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Gold-Silver Ratio 2021 Edition

BigJim#1-8

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the_shootist

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BigJim#1-8

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Nomis Elpmis

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Bitcoin'ers booking their profits in AU before it sells off..:winks2:
 

BigJim#1-8

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BigJim#1-8

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BigJim#1-8

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BigJim#1-8

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savvydon

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Under 70 this morning. Nice little eruption for silver.
 

solarion

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GSR = 69.79 presently. ...look out below!
 

BigJim#1-8

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solarion

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solarion

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Gold is continuing to melt down relative to little brother pre New York open...though it(Au) has at least stopped bleeding relative to the scheiss dollar.

GSR = 66.84 Au up 0.96% Ag up 1.84% in the pre-market...uh market.
 

Pyramid

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Looking to potentially trade out some feinsilber for gold when it gets to a predetermined GSR number? Maybe also take a look at the PSR (Platinum to Silver ratio) as well, as it's near an all time low for the past ~25 years. See chart at link below. That is, if you believe in the growth potential of Pt (I do) and wish to diversify the stack and/or reduce some Ag weight in exchange for other PM's. Good luck out there folks.

https://www.bullionbypost.com/price-ratio/platinum/silver/alltime/
 

BigJim#1-8

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Do you guys have personal targets to swap your AG into more AU?

Has anyone been successful over the longterm trading back and fourth to acquire more metal essentially for free?
 

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Do you guys have personal targets to swap your AG into more AU?

Has anyone been successful over the longterm trading back and fourth to acquire more metal essentially for free?

I bought 5 RCM 100's back in 2019. The ratio was 95:1 and then I traded 4 of them a couple months later for 4 gold eagles and 1/2 krugerrand and some cash. But the premiums were much lower on both gold and silver.

I had to sell some gold a month or 2 prior to get my home ready for sale. I had over shot the mark and sold too much so when I went to buy back gold, silver was screaming buy me! But I could not hold all of them long term due to the move later in the year. It was much easier transporting the gold eagles than the RCM 100's.

But to answer your first question; that's difficult to do sometimes. Like last March I knew damn well silver (and platinum) were too undervalued when the paper price dropped. But that's just it. The paper price. Premiums soared like they had in 2008. When premiums warrant it yes, they can make for good trades.

Should the GSR make it into the 30's, it's time to consider trading silver for gold. I intend to trade my generic stack when that happens and I bought all of that portion specifically for that reason.
 

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Back in March, 2020, I was looking to trade gold for silver. I recall that gold was about $1,500 and silver spot price had collapsed to approximately $12.50 very quickly. Could not find a shop with any silver on hand other than a couple that wanted about $18 per ounce for the silver (huge premiums just like today.)
So, the actual trade would have been about 83 to 1, rather than 100 to 1, or better. Maybe I should have traded anyway, but hindsight is always 20-20.

I am assuming that we are all waiting for the anomalies to occur where the spot price of gold goes down fast, while silver price is increasing (or vice-versa) and we can catch a good trade. But, the dealers won't sell their inventory at the new low numbers and lose money on the way down. The inventory goes into hiding in the vault or the premiums increase significantly to compensate, blocking my ability to take advantage of the trade.

Over the past 20 years, the average gold/silver ratio was about 60 to 1. I have often considered that trading gold for silver at 80 to 1, then wait for 40 to 1 to trade back would be ideal. Double my gold stack on 2 trades, but this is unrealistic because it would take about 20 years to complete the cycle and it will be difficult to find the other party to take my trade at the opportune time.

So, now I am wondering if trading AU for AG at 70, then back again at 50 is realistic. Pick up 40% on two trades with a shorter time span.

Who knows? As soon as I think I have a plan all figured out, somebody changes the rules.
 

southfork

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Bastards still hitting silver
 

solarion

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Bastards still hitting silver
Meanwhile Apmex seemingly has some eagles back in stock. ...with a $14 premium. Gee...only 152% of spot? Thanks!

Amusing that every metal is up...except silver.

1612992782412.png
 
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CrimsonGuardJay

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I remember that. I couldnt find silver anywhere. So I bought a fuckton of SLV and made out like the proverbial bandit.


Back in March, 2020, I was looking to trade gold for silver. I recall that gold was about $1,500 and silver spot price had collapsed to approximately $12.50 very quickly. Could not find a shop with any silver on hand other than a couple that wanted about $18 per ounce for the silver (huge premiums just like today.)
So, the actual trade would have been about 83 to 1, rather than 100 to 1, or better. Maybe I should have traded anyway, but hindsight is always 20-20.

I am assuming that we are all waiting for the anomalies to occur where the spot price of gold goes down fast, while silver price is increasing (or vice-versa) and we can catch a good trade. But, the dealers won't sell their inventory at the new low numbers and lose money on the way down. The inventory goes into hiding in the vault or the premiums increase significantly to compensate, blocking my ability to take advantage of the trade.

Over the past 20 years, the average gold/silver ratio was about 60 to 1. I have often considered that trading gold for silver at 80 to 1, then wait for 40 to 1 to trade back would be ideal. Double my gold stack on 2 trades, but this is unrealistic because it would take about 20 years to complete the cycle and it will be difficult to find the other party to take my trade at the opportune time.

So, now I am wondering if trading AU for AG at 70, then back again at 50 is realistic. Pick up 40% on two trades with a shorter time span.

Who knows? As soon as I think I have a plan all figured out, somebody changes the rules.
 

D-FENZ

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Do you guys have personal targets to swap your AG into more AU?

Has anyone been successful over the longterm trading back and fourth to acquire more metal essentially for free?
I would start easing out of silver and into gold at about 50 or below and be 100% silver anywhere above 75. YMMV. The big move lately above 100 was very unusual and most swappers, myself included, missed a lot of it by having swapped out of gold long before. The low to mid-30s 10 years ago was a rare but sweet gift. And always, always have a look at the ratios before deciding on which metal to buy for any new purchases.

Another key is- and I think you hit it maybe without realizing it is- long term. The swaps can take many years to fully develop but you have to be ready for them because they can also develop pretty quickly sometimes. The best way to be ready is to have a good relationship with a trusted local dealer. And maybe your dealer won't have the inventory to do a full swap at the exact time you are ready but you have to make the deal and take yours in. If you have to, tell the dealer to just write a check for your material as a marker that you will not cash. Give it back to him when he has your swap in, even if you have to wait for it. Something along those lines. Trust is important and goes both ways.

The wild card lately is the spread on the premiums and could seriously cut into your swap if you are having to pay a big premium but getting offered spot or less on your material. But that is where a good relationship with your dealer becomes even more important. It also helps if you're in a state where they aren't charging sales tax which can also be a big deal. Paying 5-8% on both sides of your round-turn can easily be a deal breaker.

As to being successful at it. Yes. And hugely so over the last 10 years with several swaps. I can honestly say that I have traded for more metal than I have actually purchased, and by a long shot. Double anything a couple of times...
 

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Do you guys have personal targets to swap your AG into more AU?
I think in last years thread there was a chart where to swap back and forth. If played right a person could trade back and forth and end up with more but it moves slow generally. The latest premiums make it harder also.
 

BigJim#1-8

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I think in last years thread there was a chart where to swap back and forth. If played right a person could trade back and forth and end up with more but it moves slow generally. The latest premiums make it harder also.
The Chart should be a sticky.
1613011734308.png
 

Uglytruth

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That's the one! Thanks Big Jim :thumbs up 2::thumbs up 2:
 

Uglytruth

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Anyone want to do a spread sheet on how starting with a set amount say 10 oz au & 100 oz ag and how one could play that over the last 10-20 years? Initial price, trade in value with someone like APMEX or even a local coin shop & the results. Maybe we are all missing the boat on stacking & should be trading.
 

solarion

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Anyone want to do a spread sheet on how starting with a set amount say 10 oz au & 100 oz ag and how one could play that over the last 10-20 years? Initial price, trade in value with someone like APMEX or even a local coin shop & the results. Maybe we are all missing the boat on stacking & should be trading.
Given the ridiculously cheap price of silver relative to gold over the past two decades, there wouldn't be much swapping, and you'd instead have silver stacks nearly continuously. Possible swaps from silver to gold in 2011 and back to silver from gold in 2016. That's with triggers at GSR readings of 30 and 80 you'd have been in silver 15 out of 20 of those years. ...and that assumes you could find a trading partner in 2011 when the GSR briefly touched neared 30. Else it'd be 20 years of holding onto white copper.

1613017220929.png


Amazing given America's bi-metallic history. The Romans fixed the GSR nearer to 12 : 1 and the US set it at 15 :1 via the coinage act of 1792. By 1913 that ratio had fallen to 10.7 : 1 and by 1940 that ratio was forcibly pushed, by FDR(the traitor), to near 100 : 1 via executive order(confiscation). Today the US Mint implies a GSR of 50 to 1 by comparing stamping of gold vs silver eagles, though admittedly it's a bit off as the gold eagle is only 90%. Both of these metals are horribly suppressed relative to fiat IMO, but silver is far more so.

Release. The. Kraken!

1613083725592.png
 
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<SLV>

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I think the silver squeeze is starting to show up. Noticed that gold has been slightly red the last few days while silver is slightly green. We are at 66.6:1 now.

The 10% pop last Monday was the earthquake, and the tsunami will be delivery (and options expiry between now and April).
 

917601

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I think the silver squeeze is starting to show up. Noticed that gold has been slightly red the last few days while silver is slightly green. We are at 66.6:1 now.

The 10% pop last Monday was the earthquake, and the tsunami will be delivery (and options expiry between now and April).
I read www.jsmineset for Comex contracts daily, but have seen no large delivery orders. Question, where do industrial companies, private mints, US mint, acquire the silver to manufacture their rounds, bars, coins....? I believe they are buying their silver from other sources so as to not effect corrupted paper Comex prices. Anyone have ideas?