM's. If you are going to be financially looking for profits in dollars, that is the Big League.

I got my wife a $100,000,000,000.00-dollar bill for a gag Christmas present. <-- Now, just suppose Uglytruth, that you had traded your PM's when the Zim dollar went to, oh, Fifty thousand?

Replace Zim with US. It IS paper, you know. It is not mined and refined.
 
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Irons

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#15
The author is a couple years short but on target. I predicted Gold will be running good but not yet peaked around 2025.
I expect to see more articles like this one.


.
AAsmoke.gif
 

Uglytruth

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#16
Unca you make some good points. But life's taught us that anything that runs up that fast is going to have a pullback whether it's bitcoin, beany babys or metals. Stacking is simply dollar cost averaging in. It also depends on where you "got in" at. Where did you buy between $5 & $50? Did you buy on the way up or on the way down? Also depends on how old ya are, health, and whatever else life throws at ya. At this time if you bought in at $15 you had a chance to profit and buy back in at a lower rate. If ya bought in at $40 your under water and still holding if you can stand the mental pain.

EXAMPLE: Bought 100 oz at $15. Sold 50 oz / half at $30. Now your 50 oz of silver is free. This is where you are in the road of life comes into play. When it went to $35 or $40 or $45 or even timed it and sold at $49 did you sell another half of your 50%? You would have put fiat digits into your pocket. How many held and watched the opportunity slip away? How many held tight and rode it both up and back down to $15?

EXAMPLE 2: Bought 100 oz at $15 = $1500. Sold half at $45 = $2250 and still hold / own 50oz Metal runs to $100 oz so your 50 oz is now at $5000. Metals go down to $15 and you buy 150 oz with your "$2250 profits". You now hold 200 oz and your outlay was $750 or $3.75 per oz.

EXAMPLE 3: Bought 100 oz at $15 = $1500. Sold half at $1000 = $50000 and still hold / own 50oz = $50000. Metal runs to $10,000 oz so your 50 oz is now at $500,000. What we are hoping & reality seem to differ.

EXAMPLE 4: Dollar cost averaged in 25 oz at $15 =$375, 25 oz at $30 = $750, 25 oz at $40 = $1000, 25 oz at $50 = $1275.
Total 100 oz. Total spent $3400 or a $34 average per oz. Current value $1500 so your $1900 underwater and feeling like a chump!

Not everyone was lucky enough to get in at $3 oz & bought 5000 oz.

But markets rarely only go one direction. Holding your 50oz you would still be better off than most and having profited fiat digits along the way.
Fill in whatever numbers makes you comfortable. Are we buying to be rich or maintain or a hedge or security? Emotion does come into every decision. How many held bitcoin to 18K only to think it was going to 100K or more? When at what point were they going to sell?

How cna taking profits be a bad thing? All that keeps going through my head is pigs get fat & hogs get slaughtered....

Where am I thinking wrong? I'm not arguing just trying to learn more and more.
 

Unca Walt

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#17
Uglytruth --

In no way will I infer that playing the stock market for fiat profit is wrong, unclever, or anything else like that.

But if you play the stock market using your REAL money to try to anticipate/beat Wall Street Insider PM manipulation... that is where it is dangerous. Really dangerous.

THEY can pump you, short-sell you to shreds, freeze you. USING YOUR MONEY.

If you simply play the market with fiat, you are not using your money. You are using the receipt for the IOU. Held by UNO Who. Don't touch your money.

Lemme repeat that: Don't touch your money.

All fiats in the history of humanity have eventually failed. Even the sorta strict*** Chinese Emperor who invented fiat money (tsau-muchin ren) in the 9th century could not make it work.

***Penalty for forgery was either Death of a Thousand Cuts, skinning alive, or the Cangue.

The US dollar is a vapor. Our Natl Debt is, truly inconceivable. The only thing that -- so far -- prevents collapse is that it is the "world currency".

There are signs this may be changing. We've all seen them. Chinese, Russian, EU, ARABS

When it breaks, it will break at literally lightspeed. There is even a website with continuous instantaneous updates between Hong Kong and New York.
 

southfork

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#18
How many sold half at the $1800-$1900 mark or $49 silver & have the rest for free or even profited?
Seems if you bought silver at $5, $10, $15, $20 & you had a sure thing selling half above $40 would have been a smart thing. Easy said, very hard to do.
If you did sell, did you buy back in when it dropped to the new normal low's?

I have some I bought to either sell at a high point or trade if the ratio turns in my favor. You can profit using fiat or trade for more oz.
I'm not going to worry about what could have been. I'm going to worry about what I put in my pocket.
I sold all my platinum , pallaidum , and some gold and silver, maybe a bit more than half, but Ive bought more under 16, got some at fun show yesterday under 16
 

Thecrensh

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#19
Unca you make some good points. But life's taught us that anything that runs up that fast is going to have a pullback whether it's bitcoin, beany babys or metals. Stacking is simply dollar cost averaging in. It also depends on where you "got in" at. Where did you buy between $5 & $50? Did you buy on the way up or on the way down? Also depends on how old ya are, health, and whatever else life throws at ya. At this time if you bought in at $15 you had a chance to profit and buy back in at a lower rate. If ya bought in at $40 your under water and still holding if you can stand the mental pain.

EXAMPLE: Bought 100 oz at $15. Sold 50 oz / half at $30. Now your 50 oz of silver is free. This is where you are in the road of life comes into play. When it went to $35 or $40 or $45 or even timed it and sold at $49 did you sell another half of your 50%? You would have put fiat digits into your pocket. How many held and watched the opportunity slip away? How many held tight and rode it both up and back down to $15?

EXAMPLE 2: Bought 100 oz at $15 = $1500. Sold half at $45 = $2250 and still hold / own 50oz Metal runs to $100 oz so your 50 oz is now at $5000. Metals go down to $15 and you buy 150 oz with your "$2250 profits". You now hold 200 oz and your outlay was $750 or $3.75 per oz.

EXAMPLE 3: Bought 100 oz at $15 = $1500. Sold half at $1000 = $50000 and still hold / own 50oz = $50000. Metal runs to $10,000 oz so your 50 oz is now at $500,000. What we are hoping & reality seem to differ.

EXAMPLE 4: Dollar cost averaged in 25 oz at $15 =$375, 25 oz at $30 = $750, 25 oz at $40 = $1000, 25 oz at $50 = $1275.
Total 100 oz. Total spent $3400 or a $34 average per oz. Current value $1500 so your $1900 underwater and feeling like a chump!

Not everyone was lucky enough to get in at $3 oz & bought 5000 oz.

But markets rarely only go one direction. Holding your 50oz you would still be better off than most and having profited fiat digits along the way.
Fill in whatever numbers makes you comfortable. Are we buying to be rich or maintain or a hedge or security? Emotion does come into every decision. How many held bitcoin to 18K only to think it was going to 100K or more? When at what point were they going to sell?

How cna taking profits be a bad thing? All that keeps going through my head is pigs get fat & hogs get slaughtered....

Where am I thinking wrong? I'm not arguing just trying to learn more and more.
EXAMPLE 5: Bought 100oz at $47.00 and haven't sold any because you lost it in a boating accident.
 

Thecrensh

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#20
Uglytruth --

The US dollar is a vapor. Our Natl Debt is, truly inconceivable. The only thing that -- so far -- prevents collapse is that it is the "world currency".
My opinion is that they are going to run up the debt well beyond where it is today...unless they drop the dollar and crash it to stop Trump.
 

Merlin

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#24

Unca Walt

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#26
My opinion is that they are going to run up the debt well beyond where it is today...unless they drop the dollar and crash it to stop Trump.

IMO -- both.
 

Unca Walt

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#27
That's a nice start.
That is a SUCKY start.

Thecrensh is spot on: If you have stacked (and other preps) all that means is the fuckin' lifeboat you are in after our luxury liner sank has a tarp to get under.
 

CopperSilverGold

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#28
The unfortunate reality is if your prediction comes to pass, then TSHTF is occurring...and life will be much more difficult for all involved, no matter how much PM you may have stacked.
Agreed, and I don't think the majority here are prepared for something like that, myself included. I'm buying a little each month regardless of price. As I mentioned earlier, profiteering is not my motive, but it does give me some peace of mind. I know I need to focus on other areas as well so that a SHTF scenario is survivable. It seems like some hope it happens, but I certainly don't.
 

BigJim#1-8

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#30
The unfortunate reality is if your prediction comes to pass, then TSHTF is occurring...and life will be much more difficult for all involved, no matter how much PM you may have stacked.
Didn't this already happen 2008-2011? Au went from $870.00 to $1660.00 & Ag went from 14.50 to 48.00, these numbers are approx.
 

Unca Walt

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#31
Didn't this already happen 2008-2011? Au went from $870.00 to $1660.00 & Ag went from 14.50 to 48.00, these numbers are approx.
Not really, BJ.

The Fed pulled out ALL the stops. The blew the fargin bridges. Then they mined the approaches to the burned bridges.

TARP

Troubled Asset Relief Program AKA: TOXIC Asset Relief Program <<-- In other words, they set it up to have you, me, and every other dumbshit PAY FOR THE FUCKUPS OF WALL STREET.

We have not yet come close to paying back the TARP dinner bill.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ll-bailing-out-wall-street-eight-years-later/

This time they are not starting with an empty bucket. They threw in the bucket years ago.
 

TAEZZAR

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#32
IDK, I have been stacking & prepping since the late '70's. I bought $800 gold in Jan of '80, $385 gold in the early '90's, $275 gold in 2001 & $1800 gold in 2011. Does it matter? NO ! You buy when you can-period. I have been doing it long enough that my average is much lower than the present price & probably lower than the future price.
POINT: We have yet to see a real SHTF scenario. I am about done worrying about it. We just rotate our pantry & live our lives !