Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver End Slightly Lower on the Week 11/30 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold fell $7.20 to $1216.70 by midmorning in New York, but it then rallied back higher for most of the rest of trade and ended with a loss of just 0.18%. Silver slipped to as low as $14.052 before it also rebounded, but it still ended with a loss of 0.91%.
Today is Saturday 1st December 2018 and we are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 30th November.
Gold fell $1 last week from $1,223 to $1,222 having hit a high of $1,227 and a low of $1,211. In sterling terms gold finished the week at £958 that’s up £4 and in Euros it closed at 1,079 Euros that’s up 1 Euros on the week.
Silver fell 12 cents from $14.29 to $14.17 having hit a high of $14.43 and a low of $14.06. In sterling terms, it closed at £11.11 that’s down 4 pence and in Euros it closed at 12.52 euros that’s down 0.08 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio rose from 85.6:1 to 86.2:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 25,538 up 199 points on the day and up 1,253 points on the week, and the NASDAQ closed at 7,330 up 57 points on the day and up 392 points on the week and the S&P 500 closed at 2,760 up 22 points on the day and up 128 points on the week. All indices more than reversing their previous week’s fall.
Brent Crude rose 66 cents from $58.80 to $59.46 and US Light Crude rose 51 cents from $50.42 to $50.93
The dollar index stands at 97.27 that’s up 0.36 on the week.
We ended last week’s video with the words : “A number of conditions are in place to see gold and silver rise, yet those opposing conditions are dominating and frankly surplus monies are going into the US dollar even when stock-markets take a slight hammering. Will this trend continue? We think so for a while. It’s also worth noting that traditionally gold and silver prices tend to fall in late November, December and whilst this is not cast in stone, there is little reason to suggest why this may not be so again this year.”
Well admittedly this past week has seen little change save the momentum slightly to the downside. However, both the highs and lows for gold and silver in US dollar terms were lower than the previous week and this should be noted and followed over the next few weeks.
Last week gold had a slight roller coaster ride with prices hitting week’s lows on Wednesday only to strongly recover again on Jerome Powell’s (The FED Chair’s) rather dovish statement that rates were ‘close to neutral’. However, Friday we could see investors re-investing in the dollar ahead of the G20 meeting this weekend particularly the important trade talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi.
Technical traders particularly using daily swing charts can see some upside if the gold prices exceeds $1227 topping out at or around $1,236 and downside if it falls below current levels to around $1,213. Frankly this is only of use to technical traders dealing in reasonable amounts. For the majority of us who are buying physical, the message is that perhaps there is going to be little serious movement from current levels, though our focus is a little more down than up, especially since the FED is still potentially determined to raise rates in December and this is not yet factored in.
The COT report shows Producers twice short than long, swap dealers 50% more long than short, and managed money almost twice short than long, the latter having reduced their long position and increased their short positions.
Silver proved weaker last week than gold. It started once again to head down towards that critical floor of $14 and any further dollar strengthening will certainly see it fall below that figure. On the upside we have resistance at $14.50 and phenomenal resistance at $15.
So all of those youtubers who keep telling you its about to rise significantly, frankly they can just be ignored – short of the dollar collapsing, there is absolutely no fundamental reason for that to happen. It is solely a dollar play – nothing is happening Industrially to prefer silver above current consumption levels and so for those who want to see silver going above $16 or $17 this year – you had better start taking out your prayer mats as its not going to happen and anyone who tells you differently is either financially illiterate or is trying to deceive you.
The COT report for silver is showing Producers holding 2.5 times more shorts than long, Swap dealers holding long vs short on a 3:2 basis and Managed money being 80% more short than long.
So, let’s take a look at the economic news to be announced this coming week:
• On Monday we have the Markit Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index for November
• On Tuesday Motor vehicle sales
• On Wednesday Q3 productivity figures plus Markit services PMI and ISM Non manufacturing Index
• Thursday, we have the trade deficit figures for October so we shall see how well President Trumps tariff policy is panning out
• and on Friday the all-important Nonfarm payrolls for November plus Consumer sentiment index for Nov and Consumer Credit figures for October.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Rise Roughly 1% 12/03 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold gained $13.10 to $1234.80 by late morning in New York before it drifted back lower into the close, but it still ended with a gain of 0.74%. Silver rose to as high as $14.555 and ended with a gain of 1.41%.
What Is Mr. Palladium Telling Us? 12/04 By: Craig Hemke
Copper is often referred to as "Dr. Copper" for its ability to foreshadow moves in other markets and the global economy in general. Today we coin the term "Mr. Palladium", as this particular metal may be offering its own bit of foreshadowing. And what might that be? Perhaps the end of the entire LBMA/COMEX Digital Derivative and Fractional Reserve Pricing Scheme.
Today is Tuesday 4th December 2018 and we are stating our reasons why Gold and Silver may continue to rise in sterling terms over the next couple of weeks.
On Sunday 9th December, Conservative British Prime Minister Theresa May will debate with Labour Party Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbin on BBC TV at 8pm GMT the details of her proposed BREXIT Deal which many of the original BREXITEERS are unhappy with, and has already led to a number of cabinet resignations.
This debate is essentially to give her a last-minute opportunity to try and test her arguments for public consumption prior to an essential House of Commons Vote on the proposed arrangement that her Government has in principle agreed with the EU - which falls far short of what the architects of the “OUT” campaign had envisaged.
The House of Commons vote is to take place on Tuesday 11th December, prior to which, the House of Commons will have 5 days of debate on her compromise Brexit deal.
Most polls are currently showing that she will lose the vote, and this is where the difficulty truly begins. If she wins the vote, then it would be full steam ahead to exit the EU on 29th March 2019.
If she loses, then a number of things could occur:
1. She could go back to the EU and attempt to refine the deal – however the EU has stated that it would not budge any further
2. She could turn around to the EU and ask for more time to negotiate a further deal i.e. delay Brexit – we are not convinced she would get away with that.
3. Her own Party could call for a vote of no confidence via the Conservative Party 1922 Committee, and if she loses that vote, a new leader and Prime Minister will be elected – but if that were to happen that new leader would more than likely be a Hard Brexit person such as Ian Duncan Smith, Boris Johnston or David Davies.
4. She could win the Vote of no confidence and then potentially call a General Election to resolve the matter once and for all – but there is very little time available to achieve this and if her Party lost that election and the Labour Party were to win, they may arrange a new Referendum on Brexit, which they believe the ‘Remainers’ will win.
5. If she wins she may call for a new Referendum herself asking 3 questions of the general public – To Remain, A Hard Brexit or her negotiated deal.
6. She could do what David Cameron did and resign and leave the Country and Party in chaos.
Although the options seem plentiful, the reality is that if British Prime Minister loses the vote on Tuesday chaos will be the order of the day. We have already seen the price of gold rise by £70 per ounce in the past 4 weeks, though it has been little moved in US dollar terms, thereby reflecting the current weakness of sterling and this will no doubt continue, until these matters are finally resolved.
The irony is, that for markets to remain calm she has to win on Tuesday, however in doing so, she will have achieved a ‘soft Brexit’ or ‘compromise Brexit’ which is something that the hard and fast Brexiteers will brand a betrayal of the British people’s vote.
Until then, uncertainty dominates, and we foresee precious metal prices in sterling terms holding up if actually not rising a little further yet, and if the vote is lost, then do not be surprised to see another 5% -10% rise in precious metals shortly after – in sterling terms that is.
Published on Dec 5, 2018
What's next for the Gold, Silver & Broader Markets in 2019. This video discusses the fundamentals and technical analysis of the market indicators of the markets this year and what is in store for 2019.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Hold Steady While Stocks Remain Volatile 12/06 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold chopped near unchanged in low volume trade yesterday before it fell back to $1234.90 in Asia today and then climbed up to a new session high of $1244.30 by midmorning in New York, but it then drifted back lower into the close and ended with a gain of just 0.01% from Tuesday’s close. Silver slipped to as low as $14.351 and ended with a loss of 0.28%.
Today is Saturday 8th December 2018 and we are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 7th December.
Gold rose $26 last week from $1,222 to $1248 having hit a high of $1,250 and a low of $1,221. In sterling terms gold finished the week at £980 that’s up £22 and in Euros it closed at 1,096 Euros that’s up 17 Euros on the week.
Silver rose 45 cents from $14.17 to $14.62 having hit a high of $14.66 and a low of $14.17. In sterling terms, it closed at £11.48 that’s up 37 pence and in Euros it closed at 12.84 euros that’s up 0.32 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio fell from 86.2:1 to 85.3:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 24,388 down 558 points on the day and down 1150 points on the week, and the NASDAQ closed at 6,969 down 219 points on the day and down 361 points on the week and the S&P 500 closed at 2,633 down 62 points on the day and down 127 points on the week.
Brent Crude rose $2.21 from $59.46 to $61.67 and US Light Crude rose $1.68 from $50.93 to $52.61
The dollar index stands at 96.51 that’s down 0.76 on the week.
On Friday there was a smaller than expected Non-farm Payrolls Report announced. Anticipated were 190,000 – 200,000 new jobs whereas the reality was 155,000, and to add wood to the fire, the October jobs report which accounted for 250,000 new jobs was downgraded to 237,000. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% against an envisaged 0.3% and on Thursday the Trade deficit figures showed a deficit of $55.5 billion against an expected $55.1bn
So, let’s take a look at the economic news to be announced this coming week:
• On Tuesday we have November’s Producer Price index
• On Wednesday Consumer Price Index, Core CPI and the Federal Budget announcement all for November.
• Thursday, we have the Import price index
• and on Friday Retail Sales, and Industrial Production for November.
So, we have to ask ourselves – since the dollar is the important determinant on gold and silver prices, what are the influences that are likely to bear upon it.
Well we have to take into account a rather dovish tone from the FED on interest rates, lower than envisaged new jobs created, lower core inflation than predicted and worries over domestic and International trade levels. Add to the mix possible increasing upset with China and the holding of Meng Wanzhou of Huawei by Canada on behalf of the US with China threatening retaliation, and further revelations of the Mueller probe – none of this auguring very well for stability and confidence.
So, we can see gold and silver continuing to rise a little short term but are of the opinion that we are still operating within this relatively tight band of $1 for silver and $100 for gold. All of which, to some degree will be sorted on 19th December when we shall see what the FED decides to do about interest rates.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Lower 12/10 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold saw slight gains in Asia before it fell back to $1243.50 by a little after 8AM EST and then bounced back higher in morning New York trade, but it then fell back off again into the close and with a loss of 0.33%. Silver slipped to as low as $14.478 and ended with a loss of 0.75%
Silver Investors See Palladium as the “Canary in the Coal Mine”
Monday, December 10th
The precious metals sector has just one standout performer this year, and that is palladium. Lately the market for that metal has gotten more than just hot. Developments there could have implications for the LBMA and the rickety fractional reserve system of inventory underpinning all of the physical precious metals markets.
Palladium Reaches Gold Price, Makes All-Time High
Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report was Money Metals’ podcast guest this past Friday. He has been watching the developments in palladium closely and gave an excellent summary of what's involved.
Palladium prices went parabolic once before. The price went from under $400 per ounce to $1,100/oz from late 1999 to early 2001. Then, just as quickly, the price crashed back below $400.
Palladium's move higher in recent months is reminiscent. It remains to be seen whether or not a price collapse will follow. Some of the underlying drivers are the same, some are not.
Russia May Not Save the Palladium Markets This Time
Today, as in 2001, Russia is the world’s largest producer of the metal. Mines there contribute about 40% of the world supply.
The shortage 17 years ago was driven by demand. Automobile and truck manufacturers began using more of the metal in catalytic converters. It was a lower cost alternative to platinum.
When the market ran into shortage, Russians, under President Boris Yeltsin, rode to the rescue. They were willing and able to bring more physical metal to market.
The added supply turned the market around just in the nick of time. The LBMA and bullion banks got away with selling way more paper palladium than they could actually deliver.
Today, palladium inventory is once again in short supply. This time around, however, the paper sellers in London and in the COMEX may find themselves at the mercy of Vladimir Putin.
Russian relations aren't what they were in 2001. Palladium users may not get the same rescue as before, assuming Russian miners have stockpiles to deliver.
The bullion banks’ problem is starting to look serious.
For one thing, the lease rates for palladium have gone berserk. Bullion bankers and other short sellers often lease metal to hand over to counterparties standing for delivery on a contract. Until very recently, they could get that metal for less than one percent cost. Last week, that rate spiked to 22%.
That is extraordinarily expensive, and it reflects the scarcity of physical palladium. The only reason a banker might pay such a rate is because he is over the barrel and has zero options outside of defaulting on his obligation.
Severe Shortages Lead to High Lease Rates, Backwardation
In conjunction with the surge in lease rates, the palladium market has moved into backwardation. It costs significantly more to buy metal on contracts offering delivery in the near future than it does to buy contracts with a longer maturation.
Normally the opposite is true when it comes to the precious metals. Investors buying a contract normally pay a premium to have the certainty of a fixed price today for metal to be delivered sometime well down the road.
Investors are paying big premiums (about $100/oz currently) to get contacts with offering metal for delivery now. The near-term price reflects a concern over whether promises to deliver palladium months from now can even be met.
Is the Palladium Situation a Dress Rehearsal for Gold & Silver?
Gold and silver bugs have long expected the bullion bankers will eventually put themselves in this kind of bind with the monetary metals. They have sold contracts representing something on the order of 100 ounces for every ounce of actual gold or silver sitting in exchange vaults.
That much leverage is bound to end in catastrophe, someday. All it will take is a collapse in confidence – the suspicion that paper will not and cannot be convertible for actual metal.
A failure to deliver in the relatively tiny palladium market could be the “canary in the coal mine” – a warning to investors in other precious metals. If there is a failure to deliver in LBMA palladium, it could shake confidence in the much larger markets for gold and silver.
The developing shortage in the silver market suggests that silver could be the next situation, followed by gold.
Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 "Dealer of the Year" in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, Siegner puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals' brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs. SilverSeek.com
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Close Mixed with Stocks 12/11 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold gained $5.20 to $1249.50 in London before it chopped back down to $1241.10 by midafternoon in New York, but it then bounced back higher into the close and ended with a loss of 0.1%. Silver rose to as high as $14.719 before it dropped back to $14.516, but it then rallied back higher in late trade and ended with a gain of 0.21%.
Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain with Stocks 12/12 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold chopped up to $1247.10 at about 1PM EST before it fell back off into midafternoon, but it then rallied back higher into the close and ended with a gain of 0.23%. Silver rose to as high as $14.794 and ended with a gain of 1.31%.
Silver and Gold are Looking Good in 2019 - w/ Peter Hug Silver Fortune
Published on Dec 12, 2018
Interview with Peter Hug, Global Director of trading at Kitco.
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Published on Dec 13, 2018
Hey everyone, thanks for tuning in. Today I'm going over some basic fundamental and technical analysis regarding the price forecast of #gold and #silver heading into 2019. Enjoy!
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Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Trade Mixed with Stocks 12/13 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold held near unchanged in Asia before it dipped to $1240.30 in early New York trade and then bounced back higher at times, but it still ended with a loss of 0.24%. Silver chopped between $14.805 and $14.684 and ended with a gain of 0.2%.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has refused to reply to or even to acknowledge GATA's questions about manipulation of the gold and silver futures markets that are purportedly regulated by the commission.
By letters in July and September, GATA asked the commission to explain the explosion in the use of the "exchange for physicals" mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodity Exchange; to determine whether gold futures prices had been linked by the Chinese government's manipulative trading to the value of the yuan; and whether the commission has jurisdiction over manipulative futures trading by the U.S. government itself.
Having gone months without any acknowledgment from the commission, GATA asked your secretary/treasurer's U.S. representative, John B. Larson, Democrat of Connecticut's 1st District, to press the commission to reply, which his office did several times.
Today Larson's office forwarded a copy of a letter put into the mail to GATA yesterday by the commission's director of legislative affairs, N. Charles Thornton III. But Thorton's reply is little more than a form letter, outlining the commission's general objectives and purposes. Thornton makes no reference to GATA's questions:
Ordinarily a response so vapid could be considered insulting, but it fairly may be taken as confirmation that the U.S. government and other governments are surreptitiously rigging commodity markets, as has been strongly suggested by the official filings of CME Group, operator of the New York Commodities Exchange and other commodities exchanges in the United States. These filings report that governments and central banks are among the exchange operator's clients and receive discounts from the exchanges for their secret trading of all commodity futures contracts:
GATA's correspondence with the CFTC shows how easy it is to demonstrate government instigation of or complicity with market manipulation. Since demonstrating this is so easy, the bigger challenge is to persuade mainstream financial news organizations to pursue the issue and to persuade commodity-producing companies and their investors to agitate against it.
You can help by bringing GATA's work to their attention and urging them to act.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
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Help keep GATA going
GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at: http://www.gata.org
To contribute to GATA, please visit: http://www.gata.org/node/16
Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Less Than 1% on the Week 12/14 By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report
Gold fell $9.90 to $1233.00 by a little after 9:30AM EST before it climbed back towards unchanged by midday, but it then drifted back lower into the close and ended with a loss of 0.37%. Silver slipped to as low as $14.493 and ended with a loss of 1.29%.
Today is Saturday 15th December 2018 and we are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 14th December.
Gold fell $10 last week from $1248 to $1,238 having hit a high of $1,250 and a low of $1,233. In sterling terms gold finished the week at £983 that’s up £3 and in Euros it closed at 1,095 Euros that’s down 1 Euro on the week.
Silver fell 5 cents from $14.62 to $14.57 having hit a high of $14.80 and a low of $14.48. In sterling terms, it closed at £11.58 that’s up 9 pence and in Euros it closed at 12.89 euros that’s up 0.05 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio fell from 85.3:1 to 85:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 24,100 down 496 points on the day and down 288 points on the week, and the NASDAQ closed at 6,910 down 159 points on the day and down 59 points on the week and the S&P 500 closed at 2,599 down 50 points on the day and down 34 points on the week.
Brent Crude fell $1.39 from $61.67 to $60.28 and US Light Crude fell $1.41 from $52.61 to $51.20
The dollar index stands at 97.44 that’s up 0.93 on the week.
So, what have we got on the economic agenda this week? Well its an important one for sure.
• On Monday we have the Home Builders Index for December
• On Tuesday Housing starts and Building permits for November
• On Wednesday and the most important day we have the FOMC announcement on interest rates and projections and a statement by the FED Chair Jerome Powell.
• Thursday, we have the Import price index
• and on Friday GDP revision for Q3 Personal income, consumer spending and core inflation for November.
So once again Wednesday and Friday are the two important days to note, though we suspect that the FED is likely to have knowledge of Friday’s figures in advance and so the decision they make on interest rates is likely to guide us to Friday’s figures.
So, this week, its all eyes on the FED and whichever action it takes we can expect gold and silver markets to respond. Will we break out of that $100 gold and $1 silver box, its quite possible, but it is dependent, and lets not forget this, it is dependent, on the value of the US Dollar.
We have fallen behind slightly on some of our Inner sanctum videos which will be corrected this coming week. Also over the weekend we are uploading a number of new videos and programs for download one of which is centred around blockchain technology and our JP Morgan series will also be published.
We have added some ‘push notifications’ software which hopefully will alert you to any new additions to the site if you agree to accept them – please let us know how effectively that works – it is costing us money to use it, so we are hoping that it works effectively and so will welcome your feedback.
I have invested in palladium from time to time in the past. I just dabbled a bit here and there but the market now just seems crazy. In case you haven’t been watching lately palladium has exceeded the price of gold!
Palladium (Pd) is a by product of nickel, copper and zinc refining usually. It is mainly used for catalytic converters. It is sometimes alloyed with gold to form white gold. Other uses are in ceramic capacitors for electronic devises and for the purification of hydrogen gas.
Palladium is almost always cheaper than platinum. A quick search of the Pt : Pd ratio shows that in the last 30 years or so there was only a short period around 2000 when palladium was more expensive. The ratio now is around 0.63 which is quite odd and close to a 30 year low of about 0.5. (The Pt : Pd ratio has averaged around 2.5 for the past 30 years.)
Palladium is normally cheaper than gold as well. Recently it has gone above the price of gold which again is quite unusual.
Platinum (Pt) is also a by product of nickel and copper. South Africa produces 80% of the world supply followed by Russia, Zimbabwe and the US. It is also used for catalytic converters, jewelry and industrial uses.
In most instances palladium is used in catalytic converters whenever platinum gets too expensive. Generally platinum can be used as jewelry or an industrial metal whereas palladium is normally used as an industrial metal.
The run up in palladium does not seem to make much sense. It would seem that now may be a good time to take profits in palladium which is selling at a historical high in relation to platinum and gold and reinvest in platinum which is selling at a historical low in relation to palladium and gold.
Just looking at the ratios now it would seem that swapping palladium for platinum is a smart move.
Swapping some of your gold for platinum also seems like a good trade here as well.
Everything moves in cycles. Selling at the top and buying at the bottom is the way to turn a profit. The biggest problem is they never ring a bell at the exact top or the exact bottom. Swapping, however, allows you to always hold a position without cashing out of the game entirely.
Look at the charts yourself. This one looks pretty easy to read. As always, do your due diligence before making any trade.
Larry sells precious metals at the Silver Trading Company, LLC. Visit us at www.silvertrading.net . Worried about storage issues? Ask us and maybe we can help.