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Gold Price Forecast 2018 Bullish or Bearish?

Centaura

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#1
Gold Price forecast for 2018 looks bullish as things stand now, the existing risk levels are high, but the perception or understanding of such risks is low. All things being equal, the gold market should already be more bullish. Prices should not regularly fall below the floor of $1,300 or even $1,350 per ounce. Investors are counting on the Trump tax cuts that won’t come. Or at least, they won’t come in as dramatic a way as originally expected.
 

Weatherman

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#2
Agreed. I also think the stock market is long overdue for worry about other problems than cannot be solved (debt, budget battles, political gridlock, very high unemployment, etc.). Once the stock market teaches its investors about risk, gold and silver will shine bright again.
 

solarion

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#3

spinalcracker

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#4
It would be a buying opportunity deluxe if there was a pullback to around $1150...
Regardless , Au is a bargain right now and there is no need to wait for a fire sale to make that stack grow.....

au2017.gif
 

Scorpio

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#5
Centaura

I am a broken record when it comes to this, so will state I will wait and see.

The reality is, the dollar was weakening with no reaction up in metals. Which of course was past tendencies.
Currently though, the dollar looks to be basing on the weekly and trying to start a new uptrend. If so that could be bearish for metals.

We all are now familiar with how old relationships have changed with things not being so clear and distinct.

If x happens then y naturally follows doesn't necessarily apply.

weekly dollar chart:

1.png
 

solarion

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#6
Others have noted the same. Strong dollar = metal weakness. Weak dollar = no effect on metal or weakness in the metals.

To be fair, the usd index is right back where it was in 2016 and so are gold and silver relative to the dollar. On the surface that appears to make perfect sense, however the usd index is not an indicator of dollar value relative to anything real...it's simply a comparison to other fiat currencies...mostly the Euro. The deceptive factor here is that all of these currencies are losing value relative to real world goods and services while appearing to maintain value relative to one another.
 

D-FENZ

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#7
There are lots of factors with lots of moving parts that determine the trading price of gold. Since gold is traded on world markets priced in US dollars, their correlation is often sited as a major indicator of price direction. But any serious study of price direction for gold -or the dollar or any other proxy- would not be complete without including the effects of human emotions- fear and greed. And that is an entirely different can of worms with infinitely more moving parts.

To bypass all of that unpredictability and the associated mental anguish you would probably best be served by only concentrating on one or two common variables. The indicator I like is the gold/silver ratio because silver is a reasonable proxy and their ratio is always moving but somewhat predictable in that it fluctuates in waves between 20 and 100 (my signals are 30 and 80). I swap into those positions gradually as the ratio changes. Swapping the ratio has the added benefit of allowing you to profit in metals regardless of the general price direction.

Long story longer and to the point of the thread- The GSR currently around 80 would indicate that gold is probably overpriced- at least relative to silver.