Gold and Silver weekly update w/e 9th November 2018
Today is Saturday 10th November 2018 and we are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 9th November.
Gold fell $23 last week from $1232 to $1209 having hit a high of $1,235 and a low of $1,207. In sterling terms gold finished the week at £932 that’s down £18 and in Euros it closed at 1,067 Euros that’s down 15 Euros on the week.
Silver fell 59 cents from $14.75 to $14.12 having hit a high of $14.77 and a low of $14.12. In sterling terms, it closed at £10.92 that’s down 46 pence and in Euros it closed at 12.49 euros that’s down 0.46 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio rose more than 2 points from 83.52:1 to 85.62:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 25,989 down 201 points on the day but up 719 points on the week; and the NASDAQ closed at 7,406 down 123 points on the day but up 50 points on the week and the S&P 500 closed at 2,781 down 25 points on the day but up 58 points on the week.
Brent Crude fell $2.65 from $72.83 to $70.18 and US Light Crude fell $2.95 from $63.14 to $60.19
The dollar index stands at 96.90 that’s up 0.36 the week.
We had the perfect storm to attack gold – the election results, although poor for the President, were not as bad as they could have been and frankly were a little better than some of the ‘blue wave theorists advocated. The FOMC’s report on Thursday did little to dispel the prospect of an interest rate rise in December and the Producer Price index reported on Friday rose a considerable 0.6% in October following a smaller than expected gain of 0.2% in September and an expected 0.3% for October. This has meant that producer prices have increased 2.9% over the year. Now when you compare this with last Friday’s report that wages have risen by 3,1% and the unemployment rate has fallen to a 50 year low of 3.7% the FED is certainly watching in case it foresees an overheated economy.
So let’s take a look at the economic news to be announced this coming week:
• Well stock and bond markets are closed on Monday because of Veterans Day
• On Tuesday we have the Federal Budget figures for October.
• On Wednesday the Consumer Price Index and core CPI for October – watch that one.
• On Thursday Retail sales, and the import price index for October.
• On Friday Industrial production figures for October .
So next week shall prove interesting. Friday took quite a fall and there may be a little recovery on Tuesday. However just notice how the DOW has recovered a fair amount of lost ground, how the Dollar index has risen, most commodities, including oil has fallen and the FED is almost certain to rise rates in December.
Finally we also wish to mention the Inner Sanctum and to thank everyone who has joined either as a FREE, Bronze or Silver Member. If you haven’t joined so far, please do so as we do plan to communicate by email periodically and can only do so under current legislation, if you have signed up and ticked the box accepting future emails. The web address of course is www.illuminatisilver.com.
This week we are adding a new Message board to the website where you can see messages and alerts (but you must be a signed in member i.e. FREE, Bronze or Silver to see it). The Facebook Group is also launching on Friday – again we shall place the details on the message board and Forum, and our Forum will have a little make-over so it appears more user friendly.
Meanwhile we wish you a great weekend and for those in the US a relaxing but memorable Veterans Day.
Asian Metals Market Update: Nov 13 2018 By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants
Collapse of global stock markets can result in all metals and energies falling. Reason: Liquidity. Nervous investors will prefer to sit on cash. The continuous zoom up and nosedive pattern of global stock markets and currency markets will prevent retail investors from investing as well as trading. They will just use sharp rises to exit their investment and nothing else.
Why gold will fall below $1200 and silver below $14
Today is Tuesday 13th November 2018 and we are briefly commenting on gold and silver price movements yesterday and today and express why we believe that gold will fall below $1200 and silver below $14 once again.
As we predicted in our Saturday Update, gold and silver prices initially edged higher and then rather quickly fell back again and lower, with gold standing at $1202 and silver at $14.03 as we write this report. Now the main reason is that the Dollar index jumped yesterday from 96.90 to 97.46 and today to 97.53.
The Dow Jones fell over 600 points yesterday to 25,387 and the Nasdaq down over 200 as the market is now fully absorbing that interest rates are most certainly going to rise as well as a profits warning from some of apples suppliers which exacerbated concerns that demand for iPhones is slowing.causing Apple shares to sink by 5% yesterday, dragging down US markets and wiping more than $40bn off the tech giant's market value.
However world markets are holding up reasonably well this morning and once again we suspect that once traders in the US fully accept the envisaged interest rate rise, we may see stock again rebound. The Dow 25,000 level is important and is seen as quite a strong floor with any moves below at this stage being only temporary.
Meanwhile, downward pressure on gold and silver is likely to continue and yes there will be a couple of technical rebounds, but the election results for President Trump though poor were not disastrous and in any case he still dominates the political landscape for now as the new Democrat controlled House does not take effect until January.
So this mixture of a stronger dollar, poor but not disastrous election results and strong economic figures assuring that the FED will raise rates will assure the further decline of gold and silver prices.
If Trump manages to pull off a trade deal with China in the interim, then frankly gold will even hit that $1150 level for sure and silver $13.50. We shall just have to wait and see.
Meanwhile we have launched the Bulletin Board on the website at www.illuminatisilver.com which is accessible to all registered members – Free and Paid – so please visit this regularly together with the forum which has had a couple of hundred posts already and for those of you who are silver members please visit our ‘premium video section’ as there are going to be some quite exciting videos appearing there soon.
Any content within this video or any other video by the Silver Fortune channel is merely one man's opinion, commentary, and analysis, or actual information obtained from elsewhere, and should not be constituted as legal, investment, or financial advice. Make your own financial decisions, or consult a professional if you'd prefer to go that route. The Silver Fortune channel disclaims any liability for legal, financial, or investment decisions made.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Jump 1% 11/14 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold traded mostly higher in Asia before it dropped back to $1197.80 in London, but it then shot back up in New York and ended near its early afternoon high of $1216.30 with a gain of 0.85%. Silver slipped to as low as $13.894 in London, but it then climbed to as high as $14.19 in New York and ended with a gain of 1.14%.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain with Stocks 11/15 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold gained $4.30 to $1216.20 in Asia before it fell back to $1208.10 in London, but it then chopped back higher in New York and ended with a gain of 0.12%. Silver rose to as high as $14.347 and ended with a gain of 0.99%.
Today is Saturday 17th November 2018 and we are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 16th November.
Gold rose $12 last week from $1,209 to $1,221 having hit a high of $1,224 and a low of $1,196. In sterling terms gold finished the week at £951 that’s up £19 and in Euros it closed at 1,069 Euros that’s up 2 Euros on the week.
Silver rose 25 cents from $14.16 to $14.41 having hit a high of $14.42 and a low of $13.90. In sterling terms, it closed at £11.23 that’s up 31 pence and in Euros it closed at 12.62 euros that’s up 0.13 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio fell from 85.62:1 to 84.73:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 25,413 up 123 points on the day but down 576 points on the week; and the NASDAQ closed at 7247 down 11 points on the day and down 159 points on the week and the S&P 500 closed at 2,736 up 6 points on the day but down 45 points on the week.
rent Crude fell $3.42 from $70.18 to $66.76 and US Light Crude fell $3.73 from $60.19 to $56.46
The dollar index stands at 96.46 that’s down 0.44 on the week.
So, let’s take a look at the economic news to be announced this coming week:
• On Monday we have the Home Builders Index for November
• On Wednesday Durable Goods orders and existing home sales for October and Consumer sentiment for November.
• Thursday of course is Thanksgiving
• On Friday Markit Manufacturing and services index for November.
Monday may see a small carry through with positive momentum for gold and silver prices, however we are not too excited by it as we do not envisage a major move in either direction.
Our Inner Sanctum Facebook Group is now open to all silver members. You can access it by going to
and apply to join. It will take us up to 12 hours to verify that you are a silver member because of the time difference between the UK and other countries in which some of our members lie – but it should be faster than that.
We are also sending out some pertinent emails to everyone with information, Free Reports and up and coming events.
The emails will come from 2 sources – either firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com. We have noticed in our testing that some of these are going into spam folders and so we would ask you to whitelist those emails so that they arrive safely into your inbox.
Finally, our Bulletin Board is up and working on the website and we would suggest you look there periodically and of course please take part in our forum especially if you choose not to use the FaceBook Group facility.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold Holds Steady While Stocks Drop 2% More 11/20 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold chopped near unchanged in Asia before it climbed up to $1228.70 in London and then dropped to a new session low of $1220.00 by early afternoon in New York, but it then bounced back higher into the close and ended with a loss of just 0.07%. Silver edged up to $14.489 before it dropped back to $14.23 and then also rebounded, but it still ended with a loss of 0.69%.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain with Oil 11/21 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold saw slight losses in early Asian trade, but it then rose to as high as $1230.10 by midmorning in New York and ended with a gain of 0.24%. Silver rose to as high as $14.554 and ended with a gain of 1.12%.
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has just published a new set of 'trading volume' data covering the London and Zurich over-the-counter (OTC) gold and silver markets. According to the new data, the equivalent of 939 tonnes of gold (30.2 million ounces) and the equivalent of 11,174 tonnes of silver (359.2 mullion ounces) is traded each day by LBMA member firms (such as market makers and banks) for settlement in these two markets (loco London / loco Zurich). This, says the LBMA means that gold is a US$ 36.9 billion per day market while silver is a US$ 5.2 billion per day market.
To put these trading volumes into perspective, only about 3200 tonnes of gold is mined globally each year, meaning that roughly every three and a half trading days, trading of 'gold' by LBMA members for 'settlement' in London or Zurich exceeds the amount of gold physically mined globally in an entire year. Likewise, given that total silver mined globally per year is in the region of 27,000 tonnes, LBMA members are trading more 'silver' every two and a half days than is mined in an entire year. Even comparing the LBMA daily trading volumes to total above ground stocks of gold (approximately 193,000 tonnes), shows the annual gold trading volumes in London and Zurich are greater than all the gold ever mined throughout history. For silver the figures are even more extreme with the London/Zurich figures exceeding known global stockpiles of silver (approximately 86,000 tonnes), every 8 trading days.
While the LBMA's new data is very high level and aggregated and does not do anything to lift the veil of secrecy lying over these markets, the magnitude of the trade volumes does prove whats been widely believed, i.e. that the OTC gold and silver markets operating mainly out of London by mainly LBMA bullion banks are trading predominantly unallocated and fractionally-backed synthetic positions on gold and silver and a lot less in the way of physical gold and silver.
Take for example any standard definition of trade reporting under MIFID, and you will see that what the LBMA is handing out to the market does not in the slightest meet the definition of trade reporting.
"Under MiFID II, investment firms are required to report basic details of their trades almost immediately, so that the information can be circulated in the market. The near real-time broadcasts of trade information is set to improve the transparency of pricing and offer greater insight into how prices are quoted and formed."
"trade reporting focuses on ensuring transparency and fairness in the market"
As you will see, the new data doesn't actually add transparency or market efficiency to the opaque and secretive London precious metals markets. By extension, this prevents proper price discovery for gold and silver prices. But first lets look at what the data does cover, and how the data that has just been published contains some surprises as to the size of the market.
Trade Reporting: Misleading Labels
The LBMA trade volume data comes in the form of a small downloadable Excel like table (csv file) that for each of gold and silver shows one week aggregated volume data in troy ounce equivalents for four product categories (spot, swap/forward, option, and loan/lease deposit) across different time periods from spot (now) through to 1 Year+. In the LBMA's words the report covers:
"Trade data for the previous week in Gold and Silver for all four asset classes (Spots, Swaps, Forwards and Options), broken down by date increments (buckets).
This aggregated volume data report (known as the Volume Report) covers the previous week (usually five business days) and going forward will be published by the LBMA at 9 am London time each Tuesday morning. The first week's volume data report covers the week commencing 12 November and looks as follows:
LBMA trade volume report for 'gold' and 'silver' traded loco London and loco Zurich, for week ending 16 November. Click to enlarge.
There is also a second LBMA report in the same format known as the 'Open Volume" report which claims to capture all 'open trades' across gold and silver. The first instance of this 'open volume' report cover trades 'accumulated from 5th November' onwards. Both reports can be downloaded at this page.
For example, for gold, if you take the final four 'troy ounce' totals in the right hand column and add them up, you get 151,002,465 ozs, which divided by five is 30,200,493 ozs, which is 939 tonnes. The US dollar equivalent figure is then derived by multiplying the troy ounce volume total (e.g. 30.2 million ounces) by the latest LBMA gold price per ounce prior to the report's publication, which in this case was US$ 1221.60 on 19 November, giving US$ 36.892 billion, which explains why the LBMA was quoting a market size of US$ 36.9 billion in its press release. Based on its report, 63% of gold trades were for spot trades, 31% for swaps/forwards, and the remaining 6% for options and loans/leases/deposits.
Similarly for silver, per the first report there were 1,796,281,067 ounces of silver 'traded' in a week, which when divided by five is 359,256,213 ozs or 11,174 tonnes. At a silver price of US$ 14.36 on 19 November, this trading had a value of US$ 5.159 billion, which the LBMA rounded up to US$ 5.2 billion in its press release. Based on its report, 59% of trades in silver were for spot, 36% for swaps/forwards, and the remaining 5% for options and loans/leases/deposits.
Currently, the trade volume data in the LBMA report is said to reflect trade reporting of 43 LBMA members including all 13 LBMA market makers. The market makers are all bullion banks, and contain names such as JP Morgan, HSBC, Goldman Sachs, SocGen, Morgan Stanley and UBS, The LBMA says that another 15 of its members will begin reporting trades to its database during January 2019, which would bring the total number of LBMA members reporting to 58.
Daily Trade Volume Date: But not just yet
As a reminder, the LBMA had promised 'trade reporting' data more than three years ago in the wake of the UK financial authorities' "Fair and Efficient Markets Review" initiative launched in 2014 in reaction to market manipulation of the UK's Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) markets and which called for an improvement of fairness and efficiency in those markets, including the wholesale London gold and silver markets.
As probably one of the longest running projects in the history of financial markets before any data was actually published (with the LBMA having launched a strategic review on 'trade reporting' in April 2015), it might be expected then that when the LBMA data was actually published it would be in a final and steady state. But as is often the case with the LBMA and its bullion bank members, they fudged the issue and for the next few months until at least sometime in Q1 2019, the above trade volume reports will contain a week's worth of trade volume data and will only be published once per week, and not on a daily basis. Again, this is not trade reporting, and its not even transaction reporting since under MIFID II transaction reporting carries a T+1 requirement, where T is transaction day, and 1 is next day.
So the LBMA after 3 years cannot even produce, or refuses to produce trade volume statistics on a T+1 basis, until sometime in Q1 2019. What are they hiding and why are the UK regulators allowing the London bullion market to be exempt from trade reporting and T+1 transaction reporting? Why after 3 years of planning and design and data gathering are 15 additional LBMA members only ready to supply data to the 'trade reporting' repository in January 2019 and not from the launch date in November 2018.
Given that all the data that goes into the report is readily available on a daily basis in the LBMA's trade reporting database, it yet again looks as if the LBMA is on the one hand claiming to be increasing transparency but on the other hand is reluctant to actually make this happen, as it does not yet want the market to be able to relate gold and silver price movements to specific trading volumes on those days that a daily report would reveal. The UK financial regulators (Treasury, Bank of England and UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) which conducted the FEMR review are also staying silent on the fact that whatever the LBMA is publishing as 'trade reporting' is certainly not trade reporting.
Trading volumes now mysteriously 82% lower than in 2011
One of the most puzzling facts about the new trading volume data is that the daily averages for gold in the London OTC gold market are a lot lower than was generally believed to be the case. For many years, the LBMA has each month produced clearing volume data which reflects the volumes of gold and silver trades 'cleared' through the London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (LPMCL) clearing platform 'Aurum'.
The conventional view in the market (and one even used by financial academics and the World Gold Council) was that trading volumes in the London OTC gold market were anywhere between seven to ten times higher than clearing volumes. This then allowed trading volumes to be estimated or projected using clearing volumes and a multiplier, of say 10. A multiplier of ten was itself something the LBMA actually stated when it conducted a trading volume survey of its members in Q1 2011. To quote the LBMA in its survey from 2011:
"It can also be seen that there is an approximately ten to one ratio between the turnover figures and the clearing statistics. It can be seen that spot transactions form the large majority of the total (around 90%), with forwards and other transactions each representing around 5%. The average daily trading volume in the London market in this period was 173,713,000 ounces or $240.8 billion"
But looking at the latest LBMA clearing trade volume data from 2018 implies a far far lower multiple than 10. Recent LBMA clearing statistics from September 2018 show that on a daily basis 18.9 million ounces of gold were cleared in London. Compare this to 30.2 million ounces traded per day (939 tonnes), and the multiple is only 1.6 and nowhere near 10.
Extract from the 2011 LBMA trade volume survey showing the far higher DAILY gold trading volumes in 2011 compared to 2018. Click to Enlarge
Not only that but current reported daily trading volume of 30.2 million ounces of gold for November 2018 is 82% lower than the daily trading volume of 173.7 million ounces of gold for Q 1 2011. How can this be? The 2011 trading survey was conducted on a voluntary basis and 36 'full members' of the LBMA at the time, including all market makers, responded to that survey.
The current trading volume data now in 2018 is based on trade data submitted by 42 LBMA members including all market makers. How can the daily trading volumes in 2011 based on the trades of 36 members (including all market makers) be nearly six times as large as the daily trading volumes in 2018 based on the trades of 42 members (including all market makers). Have large subsets of trades been excluded?
It was in a January 2015 letter to the Fair and Efficient Market Review (FEMR) at the Bank of England, where the LBMA stated that
"it is worth noting, that the role of the central banks in the bullion market may preclude ‘total’ transparency, at least at public level..."
Have these or other types of trades, such as sovereign trades been masked or filtered out of the trade volume data? There is no way of knowing unless the LBMA clarifies or else provides a full methodology of how it collects the data used to extract these aggregated trade volume figures.
The LBMA trade repository or reporting hub, named LBMA-i, into which LBMA member firms report their trade data, has a huge amount of trade data that the LBMA could report to the market if it so chose and wished to do so in the interests of market fairness and efficiency. There could be real trade reporting which as a reminder under MIFID takes the form of reporting "basic details of trades almost immediately, so that the information can be circulated in the market, to improve transparency of pricing".
There could be reporting by client type, such as miners, refiners, central banks, buyside institutions, banks etc, and reporting by trade rationale, e.g. ETF trades interbank trades, exchange for physicals, speculative trading, central bank gold deposits, physical consignment trades etc. In fact the options are practically endless for proper trade reporting when all of the data is in a database, as it is in the LBMA-i reporting hub.
But the LBMA has chosen not to provide any trade reporting at all, and the UK financial authorities have chosen to look the other way. The London gold and silver markets will therefore continue to operate in opacity and with a lack of market efficiency that proper trade reporting would have gone someway to improve.
Today is Saturday 24th November 2018 and we are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 23rd November.
Gold rose $2 last week from $1,221 to $1,223 having hit a high of $1,229 and a low of $1,218. In sterling terms gold finished the week at £954 that’s up £3 and in Euros it closed at 1,078 Euros that’s up 9 Euros on the week.
Silver fell 12 cents from $14.41 o $14.29 having hit a high of $14.55 and a low of $14.20. In sterling terms, it closed at £11.15 that’s down 8 pence and in Euros it closed at 12.60 euros that’s down 0.02 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio rose from 84.73:1 to 85.58:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 24,285 down 178 points on the day and down 1,128 points on the week; and the NASDAQ closed at 6938 down 33 points on the day and down 309 points on the week and the S&P 500 closed at 2,632 down 17 points on the day and down 104 points on the week.
Brent Crude fell $7.96 from $66.76 to $58.80 and US Light Crude fell $6.04 from $56.46 to $50.42
The dollar index stands at 96.91 that’s up 0.45 on the week and completely reverses the previous weeks fall.
What did concern us a little about last week was the 1,000 point fall on Wall Street and gold could barely keep its head above water closing up only $2. The Dollar index was more revealing in that it reversed the previous week’s loss and as we suggested all along, even if wall street falls, the dollar is still likely to strengthen in the short term. All eyes will be on the FED in December - the 19th to be precise - when we shall know if it will impose a further rate increase of 0.25%.
Silver followed a similar trend to gold except that it performed a little worse which is why the GSR rose again above 85:1. The trading range for silver last week was some 36 cents spread so once again we are not too excited about its movements. Like gold silver prices are currently heavily dependent on the strength or weakness of the US dollar however silver miners will have some relief in the quite considerable falls in oil prices recently which will serve, at least short term to reduce their mining costs.
So, let’s take a look at the economic news to be announced this coming week:
• On Tuesday we have the Consumer Confidence index for November
• On Wednesday GDP Growth for Q3 (previous quarter was 3.5% growth) plus new home sales for October
• Thursday a little more active – Personal Income figures, Consumer Spending, and Core Inflation figures, all for October plus the FOMC Minutes will be published.
So, Wednesday and Thursday are the days to look out for.
A number of conditions are in place to see gold and silver rise, yet those opposing conditions are dominating and frankly surplus monies are going into the US dollar even when stock-markets take a slight hammering. Will this trend continue? We think so for a while. Its also worth noting that traditionally gold and silver prices tend to fall in late November, December and whilst this is not cast in stone, there is little reason to suggest why this may not be so again this year.
Today is Monday 26th November 2018 and we are just alerting you briefly to keep an eye on what is happening in Mexico.
Fears that Incoming President Andres Obrador may oversee the tightening of regulations on the mining industry in Mexico which include:
• empowering the Ministry of Economy to declare certain zones as not viable for mining
• revoking permits and existing concessions that have a negative social impact
Last week Morgan Stanley downgraded mining stocks on concerns that Mexico’s new congress is considering as many as 11 bills or resolutions that could materially impact mining companies operating in the country.
The first nine bills tabled in congress could impact Mexican miners’ Ebitda, Fresnillo, Penoles and Grupo Mexico according to the Morgan Stanley report.
These companies each lost between 4 and 12% of their stock-market value and Fresnillo, which is listed in London, saw its biggest decline in five years.
The implications for silver prices are initially difficult to ascertain until more details are known as to the likelihood of these bills passing. However, the implication seems pretty clear - Mexico being the largest silver mine production country producing approximately 5,600 Metric tonnes per annum or practically 20% of global mine production, clearly signifies that any barriers to production will only prove positive for the price longer term.
Much clearly depends on the extent to which these companies are directly affected, but those considering investing in mining stocks should be especially cautious but also mindful that markets do tend to ‘overdo’ bad news and so potential buying opportunities can exist if the run on stocks is overdone.
We must of course balance this with other countries and companies gradually increasing their output, especially if they are able to lower their costs should lower oil prices persist. However if these regulations do come into force and are adopted elsewhere, then that would have quite a positive impact on the Silver price.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Fall Nearly 1% 11/27 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold edged up to $1225.20 by a little after 8AM EST before it fell back to $1212.00 in early afternoon New York trade and then bounced back higher, but it still ended with a loss of 0.61%. Silver chopped between $14.305 and $14.098 and ended with a loss of 0.77%.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Jump on Powell Remarks 11/28 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold dropped back to $1211.20 by a little after 9AM EST before it jumped up to $1226.30 in early afternoon trade and then pared back into the close, but it still ended with a gain of 0.43%. Silver dipped to $14.119 in Asia before it rose to as high as $14.389 in New York and then also fell back off a bit, but it still ended with a gain of 1.2%.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold Gains Ahead of G20 11/29 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold gained $8.70 to $1228.90 by late morning in New York before it drifted lower in afternoon trade, but it still ended with a gain of 0.3%. Silver chopped near unchanged and ended with a loss of 0.07%.